A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

[Sir Puntalot]

Ideally, I like 4 home and 4 away matches to judge these on, but I'll put them up after 1 of each and you can see them take shape from then on. ;)

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
27/10/2006	New Zealand Knights	22.60 v 38.50	Melbourne Victory	-15.90	1.02	1.02	1.05	1x2	OU
27/10/2006	Sydney	31.75 v 47.25	Perth Glory	-15.50	1.40	-	-	1x2	OU
27/10/2006	Queensland Roar	76.50 v 38.40	Central Coast Mariners	+38.10	2.00	3.10	2.10	1x2	OU
27/10/2006	Newcastle Jets	42.00 v 29.00	Adelaide United	+13.00	-	3.10	1.80	1x2	OU

Please ignore the odds, centrebet etc...don't update their odds quick enough so these will be distorted betfair odds.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Ratings Table

Home	Away
Team Rating Queensland Roar 77.00 Adelaide United 59.00 Melbourne Victory 53.00 Perth Glory 51.00 Newcastle Jets 42.00 Central Coast Mariners 37.00 Sydney 32.00 New Zealand Knights 23.00	Team Rating Perth Glory 47.00 Sydney 46.00 Newcastle Jets 45.00 Melbourne Victory 39.00 Central Coast Mariners 38.00 Queensland Roar 38.00 New Zealand Knights 33.00 Adelaide United 29.00

[888]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 nice ratings there Paul :ok However, I'm just wondering how did you rate the team ? Like what kind of point system you use to make those ratings ? i.e based on Home - Away records or score line or ?

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 I've never revealed exactly how I rate them, but they are based on attacking play. Their home ratings will be completely different to their away ratings as I don't believe you can mix the two. :ok

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Thanx for taking the time to create some A League figures Paul :ok The ratings probably correspond well to the way teams have been attacking. Queensland and Perth had had the most shots in the League but they don't convert as often as Melbourne and Sydney. Melbourne sit 6th for Goals per Shot and they have had 98 shots for 19 goals, so a goal every 5 shots more or less. Sydney sit 7th with 95 shots for 15 goals, a goal every 7 shots or so. Perth(145) have had 47 more shots than Melbourne but have only scored 10 goals, a goal around every 14 shots or so. And Perth have lost 3 from 4 games away, and two of them by 3-0 margins. If Perth are rated highly for their attacking play then if they can get hold of a good finisher then it might see them improve their strike rate. Melbourne are 3rd and 4th in each of your tables and sit 8 points clear on the League Ladder, but they have not been that attacking, in fact they only had 4 shots on the weekend against Sydney but scored 2 goals to win it. Either Melbourne is extremely efficient or they are simply taking their chances as they are scoring one goal every 5 shots. If that figure starts to drop then so might Melbourne, but it's been steady in 9 games so far scoring a goal every 5 shots. Interesting to see the Knights above Adelaide on the away ratings, but Adelaide have only scored the one goal away from home this season, and that was the win against Melbourne at Telstra Dome, whereas the knights scored 2 away against Adelaide last week. Melbourne and Sydney have both had under 100 shots in 9 rounds but they sit first and second on goals per shot and they are very efficient when they shoot for goal. Great info Paul :cheers

[jeffers]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Beejay and others - this is a good page for looking at shots, shot conversion, attacking play... http://www.365stats.com/football/index.php?p=league&type=entertain&div=AUS&sort=goalspg&dir=desc :ok

[jeffers]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Amazing really, that NZ have nearly the same number of shots as Melbourne, yet they have scored only 3 compared to 23 for Melbourne :eek :eek

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Beejay and others - this is a good page for looking at shots, shot conversion, attacking play... http://www.365stats.com/football/index.php?p=league&type=entertain&div=AUS&sort=goalspg&dir=desc :ok

Thanx Jeffers and taking a look now :cheers

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 There not bad stats at all to have at the ready and i could make good use of them cheers!

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Australian A-League		Ratings :void(0)'>						Analysis
03/11/2006	Melbourne Victory	52.80 v 32.80	Central Coast Mariners	+20.00	1.45	3.75	6.50	1x2	OU
04/11/2006	Newcastle Jets	49.40 v 46.00	Sydney	+3.40	2.50	3.20	2.50	1x2	OU
05/11/2006	Adelaide United	58.80 v 44.00	Perth Glory	+14.80	1.75	3.30	4.20	1x2	OU

05/11/2006

New Zealand Knights

20.00 v 38.20

Queensland Roar

-18.20

4.50

3.50

1.65

1x2

OU

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Ratings Table

Home	Away
Team Rating Queensland Roar 76.00 Adelaide United 59.00 Melbourne Victory 53.00 Perth Glory 51.00 Newcastle Jets 49.00 Sydney 40.00 Central Coast Mariners 37.00 New Zealand Knights 20.00	Team Rating Melbourne Victory 46.00 Sydney 46.00 Newcastle Jets 45.00 Perth Glory 44.00 Queensland Roar 38.00 Central Coast Mariners 35.00 Adelaide United 34.00 New Zealand Knights 33.00

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Very late these, sorry. Only posting tomorrow's game now.

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
12/11/2006	Newcastle Jets	50.60 v 35.20	Central Coast Mariners	+15.40	2.25	3.20	2.80	1x2	OU

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Very late these, sorry. Only posting tomorrow's game now.

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
12/11/2006	Newcastle Jets	50.60 v 35.20	Central Coast Mariners	+15.40	2.25	3.20	2.80	1x2	OU

Interesting figure and the Mariners are not too flash away from home this season.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
17/11/2006	Queensland Roar	69.80 v 46.00	Melbourne Victory	+23.80	3.20	3.20	2.00	1x2	OU
18/11/2006	Perth Glory	51.00 v 44.80	Newcastle Jets	+6.20	2.37	3.20	2.62	1x2	OU
19/11/2006	New Zealand Knights	16.40 v 32.40	Central Coast Mariners	-16.00	5.00	3.50	1.57	1x2	OU
19/11/2006	Sydney	46.80 v 33.00	Adelaide United	+13.80	2.25	3.25	2.75	1x2	OU

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Ratings Table

Home	Away
Team Rating Queensland Roar 69.00 Adelaide United 57.00 Perth Glory 51.00 Newcastle Jets 50.00 Melbourne Victory 49.00 Sydney 45.00 Central Coast Mariners 37.00 New Zealand Knights 21.00	Team Rating Melbourne Victory 46.00 Newcastle Jets 45.00 Sydney 44.00 Queensland Roar 42.00 Perth Glory 39.00 Central Coast Mariners 36.00 Adelaide United 35.00 New Zealand Knights 26.00

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
17/11/2006	Queensland Roar	69.80 v 46.00	Melbourne Victory	+23.80	3.20	3.20	2.00	1x2	OU
18/11/2006	Perth Glory	51.00 v 44.80	Newcastle Jets	+6.20	2.37	3.20	2.62	1x2	OU
19/11/2006	New Zealand Knights	16.40 v 32.40	Central Coast Mariners	-16.00	5.00	3.50	1.57	1x2	OU
19/11/2006	Sydney	46.80 v 33.00	Adelaide United	+13.80	2.25	3.25	2.75	1x2	OU

Interesting firgures Paul, especially Sydney and Adelaide as the latter has had many more shots than the home team, but the home team is very efficient when converting shots to goal, so the figure for this game is around about the mark. Perth and Jets have both had around the same amount of shots give or take a few but the Jets have raised their goal scoring to a new level in recent times. Interesting to see the low rating for Mariners away from home, while the Knights is even lower, but they generally lift in in NZ and are hard to run down. Queensland is high in the ratings again and suspect that's to do with their high percentage of shots but their inability to score is what's hurting them, but it has to come back soon. If Melbourne have ten shots a game it is almost a guaranteed 2 goals as they have been doing it all season. They havnt conceded a goal between the 31m mark and the 75m mark of any game this season, that means teams only have the other 45 minutes toscore a goal.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
24/11/2006	Sydney	45.60 v 42.20	Queensland Roar	+3.40	1.65	3.40	4.75	1x2	OU
25/11/2006	Central Coast Mariners	36.50 v 37.20	Adelaide United	-0.70	2.55	3.20	2.45	1x2	OU
26/11/2006	Perth Glory	45.20 v 26.00	New Zealand Knights	+19.20	1.55	3.75	5.00	1x2	OU
26/11/2006	Melbourne Victory	49.80 v 51.40	Newcastle Jets	-1.60	1.40	4.00	6.75	1x2	OU

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Ratings Table

Home	Away
Team Rating Queensland Roar 64.00 Adelaide United 57.00 Perth Glory 53.00 Newcastle Jets 50.00 Melbourne Victory 49.00 Sydney 43.00 Central Coast Mariners 37.00 New Zealand Knights 21.00	Team Rating Newcastle Jets 47.00 Melbourne Victory 45.00 Sydney 44.00 Queensland Roar 42.00 Central Coast Mariners 40.00 Perth Glory 39.00 Adelaide United 34.00 New Zealand Knights 26.00

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Ratings suggested a lay of Melbourne at 1.40 especially, was good value and so it seemed. :loon

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Ratings suggested a lay of Melbourne at 1.40 especially' date=' was good value and so it seemed. :loon[/quote'] So it was Paul :ok Actually said in my game preview that Melbourne were too short and a risk today, and Newcastle at $6 were better value, especially at the +1. The Victory has another tough game this week away to Adelaide, where the home team are tough to beat at home, and they have something like 6-1 head to head against Melbourne. Your figures are working fairly well to be honest, and seem each week at least 3 are getting up, which is pretty good.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Yeah, they seem to be doing ok in a new league, but they are open to interpretation as to what is the value, considering the ratings figure and the odds available, so there is never a definitive selection as such. Well pleased it picked that one though, just a shame there is little liquidity on Betfair for A League. :(

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Yeah, they seem to be doing ok in a new league, but they are open to interpretation as to what is the value, considering the ratings figure and the odds available, so there is never a definitive selection as such. Well pleased it picked that one though, just a shame there is little liquidity on Betfair for A League. :(

I don't quite understand the lay and how it works 100%, have a fair idea. The only one buggering you up is Queensland cos they have only scored 3 goals in their past 7 games. The A League is 21 rounds and I put a comparison of the first seven and the second seven in this weeks Round 14 wash up, and been quite a change in some teams fortunes. The Roar scored 13 in first seven and 3 in next 7, big drop, yet they still have still kept the high shot rate up, just can't score.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Laying is simple, you can be the bookmaker or the punter at Betfair. When you go to Centrebet and place a bet on say Melbourne, they are laying Melbourne, so they have Newcastle and the draw, otherwise you win. It's the same on Betfair, you go there and you can lay Melbourne (effectively betting on Newcastle and the draw), or perhaps you want to lay Newcastle (effectively betting on Melbourne and the draw). :ok If you lay £200 at 6.00, it will cost you £1000 to place the bet. If you lay Melbourne at 1.40 for £200, it will cost you £80 to place the bet. Let me know if you don't understand. :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Also, if you lay a selection at price x, the backer's price is (1/(1-x))+1. Betfair is a great tool, it's not the best for A-League, but for European games it can't be beat.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 Strangely, it's only picked up these 2 matches instead of all 4, anyway here they are.....

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
02/12/2006	Queensland Roar	57.80 v 45.00	Perth Glory	+12.80	2.30	3.20	2.70	1x2	OU
03/12/2006	Central Coast Mariners	40.80 v 42.00	Sydney	-1.20	2.80	3.25	2.20	1x2	OU

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Ratings Table

Home	Away
Team Rating Queensland Roar 64.00 Adelaide United 57.00 Perth Glory 57.00 Newcastle Jets 50.00 Sydney 47.00 Melbourne Victory 46.00 Central Coast Mariners 41.00 New Zealand Knights 21.00	Team Rating Newcastle Jets 47.00 Melbourne Victory 45.00 Sydney 44.00 Central Coast Mariners 40.00 Perth Glory 39.00 Queensland Roar 37.00 Adelaide United 34.00 New Zealand Knights 27.00

[Beejayville]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Strangely, it's only picked up these 2 matches instead of all 4, anyway here they are.....

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
02/12/2006	Queensland Roar	57.80 v 45.00	Perth Glory	+12.80	2.30	3.20	2.70	1x2	OU
03/12/2006	Central Coast Mariners	40.80 v 42.00	Sydney	-1.20	2.80	3.25	2.20	1x2	OU

Good ratings on Queensland Paul and finally some joy for the Roar as they get their first goal after over 450 minutes to beat Perth 1-0. I managed to get them for the win @ $2-45 which was great odds I thought, and got the Draw/Roar HT:FT double @ $5-50 so been a good night in A League.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
08/12/2006	Melbourne Victory	39.40 v 39.60	Sydney	-0.20	1.95	3.20	3.40	1x2	OU
10/12/2006	Central Coast Mariners	38.20 v 40.40	Perth Glory	-2.20	1.90	3.25	3.50	1x2	OU
10/12/2006	Adelaide United	52.20 v 32.40	New Zealand Knights	+19.80	1.20	5.50	10.00	1x2	OU

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07

Australian A-League		Ratings						Analysis
15/12/2006	Adelaide United	59.20 v 60.00	Newcastle Jets	-0.80	2.20	3.25	2.75	1x2	OU
16/12/2006	Central Coast Mariners	39.60 v 36.20	Queensland Roar	+3.40	1.66	3.40	4.33	1x2	OU
17/12/2006	Melbourne Victory	28.80 v 28.00	New Zealand Knights	+0.80	1.14	6.00	12.00	1x2	OU

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: A League Prediction Ratings & Ratings Tables 2006/07 One missing again, think it drops off after the date's gone. Will try and get them done Thursday from now on. :ok