Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts

[maria]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

I don't know the first thing about form or horses' date=' never been to a race before, but I do think that this psychological aspect of the average punter backing the tipped horses will drive the market down and give value to a laying strategy. I also have another theory about fixed races, but that is a bit "conspiracy theory" and I don't think it much that makes sense so I won't say it. But it is strange that horses below evens that are tipped seem to lose more than the others.[/quote'] I think that you and I have perhaps quite a bit in common in our ideas. I talk elsewhere even about the "conspiracy theory" aspects of this and I find that nobody takes any notice of me anyway (which isn't such a bad thing, and eventually I will perhaps learn to do as you do, and say less!). But I think they are issues that won't go away, and over the next few years we will gradually hear more and more about it anyway. Meanwhile, I wish you very well with your thread here, I have a good feeling about it and am watching with interest and thinking about its possible application to one of my own systems. Bonne chance! ... :dude

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Well, I work shifts and I have to go away now, but I was able to record the difference in prices at 1PM and before the Off of the following horses: Is it me - 1.73 at 1PM; 1.66 before the off Red Evie - 3.5 at 1PM; 3 before the off No Grouse - 4.7 at 1PM; 4.2 before the off (I had a lay bet of 4.0 matched, but it drifted out to 4.2 just before the off) Dunelight - 5.5 at 1PM; 4.9 before the off Mandingo Chief - 2.68 at 1PM, currently 2.56 but was 2.46 just 3 mins ago Yesterday, Ebert went from 4.5 to 2.98. Those of you familiar with trading will realize that using 100 pounds to trade these horses, today we would be up 40 pounds, and this has nothing to do with the system itself, but could be considered as another opportunity to profit from tipped horses. Best wishes, I'm off to work Pinho

[thunderfoot]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Well, I work shifts and I have to go away now, but I was able to record the difference in prices at 1PM and before the Off of the following horses: Is it me - 1.73 at 1PM; 1.66 before the off Red Evie - 3.5 at 1PM; 3 before the off No Grouse - 4.7 at 1PM; 4.2 before the off (I had a lay bet of 4.0 matched, but it drifted out to 4.2 just before the off) Dunelight - 5.5 at 1PM; 4.9 before the off Mandingo Chief - 2.68 at 1PM, currently 2.56 but was 2.46 just 3 mins ago Yesterday, Ebert went from 4.5 to 2.98. Those of you familiar with trading will realize that using 100 pounds to trade these horses, today we would be up 40 pounds, and this has nothing to do with the system itself, but could be considered as another opportunity to profit from tipped horses. Best wishes, I'm off to work Pinho

Great minds think alike .... started looking at this myself ..... the influence of 'tipsters' perhaps!!!;)

[maria]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

you'd think 6 or 7 tipsters touting a horse would be a good bet (not neccessarily value)' date=' whatever the price.[/quote'] We must agree to differ, I'm afraid: personally I would think the opposite. But for me, value is the sole indicator of the "goodness" or "badness" of a bet. Good luck! ... :eek

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters More horses that steamed: Mandingo Chief - from 2.68 to a SP of 5/4 (betfair 2.45 I think) Buachaill Dona and Loch Verdi remained very much the same. Leo McGarry- didn't record prices Zaafran - from 3.9 at 5PM to 3.1 at Off Audit - drifted from 4 at 5PM to 4.5 at Off Uno - drifted from 1.95 to 2.02 at Off For traders using 100 pounds and 5% comm on Betfair, this would mean: Is it me: +4 pounds after comm Red Evie: +15.83 pounds No Grouse: +16.61 pounds Dunelight: +11.63 pounds Mandingo Chief: +8.91 pounds Zaafran: +24.51 pounds Audit: -11.11 pounds Uno: -3.46 pounds This totals 66.92 pounds of risk free betting. So if there are any traders reading this thread, look closely at these horses because they seem to be consistent steamers, I had noticed this on several horses comparing the prices I took to the SP, but had no real numbers. It makes sense that they are steamers, since they are the ones that more people will be backing. Also, this means that it is important in my system to catch the prices as near to the Off as possible, since that will mean more profit. It looks as the best strategy is to back the horses 3-4 hours before the off, then trade for a profit no matter what the outcome a few minutes before the off, and then place the regular Lay bet. Results for today to follow in a while Pinho

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters As another advice to people wanting to trade using these horses, the price droped very heavily on the final 15/20 minutes before the start, so if the horse has a similar price to the one you backed just wait until 1/2 minutes before the off. I also noticed that the two horses that drifted today, actually after they drifted a lot the price dropped again in the final 10 minutes before the off. I doubt it that tipped horses will be heavy drifters, but it could happen once in a while. I will go to the list of horses since the thread started and compare prices I took to SP to see if the pattern is steady.

[pinhofap]

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Those of you familiar with trading will realize that using 100 pounds to trade these horses, today we would be up 40 pounds, and this has nothing to do with the system itself, but could be considered as another opportunity to profit from tipped horses.

Im not sure if there still is but there always used to be a thread on the Betfair forum about Pricewises tips. Apperently someone had earlier access to the RP than most and found out Pricewises tips. These are renowned for being backed, especially when he's on a good streak. I work at Ladbrokes and we now get Pricewises tips as part of our daily trading principles. If you can get on his selections as early as possible there's a huge profit to be made usually. Ladbrokes guarentee their odds for the 1st 15mins of opening. If you check to see whats been cut on a Saturday by 10:15 its nearly always Pricewise's tips.

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Pricewise / Tom Segal Race For The Stars 2.30 Goodwood 1pt win @ 18-1 with ***** (16-1 B365, Bluebear, Boyles, James & Viktor) Tax Free 3.05 Goodwood 2pts win @ 8-1 with B365, Boyles & James (7-1 Billy, & Bluebear, 13-2 Joe , 6-1 Badblokes) One More Round 3.05 Goodwood 1pt win @ 16-1 generally

[pinhofap]

[Bish_Bash_Bosh]

Re: Lay the Tipsters I would have thought Templegate in the Sun would be well backed too. Might be worth keeping track on his tips too, that is if you can be arsed to get up early enough to make it worth your while?:zzz

[pinhofap]

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters This has nothing to do with the main system but the following horses were backed to be layed 2 mins before the off for a profit no matter what the outcome, and only then will I lay the horses in the normal way of the system. System rules on post #41. Good 14.30 Ouija Board 2.26 Good 15.40 Red Rock Canyon 1.74 Good 16.15 Argentine 2.8 Thirsk 14.15 Palo Verde 1.82 Thirsk 15.20 Granston 4.2 Windsor 14.50 Kibara 2.68

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Race For The Stars 2.30 Goodwood 1pt win @ 18-1 with ***** (16-1 B365, Bluebear, Boyles, James & Viktor

Already available to lay at 11.5.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Yesterday it was available to back at 16 on betfair. Very good strategy indeed.

[DC]

Re: Lay the most heavily tipped horses

Hello again, I have a backing system that I follow, really simple, backing Massey's top rated horses and today I ran into a selection at odds of 80 on betfair. I thought, nah, I'll waste my money here, it will never win. Well, the horse was Duke's View and it won at 50-1 SP, and I would have made a load of money. It is the first time that this system produces a 50-1 winner in 5 years, but what the hell, I won on Danny Cash system, on the tennis qualifiers and a few extra on the tipsters.

Hope you had Kilburn today mate 70-1 on Betfair :lol :ok

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Not really, the bloody system was making me losing money and I'm sticking to yours, in the long run I think it's smarter to stick with you, the system I was using has tight profit margins, and I noticed Massey doesn't take the 5% comm when he simulates Betfair Odds on his site. But I'm also bloody unlucky, so I didn't bet on it.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Kilburn didn't fall inside my system anyway, and I noticed that I may have made some mistake, because the ROI for backing SP>16, top 3 rated, in 3 stars or more races is 30%, so even taking out comm it is profitable. Too many simulations and you begin to make mistakes...

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Results for the trades were very good, I am not an experienced trader and stressed out on 1 horse, but it was profitable anyway. I used 50 euros Back bet and then a freeware program, I hope I can say it is Betangel Basic, and it has a green up function that equalizes profit through every horse in the race, it's much easier than entering the bets by hand, because they are changing fast in the last couple of minutes before the off. Results: Palo Verde: Backed 1.82, Layed 1.77 Profit +1.41 Ouija Board: Backed 2.26, Layed 2.35 Profit -1.91 (it actually went down to 2.24 just before the off) Kibara: Backed 2.68, Layed 2.21 Profit +18.40 Granston: Backed 4.2, Layed 3.14 Profit +16.24 Red Rock Canyon: Backed 1.74, Layed 1.61 Profit +3.85 Argentine: Backed 2.8, Layed 2.92 Profit -2.32 (it went down to 2.82 30 seconds after I closed position) Overall profit 35,67 euros after commission of risk free bets, very nice indeed, it really seems this is a good strategy for traders. Only two more races today that have only 1 tip, but one is a NR and the other is too high a price, so calling it a day. I'll post results in a while.

[pinhofap]

[pinhofap]

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Have you checkd to see how results go just for handicap races?

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Not really, but I can check it, I have the results, I'll just have to go through the racecards, thanks for the input, I'll do so in a while.

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters Results: Palo Verde: Backed 1.82, Layed 1.77 Profit +1.41 Ouija Board: Backed 2.26, Layed 2.35 Profit -1.91 (it actually went down to 2.24 just before the off) Kibara: Backed 2.68, Layed 2.21 Profit +18.40 Granston: Backed 4.2, Layed 3.14 Profit +16.24 Red Rock Canyon: Backed 1.74, Layed 1.61 Profit +3.85 Argentine: Backed 2.8, Layed 2.92 Profit -2.32 (it went down to 2.82 30 seconds after I closed position) I'm obviously missing a trick here, I don't get the figures to tally like that.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters I don't understand if you are not familiar with trading on Betfair, or if you don't understand where I got the prices. The prices were recorded at 1 PM, and I posted them so that there was no questions that they were real, and the Lays were placed 1 minute before the Off. By laying a price that is smaller than the one you backed you make a profit no matter what the outcome of the race is. There are several online calculators that tell you the Lay bet so that you have a profit every time, I use Betangel Basic because it's faster to place tge bet and it performs the calculation for you as well. Of course you don't make fortunes from this, but it's a steady income, if you can guess which horses will drop their price, and it seems tipsters are a very good indication of ones that will.

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters I take it those figures don't take betfair commissions into account?

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters The profit shown is after commission.

[pinhofap]

Re: Lay the Tipsters

Selecção Probabilidades Parada (EUR) Tipo de licitação Colocada Lucro/prejuízo (EUR) Kibara 2,68 50,00 Apostar a favor 05-Ago-06 12:25 -50,00 Kibara * 2,21 69,32 Apostar contra 69,32 *Média de probabilidades: On Off Sub-total de apostas a favor: -50,00 Sub-total de apostas contra: 69,32 Sub-total do mercado: 19,32 Comissão @ 4.76%: 0,92 Total Líquido do Mercado: 18,40

Os Ganhos e Perdas mostrados são valores líquidos depois de comissão. Todas as horas sãoUKT ? excepto indicação em contrário.

Sorry about it being in Portuguese, but I think you get the picture. Best wishes, search google for "trade betfair" and you should get some nice tutorials.

[traf]

Re: Lay the Tipsters No it's fine , I can get the gist of it despite it being in Portuguese. I just thought if you had backed 50 @ 2.68, the lay would have been 60.63 @ 2.21, guaranteeing a profit of 10.12 after commission whether it won or lost.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Lay the Tipsters When you trade out are you ding so to make the same profit whatever the result or are you building in a biase? i.e. 10pts profit if it wins, 5pts if it loses.