jtw1 Posted August 26, 2007 Author Share Posted August 26, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Hi JTW, congratulations again for a great pick. Thanks for responding to my post. I hope you didn't feel offended. I was just trying to make sure I understand how to apply your criteria correctly. I think the only difference is that I placed the H2H matches in a different order - just copied them blindly off the betexplorer site I'm afraid. I did the same with the matches played so far this season. Am I correct that when there are sufficient home/away matches (i.e. at least 4 of each, but better 6) you just look at the home record for the home team and the away record for the away team? With the additional proviso that you give the home teams home record more weight? Sorry to be so pedantic but I want to get it right. Looking forward to more... and more... Absolutely no offence taken whatsoever my friend , only too happy to reply to people who take time out to give feedback + queries on the system :ok And yes , your quite right it's always the UNDERS record of the home teams and aways that i look at for. Note- Dont expect another selection until Friday at the earliest , as its only the French leagues that i am considering right now :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 29, 2007 Share Posted August 29, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results As most of you will know the side which became a firm favourite of ours last season was XANTHI SKODA . Tomorrow see's the GREEKS kick-off their leagues and XANTHI are at home to PAOK and this fixture has produced 13 unders from the previous 14 h/a games XANTHI scored only 13 goals and conceded only 6 in 15 home games last season. PAOK netted only 10 in 15 aways. 1.6 with SPORTING ODDS seems VERY reasonable imo Unfortunatly it's a no bet as far as the systems concerned but i'll be having an interest Am I right that this match hasn't happened and Interwetten are offering 1.60 also on the under 2.5 market? How many goals 01.09.0718:00Aris Saloniki - Panionios 1,70 0-2 1,90 3 or more 18:00Xanthi - PAOK Saloniki1,60 0-2 2,00 3 or more but hang on: Greece - Super LeagueStandingsCVeria FC- AEK Athens 18:00Larisa- Veria FC 18:00Xanthi- Asteras Tripolis CAris Salonica- Panionios 20:15PAOK Saloniki- Iraklis CXanthi- PAOK Saloniki http://football-data.enetpulse.com/?date=2007-09-01 Anyone explain this one? Has the Xanthi - PAOK game been cancelled? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Greece - Super LeagueStandingsCVeria FC- AEK Athens 18:00Larisa- Veria FC 18:00Xanthi- Asteras Tripolis CAris Salonica- Panionios 20:15PAOK Saloniki- Iraklis CXanthi- PAOK Saloniki Anyone explain this one? Has the Xanthi - PAOK game been cancelled? Looks like match has been postponed, to be played at a later date: GREDA2007-08-26 02:15XanthiVSPAOK SalonikiDeferred I just checked and it's been rescheduled for Saturday, September 1st. That's why results site report it as Cancelled but bookies still offer odss for it. ;) F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results ALL GREEK league games were postponed last week-end as mark of respect to those who died in forest fires . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted August 30, 2007 Author Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results A qiuck look at the games for this weekend and it looks like the NICE v LENS match on SUNDAY that will get the vote for the 3rd bet . Post stats later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted August 30, 2007 Share Posted August 30, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results ALL GREEK league games were postponed last week-end as mark of respect to those who died in forest fires . Ah yes - I remember hearing that. Poor sods.:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 1, 2007 Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results You have to love Xanthi!!!!!!! (1-0) Thanks jtw1. Awaiting your stats for the French game..........with much anticipation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 1, 2007 Author Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Wish i'd had the balls to just go for them in the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 1, 2007 Author Share Posted September 1, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results After missing the 6 UNDERS midweek in FRENCH div 1 and leaving out the mighty XANTHI ,i have can see this coming to a sticky end but here goes - NICE v LENS - 4 out of 7 previous fixtures have ended UNDER [not great but it will have to do] NICE - 3 out of 3 homes have ended UNDER [ 5/6 H/A this season = UNDER LENS - 1 away from 2 has been UNDER [ 3/4 H/A = UNDER ] STAKE 48.24PTS @ 1.57 on UNDER 2.5 STAKE 2PTS on 2-1 home win @ 10.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vedenn Posted September 2, 2007 Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results I am new to this so correct me if i'm wrong.... Ill put in my 5% on NICE v LENS. I dont think it looks so bad. last 10 league games for both of them are 7/3 for U/O And the last 10 h2h are 7/3 U/O as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jj107 Posted September 2, 2007 Share Posted September 2, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results 1-0. The master strikes again. Well done boss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuwest Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Great result! Thanks JTW1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Yes... great stuff, JTW1. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Well done JTW. I didn't follow you with real money last year because when i first read your thread you were on such a good winning streak i thought it must end soon........and it didn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Just wanted to add my thanks to this thread too. Only spotted it towards the end of last season so didn't take any of the tips but made a note to follow it once things got rolling again. Thanks for sharing this with us jtw1! Hope it continues... and now that I've said it everything will go :moon shaped!! :lol Good luck! Will be following this for the rest of the season! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 3, 2007 Author Share Posted September 3, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results 1-0 :loon Cheers guys RETURNS = 75.70PTS STARTING BANK = 100 PTS CURRENT BANK = 155.70PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results hi jtw and all! i have just rediscovered this thread. what a ledge! (i think i posted a bit back in 2006) i looked through the results that you have jtw, and have tried to come up with some stats for use. they may be slightly out, due to me missing some or interpreting them incorrectly. i have ignored the savers as my spreadsheet would have been too complicated. i have just included matches UNDER on here since post 1 - i am aware that you have posted on another forum in th epast. i have also included a yield if you had staked equal units per game. hope it helps by giving a flavour. wins 87 losses 34 bets 121 strike 71.9% staked 3396.95 returned 3934.73 profit 537.78 av odds 1.525 Chi sq 85.6% yield 15.8% lev st yield 19.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryTheobald Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Hi All New contibutor. Muppet from a staking plan point of view - longest run of wins and losses would be great if you have them easily to hand Thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results longest winning streak = 13 longest losing streak = 4 average winning streak = 2.72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trollerboy Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results would be interesting to see what results are after 1000 bets. and a performance graph would also be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted September 4, 2007 Share Posted September 4, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Any chance of putting the spreadsheet up here muppet. I'd be interested in taking a look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 4, 2007 Author Share Posted September 4, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results That must've taken a fair bit of time + effort MUPPET , a large :clap is thoroughly deserved. If you have no objections could i post it on the other forum i have the thread on ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results no worries jtw, of course! i will try to post the spreadsheet and perhaps then any mistakes can be corrected. i did not record team names! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results wins 87 losses 34 bets 121 strike 71.9% staked 3396.95 returned 3934.73 profit 537.78 av odds 1.525 exp wins 79.4 exp losses 41.6 start bank 100.00 bank now 637.78 YIELD 15.8% lev st yield 19.1% Chi sq 85.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Hi, can you jtw1 explain the staking plan? Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Small correction: At the above table the correct average winning odds is 1.657 so the yield at level stakes is correctly 19.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results what do you mean mate? in the table i just recorded stake and then return from each post, so excel calculated the odds from this. where there was no return (loss) there is a gap for the odds, so i worked the average on what i had. the odds column is the odds in % form as i tried to find the average this way, as if they were in decimal odds form it could not be done. (for example the average of the decimal odds 2.00 and 98.0, is 3.92 and not 50.00) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Sorry mappet, i didn't got it right the odds column. The staking question is for jtw1, how does he calculates the stakes using this progressive staking plan, after one win stake?, after two wins stake? (his is banking some amount after some winning bets). Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 5, 2007 Author Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Hi DICES , heres the staking plan - BET 1- 20PT WIN If that comes in then ALL RETURNS on BET 2 . If that is sucessful then a small portion of the returns [ usually around 2 - 2.5 pts] is placed on a home score of 2-1 with the rest going onto BET 3 . If the main bet comes in then we BANK the winnings and return to 20pt win If 'insurance' bet of 2-1 comes in then we're back to placing returns from that on BET 1 . If both fail then we've lost 20pts from starting bank and start at BET 1 [20PTS] again. Hope that explains things :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted September 5, 2007 Share Posted September 5, 2007 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Great work Muppet77.:clap One thing I don't understand on the table. What does the "run lev prof" column show? It looks to me like your 1st "'level profit" column show the accumulated/run profit. But how interesting that the level stake yield works out the most profitable. If you stake just £23.33 on each selection you'd match the same profit as the staking plan but only having to risk £2823 compared with £3397. Cheers Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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