slapdash Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Just that one today. King Killone at 12/1 in the same race is an "almost", but with 16 runners, and only one non-runner needed to cut it to 15 runners, I'll leave it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Moustique de l'Isle placed, for a 12.5 point profit. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3802.85 Total Staked: 9440 W/P/L: 63/154/255 Profit/Loss: +2802.85 (Win +794.99, Place +2007.86) Yield: +29.69% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 29, 2006 Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hello, Another good day at the office I see. What made you choose this horse in particular over and above the others in the 2:30 @ Carlisle which you put in your EW doubles thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hello, Another good day at the office I see. Thanks, plopplop. What made you choose this horse in particular over and above the others in the 2:30 @ Carlisle which you put in your EW doubles thread? What I'm trying to do here is to find EW bets with a lot of value in the place part of the bet, without getting too much bad value in the win part of the bet. I'd be happy to roughly break even on the win parts: in fact, I've made a slight profit on them this year, and made a slight loss last year. But the place bets are where I aim to make the profit. But if I put them in EW doubles, then I can afford to be more forgiving about the value of the win part, and the ones I put in the EW doubles thread but not here are ones where I still think there's a lot of value in the place bet, but for one reason or another I'm afraid the win part of the bet might lose too much. Here's the idea. Suppose I found EW bets where the win part of the bets returned 50% of the stake on average (a 50% loss), but the place part returned 150% of the stake on average (a 50% profit). Then if I bet them in EW singles, I'd break even in the long run, losing as much on the win bets as I won on the place bets. But if I put two of them in an EW double, then on average the win double would return 25% of the stake (a 75% loss), but the place double would return 225% of the stake (a 125% profit). So a 1 point EW double would make a profit of 0.5 points on average. [The numbers here are not meant to be realistic, but just to illustrate the principle.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 29, 2006 Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Okay, I see. I followed both this and your EW doubles today and am very happy. Here's to future success.:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 29, 2006 Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Been following your bets for maybe about two months now. Looking at your graph on Sports-punter this system is going through it's worst spell' date=' am I right? Hoping for a great day anyday now :) [/quote'] Just because I started following it :lol Sorry, but it's my fault :dude Anyway ... I'm sure some winners will soon pop-up :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 30, 2006 Author Share Posted October 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.30 Wolverhampton Not Another Cat (10/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 3.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.72 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also slightly lower, at 10.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 30, 2006 Author Share Posted October 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Just that one today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 30, 2006 Author Share Posted October 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Not Another Cat placed, for a 10 point profit. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3812.85 Total Staked: 9460 W/P/L: 63/155/255 Profit/Loss: +2812.85 (Win +784.99, Place +2027.86) Yield: +29.73% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 31, 2006 Author Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Nothing today. There are a few "almosts" I'll post in the EW Double thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 31, 2006 Author Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Sorry for changing my mind, but the Betfair prices on this have dropped, and I'm going to upgrade it from "almost". 4.20 Wolverhampton Callisto Moon (8/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 2.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.26 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also 8/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Selection from ralphie in his A.W. system so it's time for a nice winner :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 31, 2006 Author Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Placed, for a 6 point profit. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3818.85 Total Staked: 9480 W/P/L: 63/156/255 Profit/Loss: +2818.85 (Win +774.99, Place +2043.86) Yield: +29.73% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The way starting prices are calculated changes today: http://punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=37501 Time will tell what difference this will make, but for the time being I'm going to be very cautious about taking SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.00 Chepstow The Sawyer (7/1 VCBet) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 2.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.84 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also 7/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 12.40 Huntingdon First Feerie (10/1 Paddy Power) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 3.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.7 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also a bit lower, at 9.6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's all today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 2, 2006 Author Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Been busy this morning, sorry. But I've just had a quick look, and there doesn't seem to be anything today, anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB1979 Posted November 2, 2006 Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 one to keep an eye on Southwell 3.40 Lottie 12/1 SeanGraham Were getting @3.40 for the place vs @2.60- @3.00 lay at betfair Win odds at betfair also lower @[email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB1979 Posted November 2, 2006 Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted November 2, 2006 Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 one to keep an eye on Southwell 3.40 Lottie 12/1 SeanGraham Were getting @3.40 for the place vs @2.60- @3.00 lay at betfair Win odds at betfair also lower @[email protected] Maximum stake 10 pounds :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB1979 Posted November 2, 2006 Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 can phone it through with SeanGrahm with telephone account...allow much as like on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 3, 2006 Author Share Posted November 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Can't find anything today, either. Seem to be going through a very slow period lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 12.40 Kelso Witch Wind (12/1 Bet365) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite and a short-priced second favourite. We're getting 3.4 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.52. The Betfair win price is higher, at 14.5, but the difference in place odds is enough to compensate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.25 Wincanton Lincoln's Inn (7/1 Paddy Power) 10 points EW. Each way system. There are short priced first and second favourites. We're getting 2.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.98 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is a little higher, at 8.80, but the difference in place prices is just about enough to compensate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I think that's all. Might be worth seeing what prices are available on the 2nd/3rd/4th favourites in the 1.05 Wincanton later on, though. There seems to be a lot of value in the place odds even at the early prices available now, but the Betfair win odds are a bit too high in comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 What about 4.10 Windsor Pinpoint? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 What about 4.10 Windsor Pinpoint? There isn't any difference between lay price @ Betfair and what we get for the place, mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I think that's all. Might be worth seeing what prices are available on the 2nd/3rd/4th favourites in the 1.05 Wincanton later on' date=' though. There seems to be a lot of value in the place odds even at the early prices available now, but the Betfair win odds are a bit too high in comparison.[/quote'] I'm taking them all ... prices are very high at the mom :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hope you did that too :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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