spreadman Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 This is the thread that has made consistent profit for all of the five strategies that are being tested and traded, at the moment, and in less than 1 month has generated £5,285 profit since the first trade on 15th October, (see first post below). Any questions or advice, please feel free to post on this thread. Just click on the 'reply' tab, above. The STGMSS Match No. 1, Wigan v Newcastle, Sky Sports Prem +, 12.45 p.m. k.o., Saturday, 15th October. Our first trade, and welcome to this new thread, sorry for late posting. The trade is: Strategies 1, 2, and 4 - Sell total goal minutes at 120, 1 point per minute. Strategy 3 - As above, but stake is 2 points per minute. There are 5 matches to be traded over this weekend and Monday night. Next trade posted here before 5 p.m., today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Results of STGMSS Match No.1, Wigan v Newcastle, 1-0. An excellent start to the system, all strategies showing a profit, and Martingale Strategy No.3 off to a good start...how long will that last?!! Total goals minutes MU = 40. Profit = + 70 points. STRATEGY 1 - +£70. STRATEGY 2 - +£70 STRATEGY 3 - +£140 STRATEGY 4 - +£70 CARD COUNT = +1, so no trades on the next match for strategies 1, 2, or 3 Next trade posted on this thread. For a detailed explanation of the strategies, please visit the other STGMSS thread in this forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! The STGMSS Match No.2, Middlesbro' v Portsmouth, k.o 5.25, Saturday, 15th october. Just one trade, Strategy 4, the control strategy : sell total goal minutes at 122 for £2 per minute (point). :ok :hope Results on this thread later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! The STGMSS Match No. 2 result, Middlesbro v Portsmouth, 1-1 RESULT : Total goals minutes MU = 100. Profit = + 22 points. Only one strategy was traded - Strategy 4, (control) - + 22 points at £2 per point = +£44 profit. STRATEGY 1 and 2 BANKS = +£70, EACH. STRATEGY 3 BANK = +£140. STRATEGY 4 BANK = +£114. Next match to be traded is tomorrow, Reading v Ipswich, Sky Sports TV, 1.30 p.m., Sunday, 16th October.Trade and spread details posted here, tomorrow. morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 16, 2005 Author Share Posted October 16, 2005 Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today. The STGMSS Match No. 3, Reading v Ipswich, Sky Sports, 1.30 p.m. k.o., Sunday, October 16th. Only one strategy on this match as the CV, (Cardcounting Value), is still +1, and until the CV has a value of -1 or more, trading is restricted to our 'control' strategy. One more point...I have decided to run a strategy 5 alongside the existing other four, this will be a similar plan to the strategy 3 Martingale staking plan that covers Strategy 1 selected trades, only it will cover all of the strategy 4 trades, namely, every televised match, regardless of form, goals expectancy etc. So, to recap, Strategy 5 uses a martingale staking plan, trades on every match, and will be used as a comparitive strategy to System 4, the control strategy that uses a level staking plan. In other words, the only difference between Strategies 4 and 5 is that the first uses level stakes, the second, a martingale staking plan....and should reach a zero bank first!! Full details of each strategy, the cardcounting value system, table and points ratings, and just what this is actually about, can be found on the thread in this forum, entitled 'New System Starts Today'. Click the 'search' tab above, and enter the thread title in the box...that should redirect you to the appropriate thread. And, now, at last, the trade for today, to be used for strategies 4 and 5, the new strategy. Sell total goal minutes at 129, for £2 per minute. Results posted here after the match, with the next set of trades. :ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 16, 2005 Author Share Posted October 16, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Result of the STGMSS Match No. 3, Reading v Ipswich, 2-0. It's three wins from three, so far, with several lucky escapes. Only two strategies were traded, Strategies 4 and 5. Total goal minutes MU = 65. Profit = + 64 points. STRATEGY 4 - +64 points x £2 = +£128 profit. STRATEGY 5 - +64 points x £2 = +£128 profit. Bank updates for all strategies posted after Monday night's traded match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 16, 2005 Author Share Posted October 16, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! The STGMSS Match No. 4, Man. City v West Ham, Sky Sports, 4 p.m. k.o., Sunday, 16th October. Just two strategies traded, again, Strategies 4 and 5. Sell total goal minutes at 120, for £2 per minute. Results posted here, after the match. :ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 16, 2005 Author Share Posted October 16, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Result for STGMSS Match No. 4, Man. City v West Ham, 2-1. Our first loss....but still in profit for the week end. Strategies 4 and 5 : Total Goal Minutes MU = 164. Loss = - 44 points x £2 = -£88. :( Due to the losing trades, the stake will increase for tomorrow's match. Spreads for the match posted here, after 6 p.m.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! The STGMSS Match No.5, Charlton v Fulham, Sky Sports, 8 p.m., Monday, 17th October. The card counting value is at 0, so only strategies 4 and 5 to be used in tonight's trades. The other strategies, (1, 2 and 3), will recommence when the CCV is -1 or greater. (See the full details in my 'New System Starts Today' thread). The stake level is increased after yesterday's losing trade. Strategy 4, (control, every match), - Sell total goal minutes at 127, £3 per minute, (point). Strategy 5, (suicide Martingale, every match), - Sell total goal minutes at 127, £4 per minute, (point). Fingers crossed for no more late goals. Updates of all strategy banks on this thread in the next day or so. GL. :ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted October 17, 2005 Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Just stumbled across this today, anyone know what the fcuk Spreadman is on about? :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! :D :rollin :D :lol :\ I dunno, but his two strategies just made £156 and £208....... :$ :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 17, 2005 Author Share Posted October 17, 2005 preadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today Result for STGMSS Match No.4, Charlton v Fulham, 1-1. How are your nerves..if you dared to trade on this match? Think you can cut it as a spread bettor? .... I certainly can't!!! Although I am now several pounds lighter, and developing some interesting ulcers, I am still well enough to report our trading figures for tonight's match. Here are the 'big' numbers : Total goal minutes MU = 75. STRATEGY 4 - +52 points x £3 = +£156 profit. STRATEGY 4 - +52 Points x £4 = +£208 profit. Not bad for 90 minutes 'work'. :) Full update of all strategies, banks P/L etc., posted on this thread in the next day or so. Any questions, fire away, I'll try my best to avoid, I mean, answer, them... :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted October 18, 2005 Share Posted October 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Spreadman, I had a trade on TGM in a game the other week. Talk about making yourself sweat! One thing I think could help you benefit is the ability to trade out at half time in these games. I'm not sure what prices the companies will put up, but if there are a couple of goals in the first half, providing they don't come late in the half, it should still be possible to trade out at not to bad a loss at half time, whilst trading out to a nice profit at half time if the games still 0-0. Anyway enough of my waffle, good luck with this system. Think I'm gonna play the sell of TGM at 110 in the Bayern v Juventus game tonight. May the sweating and pants changing commence! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 18, 2005 Author Share Posted October 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! :lol Chala, I already close out at H/T in my strategy 'B' trades, in the Double sell system, ( click the link below for more info on it). The system sells Total goals and shirts, and several times closing the trade at H/T has proved correct. However, employing this strategy for my Total goal minutes sytem rarely works..unless it is 0-0 at H/T, and even then the profit is only 10 - 15 points. Much better, is to close around the 75th minute, if still goaless, as the goal rate goes up in the last 10 mins. You lose out by paying the spread difference, (10 points), but an 85th minute goal is costly. A few times I have been caught out by a 93rd minute goal, that cost me 90 points profit, and turned the trade into a losing one....:\ GL if you trade tonight, I have a very small TG's sell in the M.U. match, which I will close around the 30th minute mark, for a small profit...if no early goals!! Van Nist. might be a scorer to back...though match already started... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 18, 2005 Author Share Posted October 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Chala....don't you just love spread betting??? :spank I bet that you are glad you didn't actually trade in TGM's for the Bayern match.....a TG's lost trade to a last minute goal is bad enough, but a 90 point profit cut ...that's something else !! :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Chala....don't you just love spread betting??? :spank I bet that you are glad you didn't actually trade in TGM's for the Bayern match.....a TG's lost trade to a last minute goal is bad enough, but a 90 point profit cut ...that's something else !! :wall Spreadman I did have a sell total goals minutes at 105!:wall Ibrahimovic :spank , what a bastard turned a £17 profit into a £28 loss with virtually the last kick of the game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! :@ Commisserations Chala ........ Wish I had made my 'close your trade around the 75th minute' post a bit earlier...maybe you would have closed sooner? Man. U. match was 0-0, so closing before 30th min, as suggested in same post, in a way 'cost' me a potential 15 to 18 points....not as costly as Ibra's kick for you though...... The 'close your TGM's trade at 85-89 mins.' ploy certainly is worth considering. GL for future trades, I'm sure you will get it back...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Advice please spreadman if your online. New to spread betting but kind of like it. Had sold MAN UTD shirts yesterday and let it run for whole game as I was out. Have sold Liverpool Shirts tonight for £1 a point. I can currently take profit at £9. Max potential profit is £17. When should I look at taking profit or should I let it run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! If I take profit it is now £11. Will let it run to 15 then might take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! I'm not watching the match, but flicked over a few times....watch out, because last 5-10 mins, there are higher proportion of goals scored....if it's your first time...close the trade, as your nerves may need a rest! ...HOW ARE THE ULCERS ?!!!! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Closed at £12 profit. Not my first time turned initial investment of £50 into £228 now. More by luck than judgement I would imagine. MAN UTD helped last night. I will only play at £1 a point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! :clap :ok Wise move, Staffy, and good idea to limit your stake per point. As they say, a bird (profit), in the hand, is worth two in the bush, (spread firms vaults!).... The sinking feeling you would get if a last minute goal is scored is indescribable...especially if you are trading in toal goal minutes...90 points (£'s) off of your profit!! Good return on your £50, though, eh?!! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Yeah not a bad start mate just hope it keeps going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark H Posted October 20, 2005 Share Posted October 20, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! A little research on Premiership games this season indicates that the most likely times for a goal to occur are 5 mins either side of half time 15% or in the last 20 mins 28% (last 10 mins 15%) The split of goals between 1st half and 2nd half is 58%-42% which isn't surprising. Teams which so far, score above average 2nd half goals are :- Arsenal 73% Chelsea 74% Everton 100% (large sample of 1 goal) Newcastle 80% Tottenham 82% West Ham 83% I would be more inclined to close out a sell of TGMs if one of these teams were involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 20, 2005 Author Share Posted October 20, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Hi, again, Mark. Interesting stats. I may introduce another strategy, (!!), during the season which nominates a list of the teams that I will not trade as TGM's sells, or will trade out before the 80th minute, to see if such a ploy is advantageous. Last season I omitted certain teams from my TGM's trades when playing at home, Arsenal, Man. Utd, etc, and away, Norwich, Southampton etc. This saved a few hundred points over the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 20, 2005 Author Share Posted October 20, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Update of strategy banks for the Spreadman's TGMSS. All banks start with 1,000 points, (£1000), for explanation of strategy differences, look at post No.1 in the thread in this forum entitled 'New system starts today'. Played/Won/Lost followed by P/L :- STRATEGY 1 = 1/1/0 +£70 ;) STRATEGY 2 = 1/1/0 +£70 ;) STRATEGY 3 = 1/1/0 +£140 :) STRATEGY 4 = 5/4/1 +£430 :D STRATEGY 5 = 3/2/1 +£248 :) As you can see, so far, all strategies have shown a profit, though it is early days yet, and if a few trade losses occur, the Martingale strategy systems, ( 3 and 5 ), will soon deplete. Not enough data yet to formulate an opinion as to which strategy will be most successful. Next traded match, tomorrow evening, spreads and trades posted here, after 6p.m.. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 21, 2005 Author Share Posted October 21, 2005 Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! The STGMSS Match, No.6, Leeds v Sheff. Utd., Sky Sports, 7.45 p.m., Friday, October 21st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 21, 2005 Author Share Posted October 21, 2005 Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! The STGMSS Match, No.6, Leeds v Sheff. Utd., Sky Sports, 7.45 p.m., Friday, October 21st. This could be the match that breaks the bank!!! Hopefully, the expected 3+ goals will be scored early in the match...otherwise we could be facing a 250+ make up...:\ The 'Cardcounting' current value is 0, so only two strategies used tonight. Strategy 4 - Sell TGM's at 125 for £2 per minute, (Cantor). Strategy 5 - Sell TGM'S at 125 for £2 per minute. Results posted later, not trading in this match, personally. GL. :ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 21, 2005 Author Share Posted October 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Leeds v Sheff. Utd, Second half started, still 0-0....a thought occured to me...20 televised matches since a 0-0 result....now I've said that, watch the goals roll in....:\ ..oops, Leeds scored!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted October 21, 2005 Author Share Posted October 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Total Goal Minutes Sell System trades for today - first post! Result of the STGMSS Match No. 6, Leeds v Sheff. Utd., 1-1. Happy to report an unexpected profit, all be it a small one. TGM's make up = 122 minutes. Strategy 4 = +£6 profit, new bank = +£436 Strategy 5 = +£6 profit, new bank = +£254. Next trade, tomorrow, spreads etc. posted here in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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