Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) I agree that Sydney look the goods but they still have Carney and Corica on the sidelines which will take a lot away from their midfield and their service to the forwards. I doubt Carbone will see more than about 20 min late in the match, Butcher would be very brave to plonk him straight into this one. I have found Adelaides inclusions of a defender and midfielder very interesting, I would have expected to see a more attacking player come in, but they seem a bit short in their list this season. Their past matches have all seen high scoring affairs and lots of passion, but with Corica, Carney, Qu and Fernando out I think the passion will lack a little and so will the goals. I am tipping an under 2.5 here, against the trend, neither team look like they will dominate, I can not see where Adeliades goals will come from, for Sydney Jeremy Brockie will have to find some form quickly of Sydney are to do anything this year, Sydney need more from their forwards but they seem to lack some class. If I was going to tip a result it would be the home win, not a lot of value to be had here for me, the +.5 and DNB's are too short to take Sydney, maybe the draw is ok at $3.25. I think I will have some on the half time draw here, it's at $2.15, both teams will have different structure and new routes to goal up front so I think there will be a period of adjustment to this and should see us to half-time at 0-0. If I am putting any on the win here it will be Draw/Adelaide at $5.25, worth a tilt for some small money. I'll finalise my tips latter on guys, still pondering this one.

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Interesting thoughts Miguel and you rasie some excellent points :ok Going to have to ponder a bit more myself now lol

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Hi Beejay, my thinking is that there is big risk in each full time result, so if I am going in then I want some value, while $2.30 is not bad, it's really not good enough, I think the bookies have hit this one spot on with no real favorite and a small advantage for the home team. Beejay are you going to tip with the return trip from New Zealand trend? In theory Sydney should have very little chance.

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Hi Beejay, my thinking is that there is big risk in each full time result, so if I am going in then I want some value, while $2.30 is not bad, it's really not good enough, I think the bookies have hit this one spot on with no real favorite and a small advantage for the home team. Beejay are you going to tip with the return trip from New Zealand trend? In theory Sydney should have very little chance.

I forgot about that trend Miguel and it brings up an interesting point really cos Sydney were probably stronger last year. Sydney played in NZ in Round 2 last season and then lost their Round 3 trip away to Newcastle, tho Jets ground is not that far away...In Round 16 they played in NZ again and had a draw away to Necastle in their next game...So after 2 trips to NZ Sydney have only picked up 1 point in the following 2 games the next week. May mean nothing, could just be a Jets thing...But Sydney flying to NZ then this week flying down to Adelaide which may have some affect on them, altho Adelaide flying back from Queensland which is a fair trip for them too...They only played in Qld once last year Adelaide and then they beat Victory in Melbourne next game. Both Sydney and Adelaide arn't flying so high this season and may have no bearing...Classes cancelled this arvo and just got Fox 3 put on so will be watching the game this arvo with interest...Could be a no bet job as you suggest too Miguel, be back in a few :ok

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) In fact it shows just how strong Melbourne's form is as they have been the only team since the A League's inception to go to New Zealand to play the Knights and then win the next week, and they did it in Round 4 when they beat the Mariners, and think they were a bit flat that day from memory. they also beat the Knoghts 3-0 over there which is a fair effort as most teams are struggling to score against the Knights when Knights are playing at home.

[chiqo]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) I´m on Adelaide too :ok btw great thread here mates. Lot of information about the aussi stuff. :clap

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Starting bank = 151 Alright, I am going to have three bets here and see what happens, all of my odds are from sportingbet.com.au, can not be arsed shopping around today, here they are: Adelaide United V Sydney FC, Half Time Result = Draw, having 15 points at $2.10: As above, I think new line-ups, new players, lots of attacking flair missing should equal a pretty average first half and no goals. I doubt that Brockie will find form today and the Adelaide defence showed last week it can be very stubborn. My most confident bet today. Adelaide United V Sydney FC, Ht/Ft Result = Draw/Adelaide, having 10 points at $5.25: With the half time draw a possibility I agree with the bookies thinking that Adelaide have the slight advantage from being at home, $5.25 is worth the shot, if I was going to have a saver (which I'm not) it would be on Draw/Draw. Sydney looked rubbish against the Knights and are struggling to find any solid midfield structure under Butcher, I think Adelaide can hold strong and take a late winner. Adelaide United V Sydney FC, Under 2.5 Goals, having 10 points at $1.85: See above, all of the solid forwards for each team are injured or out of touch, Adelaide have looked solid at the back and Sydneys back four have been stable all season, could be a really slow boring match, for me this looks safe as. Interesting that given their records against each other (ie high scoring affirs) the bookies are showing $1.85 for both unders and overs, which shows how much attack is missing here. :ok Best of luck to those having a crack.

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Adelaide United vs Sydney FC

Past matches
11-Aug-06	A-League	Sydney FC	1 - 2	Adelaide Utd
19-Feb-06	A-League	Sydney FC	2 - 1	Adelaide Utd
12-Feb-06	A-League	Adelaide Utd	2 - 2	Sydney FC
3-Feb-06	A-League	Sydney FC	2 - 1	Adelaide Utd
27-Nov-05	A-League	Adelaide Utd	3 - 2	Sydney FC
9-Oct-05	A-League	Sydney FC	2 - 1	Adelaide Utd

Great rivalry between these two teams with Sydney slightly ahead in the Head to Head stats.

Last 16 Games played

	Total
Form	M	W	D	L	P	F	A
Adelaide	16	7	5	4	26	21	13
Sydney	16	9	4	3	31	25	17
	Home								Away
	M	W	D	L	P	F	A		M	W	D	L	P	F	A
Adelaide	8	5	2	1	17	17	7		8	2	3	3	9	4	6
Sydney	8	6	1	1	19	14	7		8	3	3	2	12	11	10

Adelaide record is fairly formidable at home and defensively they are a very good unit having only lost the one game at home in their last eight outings at Hindmarsh Stadium Sydney away form is also fair and they don’t seem to have any trouble scoring away and have only lost the two games on the road in their last eight.

Last 5 games this season

	Adelaide
R	Date	Home	Score	Away	HT	>2.5
1	8/25/2006	Melbourne Vict	2 - 0	Adelaide Utd	1-0	No
2	9/2/2006	NZ Knights	1 - 0	Adelaide Utd	0-0	No
3	9/8/2006	Adelaide Utd	5 - 1	Newcastle Jets	3-0	Yes
4	9/16/2006	Adelaide Utd	3 - 0	Perth Glory	2-0	Yes
5	9/22/2006	Queensland	0 - 0	Adelaide Utd	0-0	No
	Sydney
R	Date	Home	Score	Away	HT	>2.5
1	8/27/2006	Sydney FC	1 - 0	CC Mariners	0-0	No
2	9/2/2006	Melbourne Vict	3 - 2	Sydney FC	2-1	Yes
3	9/10/2006	Perth Glory	1 - 1	Sydney FC	0-1	No
4	9/17/2006	Sydney FC	2 - 2	Newcastle Jets	2-1	Yes
5	9/21/2006	NZ Knights	0 - 1	Sydney FC	0-0	No

Adelaide have had two good home wins this season, although the Perth win was against a weakened Glory without Laziridis and their away form has been solid but not outstanding. Sydney has scored every game and that is excellent considering the players they have out, I think Sydney are going to get bigger and better as they get back to full strength.

Goal Scorers so far for each team

Player	Team	Total
Rech Fernando	Adelaide Utd	3	Out Today
Qu Shengqing	Adelaide Utd	1	Out Today
Cornthwaite Rob	Adelaide Utd	1
Dodd Travis	Adelaide Utd	1
Zdrilic David	Sydney FC	1
Rudan Mark	Sydney FC	1
Petrovski Sasho	Sydney FC	1
Fyfe Iain	Sydney FC	2
Corica Steve	Sydney FC	1	Out Today

Adelaide do not look to have much firepower today and Sydney has four players in today who have all scored so far this season.

Sydney has sorely missed Dwight Yorke and David Carney in midfield with Carney not set to resume training for at least another month. Meanwhile, Sasho Petrovski has fallen behind David Zdrilic in the pecking order under Terry Butcher and Steve Corica is suspended. Adelaide must also do without the suspended Shengqing Qu, who has received an additional one-match ban following Wednesday night's disciplinary hearing, as well as Fernando who twisted his knee falling awkwardly against Queensland last weekend. But these absences merely open the door for others to make an impression with Sydney's guest signing Benito Carbone expected to make his debut on Monday after protracted talks.

	1	X	2
Adelaide	2-30	3-20	2-85	Sydney

Initially I wasn’t going to have a bet on this game but with Rech and Qu missing from Adelaide and Sydney’s ability to score a goal each game they play I am now leaning towards a Sydney win and at $2-85 they are good odds considering for mine. Sydney got through a hard to beat Knights defence last week and although I am going against the trend as Sydney have not been able to win the following round after playing in New Zealand. I still feel they are playing better football at the moment.

Adelaide has a very good defence and are quite capable of winning this game but I am going out on a limb and leaning towards a 0-1 away win by Sydney and I am prepared to snap up the $2-85 on offer. I also agree with Miguel on the Under 2.5 scoreline and it is currenty $1-85 if you feel that way inclined...The half-time Draw is also a very big chance and at odds of $2-20.

BET

Sydney Straight Out to win @ $2-85

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Starting bank = 151 Alright, I am going to have three bets here and see what happens, all of my odds are from sportingbet.com.au, can not be arsed shopping around today, here they are: Adelaide United V Sydney FC, Half Time Result = Draw, having 15 points at $2.10: As above, I think new line-ups, new players, lots of attacking flair missing should equal a pretty average first half and no goals. I doubt that Brockie will find form today and the Adelaide defence showed last week it can be very stubborn. My most confident bet today. Adelaide United V Sydney FC, Ht/Ft Result = Draw/Adelaide, having 10 points at $5.25: With the half time draw a possibility I agree with the bookies thinking that Adelaide have the slight advantage from being at home, $5.25 is worth the shot, if I was going to have a saver (which I'm not) it would be on Draw/Draw. Sydney looked rubbish against the Knights and are struggling to find any solid midfield structure under Butcher, I think Adelaide can hold strong and take a late winner. Adelaide United V Sydney FC, Under 2.5 Goals, having 10 points at $1.85: See above, all of the solid forwards for each team are injured or out of touch, Adelaide have looked solid at the back and Sydneys back four have been stable all season, could be a really slow boring match, for me this looks safe as. Interesting that given their records against each other (ie high scoring affirs) the bookies are showing $1.85 for both unders and overs, which shows how much attack is missing here. :ok Best of luck to those having a crack.

Good summary Miguel and good reasoning behind it, so best of luck with your bets, tho i am against you in your second one cos I am wanting a Sydney win...I just can't see Adelaide scoring and Sydney have scored every game so far without many of their better players, hopefully they can score again today :hope

[888]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) I think I will have small punt on Sydney to win today. Sydney so far always managed to score goals in their match somehow. Moreover, today with Adelaide under-powered attack forces because few key players will be missing and considering Sydney have a decent defence in Rudan and Milligan, therefore I would go for Syd win. I didn't expect Carbone to shine, but certainly even without Corica and Carney they still always managed to score in games previously. If Adelaide was in full line-up this will be a no bet for me, but since they are not and Syd always managed to score somehow, I think Syd is worth a small punt and I have faith with the old champions still. Bet : Syd win 3/10 @ 2.85 centrebet Hopefully this is a move that won't backfire on me where it have a 50 - 50 chance it would, but anyway G'luck everyone today :hope

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I think I will have small punt on Sydney to win today. Sydney so far always managed to score goals in their match somehow. Moreover, today with Adelaide under-powered attack forces because few key players will be missing and considering Sydney have a decent defence in Rudan and Milligan, therefore I would go for Syd win. I didn't expect Carbone to shine, but certainly even without Corica and Carney they still always managed to score in games previously. If Adelaide was in full line-up this will be a no bet for me, but since they are not and Syd always managed to score somehow, I think Syd is worth a small punt and I have faith with the old champions still. Bet : Syd win 3/10 @ 2.85 centrebet Hopefully this is a move that won't backfire on me where it have a 50 - 50 chance it would, but anyway G'luck everyone today :hope

Well I am with you on this one Uncoabis and I just had a go at the Half-Time draw at $2-20 cos there is a great chance of that happening. Best of luck... :hope Just trying to track down the Web broadcast for anyone who wants to listen to it live... Its at http://www.life.on.net/ but sometimes does not open properly for me and have to paste link into Windows Media Player

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I´m on Adelaide too :ok btw great thread here mates. Lot of information about the aussi stuff. :clap

Thanx Chiqo but have to go against you on the Adelaide thumbs up lol cos I am wanting a Sydney win, but good luck anyway. If you are after any other stats or anything just let us know and see what we can do. I try to provide something a bit different in the way of stats so people can read them and then make a decision in some way. At least this forum has some backable teams with good odds at times and some good reasoning behind the tips, especially Miguel and Ads. We have had multiple winners from $2-80 upwards a few times which is excellent. It is a little annoying going into say the English premiership threads and seeing tips for Chelsea, Man utd, Arsenal and Liverpool, I would prefer to know when someone thinks one of the big 4 might lose, cos then there is value on the opponent. Anyone could tip Chelsea to win but they are always under the odds, i don't even bet on the premiership now unless I can see some value. Ads put out a tip in the Premiership forum on the weekend for Bolton to beat Liverpool at $4-20 or so, and that was against the trend, but its tips like these that can be real value, rather than tipping teams like Chelsea and Man Utd who are always expected to win and always short odds.

[888]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Well to be honest, in my point of view I think some EPL matches are a bit fixed. Not as worst as Italian soccer. But I'll bet my money that EPL isn't 100% corruption free. With all the high rollers are all playing there and with multi million or even billion of money liquidity in the league for punting, sometimes it is unavoidable that a match is fixed. Since sadly money sometimes can buy everything. On the contrary like the A-League, it is the matter of reading the team and the game instead of reading the bookies sometimes like when we punt on bigger league like EPL. This is just my speculation, so don't take my words for it. But I do feel strongly that it might be true on some occassion.

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) For those wanting a Web Broadcast of the Adelaide/Sydney game... Its at http://www.life.on.net/ but if you have any problems with opening a "Listen.pls" then simply Open Windows Media Player and click File then click Open Url and type http://radio.internode.on.net:8040 and hey presto a live broadcast :ok

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Well to be honest, in my point of view I think some EPL matches are a bit fixed. Not as worst as Italian soccer. But I'll bet my money that EPL isn't 100% corruption free. With all the high rollers are all playing there and with multi million or even billion of money liquidity in the league for punting, sometimes it is unavoidable that a match is fixed. Since sadly money sometimes can buy everything. On the contrary like the A-League, it is the matter of reading the team and the game instead of reading the bookies sometimes like when we punt on bigger league like EPL. This is just my speculation, so don't take my words for it. But I do feel strongly that it might be true on some occassion.

Interesting thoughts and you would think it would be hard for a team 11 players to all agree to fix the game to be honest, but Italy have proven that possible and it's sad really. I would never bet on Italian soccer again in my life because of the match fixing, happens once, can happen again, and you wouldn't give a thief the keys to your car would you?

[aristoteles]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) good morning Australianiùvi friends I follow with Adelaide

4.

Adelaide Utd

5

2

1

2

7

8

4

3.

Sydney FC

5

2

2

1

8

7

6

• Prediction = 1 (0,-05) • Odds = 2.10 • Stake = 7/10 • Bookmakers = Bet1128

[ads25]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Adelaide vs Sydney Well the rematch of last years grand final has come but both teams so far this year have been a bit stale. Sydney have bbeen solid if not spectacular, while Adelaide have been travelling along average and if it wasnt for their strong defence they would be further behind. If you exclude Adelaides matches against Newcastle & Perth (5 and 3 goals respectively) Adelaide have been struggling to find or create chances at goals, and in those two games mentioned Fernando Rech & Qu were the main reasons they got so many goals. Their work creating and setting up shots at goals is invaluable, but the fact both of them are missing is really going to hurt them. Adelaide dont seem to have bolstered up their side with any attackers either this week which suggests to me they will be playing defensively for alot of the game, so an Under 2.5 bet looks good here, but what worries me is recent history between the 2. They played 5 times last year (2 finals + 3 H&A games) and all 5 ended up over 2.5 goals with Sydney having the better of Adelaide 3-1-1, but Sydney never beat them in Adelaide. Last week against Queensland Adelaide really struggled, they only got a couple of shots for the whole game and never looked like winning while Queensland peppered the goals all night. They had 27 shots at the goals but Adelaide had a super keeper in Beltrame plus Nathan Burns was brilliant in th back half for Utd, so if Burns can have the same impact tonight it will be tough for Sydney. Sydney have a depleted squad also with David Carney out injured along with the suspended captain Steve Corrica and with Dwight Yorke now gone (who is very sorely missed), Adelaide would fancy their chances of getting something out of this match. One big positive for Sydney though is that former European star Benito Carbone is expected to play tonight and he is an absolute superstar. Not sure how they will play him in this match whether he comes on late or starts, but he will make an impact im sure. Also to be noted is that Sydney have scored in every match of the season to date which is a fantastic effort, and thats without some of their best players. They will only get better, but tonight im not sure. They were very sluggish last weekend agains New Zealand but they did enough to win. In conclusion, this games reaks of a no bet due to the eveness of both teams. But considering both teams are a 50/50 chance of winning id look at backing Sydney to win at $2.85 purely because of the value, rarely can you find odds of $2.85 on a team which has as much chance of winning as the other. Obviously the draw looks a bit of a concern so perhaps taking Sydney on the handicap is a better option here for those that want to be less risky. Ill be going for Sydney though straight out with small-medium stakes. Pick Sydney to WIN at $2.85 - (4/10) Pick Score to end 1-1 as a saver - (1/10) Good luck everyone! :hope Ads25

[ads25]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

good morning Australianiùvi friends I follow with Adelaide

4.

Adelaide Utd

5

2

1

2

7

8

4

3.

Sydney FC

5

2

2

1

8

7

6

• Prediction = 1 (0,-05) • Odds = 2.10 • Stake = 7/10 • Bookmakers = Bet1128

I think what Aristoteles is trying to say is that he is going for Adelaide to win this

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Carbone is starting, very big move by Butcher here, I think he could very well get run off his feet early.

[ads25]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Well to be honest, in my point of view I think some EPL matches are a bit fixed. Not as worst as Italian soccer. But I'll bet my money that EPL isn't 100% corruption free. With all the high rollers are all playing there and with multi million or even billion of money liquidity in the league for punting, sometimes it is unavoidable that a match is fixed. Since sadly money sometimes can buy everything. On the contrary like the A-League, it is the matter of reading the team and the game instead of reading the bookies sometimes like when we punt on bigger league like EPL. This is just my speculation, so don't take my words for it. But I do feel strongly that it might be true on some occassion.

I see what your saying, but you would have to be crazy if you were considering fixing matches if your were an administrator or player etc in a league as high as england. IF you got caught the consequences would be astronmocial. But the thought of match fixing is always there, Italian soccer has done alot of damage to the image of world football

[aristoteles]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I think what Aristoteles is trying to say is that he is going for Adelaide to win this

I go myself for the Victoria of the Adelaide United. Squares uniforms from 2 points creed that the factor field can make the difference Adelaide United vs Sydney FC. I take the game in Asian handicap (0,-0.5) • Prediction = 1 (0,-05) • Odds = 2.10 • Stake = 7/10 • Book = Bet1128

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Carbone is starting' date=' very big move by Butcher here, I think he could very well get run off his feet early.[/quote'] Guess Carbone must be ok to go, you can see what class players can do for a side, just look at Archie Thompson and Fred for Melbourne, Stan Laziridis for Perth, and Dwight Yorke when he was at Sydney...Players like Carbone who were quality players in England Premiership will be a class above the other players in the A League, and Carbone if he is in the right frame of mind will lift other Sydney players beacuse of his sheer abilty. When Romario goes to Adelaide next month, it will be the same thing, Romario is legend status overseas and will put a lot of bums on seats in the A League. Can't wait to see him myself, he's around 40 but will still be better than most of the league players.

[aristoteles]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I go myself for the Victoria of the Adelaide United. Squares uniforms from 2 points creed that the factor field can make the difference Adelaide United vs Sydney FC. I take the game in Asian handicap (0,-0.5) • Prediction = 1 (0,-05) • Odds = 2.10 • Stake = 7/10 • Book = Bet1128

1 point :$

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

Well to be honest, in my point of view I think some EPL matches are a bit fixed. Not as worst as Italian soccer. But I'll bet my money that EPL isn't 100% corruption free. With all the high rollers are all playing there and with multi million or even billion of money liquidity in the league for punting, sometimes it is unavoidable that a match is fixed. Since sadly money sometimes can buy everything. On the contrary like the A-League, it is the matter of reading the team and the game instead of reading the bookies sometimes like when we punt on bigger league like EPL. This is just my speculation, so don't take my words for it. But I do feel strongly that it might be true on some occassion.

Money does a lot of strange things to people and when you look at some of the results that have occured and some of the performances that have happened it's easy to draw these conclusions, but I hope it's not. I have not put any $$$ on the epl this season, and I doubt I will, prefer the championship or Asia for a bit of fun.

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

I go myself for the Victoria of the Adelaide United. Squares uniforms from 2 points creed that the factor field can make the difference Adelaide United vs Sydney FC. I take the game in Asian handicap (0,-0.5) • Prediction = 1 (0,-05) • Odds = 2.10 • Stake = 7/10 • Book = Bet1128

Good luck with your bets Aristoteles but I am unable to decipher your reasoning but your predicions last week were spot on and agreed with mine, so well done! I am against you today tho and rooting for a Sydney win so hope you can get your asians up :ok

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) 10,000 crowd at Adelaide thus far, good numbers.

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Live Stats and team available here for the Adelaide and Sydney game

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02)

10' date='000 crowd at Adelaide thus far, good numbers.[/quote'] That's a great effort for a Monday afternoon. Thought 25,000+ last night was a good crowd for the melbourne game considering it was grand Final weekend in AFL and NRL. Melbourne/Queensland replay on FOX 3 just then and missed it :wall Best of luck with all your bets guys :hope Go the half time draw :clap :clap :clap

[Beejayville]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) Game just about to start and crown ad conditions look great on the TV Game on!!!

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: Australian A-League Round 6 (Sept 28- Oct 02) 3-4-3 for Sydney with Brosque, Zdrilich and Carbone up front according to the radio, very attacking, Sydney are going all out, concerned for unders now, really thought they would have had two up front with a 4-4-2 and two defensive midfielders.