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Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)


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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Think we have got the easy game out the way tho...Pretty tough round after this game, but tough rounds means good odds if we can snare a winner. Amazingly Queensland Roar is $4-25 to beat Melbourne this weekend and I find that unbeleivable odds for a team that had 27 scoring shots against Adelaide's defence last week...Admittedly they are away from home but they have been in great form...Maybe having 27 shots and not scoring has made them $4+...Great odds about an in form team who can score with a variety of players. Will see what stats I can drag up :drums

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

one of the best and liveliest forum.... also with live radio to boot!! i can see this forum doing great things.... Congrats all winners and ads25 for the info
Thanks mate, been enjoyable the last few weeks. Hopefully we can get as many people as possible into these australian threads and make it as popular as possible. The more input then the better chances we have of winning. Just hope it doesnt all go sour and we have people leaving when we have a bad week :ok (which has happened to meatman over in France)
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Think we have got the easy game out the way tho...Pretty tough round after this game, but tough rounds means good odds if we can snare a winner. Amazingly Queensland Roar is $4-25 to beat Melbourne this weekend and I find that unbeleivable odds for a team that had 27 scoring shots against Adelaide's defence last week...Admittedly they are away from home but they have been in great form...Maybe having 27 shots and not scoring has made them $4+...Great odds about an in form team who can score with a variety of players. Will see what stats I can drag up :drums
Plus its being played at the large telstra dome with whom Melbourne arent completely familiar with as yet. I was at the last one and saw 5 goals scored and i cant see how this will be any different. Both very attacking sides and alot of space to score goals.
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Next game is tomorrow night Friday Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory Friday 29 September, 8.00pm AEST (7.30pm ACST, 6.00pm AWST) EnergyAustralia Stadium, Newcastle Newcastle Squad: 20. Ben Kennedy (gk); 2. Steve Eagleton 3. Jade North, 5. Milton Rodriguez, 6. Andrew Durante, 7. Tony Faria, 8. Matt Thompson, 10. Nick Carle (Capt), 11. Tarek Elrich, 13. Adam D’Apuzzo, 16. Labinot Haliti, 17. Tolgay Ozbey, 19. Mark Bridge, 22. Steven Old, 24. Paul Kohler In: Tony Faria, Steve Eagleton, Tolgay Ozbey, Labinot Haliti (all promoted) Out: 12. Paul Okon (suspended – 1 week), 15. Stuart Musialik (shin – 1 week), 18. Joel Griffiths (suspended – 2 weeks) Unavailable: 4. Craig Deans (knee – season), 14. Jobe Wheelhouse (ankle – 4-10 weeks), 9. Vaughan Coveny (hamstring – 3-4 weeks) Perth Squad: 1. Jason Petkovic (gk); 3. David Tarka, 4. Simon Colosimo, 5. Jamie Harnwell (Capt), 6. Jeremy Christie, 8. David Micevski, 10. Bobby Despotovski, 11. Stan Lazaridis, 12. Leo Bertos, 13. Ante Kovacevic, 14. Jamie Coyne, 16. Adrian Webster, 17. Stuart Young, 19. Naum Sekulovski, 20. Aleks Vrteski (gk) In: David Micevski Out: 7. Mislav Saric (omitted) Unavailable: 15. Mark Robertson (groin – 4 weeks) Impending stats, facts and trivia Newcastle Jets will be aiming to halt their current run of league matches without a win - the Jets are currently on the league's second longest winless streak, having not won any of their last nine Hyundai A-League matches (the league's longest winless streak is 19 games, by New Zealand Knights). Additionally the Jets are on a four match home losing streak, again the second longest such streak in Hyundai A-League history (the league's longest losing streak at home is 7 games, by the Knights). The last time Newcastle won was a home ground victory on 22 January 2006, when Melbourne was defeated 1-0 at EnergyAustralia Stadium.

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Plus its being played at the large telstra dome with whom Melbourne arent completely familiar with as yet. I was at the last one and saw 5 goals scored and i cant see how this will be any different. Both very attacking sides and alot of space to score goals.
Miguel made a good point about stadium Ads whn he said the surface is not ideal for a soccer game and it could be a real home ground advantage to Melbourne when they learn to play it properly...They built the stadium the wrong way around and the lights and roof and everything else makes for some discomfort for players when trying to see the ball in the air etc. Melbourne are going along nicely at the moment but are coming off a Perth trip, which for some reason affects AFL football players when they return, wonder if it will affect the Victory Sunday.
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Interestingly lets hope history repaeats itself today, Mori was last signed on a short-term contract by Perth Glory in the early stages of the 2005/06 Hyundai A-League and debuted against the New Zealand Knights, at North Harbour Stadium - a match the Glory won 1-0.
He did it again today, maybe so Mori has something against NZ Knights:lol
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Interesting stat on how teams fared after making the long trip to Perth the previous week.

2005/2006

Team Perth played at Home

Next Round

Team

Result

R1

Perth Played Mariners

R2

Mariners

DRAW

1-1

R3

Perth played Queensland

R4

Queensland

DRAW

1-1

R4

Perth played Adelaide

R5

Adelaide

DRAW

1-1

R6

Perth played Sydney

R7

Sydney

WON

2-1

R9

Perth played Melbourne

R10

Melbourne

LOST

1-0

R12

Perth played New Zealand

R13

NZ Knights

LOST

1-0

R14

Perth played Jets

R15

Newcastle

LOST

2-1

R15

Perth played Mariners

R16

Mariners

WON

4-1

R17

Perth played Queensland

R18

Queensland

LOST

1-0

R18

Perth played Adelaide

R19

Adelaide

DRAW

1-1

R20

Perth played Sydney

R21

Sydney

WON

2-1

PreSeas

R2

Perth played Melbourne

R3

Melbourne

LOST

1-3

R3

Perth played Adelaide

R4

Adelaide

WON

1-0

In 13 games there were only 3 teams that were able to win the next week after playing in Perth. Sydney(twice), Mariners and Adelaide. In the season proper it was 3-4-4...So that is a very low strike rate for winning your next game after making the long trip to Perth and then playing your next game and winning...Looks as though the inform/good teams are able to manage it, but teams not so good may struggle. Makes Queensland Roar at $4-25 appear better value as Melbourne have lost both their next games after travelling to Perth the previous week...Something to think about if you plan to take the short odds of $1-77 about Melbourne.

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

In 13 games there were only 3 teams that were able to win the next week after playing in Perth. Sydney(twice), Mariners and Adelaide. In the season proper it was 3-4-4...So that is a very low strike rate for winning your next game after making the long trip to Perth and then playing your next game and winning...Looks as though the inform/good teams are able to manage it, but teams not so good may struggle. Makes Queensland Roar at $4-25 appear better value as Melbourne have lost both their next games after travelling to Perth the previous week...Something to think about if you plan to take the short odds of $1-77 about Melbourne.
Good spotting Beejayville. It was a similar kind of story in the AFL in recent years, teams that played at Subi against freo or wce seemed to always return on their return, will keep an eye out on this in future
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I take the X/2 and the under in single mates. Both sides didn´t shoot much goals this season and I think with Damien Mori the motivation of CCM come back ..maybe. Two singles small stake - :ok
:nana:nana love this stuff
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) I'm not very familiar with the geography of Australia, so I would really appreciate if someone could explain me where is Perth and what is so special with it that their opponents can't win in the next round. Thanks in advance!

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I'm not very familiar with the geography of Australia, so I would really appreciate if someone could explain me where is Perth and what is so special with it that their opponents can't win in the next round. Thanks in advance!
Hi Oleg :welcome It's not that opponents can't win in the next round after playing away in Perth, I was wondering what the stats were because Perth is on the West side of Australia and a 3 hour plane flight from the Eastern States...So to give you an idea...

Top of Australia

Queensland

1 hour

Perth

3 hours

Central Coast

Over

Newcastle Jets

Tasman

4 hrs

NZ Knights

Sydney

Sea

1 hour

Adelaide

1 hour

Melbourne

Something like the above, on right is Eastern States from Queensland down to Melbourne and average plane flight, then from East to West where Perth is and average plane flight. In the AFL which is Australian Rules football here in Oz there is a theory that teams that take the 3 hour plane trip from the Easterns states to Perth struggle with the distance travelled and the return flight, so that when they play their next game they are disadvantaged cos they run out of legs, or are just tired from the plane trip, plus Perth ground is very hard and combined with the heat and hardness, can cause tiredness for the next game. Queensland also has warm, humid weather too, and does have a little effect too on away teams. Compare the ground to a turf race track surface, Perth ground would be Fast while Eastern states ground would/could be Good/Dead/Slow. Melbourne and Sydney are cooler this time of year and playing in the really hot states can have an effect on them endurance wise the next week, so Perth are at an advantage that way when at home, also Queensland for that matter. And it is interesting that for whatever reason, Melbourne have lost both their next matches after making away trip to Perth, it may just be coincidence. It might be worth me checking stats of teams who flew over the Tasman and played in New Zealand and see how they went the following week. Hope this made some sense to you...Teams here are not used to travelling long distances to play a game, it is something they have to get used to, so an advantage for the home team. Bear in mind the stats were only on one season of A League and may not mean anything...

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) May be on to something here...

2005/2006

In NZ

Next game

R2

Sydney

R3

Sydney

LOST

2-1

R5

Perth

R6

Perth

LOST

2-1

R6

Adelaide

R7

Adelaide

LOST

2-1

R8

Queensland

R9

Queensland

LOST

2-1

R10

Mariners

R11

Mariners

LOST

5-1

R11

Newcastle

R12

Newcastle

DRAW

0-0

R14

Melbourne

R15

Melbourne

LOST

2-1

R16

Sydney

R17

Sydney

DRAW

0-0

R19

Perth

R20

Perth

LOST

2-1

R20

Adelaide

R21

Adelaide

LOST

2-1

From 10 games played in New Zealand last year the away team was unable to win next week and that may be due to the longer plane filght to NZ. Fairly damning statistics there from last season with 80% of teams losing the next week and interestingly enough the 2 games Perth played the next week were at home and they lost both...So whenever Perth play New Zealand away they may very well lose the next game they play beacause they are the furtherest away from the Knights ground. Now who played in New Zealand last week??? :loon

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) So far this season in 5 rounds Perth has played at home Mariners - draw next game Sydney - draw next game Melbourne - played in Perth last week and play Queensland this week NZ Knights has played at home Newcastle - Lost next game Adelaide - Won next game (against newcastle) Melbourne - Won next game (undefeated so far) Melbourne and Adelaide have been able to win after previous game away to Knights which is quite an achievement according to last seasons figures. Might be something to take in consideration when assessing the games. Last week Melbourne played away to Perth and facing rampaging Queensland Roar this week which will be fast paced running game, may have an effect on the Victory. Last week Sydney played away in New Zealand and this week they face Adelaide in Adelaide for their second away game in a row, tiredness could be a factor.

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Pretty serious trend forming there Beejay. Oleg another factor is the time that the matches are played (ie games played in Perth tend to start earlier for tv viewers in the eastern states) and also the ground conditions are very hard in the west which takes it out of the players as the match wears on. Here we go early tip for tonight, and it's not a surprising one, I am going to take Perth to beat the Jets, it's showing $3.00 on sportingbet.com.au and here is why: Simple logic this week, Newcastle are missing a lot of stars with their outs including :Paul Okon, Stuart Musialik, Joel Griffiths and Vaughan Coveny, granted that Okon has been average at best so far this season but Covney and Griffiths have provided alot of the class in the Jets attack and especially the movment of the ball into the 18 yard box and the service to Rodriquez who looks to be their only attacking hope tonight. Perth on the other hand looked good against Melbourne and should have probably pinched at least a point, they are creating so many chances and against a weak Jets back four (I think they will play a flat back four with Okon out) they will have the opportunities to score all game, just a matter of their finishing. I am looking for another big game out wide for Lazaridis and I think we will see Despotovski start up front in reaction to last weeks poor start in front of goals against the Victory. It's a great price to take the $3 for Perth to beat a win-less team and given how strong Perth played last week their record this season is a bit out of balance. 20 Points to Perth Golory V Newcastle Jets @ $3.00 Sportingbet.com.au Current bank is around 91 points :ok Thoughts?

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

http://www.a-league.com.au/default.aspx?s=newsdisplay&id=5263&pageid=11 = good enough for me to plonk 15 points on Central Coast straight to win, Mori lives for this and against an average New Zealand defence his experience will carve them up, maybe 1-0 or 2-0 but a win for CCM. 15 points at $2.45 Bank showing 74.35.
:ok Bank was up to 111.1 after this one. Come on the Glory!
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I kind of like a ht/ft double of draw/CCM, CCM should win but it's hard to see with two short term signings in that they will be able to score early, a bit like Sydney last week it should be a bit of a grind with a late winner. This is also a red hot under 2.5 goals game with neither team functioning great up front, I'm gonna wait for more odds to look at tomorrow for the best price but: My Tips for tomorrow KFC V CCM Under 2.5 KFC V CCM Ht/Ft Double of Draw/CCM KFC V CCM CCM to win straight Cheers
Just wanted to show off a 3/3 start to this round :lol:lol. Offtopic: Any of you local guys follow or bet on the NBL?
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Pretty serious trend forming there Beejay. Oleg another factor is the time that the matches are played (ie games played in Perth tend to start earlier for tv viewers in the eastern states) and also the ground conditions are very hard in the west which takes it out of the players as the match wears on. Here we go early tip for tonight, and it's not a surprising one, I am going to take Perth to beat the Jets, it's showing $3.00 on sportingbet.com.au and here is why: Simple logic this week, Newcastle are missing a lot of stars with their outs including :Paul Okon, Stuart Musialik, Joel Griffiths and Vaughan Coveny, granted that Okon has been average at best so far this season but Covney and Griffiths have provided alot of the class in the Jets attack and especially the movment of the ball into the 18 yard box and the service to Rodriquez who looks to be their only attacking hope tonight. Perth on the other hand looked good against Melbourne and should have probably pinched at least a point, they are creating so many chances and against a weak Jets back four (I think they will play a flat back four with Okon out) they will have the opportunities to score all game, just a matter of their finishing. I am looking for another big game out wide for Lazaridis and I think we will see Despotovski start up front in reaction to last weeks poor start in front of goals against the Victory. It's a great price to take the $3 for Perth to beat a win-less team and given how strong Perth played last week their record this season is a bit out of balance. 20 Points to Perth Golory V Newcastle Jets @ $3.00 Sportingbet.com.au Current bank is around 91 points :ok Thoughts?
Great assessment Miguel and thanx for providing more info on playing away, I had'nt comsidered the time played, cos Perth generally play home games in the middle of the day when quite warm don't they? Reckon you are spot on with your game thoughts...I have seen a bit of griffiths and he provides plenty of spark and drive and will be sorely missed, Okon will also be a loss as he provides stability and experience, even tho not so hot this season as you say. Perth have been good at times this season and $3 great odds...Doing my review shortly and you may have already done it for me, so now I can go out :cheers
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Also Perth Glory V Newcastle Jets looks like an Over 2.5 to me, fair chance that Rodriquez will score for the Jets (such a great player to watch!), and Perth have been creating chances a plenty even in their losses. Newcastle have gone over three times and under twice and Perth have done the same. Temp for today in Newcastle is quite hot, going to nudge 28 degrees so should suit Perth very well.

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Great minds do think alike then Beejay! I am going to the pub after work to watch this one tonight, I think it should be a cracker given Perths performance last week and how much both sides are playing for, realistically if Newcastle are to lose they have to face Melbourne next week who are red hot, two more loses and the season is basically over for them.

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Some stats for Overs/Unders and HT/FT backers...

Jets

R

Date

Home

Score

Away

HT

1

8/27/2006

NZ Knights

0 - 0

Newcastle Jets

0-0

Yes

2

9/1/2006

Newcastle

2 - 3

Queensland

2-2

No

3

9/8/2006

Adelaide Utd

5 - 1

Newcastle Jets

3-0

No

4

9/17/2006

Sydney FC

2 - 2

Newcastle Jets

2-1

No

5

9/23/2006

CC Mariners

1 - 1

Newcastle Jets

1-0

Yes

Perth

R

Date

Home

Score

Away

HT

1

8/26/2006

Queensland

3 - 0

Perth Glory

0-0

No

2

9/3/2006

Perth Glory

2 - 0

CC Mariners

0-0

Yes

3

9/10/2006

Perth Glory

1 - 1

Sydney FC

0-1

Yes

4

9/16/2006

Adelaide Utd

3 - 0

Perth Glory

2-0

No

5

9/24/2006

Perth Glory

1 - 2

Melbourne Vict

0-0

No

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Team Shots Per Goal

Team

Shots

Goals

Shots Per Goal

S/R

1

Melbourne Vict

56

11

5.1

19.64%

2

Adelaide Utd

59

8

7.4

13.56%

3

Queensland

84

11

7.6

13.10%

4

Sydney FC

54

7

7.7

12.96%

5

Newcastle Jets

56

6

9.3

10.71%

6

Perth Glory

78

4

19.5

5.13%

7

NZ Knights

40

1

40.0

2.50%

8

CC Mariners

56

1

56.0

1.79%

NOTE: Melbourne scoring at the great rate of 1 goal for every 5 shots, so teams will have to restrict Melbourne's attacks if they don't want to be scored against. Queensland's figures should be higher as they had 27 shots on goal on Friday night against Adelaide and missed countless opportunities to score. Theoretically if Perth, Knights and Mariners play teams with strong defences then they are going to struggle for shot opportunities and that means they are less likely to score due to their very low conversion rates, so something to keep in mind.

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Great minds do think alike then Beejay! I am going to the pub after work to watch this one tonight' date=' I think it should be a cracker given Perths performance last week and how much both sides are playing for, realistically if Newcastle are to lose they have to face Melbourne next week who are red hot, two more loses and the season is basically over for them.[/quote'] Sounds like a masterful plan Miguel :gimme I will watch it home as usual and update the forum for those who want to know what's going on. I am heading down to telstra Stadium Sunday to watch the melbourne/Queensland game and should be a cracker too, can't wait to hear the noise of 40,000+ people, should be a real buzz. cheers :ok
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Newcastle Jets Vs Perth Glory

Past matches

5-Feb-06

A-League

Newcastle

1 - 3

Perth Glory

25-Nov-05

A-League

Perth Glory

0 - 1

Newcastle

8-Oct-05

A-League

Newcastle

1 - 5

Perth Glory

6-Aug-05

A-League

Perth Glory

2 - 1

Newcastle

Perth have commanding 3-1 win ratio over the Jets and has beaten the Jets every time they have made the journey to Newcastle to play them, may be the same again tonight.

Total

Form

M

W

D

L

P

F

A

Jets

16

1

6

9

9

14

29

Perth

16

4

4

8

16

18

25

Home

Away

M

W

D

L

P

F

A

M

W

D

L

P

F

A

Jets

8

1

1

6

4

6

16

8

0

5

3

5

8

13

Perth

8

1

3

4

6

7

10

8

3

1

4

10

11

15

Jets have only won the 1 game in their last 16 and that was Jan 22 against Melbourne. They concede two goals to every one they score when playing at home, not so flash. Perth are only marginally better on the form stakes but they do have a better away record than at home surprisingly

Miguel has summed up this game very well and I think that Tarka, Colosimo and Harnwell down back combined with Bertos up front and the improved fitness of Bobby Despotovski and Stan Lazaridis, Perth should be able to get away with this one.

The Jets are without experienced defender Okon and midfield drive of Griffiths and this will make it a lot tougher for the Jets. Rodriguez is always lively for the Jets and Mark Bridge is a quality forward and both are capable of scoring if a solid chance is created.

Current Odds

1

X

2

Jets

2-30

3-20

2-85

Perth

Last week Perth were very strong against Melbourne and that should give them great confidence going into this game, although it should be noted they have lost both their away games this season by 3 goals. I think this game could easily be a draw too the way things have traveled for both sides this season, but from the games I have seen so far this season, Perth is the better side, and they do have a good record against the Jets, so Perth it is for me.

BET

Perth Glory Straight Out to win @ $2-85 at Centrebet

PS think there is better odds out there for the Perth win at different agencies, cos Miguel got $3, probably Sportingbet :dude

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Just wanted to show off a 3/3 start to this round :lol:lol. Offtopic: Any of you local guys follow or bet on the NBL?
Great stuff again Miguel and you always back it up with solid reasoning. People should be making solid profits from this A League thread it they read and glean the facts that are stated each round. I backed the Draw/Draw to win last night and saved on Draw/Mariners so at least got my money back, hard to be confident about a mariners win when they can't score regularly. You and Ads were confident enough tho and well done!!! A few people hit the Under 2.5 which was always going to be a great chance and it got up, so it is all good!!! :drums
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Just wanted to show off a 3/3 start to this round :lol:lol. Offtopic: Any of you local guys follow or bet on the NBL?
That would be a no Miguel lol Basketball the game does nothing for me whatsoever, don't like watching it at all, too many stoppages for me and fouls for breathing to close to someone. However...If you are able to point me to a winner then I am prepared to take a little bo peep.
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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Interesting statistic there Beejay about the Perth thingo ;) Definetely food for thought. But I think Roar odds is quite that high is because Melbourne is in form and the fact they will miss their Chinese striker. Anyway for tonight game I think Perth really have a lot of value. I'm looking to take them on 0 AH once again. The loss of Okon and Griffiths would prove costly for Newcastle I'm afraid, even though Rodriguez is in-form. Somehow I can see the scoreline ended 2 - 1 in PG' favour. G'luck everyone tonight, may the streak continue ;)

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Fernando out for six Thursday, 28 September, 2006 - 8:02PM 00004946-image.jpg Fernando Adelaide United has been dealt a major blow with the news striker Fernando could be sidelined for up to six weeks with a knee injury. Tests have confirmed the Brazilian import received a second grade tear to the medial ligament in his left knee in the first half of last Friday night A-League match against Queensland Roar. He is still waiting on the results of scans to determine if there is any more damage, but the end result is he is out of the Reds line-up for at least the next six matches. "I am disappointed with the injury especially seeing as I have been feeling good about my game and scoring goals and more so missing the game on Monday against Sydney FC at Hindmarsh Stadium because it is always a big game," Fernando said. "But that’s the way it goes, my knee is already feeling better after one week and hopefully I can come back sooner rather than later." Fernando's injury comes at the worst possible time for Adelaide after Chinese striker Shengqing Qu was handed a two-match ban after being found guilty of violent conduct also from the match against the Roar. Defender Kristian Rees and midfielder Matthew Kemp have come into the squad for this week's vital Hyundai A-League clash with Sydney FC at Hindmarsh Stadium on Monday.

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Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Big news coming out from the A-LEague that Fernando Rech is out for ADelaide UTd with a knee injury for 6 weeks. That is a huge loss considering the great form the guy has been in, and with chinese player Shen Qu out on suspension for 2 weeks, Adelaide really do have some striking woes to deal with. They havnt impressed me that much up front this year and its been their great defensive record which has kept them in it, but with these 2 out they are in alot of trouble now

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