Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Thanks WFTE, I'll check it and post the different stats after 2 weeks in the system.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Here are several stats for the first two weeks, simulating that this staking plan had been followed from the start. These are not system results, they are just stats. Total Bets 164 Strike Rate: 69.5% Average Odds: 2.93 Average Losing Odds: 2.54 Virtual bank using fixed liability of 5pt per tip (max 15 pt liability): +296.75 pts (Yield 13.22%) Virtual bank using fixed liability of 5pt per horse: +212.15pts (Yield 13.25%) Virtual bank using fixed profit of 1 pt per tip (max 15 pt liability): +154.92pts (Yield 10.14%) Virtual bank using fixed profit of 1 pt per horse: +135.88pts (Yield 11.07%)

[pinhofap]

[pinhofap]

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Most tipped reversed staking strategy ( Nat Hunt ) To increase profit potential we now need to examin the other obvious staking strategy. We know for a fact that 'most tipped' start at a lower price than they should be, therefore it's also a fact that the other 1 or 2 short priced runners in the race are a slightly longer price than they should be. To capitolise on this we need the 'shape' of the betting to fit. We don't want the top 4 in the betting to be all between 4.5-6.00 we need it to be something like 'most tipped' 2.00 2nd fav 4.00 3rdfav 6.00 we put on our usual 1point lay on 'most tipped',then a quarter point back on both 2nd & 3rd favs. If 'most tipped' wins we lose 1.5 points. If 'most tipped' under performs, during the race, our two backs now have 80% of the remaining book, with only the nearly useless 'rags' to beat.We can then win a average .75 extra points (less commission) on top of the usual 1 point lay profit. With 3 runners involved, we need the extra time National Hunt races provide, to be able to adequately trade 'in-running'. Those most familiar with ,in-running would lose less/win more per race, on average, an activity I once thought beyond my capeabilities. I try to avoid any remaining red ink,(often not always possible) by the time they jump the 2nd last. WE ARE NOT INTRESTED...WE ONLY WANT THE MAJESTICLY BEAUTIFULL ALL GREEN SCREEN- NOTHING ELSE !.....any for or against reasoned views, on the above, will be gratefully recieved....the harder we work-the luckier we get...........Sunshine

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Sunshine Avenue, thanks for the input, I'll search the results to see if I come up any interesting stats on this. Pinho

[pinhofap]

[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Most tipped reversed staking strategy ( Nat Hunt ) To increase profit potential we now need to examin the other obvious staking strategy. We know for a fact that 'most tipped' start at a lower price than they should be, therefore it's also a fact that the other 1 or 2 short priced runners in the race are a slightly longer price than they should be. To capitolise on this we need the 'shape' of the betting to fit. We don't want the top 4 in the betting to be all between 4.5-6.00 we need it to be something like 'most tipped' 2.00 2nd fav 4.00 3rdfav 6.00 we put on our usual 1point lay on 'most tipped',then a quarter point back on both 2nd & 3rd favs. If 'most tipped' wins we lose 1.5 points. If 'most tipped' under performs, during the race, our two backs now have 80% of the remaining book, with only the nearly useless 'rags' to beat.We can then win a average .75 extra points (less commission) on top of the usual 1 point lay profit. With 3 runners involved, we need the extra time National Hunt races provide, to be able to adequately trade 'in-running'. Those most familiar with ,in-running would lose less/win more per race, on average, an activity I once thought beyond my capeabilities. I try to avoid any remaining red ink,(often not always possible) by the time they jump the 2nd last. WE ARE NOT INTRESTED...WE ONLY WANT THE MAJESTICLY BEAUTIFULL ALL GREEN SCREEN- NOTHING ELSE !.....any for or against reasoned views, on the above, will be gratefully recieved....the harder we work-the luckier we get...........Sunshine

An interesting strategy .... would love to see some 'numbers' showing it in action.;)

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Pricewise / Tom Segal Race For The Stars 2.30 Goodwood 1pt win @ 18-1 with ***** (16-1 B365, Bluebear, Boyles, James & Viktor) Tax Free 3.05 Goodwood 2pts win @ 8-1 with B365, Boyles & James (7-1 Billy, & Bluebear, 13-2 Joe , 6-1 Badblokes) One More Round 3.05 Goodwood 1pt win @ 16-1 generally

THIS WEEK'S PRICEWISE SELECTIONS ARE: Wise Owl 3.00 Ascot: currently 11/1 Fairmile 3.20 Haydock: currently 7/1 Seulement 3.40 Newmarket: currently 13/2 I hope you find this useful.:hope

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Traf: thank you very much for your input, will look at the price movements on those horses. Today was a bloody nightmare for the system though, St Favourite's Day or something.

[pinhofap]

[pinhofap]

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Traf: thank you very much for your input, will look at the price movements on those horses. Today was a bloody nightmare for the system though, St Favourite's Day or something.

Unbelievable amounts of favourites won today, except Chicken Soup, because I backed it!:wall I've backed Pricewise's selections at the prices i've quoted with a view to just laying them off tomorrow for a small, but guaranteed profit. What kind of yield would you think i could make on his selections by just backing and laying?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Lay the Tipsters I was just going to add that Chicken Soup was a nice touch though and guess what - favourite in a handicap!

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Traf: I have no idea, and the fact is the price movements on the tipped horses are not that predictable as I first expected. Backing at 1PM and laying before the off seems the best strategy, but the market should have liquidity, at least 103% overround. Pricewise is one of the most famous tipsters, so his selections should show a profit, but I have no idea how much yield. As for backing the selections in-running as Sunshine Avenue explained, I know have mixed feelings about it. I did it 2 days ago and realized that I will back most horses that finish second in-play, so no profit on them. Yesterday I didn't do it, and I'm sure I would have lost less money if I had done it. I'll keep an eye on it, it should make you lose less when you find a winner, but on the other hand you are not going to make money on the horses that finish second. In the long run it is probably profitable. A good in-play strategy that I was able to do yesterday was to lay one horse (between 3.5-6.0 is the best range) before the off and then back it in-play as soon as he shows any kind of improvement or stays in front of the race. If he started at 4.5 and dropped below 3.5 I would immediately back him with the same stake. It worked fine, even hitting a couple of winners yesterday, the important part is to back as soon as possible to minimize a potential loss, because when horses under-perform, their odds won't drop, and you win the whole lay stake. Very simple and it works fine. I usually do it on races that don't fall within the system, and it is good to have a race with lots of horses under 10.0 to ensure it is a balanced race, because if there is a very hot favourite, all the money will be on him, and you can have a surprise, like odds on your horse going from 8.0 to 1.5 in one second (I've seen it happen). Today has to be a good day! Pinho

[Potato88]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Hi pinhofap Thanks for your system, have tried this today starting from 14:45 and stopped at 15:50. Have won 13 lays out of 14! The one that happened to have won was Dorothy's Friend and had 3 tips on it. I used fixed bet rather than fixed liability today and have made 20% increase to my bankroll today. Many thanks Potato88

[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

THIS WEEK'S PRICEWISE SELECTIONS ARE: Wise Owl 3.00 Ascot: currently 11/1 Fairmile 3.20 Haydock: currently 7/1 Seulement 3.40 Newmarket: currently 13/2

Wise Owl SP = 13/2 :clap Fairmile SP = 7/2 :clap Seulement = 5/1 :clap Well don 'traf' .... I reckon you did well today. If you were brave and placed £100 on each I reckon you must be about £130/£140 up ;) . As 'Pricewise' only posts his selections on the Racingpost website at weekends (Saturday only I think!!), does anyone know where they can be obtained from during the week. Do I have to spend money and buy the RacingPost paper!!!;) Might be worth starting a 'sticky' if they can be found during the week, and posted here.

[Potato88]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Damn, I should have carried on. Royal Island, Pentecost and Appalachian Trail all lost on the 16:10 Ascot. :wall

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters I wasn't brave enough to put £100 on each, just split a £100 between them and made £45.

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: Lay the Tipsters A suitably profitable, most entertaining day ! I know 95% of us are aware that RUK & ATR are near 3 seconds behind SIS ( just for the 5% ) Good job the trading screen is real time. Pity SIS costs £6,300+vat. Anyone ever sat in Willy Hills, with their lap-top & been asked to leave the premises ? It's all good clean fun, same again tomorrow, liquidity permitting......Sunshine

[pinhofap]

[Potato88]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Hi again Wow, I wished I carried on with the rest of the lays because I would have won more apart from the horse 'Star Sign'. I was already in profit so I guess it was right to risk the lay on the rest of the day. Thanks for the tips and yes you're right, I should have done a paper trial instead. I had a look at Danny Cash's system but they were scary to put money on, will read the other suggestions now. Good luck with your system, I hope it works out as you've obviously just started it a few weeks ago. Well done and keep up the good work, a few tweaks and you'll have a winning strategy. :ok Potato88

[pinhofap]

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Hi Guys, Most Tipped has other parallels, from which I've learned, earlier in the year I layed R.Post 'Training Centres' black type selections-results; 263 sel's 54 won 20%. profit 17.8 pts (1pt stake) 209 correct lays(80% srike rate) ( about a third were unlayable, because of big prices ) The place lays are the 'place' to be, results; 120 placed 45%, (55%not placed) profit 21.4pts The same snags apply, the win lays can't be operated by any sane person, massive volativity,so it is a place only job, but we can't trade 'in-running'. In run is my main target area. Won on 'Training Centres' 75% of the days operated,but like 'Most Tipped' bad days are bad ! I thought the profit rather high & non sustainable, long term. Volativity is a tough scene, yesterday their column picked Mulaqat 25/1 Dorotheys Friend, Sri Peckan, Young Mick & Noble Gent, plus a paultry 7 losers...crying game Partly as a result of my experiances in this & similar areas, I always seek to smooth out big profit/big loss areas, this is the only way forward. Dare say most of us are familiar with Drop the Donkey site, you can't put more than a 1% of bank on each , the results look good, but take away betfar 'comm' + often fail to get best price, not a lot in it. For people who want numbers concerning 'Most Tipped' (backing next 2 in betting, where suitable) next door to impossible to acess ,just add up the % chance of each back,will of course give us the strike rate,commission, would take most or even all of it away,but individuals who put more effort in, will get more out, be it trading before the race,to get green ink, in-run action, better gear,big compressor,memory,wireless enabled 2nd screen,fastest connection speed,fastest brain, fastest finguers etc, theres never going to be a big edge anywhere, we have to work with low % profit, but if we put enough on.........enough said. All the fun of the fair Sunshine.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters And that's what I always try to have: fun! This is not a job, this is a hobby, and if I am able to make some money from it, great. But that part is also important, not getting obssessed with gambling. I'm going out to have a nice lunch today with the family, so I won't have time to record prices, I'll use 110% of SP to provide results in the evening. Good Luck everyone and have fun! Pinho

[pinhofap]

[jubblyjimbo]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

A suitably profitable, most entertaining day ! I know 95% of us are aware that RUK & ATR are near 3 seconds behind SIS ( just for the 5% ) Good job the trading screen is real time. Pity SIS costs £6,300+vat. Anyone ever sat in Willy Hills, with their lap-top & been asked to leave the premises ? It's all good clean fun, same again tomorrow, liquidity permitting......Sunshine

Is there a radio station dedicated to live UK racing? Thanks, Jim

[Potato88]

Re: Lay the Tipsters OK, it was bad of me but I laid just one horse today because the odds were lower than the rest, but then again that was the favourite and could have easily won. Redcar, 14:40. Love on Sight. Didn't win so I won my lay. :tongue2 In future, I'll stick with the other systems such as Danny's. Thanks again for the heads up.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Potato88, good for you, I'm glad! Betting is about choices, it's not like you can't read the thread and decide to bet, I was only giving you advice, sometimes a system will perform well only for a month or so during years, although I don't think this is the case, but it's up to everyone to make their decisions, and if you won, great! But take a look at the results of two days ago and you'll see why this is still under test. Good Luck Pinho

[Potato88]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Yep I totally agree with you, hopefully you're system will be a long term winner. Keep up the good work. Definitely not doing anymore tomorrow, will read more threads before placing money on it. (It was only a £2 lay so not so bad).