Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

[robilaruk]

well it had to happen didn't it - the 'worst' hand in the game HU has been going back and forth and I hit trips to beat him last hand so what do you think? it is going to cost another 640 to call Damo fragau is at seat 1 with 840.00 LizziePL is at seat 3 with 6060.00 LizziePL posts the large blind 400.00 fragau posts the small blind 200.00 LizziePL: 2s, 7c fragau: --, -- Pre-flop: fragau: All in

[morlspin]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off How can you possibly fold it?

[stevie-p]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off 7/2os isnt too bad heads up. he has pushed here as he has no other option. he could have anything so no need to try to put him on any sort of hand. hes likely in front. its only costing you 440 to call into a pot of 1200 odd. standard call. the annoying thing is youll likely lose and hell have a playable stack again

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off 640 to call - the hh on boss isn't that good and if he is ahead - why do I want to call and double him up? Damo

7/2os isnt too bad heads up. he has pushed here as he has no other option. he could have anything so no need to try to put him on any sort of hand. hes likely in front. its only costing you 440 to call into a pot of 1200 odd. standard call. the annoying thing is youll likely lose and hell have a playable stack again

[daftpegasus]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off Fold it. One is a spade and one a club. The magic only works when you have one red and one black.

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

Fold it. One is a spade and one a club. The magic only works when you have one red and one black.

No, it's OK so long as you have the "four colour deck" option turned on. ... isn't that what the four colour deck is for?

[Dave Mardell]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

well it had to happen didn't it - the 'worst' hand in the game

Its the worst hand in a FULL game, because it has no straight or flush potential. However it is FAR from the worst hand in a heads up situation, and is beating 10 possible holdings....

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off call :unsure at least pot odds would suggest so ,its a tricky one tho and if there was a sit on the fence option on the poll ,i think i would be doing that;) i must congratulate you for this very good series of threads damo:clap nearly every situation has been a real 50/50 and have nearly all had very split views on how to play each. because of this we are all getting different idea's from different people and it's makeing us think about it which is never a bad thing,after all as they say" knowledge is power":)

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off You're getting 3-1, you have to call, even with 72o...............

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

it is going to cost another 640 to call fragau is at seat 1 with 840.00 LizziePL posts the large blind 400.00 fragau posts the small blind 200.00 fragau: All in

Er..... it'll cost you 440 to call......

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off trust me - its 1040 altogether to call - so another 640 to me promise ;) Damo

Er..... it'll cost you 440 to call......

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off thanks Uber:ok that was my intention from the very start - to post and discuss these really close situations where at first glance the choice looks easy, but actually is not...:eek cheers Damo

call :unsure at least pot odds would suggest so ,its a tricky one tho and if there was a sit on the fence option on the poll ,i think i would be doing that;) i must congratulate you for this very good series of threads damo:clap nearly every situation has been a real 50/50 and have nearly all had very split views on how to play each. because of this we are all getting different idea's from different people and it's makeing us think about it which is never a bad thing,after all as they say" knowledge is power":)

[Masterplan]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off more than a M to call, i say fold, wait for ANYTHING better when its his bb.

[GaF]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

trust me - its 1040 altogether to call - so another 640 to me

In that case, Fragou must have a stack of 1040 and not 840 as in the hand history :unsure

[Masterplan]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

In that case' date=' Fragou must have a stack of 1040 and not 840 as in the hand history :unsure[/quote'] hand history contains stack sizes AFTER blinds are posted

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off I would rather have 65 64 54 and 43 every day of the week over 72 even if they are 'worse' hands I like the fact I have str possis with those for only 3 cards, not 4 Damo

Its the worst hand in a FULL game, because it has no straight or flush potential. However it is FAR from the worst hand in a heads up situation, and is beating 10 possible holdings....

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off interesting we only have on fold so far (I am ignoring DP's post - unless you actually do mean fold?) hmmmm very interesting Damo

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

hand history contains stack sizes AFTER blinds are posted

... which is incredibly confusing, especially as they say what the stack sizes are before they say "xxx posts the large blind". :wall

[Jaded]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off As incredible as this will seem to everyone, I would fold and wait for a better hand. (For those who saw me do the exact opposite yesterday, I'm more awake now!!)

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

I would rather have 65 64 54 and 43 every day of the week over 72 even if they are 'worse' hands I like the fact I have str possis with those for only 3 cards, not 4 Damo

Apart from 43, the ones you've listed are better hands heads up than 72 (at least according to conventional mathematics that fails to take into account the special power of 72o). But what about 42, 52, etc?

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off i would take 72 over 42 and 52 - because any str they make is vulnerable to the higher card limp and also the range of straights is reduced. With 65, 54 you can make hi and low and middle straights (any cards between 2-9 and A-8 respectively) does that make sense? Damo

Apart from 43' date=' the ones you've listed [b']are better hands heads up than 72 (at least according to conventional mathematics that fails to take into account the special power of 72o). But what about 42, 52, etc?

[runadrum]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off fold and move on but then I hope by now everyone knows I would say that

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off LOL - love the signature line Run :) shall we do a bit of maths? its 640 to call a pot of 1240 - so just about 2:1 am i a 2:1 dog? yes assuming he has two over cards its about 68/32 dependant on his value of cards and whether we share the same suits etc, so he is just over 2:1 fav now, lets see if he has only one overcard (K4 for instance) he is now a 65/35 fav, so my hand is less than a 2:1 dog so can we assume its a mixture of both? Which makes it 'about 2:1' in his favour. I am discounting PP here and also cards LOWER than mine, he might be shoving 65 - they probably balance out? (slight positive) (7 PP higher than my 2 cards, 10 hands lower than my 7 and 4 PP lower than my 7 - and am ignoring 77 & 22 as I have one of each so he is very unlikely to have either pair, and of course I am ignoring the fact that he might also have 72 as well - so all in all they probably balance each other out - no doubt someone else can clarify this? this is just my gut feeling). Chip stack: I have a 6-1 chip lead against him, so if I call and lose it becomes a 2.5-1 or so chip lead - so I am still ahead (positive) Blinds - this is the key - they are 200/400, going up every 5 mins. If I fold he now has 1240 and he is on the BB next hand, so if I shove he is calling any 2 for his remaining 840 chips, or I can fold, and he would then have 1440, which he then shoves on my next BB and then its 1K or so to call - notice the difference? its gone from 600 to 1K to call in two hands. Whatever happens he is doubling up either this hand, or potentially sometime in the next 3 or 4 as he keeps shoving - so its best to take the 2:1 on offer NOW and try to bust him rather than in 3 hands when you lose and he doubles up around 4K rather than 2K - big difference in the HU match at this point, (so its a positive to call now rather than in 3 hands). I called - he had Qc 5D - poker stove says this equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 64.9630 % 64.44% 00.53% { Qc5d } Hand 2: 35.0370 % 34.51% 00.53% { 7c2s } Thats why you must call these hands sometimes - you are actually getting the correct odds to and are best off to do so now rather than later anyhoo he hit the flop Flop (Board: 8c, Qh, 10h): and I hit turn and river..... Turn (Board: 8c, Qh, 10h, 7d): River (Board: 8c, Qh, 10h, 7d, 2d): LizziePL shows: 2s, 7c (two pair, Sevens and Deuces) Mainpot: LizziePL wins the pot of 2080 with two pair, Sevens and Deuces For some reason he didn't respond to my GG...... easy this game..... :tongue2 Damo

fold and move on but then I hope by now everyone knows I would say that

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off OK, I agree that you're getting approximately the right odds to call, and I don't think either calling or folding is terrible ... in fact, I'm not sure which is right ..., but ...

Chip stack: I have a 6-1 chip lead against him, so if I call and lose it becomes a 2.5-1 or so chip lead - so I am still ahead (positive)

You're also still ahead if you fold. I don't see why this is an extra plus for calling.

Blinds - this is the key - they are 200/400, going up every 5 mins. If I fold he now has 1240 and he is on the BB next hand, so if I shove he is calling any 2 for his remaining 840 chips, or I can fold, and he would then have 1440, which he then shoves on my next BB and then its 1K or so to call - notice the difference? its gone from 600 to 1K to call in two hands. Whatever happens he is doubling up either this hand, or potentially sometime in the next 3 or 4 as he keeps shoving - so its best to take the 2:1 on offer NOW and try to bust him rather than in 3 hands when you lose and he doubles up around 4K rather than 2K - big difference in the HU match at this point, (so its a positive to call now rather than in 3 hands).

My gut instinct is to find this unconvincing as well, I'm afraid, but I'll have to think about it a bit more carefully to articulate why ... ... I'll be back. :D

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off If I call he now has 2K or so in chips to my 5K so we are back to a more 'normal' game (he has 5BB)- one that I know I can win in the long run - I believe I am a better player than he is and can beat him, so as he has a reasonable amount of chips to the blinds, he doesn't want to blow them, which means I can take advatage with bets at the right time to win pots and nibble at him until i actually hit the best hand and get his chips in the middle when i am the favourite - I don't mind weak players having chips as it gives me a chance to play some poker and beat them - what does get me if is the blinds are 300/600 and we have 3K each in chips - any raise is all in, so we are racing all the time, with the blinds at 200/400 a raise to 1K is a viable play, and half - 2/3rd pot bets for value on a flop when we both limp doesn't consume all your stack. Looking forward to your cogitations :) Thanks Damo

You're also still ahead if you fold. I don't see why this is an extra plus for calling. My gut instinct is to find this unconvincing as well, I'm afraid, but I'll have to think about it a bit more carefully to articulate why ... ... I'll be back. :D

[Masterplan]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off yeah but if you fold he is 1400 to your 6000 ... thats pretty much irreconcibiable loss vs a good player

[robilaruk]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off and its his BB next and I have 95 - what do i do? fold? so he now has 1600 chips and I have Q4 and he shoves - now what? fold? so he now has 2K in chips and its his BB and I pick up 67 - now what? shove and he calls with Kx...... or fold and he has 2400 in chips of course I could pick up aces next hand after I fold my 27 but the chances are I wont and he is in shoving/calling mode as he has so few chips - a better player has to beat the odds as well as the villian when the villian is so short stacked, so take you chance early rather than later as it achieves (at worst) the same result as waiting for 3 hands and at best he is out and you win Just my thoughts on this - thats why i post these hands to generate discussion and see how i can improve by listening to other folks reasoning - I am not saying 'I am right and you must all follow my lead', i just think it is the best play in this specific situation for me given what I know i.e. what odds I am getting, what the chip stacks are and what happens if I lose. eg. Drop the blinds to 100/200 and its an instafold - raise to 300/600 and its defo an instacall (its now about 4-1 to call so even if he has aces you are getting the correct odds to call) - make it a bubble play and it changes again etc Thanks MP Damo

yeah but if you fold he is 1400 to your 6000 ... thats pretty much irreconcibiable loss vs a good player

[slapdash]

Re: Pop Quiz (part VIII) - Call or Fold with 72off

Looking forward to your cogitations :)

OK, I think maybe I misunderstood what you were getting at first time. But in any case, here's my simple-minded mathematician's way of thinking about this: If you fold, he has about 3.5 BB. If you call and lose, he has about 5 BB. If you call and win, it's all over. All that matters is to do whatever will make him less likely to win. So if his chance of winning with 5 BB were exactly 10/7 as high as his chance of winning with 3.5 BB (i.e., in proportion to his chips), then the decision would come down entirely to the pot odds calculation. So when you say there's a reason for calling above and beyond the pot odds calculation, you are saying that he is proportionally more likely to win with 3.5 BB than he is with 5 BB? And similarly, when you say that the fact that you'll still be ahead if you call and lose is a reason for calling above and beyond the pot odds calculation, you are saying that with slightly more than half the chips he'd be proportionally more likely to win than if he had less than half the chips? So how big a stack would make him least likely to win in proportion to his stack? Maybe you're right. I'd love to understand how your chance of winning a poker tournament depends on your stack size, but I don't. Or at least, the only situation I really understand it is the idealized situation of a heads-up where the blinds are bigger than the total chips in play, so one player is automatically all-in every hand and there's no strategy. In that case, your chance of winning is exactly proportional to your chip stack.