abbeytotal Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 What wins it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch I give up what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 11, 2005 Share Posted October 11, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch First past the post I'd hope. Seriously though, I'll have an interest in 3 come saturday - it might not be the 3 I selected ante-post either. Until Saturday though, I'm gonna stay away. Lost an absolute packet on yesterday's stupid results. If I didn't have the favourite - it won, if I did have the favourite then bloody 16/1 & 20/1 shots came in. Quit when all of last weeks profits went. Got a horrible feeling that today would be more of the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abbeytotal Posted October 12, 2005 Author Share Posted October 12, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch I'll give my selection on Friday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brother love Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Afrad !!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 12, 2005 Share Posted October 12, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch I'll give my selection on Friday night. abbey, dont be frightened now, come on what is it? Are you afraid the price will drop? or WHAT?:drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abbeytotal Posted October 14, 2005 Author Share Posted October 14, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Lets Roll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Hi everyone, I have been a long standing viewer of this great site and have decided to get involved in giving my knowledge and analysis in hopefully picking out some real value bets. The Cesarewitch is the last great Long Distance Handicap of the Flat Season and is a real chance for us to get some really good value if we are prepared to delve deep into the field. In the last 6 runnings of this race no horse has won coming from a stall lower than 17 and horses ridden more prominently to the pace always invariably win, as past results show it is very, very hard to come from behind. The ground yesterday was reported as Soft after 7mm of rain overnight and the weather forecast is for it to be overcast but dry today and sunny spells and dry tomorrow, so with this in mind the ground should be riding on the soft side of good. Taking into consideration the above facts I have found 3 horses with realistic each-way chances: 3(31)3701Swift Sailor (ex5) 30 M Johnston 49-4Greg Fairley(5) Mark Johnston is one of the shrewdest trainers around and he would normally have a few runners in a race like this, however it is a tip intself that this is his only horse and that he must consider this to have a real live chance. Johnston won this race in 1998 with Spirit of Love and he also had the 2nd in Etterby Park that year. Last year he also won this race with Contact Dancer, so he is no mug when it comes to this race! Swift Sailor showed his credentials for this race last time out when he won at Pontefract on the same forecast going and trip as tomorrows race and beat another one of my each-way squeaks Ten Carat fairly comprehensively getting 7lbs and handing out a 10 3/4 lengths defeat to Ten Carat. Swift Sailor looks to have come to hand at just the right moment and drawn stall 31 with a liking for the ground and trip, a big run is on the cards! 18/1 each-way 7/10 bet. 8(33)-423Ten Carat 30 Mrs A J Perrett 58-10v1R Hughes Ten Carat has been a frustrating horse this season as he has failed to get his head in front and was beaten by Swift Sailor as mentioned comprehensively, however there can be reasons behind that defeat as he was giving 7lbs and the ground was possibly softer than ideal for him, and it was a small field that day. He is now 15 lbs better off with Swift Sailor for that defeat and the going won't be as soft and he will also wear a visor for the first time to help him concentrate and get his head down. The time before last he was just worried out of it by tomorrows forecast favourite Afrad, in the last 100 yds to be beaten 1 1/4 lengths over 2m 5f at Goodwood on Soft going, giving Afrad 2lbs. Tomorrows race he will be 3lbs better off, drawn stall 33 and going and trip will not be a problem and the visor will aide his cause to knuckle down to the job in hand. A good run for this horse is on the cards! 28/1 each-way 5/10 bet. 28(25)5-18Calamintha 154 M C Pipe 57-12Lisa Jones Martin Pipe has an unbelievable! record, with bottom of the weight handicappers in this race over the last 5 years: 2000 winner 1stHeros Fatal (FR)(18)M C Pipe6 8-1 1G Carter11/1 2001 5thhdGuard Duty (12)M C Pipe4 7-5 tD Kinsella(5)7/1 2002 winner 1Miss Fara (FR)(36)M C Pipe7 8-0 R L Moore(5)12/1 He fields 3 runners tomorrow (Fortune Island, Penny Pictures & Calamintha) and by statistics Fortune Island cannot win because of draw 16, Penny Pictures is in shocking form and this leaves Calamintha who has shown it's disdain for hurdling and has shown a liking for extreme distances and softish going on the flat, as shown the time before last at Nottingham over 1m 6f good to soft being eased down considerably on the approach to the line winning under 9st 8lbs! last time out the ground was too fast hence his poor showing and tomorrow he has a featherweight of 7st 12lbs and loves to bowl along at the head of affairs and is drawn 25. My guess is this will be Pipes fancy for this race, however do not let the forecast price put you off!!! Good each-way squeak 50/1 each-way 3/10 bet. All the above prices are from Paddypower.com who are also offering 1/4 odds for the first 5 placed. The idea behind delving deep is to get the best possible price as the inevitable Bookie trimming of prices on the morning of the race. Good Luck Everyone! :hope Jonesy Knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch to PL, Jonesy Knows. Great first post too - keep them coming mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Interesting the O'brien runner HIPPODROME, only 3 runs to its name with the furthest over 10f, tomorrow it takes on an extra MILE in this race. Tabor's horse ridden by Ahern as Fallon is riding Afrad for Henderson. The price is only 20/1 at Sp odds but 33.0 on Betfair. Something weird about this one. At a massive price & 8th in this event 2 yrs ago is Establishment. Hayley turner has ridden the horse on last 2 rides & ran reasonably well. Has won at Newmarket which is a plus & a ridiculous low weight tomorrow would give this one a squeak in my eyes. At 150/1 at hills, I will be on Each way:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Sergeant Cecil for me. Backed it for the Ebor, Northumberland Plate and won......with a superb second in the Doncaster Cup behind Millenary. I can't not back it for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmcandrew Posted October 14, 2005 Share Posted October 14, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch I like the look of Cordial. Came back recently after a lengthy absence and really put in a decent display over 1m 6f, finishing only 4 lengths behind the talented Indian Pipe Dream. I got the impression Cordial would be more suited to a longer distance and at 50/1, I shall certainly be putting a pound or 2 each way on. Along with my other choice - Baddam, I feel it could be a classic race and I look forward to it greatly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Joe Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Interesting the O'brien runner HIPPODROME, only 3 runs to its name with the furthest over 10f, tomorrow it takes on an extra MILE in this race. Tabor's horse ridden by Ahern as Fallon is riding Afrad for Henderson. The price is only 20/1 at Sp odds but 33.0 on Betfair. Something weird about this one. Yes Bowles10, 20/1 looks a massive price for an Aidan O Brien runner in a handicap, if he stays, surely he'll run a HUGE race! I might have a litle bet on this one in the hope that he will stay :loon !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark o leary Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Lets Roll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Hi Master Joe & Bowles10, I looked at O'Briens' horse as well and to be honest there are too many if's, but's & maybe's about this horse: If it had a serious chance wouldn't Fallon ride it? and it is very inexperienced for a race like this after only having run 3 times and it is up a further mile!!! surely Ten carat has a much better chance at better odds: no problem with ground and trip and has a better jockey on board in Richard Hughes and is wearing a first time visor and is much better off in the weights against the favourite Fallons' ride Afrad from their last running! 28/1 against 20/1 ? I think the O'Brien factor here is giving false odds to this horse... Sorry guys it's just my opinion! Good Luck anyhows Yes Bowles10' date=' 20/1 looks a massive price for an Aidan O Brien runner in a handicap, if he stays, surely he'll run a HUGE race! I might have a litle bet on this one in the hope that he will stay :loon !!!![/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch I like the look of Cordial. Came back recently after a lengthy absence and really put in a decent display over 1m 6f, finishing only 4 lengths behind the talented Indian Pipe Dream. I got the impression Cordial would be more suited to a longer distance and at 50/1, I shall certainly be putting a pound or 2 each way on. I agree also with Cordial so much so Ive put him in my round robin for today. e/w is 5 places:loon and he had a good run at Haydock and definatley worth 50's (40/1 @ corals) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Hi Carl, Have a look at Paddypower.com as there offering 5 places and if your horse is placed 6th you get your money back!!! How good an offer is that... Regards I agree also with Cordial so much so Ive put him in my round robin for today. e/w is 5 places:loon and he had a good run at Haydock and definatley worth 50's (401/ @ corals) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmcandrew Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Alright guys, if we're looking for value bets, get over to your nearest Paddy Power shop and get each way on Cordial (50/1) and Establishment (150/1). I have a feeling they will be the two dark horses of the race. Seeing as 5 places are being offered, it's a bit of a no-brainer that Establishment is at 150/1 if you ask me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch im also going with Fallons mount Afrad for the win (small stakes tho as 5/1 in a 36 race is poor value TBH and FAV's have a bad record here. also 1 I fancy is Seb Sanders riding Elusive dream.(at least you know seb gives 100% on his rides) a great form record 4th LTO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch cheers Jonesy :welcome to PL:ok and Matt for that matter:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch my 5 against the field are: establishment Elusive dream Hippodrome lets roll Land n stars ew singles on all plus an attempt at the tricast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Unbelievably the draw seems to have a definite effect on a horses chances in this race, even over the marathon trip. Draws of winners from the last 10 years are: 18/34, 36/36, 36/36, 32/32, 18/33, 17/32, 19/29, 6/31, 15/26, 18/21 The first 10 home last year were drawn: 18, 12, 32, 19, 35, 20, 29, 3, 16, 26 Evidently its going to be extremely difficult for any horse drawn in single figures to have an impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmcandrew Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Yep, that is one of the reasons I have tipped Cordial for the victory. A good draw and a good horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Trainer R Price freely admits in the RFO that he has laid out kast years 4th QUEDEX for todays race. He is able to run off the same mark and has a decent draw in 18. Interesting to note that the horse favours soft conditions so the ground today (although it is firming up a bit( should be in his favour. As per Jonesy Knows's post (welcome to PL by the way mate ;) ) Calamintha looks interesting as well at a big price :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Another pointer - Only 8 horses since World War 2 have carried more than 9 stone to victory which would place doubts over fancied Land n Stars and Sargeant Cecil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abbeytotal Posted October 15, 2005 Author Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Interesting stat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch great stats there AK:clap. I just feel that if Fallon ducks in this then its going to be a big price winner. 4 horses that Ive got noted down here are. Swift sailor Letsroll King Revo fortune Island quote taken off the placepot tipster. 3.45 For those of you that scoff a mention of the draw in marathon trips such as this, I have offered details of recent results, and high numbers usually have the call. I am reliably told that a low draw might not be such a bad position this year however, as the rail will me moved before the Cesarewitch, which means that these stayers will be racing on 'new ground' for part of the journey. INCHNADAMPH, LETS ROLL and KING REVO might be the call via this sector of the draw, whilst others to consider include SWIFT SAILOR, FORTUNE ISLAND and HIPPODROME from the higher numbers. ELUSIVE DREAM has won on types of ground, and it would be just like Sir Mark Prescott to come and lift the 'other half' of the Autumn Double, having missed out on the Cambridgeshire. Draw details: 2004: 18-12-32-19 (34 ran--soft) 2003: 36-18-12-19 (36 ran good to firm) 2002: 36-35-29-1 (36 ran good to firm) 2001: 32-19-31-30 (36 ran--dead) 2000: 18-6-20-21 (33 ran--dead) the only 1 Ive put money on is Elusive Dream. hope this helps.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Cheers Carl - here's some more i cut and pasted from another forum :lol I'll filter the field down and let you know what im left with.....gimme a few mins Here's some stats for the race 14/15 were rated no higher than 98 13/15 were in the first 6 lto. 2 u/p ran in the Northumberland plate. 14/15 had ran no more than 6 times that season. 15/15 had won over at least 14f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch Ok - if i've applied these correctly(??), i am left with Bronwen Ten Carat Afrad Fortune Island I dont agree that Fortune Island cant win from draw 16 - i think that is just about high enough and as Jonesy Knows said, the stable does well in this race. Ten Carat was fancied for this race last year but was badly drawn in 7 and flopped. Has run well this year without winning but looks primed for a big run. the price is very big in my opinion. Bronwen has improved and improved this year, only being out of the frame once. Slightly inexperienced but the price of 48.0 reflects that. Well worth a bet with stamina proven last time out. Afrad is too short in a race as competitive as this although he obviously has a chance. So my final bets are going to be £3.33 on the other 3 at the odds quoted from betfair. Phew! Bronwen 3.33 @ 48.0 Ten Carat 3.33 @ 32.0 Fortune Island 3.33 @ 22.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted October 15, 2005 Share Posted October 15, 2005 Re: Cesarewitch I thought King Revo was going to win from stall 1 then! that would have made me look like a right tit!! :lol Quality season from Sergeant Cecil - absolutely awesome performance today from horse and jockey, carrying 9stone 8lb's - :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.