Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Sunday's Selections: Ascot 13.40 Curtail 1pt Ascot 13.40 Third Set 1pt Ascot 13.40 Orpsie Boy 1pt Ascot 14.10 Courageous Duke 1pt Ascot 14.10 Obrigado 1pt Ascot 14.10 Road to Love 1pt Ascot 14.10 London Express 1pt Ascot 14.40 Orientor 1pt Ascot 14.40 Excusez Moi 1pt Ascot 14.40 One more round 1pt Ascot 14.40 Golden Dixie 2pts Ascot 14.40 Kay Two 1pt Ascot 14.40 Bo McGinty 2pts Ascot 15.15 Norton 1pt Ascot 15.50 Rayhani 1pt Ascot 15.50 Peppertree 2pts Ascot 15.50 Counting House 1pt Ascot 16.25 Regal Velvet 1pt Newm 14.20 Safe Investment 2pts Newm 15.25 South Cape 1pt Newm 15.25 Minister of State 5pts Newm 16.00 Victory Spirit 1pt Newm 16.35 Mutawaffer 1pt Newm 16.35 Rhinebird 1pt Newm 16.35 Corum 3pts Newm 17.05 Warsaw Pact 2pts Pont 14.00 Bid for gold Pont 14.30 Tayman Pont 15.00 Tawaafud 1pt Pont 15.00 Truly Fruitful 1pt Pont 15.35 Rio Riva 1pt Pont 15.35 Regal Royale 1pt Pont 16.10 Mr Wolf 3pts Pont 16.45 Alhaajes 2pts Pont 17.15 Brigadore 1pt Best wishes Pinho

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Results for Sunday: Ascot 13.40 Curtail 1pt no bet unp Ascot 13.40 Third Set 1pt 2nd +0.95pts Ascot 13.40 Orpsie Boy 1pt unp +0.95 pts Ascot 14.10 Courageous Duke 1pt unp +0.95pts Ascot 14.10 Obrigado 1pt unp +0.95 pts Ascot 14.10 Road to Love 1pt 1st -3.7pts Ascot 14.10 London Express 1pt 2nd +0.95pts Ascot 14.40 Orientor 1pt unp +0.95pts Ascot 14.40 Excusez Moi 1pt NR Ascot 14.40 One more round 1pt no bet 2nd Ascot 14.40 Golden Dixie 2pts no bet 3rd Ascot 14.40 Kay Two 1pt no bet unp Ascot 14.40 Bo McGinty 2pts unp +1.78pts Ascot 15.15 Norton 1pt unp +0.95pts Ascot 15.50 Rayhani 1pt 1st -4.4pts Ascot 15.50 Peppertree 2pts 3rd +1.9pts Ascot 15.50 Counting House 1pt unp +0.95pts Ascot 16.25 Regal Velvet 1pt unp +0.95pts Newm 14.20 Safe Investment 2pts 1st -1.2pts Newm 15.25 South Cape 1pt unp +0.95pts Newm 15.25 Minister of State 5pts unp +3.25pts :clap Newm 16.00 Victory Spirit 1pt 2nd +0.95pts Newm 16.35 Mutawaffer 1pt 2nd +0.95pts Newm 16.35 Rhinebird 1pt unp +0.95pts Newm 16.35 Corum 3pts unp +0.95pts Newm 17.05 Warsaw Pact 2pts 2nd +1.9pts Pont 14.00 Bid for gold 1pt unp +0.95pts Pont 14.30 Tayman 1pt unp +0.95pts Pont 15.00 Tawaafud 1pt unp +0.95pts Pont 15.00 Truly Fruitful 1pt unp +0.95pts Pont 15.35 Rio Riva 1pt NR Pont 15.35 Regal Royale 1pt unp +0.95 pts Pont 16.10 Mr Wolf 3pts 1st -7.95pts Pont 16.45 Alhaajes 2pts unp +1.9 pts :nana (I love these tips) Pont 17.15 Brigadore 1pt unp +0.95pts Total today : +15.79pts Staked/Returned: 892.85/939.61 Yield:5.23% Total bets/won/SR: 170/136/80.00% Start Bank / Current bank : 100pts/147.69pts Alhajes didn't place, and if you look at the races that the Jockey Martin Dwyer has with this trainer B W Hills, two days ago, this same combination had produced a 3rd place with Mashaair a 3/10 favourite. I read in the valueplace website how these combinations of jockey/trainer can be used to find horses that won't try, maybe worth a look and maybe a profitable approach. With so many scandals about race fixing, I suppose there has to be a way to find non-triers. Anyway, the system is going well, even without tweaking the parameters. Tweaking the parameters would now put us above 60pts in 6 days, which is fairly nice I think. Yield now at 5%, more confortable, but still we'll have to wait for more data. Looking good, looking good!:ok Good Luck with your bets Pinho, Portugal

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Selections for Monday: Yarm 14.30 Marmaida 1pt Yarm 14.30 Frontline in Focus 6pts Yarm 15.30 Glorious Prince 1pt Yarm 15.30 Sweet Lilly 6pts Yarm 16.00 Linda's Colin 1pt Yarm 16.00 Life's a Whirl 1pt Yarm 16.00 Ciccone 1pt Yarm 16.00 Border Artist 2pts Yarm 16.00 Crimson Flame 1pt Yarm 16.30 Gambling Spirit 1pt Yarm 16.30 Beldon Hill 1pt Yarm 17.00 Rajayoga 1pt South 14.45 Pavlovia 1pt South 15.15 Watching 1pt South 15.45 Apply Dapply 2pts South 15.45 Bold Haze 1pt South 15.45 Gracie's Gift 1pt South 16.15 Tarif 1pt South 17.15 Benny the Ball 1pt Wind 18.00 Callwood Dancer 2pts Wind 19.30 Aahgowangowan 3pts Wind 19.30 Sweetest Revenge 1pt Wind 20.00 Rodeo 2pts Wind 20.00 Aryamm 3pts Wind 20.30 Hatch a Plan 1pt Wind 20.30 Kapellmeister 2pts Wind 20.30 Meelup 1pt Wind 20.30 Malakiya 1pt Uttox 19.15 Silver Dagger 1pt Uttox 19.45 Starofthemorning 1pt Uttox 20.15 Terramarique 1pt Uttox 20.15 Tinvane Rose 1pt Best wishes Pinho

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Yarm 14.30 Marmaida 1pt unp +0.95pts Yarm 14.30 Frontline in Focus 6pts 1st -10.2pts Yarm 15.30 Glorious Prince 1pt no bet unp Yarm 15.30 Sweet Lilly 6pts 1st -5.28pts Yarm 16.00 Linda's Colin 1pt 3rd +0.95pts Yarm 16.00 Life's a Whirl 1pt unp +0.95pts Yarm 16.00 Ciccone 1pt no bet unp Yarm 16.00 Border Artist 2pts 1st -7pts Yarm 16.00 Crimson Flame 1pt 2nd +0.95pts Yarm 16.30 Gambling Spirit 1pt 1st -3.4pts Yarm 16.30 Beldon Hill 1pt unp +0.95pts Yarm 17.00 Rajayoga 1pt unp +0.95pts South 14.45 Pavlovia 1pt 2nd +0.95pts South 15.15 Watching 1pt NR South 15.45 Apply Dapply 2pts unp +1.9pts South 15.45 Bold Haze 1pt unp +0.95pts South 15.45 Gracie's Gift 1pt unp +0.95pts South 16.15 Tarif 1pt 3rd +0.95pts South 17.15 Benny the Ball 1pt unp +0.95pts Wind 18.00 Callwood Dancer 2pts 2nd +0.95pts Wind 19.30 Aahgowangowan 3pts 3rd +2.85pts Wind 19.30 Sweetest Revenge 1pt no bet unp Wind 20.00 Rodeo 2pts NR Wind 20.00 Aryamm 3pts NR Wind 20.30 Hatch a Plan 1pt no bet unp Wind 20.30 Kapellmeister 2pts 2nd +1.9pts Wind 20.30 Meelup 1pt no bet unp Wind 20.30 Malakiya 1pt NR Uttox 19.15 Silver Dagger 1pt unp +0.95pts Uttox 19.45 Starofthemorning 1pt unp +0.95pts Uttox 20.15 Terramarique 1pt 1st -3.6pts Uttox 20.15 Tinvane Rose 1pt no bet unp Total today: -9.53pts Staked/returned: 1022.5/1059.79 Yield: +3.64% Total bets/won/SR:191/151/79.06% Start bank/current bank:100/137.23 It is no longer profitable to use weight of tips to affect liability. In fact, using level profit of 1pt per lay would give us 42pts and 5.9% yield, so less risk and more profit. Liabilities have been very high, betting 1000pts in 6 days is very risky I think, a bad run could really wipe out most of the profit in just one day. Either way, still in profit, so let's move on. Pinho, Portugal

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Out of curiosity, and because I hate big liabilities, I simulated the system on fixed liability of 5pts per selection, and this would mean +75.04 pts, almost double what we have at fixed profit, so I will be closing this thread after today's results and starting a new one with the new system rules. Pinho

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Well, I actually ran "Pablo system horse" on google, and it turns out Pablo asked me for money to give me his system, I prefer to lose money betting than paying for those services. But thanks anyway. Pinho, Portugal

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[Datapunter]

Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses

Pablo asked me for money to give me his system, I prefer to lose money betting

:rollin :rollin :rollin

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses NEW SYSTEM RULES: - All horses to be layed at a fixed liability of 5pts per tip. - Maximum number of tips will be 3 to ensure maximum possible liability of 15pts - Cut-Off price of 4.0 (Betfair Odds), roughly corresponds to SP of 11/4 - If a horse is above 4.0 at time of betting, leave a lay at 4.0 and wait for it to be matched, don't accept any price above 4.0 Starting again at 100pts. Fingers crossed, I hope the trend remains stable.

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[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses

Selection will be made when a horse is tipped by 5 or more newspapers.

I note that your results & P/L include selections with less than the "5 or more" tipsters. Is there a reason these are being included? Sorry if it's already been suggested, but instead of using websites like RacingPost to ID the number of tipsters, thereby determining your selections, what about using 'Massey' i.e. LAY horses that are rated 3rd or higher AND within a certain Odds range.

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Hello Thunderfoot, thanks for the input. The selection method I was using before the first post really was counting tips on the RP, but I'm now using a different method, that's why I'm putting up selections with only 1 tip. After 200 bets I noticed that all the value was at short priced horses, above 4.0 price on betfair liabilities were too high for the return it was giving. I also simulated different staking plans and discovered that the most profitable was the one I am using now, as was outlined on post #41 yesterday. I don't want to manipulate the system after the events happened and that's why I started from 100pts again with this different staking plan. This is because I found the system to be extremely profitable up to Betfair prices of 4.0. Just to give you an idea, and in the period of 6 days where I recorded prices for the win market, the system returned +112.78pts, of which: below evens: 71.13pts evens to 3.0: -4.93pts 3.0 to 4.0: 46.57pts Yield was 18.48%, and total selections were 76, Strike Rate 71%. No, I am not insane, the selections are there for you to see, just do the maths, I am as surprised as anyone else that this system would have given +100pts in 6 days. It could be that this is a remarkable coincidence, but today the system performed flawlessly again, I am posting results in a while. Best wishes Pinho

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[thunderfoot]

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Hello again, the selection method is the key and the most stupid part of this system. All I'm doing is going to the Sportinglife website and checking the racecards. They show tipped horses (not all favourites or short priced horses have tips, thank god!), and number of tips. If number of tips is more than 3 I just round it to 3, then the next day I look for horses within the list that are at 4.0 or lower. Simple! And those tipsters are really bad, look at the return this system is giving! Anyway, yesterday I was toying with the excel file where I kept the selections and today I had a go at very small stakes (1 euro per point) and actually made 27.2 euros. But today was the most unlucky betting day in my life and I've slapped myself in the face a dozen times. I have a backing system that I follow, really simple, backing Massey's top rated horses and today I ran into a selection at odds of 80 on betfair. I thought, nah, I'll waste my money here, it will never win. Well, the horse was Duke's View and it won at 50-1 SP, and I would have made a load of money. It is the first time that this system produces a 50-1 winner in 5 years, but what the hell, I won on Danny Cash system, on the tennis qualifiers and a few extra on the tipsters. By the way, the very simple backing system that I use is backing horses with SP>11-1, that are one of the 3 top rated on races where the top rated is 3 stars or more. It shows a steady yield of more than 10% over the past years, and it throws up 3/4 selections per day . Let's hope the tipsters keep doing this bad on short priced horses and we'll make lots of money here. Pinho

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Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses And the no bet were horses that were over 4.0 on betfair, on some I placed lays of 4.0 that were not matched.

[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses Cheers 'P' ..... why is it that the simple systems always seem to be the best :hope ;) :lol . Me being dim I think, but can't find the 'tipsters' on SportingLife racecards, where are they 'buried'? Found them 'buried' on RacingPost ..... would they be the same?

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Re: Lay the Tipsters Thunderfoot: On each racecard you have several tabs, Form, Horse, etc, the NAPS tab lists the number of tips that the horses have. Not all of them are tipped, and not every race has tips. They go through several newspapers and simply list the tipped horses. Real simple stuff (and profitable it seems!). Pinho

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[thunderfoot]

[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters ...... which begs the question ..... why aren't your selections the same as mine?? Does it depend on when the data is obtained from SportingLife?? For instance, I've got more selections & Tipsters in the 15:15 at Goodwood. Aahh! You 'Cap' Tipsters at 3 :$, but I've still got more selections in that race.

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Re: Lay the Tipsters I eliminated horses that had betting forecasts higher than 6-1, that's why you have more than me, those below 4.0 will be the same I suppose. I am looking at the racecards usually at midnight, only today did I go through them in the morning.

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[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Hi 'P' How come you don't have 'Scottish Stage' for yesterday ... 2.64 LAY odds!! I never got 'Fadad', 'Heaven Sent' & 'Ebert', the odds being 4.10, 4.40 & 4.50 respectively, just outside the 4.00 trigger. When did you manage to get the odds you show, early, just before the off or In-Play? Think you're right about these tipsters being 'crap'. I looked at this system of staking more the more a horse is tipped, and it didn't seem logical to me as I would have thought that the more a horse was tipped the 'stronger' it would be to win a race. After all if a horse was tipped by 6 or 7 tipsters you would think "well they all can't be wrong". This should then be an indicator of 'strength' of a bet and logically you'd risk less money on 'stronger' tip to win and more on a 'weaker' tip to win i.e. £15 on a horse tipped once and £5 on a horse tipped more than 3 times ('thrice' isn't it!!;) ). However, you've tipped-this-on-it's-head and gone the other way, and the data so far backs this staking strategy. Be interesting to see how this staking system goes in the long run.

[maria]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

I looked at this system of staking more the more a horse is tipped' date=' and it didn't seem logical to me as I would have thought that the more a horse was tipped the 'stronger' it would be to win a race. After all if a horse was tipped by 6 or 7 tipsters you would think "well they all can't be wrong".[/quote'] Please excuse my chipping in here, Thunderfoot, but I think you might be assuming (as many people do) a correlation between a horse's probability of winning a race and the overall profit-expectation of backing it. People who lay for a living will tell you that the opposite is often so. The "concealed point" is that as the horse's winning chances increase, the value in backing it decreases exponentially. And what determines this is partly the number of tipsters who have tipped it. To try a numerate example: you are making the point that a horse with a 60% chance of winning is a better bet (for backing) than a horse with only a 40% chance of winning. The reality, in my opinion, is the opposite. The horse with the 40% chance of winning will be available at a far better price which will lose less money in the long run. The one with the 60% chance of winning will be priced like one with an 80% chance should be, and the true value is in laying it. This is all connected with why it's virtually impossible to make a living out of backing favourites, and high strike-rate systems have a much lower POI than low strike-rate systems. What underlies the idea on which this thread is based is that the very thing that makes the backing value so poor is the horse being over-touted by tipsters, and the fact that the public (or the majority of the losing punters, anyway) allow themselves to be influenced by these tipsters, with the result that the value collapses, thus making laying them long-term the profitable course. It's not about price. It's about value. Logic (and experience) suggest that the more tipsters have promoted them, the better the laying value is ... ;)

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Re: Lay the Tipsters Hello Thunderfoot, as I explained yesterday, I place my bets around 1PM British Time (actually noon where I live) because I cannot be in front of the computer every day. That's why I suppose I didn't lay the same horses as you. In the long run it will make a difference to lay them just before the off, because I believe most of these horses will steam. (edited drift to steam) Ebert, in the 19.30 race at Epsom, was available to Lay at 4.4 when I placed my bets, I left a Lay at 4.0 and it was matched and it had a SP of 15/8, so it's just an example. Probably the opposite occurs on other horses, I have to simulate my betting pattern, can't get around it, but as I said before it is possible to get much better prices than what I'm getting if you wait to just before the Off. maria: I believe you are absolutely right and it was this analysis that led me to start this thread after reading a post by another person on laying a particular tipster. I do believe there is a lot of value to be had and it is obvious that these horses are steaming in close to the Off because of the "tipped horse" value. I don't know the first thing about form or horses, never been to a race before, but I do think that this psychological aspect of the average punter backing the tipped horses will drive the market down and give value to a laying strategy. I also have another theory about fixed races, but that is a bit "conspiracy theory" and I don't think it much that makes sense so I won't say it. But it is strange that horses below evens that are tipped seem to lose more than the others. This system produced a 1.17 loser this week, I hope it produces much more. Good Luck Pinho Best wishes

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[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

.... the horse being over-touted by tipsters' date=' and the fact that the public (or the majority of the losing punters, anyway) allow themselves to be influenced by these tipsters, with the result that the value collapses[/quote'] Agree totally ..... but you'd think 6 or 7 tipsters touting a horse would be a good bet (not neccessarily value), whatever the price.;) ;)

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Re: Lay the Tipsters The only book I read on horses is "Against ths Odds", and the idea you get when reading that book is that you only win if you go against the crowd. And it seems the crowd really goes with the tipsters (let's hope so for many months to come).