Sensible Horses

[sensibleboy]

Ok, going to post my racing bets up on here from now on. Fingers crossed for some profit at the end of each month. :dude

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Saturday 4th February MIGHTY MAN - 12.55 Sandown - 5pt Win Will improve hugely for step upto 3 miles and will be storming up the Sandown Hill at the finish with Johnson on board. No Refuge is a big danger but I like this fella alot and he should take all the beating. Has also won at Sandown before and course experience can be vital at a track like this. LADALKO - 3.45 Sandown - 9pt Win Would have won a very good handicap here last time if not crashing out 2 from home were Christian Williams made a mistake in booting him into the 2nd last. Geraghty is on board today and there is simply no reason why he shouldnt gain compensation as long as Barry lets the horse jump. Rather lose a length or so at each fence if your on a good thing than go for the reins and risk the chance of unshipping.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Two 2nds on Saturday. Oh well, moving on. 1 for Tuesday. BURUEACAT 1.50 Market Rasen - 7pt Win This horse would have won on his debut over hurdles but crashed out at the final flight when 6 lengths clear over a decent field. Looks for compensation today and faces nothing out of the ordinary so should take all the beating. My only worry would be if that fall first time out has left any mental scars on the horse. If not, it should win.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses 3 2nds so far. Great. Two for today... Winsley 3.15 Ludlow - 3pts EW Seems to run well fresh and on decent ground which he has today. Is still on a relatively nice handicap mark if you take into account his previous hurdling form. Forecast to be around 4/1 and can't see him being out the first 3. Beau De Turgeon 4.55 Ludlow - 2pts EW Ran terrible last time out but ran well before that on fast ground. Gets fast ground today and is highly thought of by Ian Williams as he is entered in a Grade 1 race at the festival. I think he will put his recent effort behind him and back on fast ground he looks a good each way bet at around 11/2.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Our Vic 1.25 Lingfield - 8pts Win Ive always thought Our Vic as being a true Grade 1 horse and i stick by my word. He was clearly not right last time when pulling up early on in the Robin Cook Memorial and the form of Pipes stable left something to be desired. However if we look at his win in the Paddy Power in November that showed what a true top class animal he is to come back and win a top race like that. This soft ground won't pose a problem for him this afternoon and expect him to take the world of beating against an average grade 1 field. L'Aventure 1.40 Haydock - 3pt EW This fella has the stamina of Paula Radcliffe and he will just keep plugging away till the night falls. He eventually won a big handicap last time out when winning the Welsh National and Im surprised he only has went up 9lbs for that win as that win should have given him important confidence ahead of this race. I can't see him being out the first three as not all of his opponents (if any) will stay this 3m4furlongs in heavy ground but this fella will adore those conditions which is why he is a great each way bet at around 9/1. Don't worry if he comes off the bridle early on as that is his style of racing and we are more likely to see him towards the end of the contest coming home like a train. Don't Be Shy 3.05 Lingfield - 10pts Win The nap of the day. Martin Pipe has always regarded this horse with the very best and he didnt show much over hurdles for the stable although they asked an awful lot of him putting him in 2 big handicaps for his debut runs in Britain which shows how highly he is regarded. He has been a different horse since he went chasing and eventually put his head in front last time out winning on the bridle as easy as he liked. This is a step up in class but these desperate conditions will be spot on for him and he should be able to make most of the weight he receives from Mister McGoldrick and Armaturk. He has plenty of speed aswell as stamina and will have improved further from his win last time which will make him very hard to beat.

[Aykay1]

Re: Sensible Horses Good luck Sensibleboy - i couldnt agree more with Our Vic and L'Aventure - im on both of them today :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Sensible Horses Good shout Our Vic:clap I was on My Will who loves the ground but just cant get in the front to challenge. Our Vic was always going to like the ground, it was just a question whether it was a YES day!

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Cheers Lads. Yep Our Vic was different class from those horses today and I was always confident. L'Aventure was just L'Aventure, tailed off turning for home but stayed on for 5th in the end. My nap is still to come however in Don't Be Shy. Expected to go to the very top over fences and this ground will suit.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses And Don't Be Shy wins aswell. Great Day for me as I had a hefty some on that and got 6/4 on betfair. :nana

[jeffers]

Re: Sensible Horses Had a shtload on Our Vic today too mate, people continue to underestimate this horse, why I don't know. He's gonna win the Gold Cup one day I'm sure of it...today was a very, very classy performance. :notworthy

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Jeffers, I couldnt agree more mate. He is hugely underestimated and I have always said he is a top grade 1 horse. His stamina would be in doubt with the gold cup but you never know as we all said Kicking King wouldnt stay. Ive had a few quid on him at 40/1 for this years gold cup. Have had it on for a few months now. At the time, I didnt think he would go for the race but what is a fiver come March and if he does line up and maybe go off at 16/1 or 14/1 then I would have been cursing myself not taking the 40/1. Thats the way I looked at it when I put the bet on, and now Im beginning to think it could have been a sensible move :lol

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Flash Cummins 3.00 Fontwell - 10pts Win at 2.66 Betfair Looks a plot job by Pipe and Johnson. Has been given a light campaign over hurdles so far just to get used to the job. Hasn't really been kicked about to win a race but has still run well on a few occasions. He makes his chasing debut this afternoon and with a handicap mark of 105 he should prove far too good for the in form team of Murphy / Pipe and Johnson. Being an ex Irish pointer the 3m2f trip will be no problem either will the ground and he should provide the Sunday cash. Ive taken the 2.66 with Betfair as I have a feeling he will be much much shorter come post time tomorrow. If he isn't I won't be too bothered but he more than likely will be.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Was available at 3.50 10 minutes ago on betfair so Ive stuck some more on at that price. Is back down to 2/1 now but way shorter with all other bookmakers.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses ORNELLA SPEED 2.50 Sedgefield - 3pts EW This horse has let me down a few times in the past over fences as it is known to be a very sketchy jumper. Was 2nd over hurdles last time out and the time before unseated over the bigger obstacles when travelling well at the time. If he is in a going mood today around 6 or 7/1 is a very good each way bet as he is rarely out the first 3 on soft conditions when he gets round. BASILEA STAR 3.30 Exeter - 6pts Win Is being talked about as a real classy horse at Pondhouse and won well on his chasing debut as the horse he beat that day has since won in a canter albeit a lesser race. This horse was a very good yardstick for Ferdy Murphy and is obviously now aiming for bigger things having switched the Martin Pipe. The conditions will pose no problems for him and I can see him coming with a late run to pip Halcon Genelardais. KEY PHIL 4.30 Exeter - 5pts EW (NAP) This horse just has to be the nap of the day. There is 8 runners in this contest and there is no way he can finish out the frame. He ran a good race when 2nd last time out to Rubberdubber and remains on the same handicap mark today. The drop back in trip will suit and he has won over todays conditions at Autueil. Warren Marston also gets on very well with the horse and if we look at his main rivals today they are nothing special at all. I think he will win but at the price we will go each way just for that extra back up.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses 2 places yesterday which returned a bit but nothing spectacular. Another 2 for today. BARON BLITZKRIEG 1.50 Southwell - 5pt Win 4.00 Betfair This horse won well just 7 days ago and is turned out quickly under a penalty. I dont think the 7lb penalty is enough to stop him from winning again and it doesnt look the strongest race in all honesty. KARELLO BAY 4.50 Southwell - 10pt Win 2.04 Betfair This horse ran very well first time out when just finding a more experienced horse too good for him. They both pulled clear of the remained that day and it was a fine introduction. Nicky Henderson has his team in fine fettle at the moment and he has found this horse an easy looking race that he should be able to win. The danger is the Alan King newcomer but our selection has that experience under his belt and is a confident selection to come home.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Karello Bay trotted up. Was my biggest bet for a long time. :nana

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses TESSANOORA 2.00 Huntingdon - 8pt Win 2.98 >Betfair Has run well on all its 4 starts so far and finished 4th last time out over 2 furlongs further than this 2 miles today. He weakened in the closing stages that day and the trop back to 2 miles should definetly suit. This is not a strong race and the only real challenger looks to be the Pipe horse but Tessanoora still has much the better form andit should be another winner for Henderson and Fitzgerald.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Another winner. 7 lengths on the bridle. :D :D

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses LACDOUDAL 3.20 Sandown - 2.5pts EW Is as tough as they come and the each way price of around 7/1 is screaming value for this horse here. He won round here on similar conditions not long ago and has been given a small break since his last run in preparation for this contest. Philip Hobbs has a great record in the race and even though it is at Sandown this year rather than Kempton this horse should still uphold Hobb's and Johnsons record in this contest. I expect a big run and really can't see him being out the first 4. L'Ami is a big danger but I really don't like his french conditional jockey one bit after seeing him riding in Britain a few times. WILD CANE RIDGE 4.05 Newcastle - 10pts Win Is a mudlark and absolutely adores heavy ground which he gets today. Trotted up last time out at Ayr and expect another similar performance here. The 3 miles trip is no problem for this horse and he will take a lot of beating. Olney Lad represents a big danger but Wild Cane Ridge looks to be more unexposed and has more potential than that horse. Len Lungo also has his stable in better form now and this horse should win barring a mishap.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Surdoe 3.00 Southwell - 10pts Lay at 3.50 Betfair Has won well on its last few starts but even for a banded race this is more competitive today and he is too short in a poor race where anything could win it. Lord Olympia 3.10 Fontwell - 10pts Lay at 1.60 Betfair Looks to have an easier task today because of Chabrimal Minster being a non runner however carrying top weight in heavy ground roud Fontwell is no easy task at all. Is far too short and I expect a shock in this race. Golden Spectrum 3.30 Southwell - 10pts Lay at 3.20 Betfair This is a decent enough little contest with plenty chances and this horse is a bit short considering he has thrown away his last couple of races. Is a must lay at just over 2/1. The Hairy Lemon 3.40 Fontwell - 10pts Lay at 3.60 Betfair Was on a nice winning streak then dissapointed last time out. Seems to enjoy a slog in the mud which he will get here but I still think he is worth taking on considering he has went up in the weights and this is a decent little race today. Pawn In Life 4.00 Southwell - 10pts Lay at 3.40 Betfair Won the other day ago in a decent enough race and deserves to be favourite for this. However he has got top weight and has been known to dissapoint in the past when expected to go well. A must lay. Gunship 4.40 Fontwell - 10pts Lay at 3.60 Betfair This is a competitive race and I dont see why this horse is so short. Was well beaten last time out, may not handle these conditions and looks a bit exposed. Ok, his opponents aren't anything special but a few will handle the conditions better than this one I reckon and at 3.60 he is a good lay. Blakeshall Quest 5.00 Southwell - 10pts Lay at 2.00 Betfair Really should win a contest like this but I do feel bookies have overreacted to his last win. EVS is a bit short in any banded race as anything can happen and Im willing to take him on as it won't be as easy as its made out to be. He has top weight and there is a few horses further down the handicap who could trouble him.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses 5 Lays Sunk. 2 winners at 2/1 and 8/15 so nice profit made today. :D

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Latif 1.55 Wolves - 10pt Lay 3.40 Betfair Has been running very well of late but in much lower grade than what he faces today. I think he will get a place but it will be no surprise should he find one too good for him once again. Liathroidisneactha 2.45 Plumpton - 10pts Lay 1.45 Betfair In all honesty this horse should win today however Im willing to take him on at such short odds simply because of the conditions. 2 miles on heavy ground may not be what this horse wants and in these novice hurdles anything can happen so at 1.45 he is a definite lay. Siwa 3.30 Wolves - 10pts Lay 2.60 Betfair This fella sets the standard in a contest like this and he has finished 2nd on his last 2 starts. He doesnt seem to find much at the tail end of his races and thats why im willing to take him on at such short odds. I also dont think the drop back to 6 furlongs will actually suit him and he also doesnt have the ideal draw should he be a little slow out the gates.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses Trying out a laying system. Plenty lays for today: Rose Muwasim 2.00 Lingfield - 2.98 Trans Sonic 2.00 Lingfield - 3.35 Give Me Love 2.20 Leicester - 4.00 Dianes Choice 2.30 Lingfield - 2.96 Yes My Lord 2.50 Leicester - 4.00 Rezzago 3.00 Lingfield - 2.82 Foxmeade Dancer 3.20 Leicester - 3.90 Predestine 3.50 Leicester - 2.60 Cool Isle 4.00 Lingfield - 4.00 Millenaire 4.20 Leicester - 4.00 Marachi Band 4.30 Lingfield - 3.20 Reasonably Sure 4.50 Leicester - 3.90 Tycheros 5.00 Lingfield - 2.32 Will other work wonders or make me look stupid. :lol

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	5.35 Ayr
Selection	Gunner Jack
Strength	10/10
Date	11/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Ive been waiting for this horse for a while and he finally comes out in what looks a decent enough little bumper. He is related to a Borders National winner so should have plenty of stamina to cope with the testing conditions at Ayr this afternoon. It is also significant that Tony Dobbin rides this one instead of the Lenny Lungo newcomer Neutron who looks the main danger. However Gunner Jack is much better bred and obviously held in some regard by Trevor Hemmings and Nicky Richards. I will be going in big on this one and hope he does the business at first time of asking.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.50 Ayr
Selection	Brandy Wine
Strength	6/10
Date	11/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 3.00 (Back)
Reasoning	This 3m5f trip will take some getting this afternoon with conditions very soft at Ayr. Brandy Wine has always been thought of a thorough stayer by Len Lungo who holds him in decent regard. The horse has won twice from 2 runs at Ayr but was dissapointing last time out at Carlisle when pulling up. Im convinced he is better going left handed and this marathon trip on soft ground will be to his liking. I expect Dobbin to kick on quite a bit from home here and he will take some catching.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.00 Cheltenham
Selection	Sweet Wake
Strength	10/10
Date	14/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	Is a talk horse at this stage but really could be anything. Carberry and Meade think this horse is special and it isn't 5/2 in a competitive race for nothing. Has done nothing wrong so far in his 2 wins against weak opposition and he could be very very classy indeed. The one they all have to beat and should get punters off to a flying start.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.35 Cheltenham
Selection	Accordion Etoile (Each-Way)
Strength	10/10
Date	14/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	This horse is all about speed and he simply cant be out the first three today. This is a very hot race and anything could win it but Accordion finished just 3L off Hardy Eustace in the Champion Hurdle last year and a few of todays main challengers look like they want a bit further whereas this fella is a specialist at the minimum trip. Banker each way for me.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	3.15 Cheltenham
Selection	Hardy Eustace (Each-Way)
Strength	10/10
Date	14/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	This for me is another banker each way bet. Hardy Eustace comes alive in the spring and at Cheltenham and I beleive he will become a legend and win a 3rd title. He wont get things his own way here but that is not a problem and if he is in front over the last nothing will pass him up the hill. Too much is being taken into his last run were he simply had an off day and Dessie Hughes wouldnt run his superstar in this if he wasn't right again. The first time visor will also help and he is the one to beat for me rather than Brave Inca.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4.00 Cheltenham
Selection	Irish Hussar (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	14/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	This horse is very classy on his day but has been injury prone and has had plenty of problems in his career. He is 10yrs old but has raced just 15 times and comes here well handicapped today even though he is off top weight. He was 3rd in this last year off a 6lb higher mark so I simply have to back him each way at a huge price today. The race has a few doubtful horses in it who simply are not good enough but on a going day this horse is good enough to win this and represents good value to sneak into the first 4.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensible Horses

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	4.00 Cheltenham
Selection	Moulin Riche
Strength	8/10
Date	14/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ SP (Back)
Reasoning	This horse should win this contest as he is very well handicapped over fences and won at the festival last year over the smaller obstacles. He ran well in defeat last time out on ground that was unsuitable. The better ground will suit today and off a nice weight with AP on board he is going to take some beating.