Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Selecção Probabilidades Parada (EUR) Tipo de licitação Colocada Lucro/prejuízo (EUR) Kibara 2' date='68 50,00 Apostar a favor 05-Ago-06 12:25 -50,00 Kibara * 2,21 69,32 Apostar contra 69,32 *Média de probabilidades: On Off Sub-total de apostas a favor: -50,00 Sub-total de apostas contra: 69,32 Sub-total do mercado: 19,32 Comissão @ 4.76%: 0,92 Total Líquido do Mercado: 18,40

Os Ganhos e Perdas mostrados são valores líquidos depois de comissão. Todas as horas sãoUKT ? excepto indicação em contrário.

Sorry about it being in Portuguese, but I think you get the picture. Best wishes, search google for "trade betfair" and you should get some nice tutorials.

If Kibara had won the race, you would have won 80 after commission, but lost 84 on the lay. With my figures you're guaranteed a profit.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters I'm afraid that's not right. The Commission is calculated after total profit or loss of the market, so I would have won 84, lost 84 on the lay, net outcome zero, commission zero, profit after comm zero. The commission is applied only after adding the back and Lay, to ensure that if you lose after that result is found, you are not paying comm on a market where you lost money. This trade was "manual", when I used BetAngel, I am locking the same profit whatever the outcome, although I could be assigning weight of bet to the odds of the horse I'm betting on. If the horse has odds of 3, 1/3 total profit if he wins, 2/3 if he doesn't win, etc. I prefer to use the same profit whatever the outcome. Today the trades didn't go so well because I didn't choose the horses with more tips, if I had done so I would have made a profit again. I would advise anyone wanting to do this to back early in the morning, before the first prices are up, and choosing horses with more than one tip. In races where there is more than one horse with 2 or 3 tips, either don't bet or select the one with more tips. It is not a good idea to trade in races where there are joint favourites (I found this the hard way, today...) The system is not doing so well today (again).

[maria]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

By laying a price that is smaller than the one you backed you make a profit no matter what the outcome of the race is.

Indeed. Because commission is settled on a "per event basis". I think this may be the point that traf hasn't quite taken into account, hence your mutual misunderstanding here, guys. I aim not to criticise anyone, naturally, but to promote "penny-dropping" because I have seen this very misunderstanding underlie countless other differences of opinion (particularly in a laying thread I've been compiling for a year now, in which it's surprised me many, many times how often even experienced users of the exchanges - and the exchanges are all the same in this regard - don't quite appreciate from what figures the commissions are deducted!). Hope this helps ... :)

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Yes, I suppose it does help, and misunderstandings are always good to learn. I suppose we all learn with each other and this forum is great because of that. Since I started reading this forum I went from occasional winnings and bad money management to consistent small profits, and this is because I learned from other more experienced people. And Traf has also contributed to this thread and his remarks are obviously always very welcome!

[pinhofap]

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters OK folks, I stand corrected! It must be these orthopaedic shoes!:rollin

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Laying 'Most Tipped' , sometimes a selection is a frightening price, dependant on the race distance & horses running style, we can of course, back them 'in-running' if it looks like they will be in the 'shake-up' Once the 'in-running green blob lights up, we can putin any offsetting price we like, or double or more the original lay. Extra bets are placeable to fast figuers. Betting tools software, trailing stop loss etc,etc. Takes hundreds of races to get used to it, though. With most tipped, we know the runners are slightly shorter price than they should be. In theory badly drawn, 'most tipped' h'cap runners in sprints, should show the best results........Smokey

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Traf: It seems Pricewise tips are really a good way of predicting the steamers, and I think you have access to the tips the day before. You can take advantage of that by backing the horses early in the morning, and laying them before the off. On Saturday it produced a nice steamer, maybe you should check it for a couple of days. Sunshine Avenue: My compliments to you for bringing up for the first time on the thread that the tipsters produce good trading material, it may be the best thing this system produces, horses that drop in price.

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Cheers guys. I got yesterday's pricewise selections from the massively-inferior betfair forum. Am I right in thinking Pricewise only tips on Saturdays?

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters I don't know, but I suppose from WORKINGFORTHEENEMY's post.

[bl32]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Pinhofap: Any thoughts on the strategy to employ when your selection after the initial backing drifts upward rather than downwards. For example backed at $2.10 early and drifted upward to $2.50 just before post. Regards. Bill

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Hello Bill, this will depend on personal stop-loss strategy and risk assesment. If the horse is short-priced a change from 1.7 to 1.8 does not harm you that much. If you backed at 5.0 and the horse is now at 6.0 it will sting. I have found that trading is not that easy for me because I tend to stress a bit if a trade goes against me, so the main thing is to keep calm and always know how much you are willing to lose, meaning, you could build a chart on excel with different price ranges and stipulating stop loss prices if you back a horse at a given price so that you will never lose more than the amount you are willing to risk. This way you won't make rushed decisions like I did yesterday on one horse where I lost money, but that actually steamed again and would have given a small profit. One thing I've noticed is that the "tipped horse factor" will drive the price down on the final 5/10 minutes before the off, even if the price goes up during the day a bit it will on most occasions drop again a few minutes before the off. I would advise you to paper trade for a while until you get used to price moves and use a freeware trading program to see weight of money to know the best time to close position. Sometimes it is the last minute to the off and you start to see money pilling up on the back side, so it's time to close position. I'm not an expert but when the price goes up or down heavily, it tends to go down or up a bit as a responde of people (all these people laying the horse, I must lay it also!, price goes up too much, people see value in backing it, price drops a bit). There are some good tutorials online about trading, and those familiar with the stock markets and day-trading probably know this better than anyone. Hope this helps, lots of mambo-jumbo, if you have any questions I'll help all I can but as I said I'm not an expert on trading... Pinho

[pinhofap]

[bl32]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Pinho: Many, many thanks for your kind suggestions and thoughts in reply to my post. It was most appreciated. I have read many, many forums over the past couple of years and this site is undoubtedly the best hands down. Thoughtful insite, willing helping hands and a great group of contributors. Regards. Bill

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Best wishes bl32, watch the horses with more tips, today a couple are drifting, but yesterday all of them steamed. Good Luck Pinho

[pinhofap]

[pinhofap]

[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

P/L today: +73.34 pts:loon

... and this was reflected in the earlier theory of BACKing at early odds and LAYing at 'just before the off' odds. Just so happens I made a record yesterday of Betfairs BACK odds at 09:00, Mid-Morning, Lunch-time and 1 Hr before the off, then made a note of Betfairs LAY odds at 10 minutes & 1 minute to go. The other problem I found was that the money just was not available to BACK i.e. usually less than £30 - £50, until well after lunch (13:00 Hr'ish) Result - BIG losses no matter when you made the BACK bet. All the Odds on all the selections went 'north'!!!;)

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Not all of them, but most of them. You have to filter the selections. But what about favourites on a race, where there are no joint favourites (difference to the second horse at least 1.0) and tipped? Those are shortening in price. In fact a whole trading strategy can be built upon backing hot favourites (under 3.0) in the late morning (enough liquidity already, at least 103% market, generous amounts of money on the horse you're backing, or else you can have surprises) and then laying them before the off.

[pinhofap]

[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Not all of them' date=' but most of them. You have to filter the selections. But what about favourites on a race, where there are no joint favourites (difference to the second horse at least 1.0) and tipped? Those are shortening in price. In fact a whole trading strategy can be built upon backing hot favourites (under 3.0) in the late morning (enough liquidity already, at least 103% market, generous amounts of money on the horse you're backing, or else you can have surprises) and then laying them before the off.[/quote'] By Filtering the Odds to those of 6.00 & under to BACK at Lunch-Time, and assuming money available was £100, and LAYing £100 just before the off then the return was circa £22.00 (not allowing for Betfair commission) ..... lota work ('n stress ;) ) for a low return!!!

Date	Course	Race Time	Selection	Tipsters	Lunch Time BACK Odds	1 Min to OFF - LAY Odds	Place	Profit / Loss
07-Aug	Ripn	14:20	Codeword	4	1.94	2.54	4	-£23.62
07-Aug	Ripn	15:20	Ice Planet	5	3.95	4.40	4	-£10.23
07-Aug	Ripn	15:20	Knot In Wood	2	5.40	5.70	3	-£5.26
07-Aug	Ripn	16:20	Phebe	2	3.20	2.70	6	£18.52
07-Aug	Ripn	16:50	Gigs Magic	1	3.30	2.92	6	£13.01
07-Aug	Wind	17:55	Kyles Prince	2	3.80	3.60	7	£5.56
07-Aug	Wind	17:55	Zilcash	1	3.95	3.85	4	£2.60
07-Aug	Carl	18:10	Uhuru Peak	1	5.50	5.50	1	£0.00
07-Aug	Wind	18:25	Abbotts Ann	2	2.26	2.74	2	-£17.52
07-Aug	Wind	18:55	Harrison´s Flyer	1	5.60	5.50	5	£1.82
07-Aug	Carl	19:40	Bauer	5	1.91	1.65	3	£15.76
07-Aug	Wind	19:55	Valverde	2	1.91	1.75	2	£9.14
07-Aug	Carl	20:10	Sedge	1	4.10	4.10	2	£0.00
07-Aug	Wind	20:25	Semenovskii	1	5.50	5.10	6	£7.84
07-Aug	Carl	20:40	Boy Dancer	3	3.75	3.60	8	£4.17

Early days ..... didn't do the same exercise today (no time), but will try again later in the week. P.S. I did write my earlier post before I had the later results, forgot I didn't have them all :$ . These later one's (after 1830 Hrs) are based on the SP + about 10% for Betfair + 1 or 2 ticks because I wanted LAY odds. Good job the later one's turned GREEN.

[pinhofap]

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters And it is very important to have a stop-loss price if the trade goes against you, I would never back a horse at 3.45 and watch the price go to 4.9, I would bail out at 4.1 maximum. That part is most important, not waiting the price to drop by miracle in 3 minutes. However, if the change is small, it is best to wait, because the backers will tend to drive the price down. Now this takes time to get used to, that's why I advised paper trading first, it is not a formula, it's an indication of trend.

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Very important to smoothout the loss on 'mosttipped' that win (without our permission !) in-running is my favourite area. Also handy to trade runners, where possible, then 'green-up'. This helps at least to offset the Betfair rip-off. Real important long term. Commission is literaly a killer.......Sunshine

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Hello Sunshine, you don't make many comments but those you make are very important. I have been watching the races and I haven't seen any of these tipped horses go to very low odds in running (under 1.5) and lose, meaning, they will start at say 2.5, stay there for most of the race, maybe go as down as 2.0 or 1.7ish but then slowly drift away and when you see them at 3.0 you almost know they will lose. If it goes the other way around, and if you see them go below 1.5 you can have a bet ready at 1.01 waiting for you to hit the enter key and back them in running at whatever stake you think is right. Practical example could be: Horse layed at odds of 3.0 for 10 points liability Horse backed in running at odds of 1.25 (you fire the 1.01 bet when you see the horse go below 1.5 in-running) 10 points. This will mean you lose 7.5 points if the horse wins the race or zero if he ends up not winning it. It happens sometimes that 1.05 horses lose, but it doesn't happen often. This techinque will be difficult to apply in sprints because the odds are changing very fast, but in longer races should work fine. On the other hand, if the favourite has odds of 1.7 it is best to "risk" because the potential winnings are bigger than the potential losses, and to trade out the horse in play you would have to do it at very low odds, I don't think it's worth it. But for the 2.0 up horses it's an excellent idea, your comment was excelent Sunshine Avenue, thanks for the input!

[pinhofap]

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Price movements for the afternoon horses that were favourites, and fell within the system parameters (at 1PM had odds of 4.0 or less):

Horse	1PM	1 min Off
Free Offer	1.3	1.2
Superior Star	2.76	2.46
Leo McGarry	1.74	1.56
Factual Lad	3.1	2.6
Royal Jet	4	3.1
Scarlet Flyer	2.44	2.6
Alhaitham	1.63	1.7

The last two horses had strange price movements and both ended up with lower odds than at 1PM, but I chose to trade out with a small loss, since both races started 3/4 minutes after the Official Time. Alambic in the 20.15 at Yarmouth was available to back at 1.7 at 4PM.

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Pinho, yes in running non-h'cap sprints particularly difficult area, even if not so well drawn. However in h'cap sprints, far harder to get round the draw. We can mostly lay then back at favourable odds, as they are invariably, off the pace, or behind a wall of horses. Your comments on the in-running run down of the price is correct, and also applies to novice hurdles.......Sunshine

[pinhofap]

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Lay the Tipsters It seems youve got it sussed now but this is how I worked out whether to lay for a fixed loss or fixed profit. After gaining x amount of data, find out the average lay price and the average lay price for losing bets(winning horses). If the average lay price is higher than the average losing price then youre better off laying fixed profit. Lay price lower and vise versa. This is as if its shorties winning then you only payout small on losses . If bigger prices are winning then you lose the same whatever but are only missing small profits and collecting the big ones.