Melbourne Cup

[Darran]

The Melbourne Cup is always one of my favourite races of the year and I've got a pretty good punting record in the race as well. I did miss out last year, but this year I have already put up the winner of the Caulfield Cup at 18/1 and the winner of the Cox Plate at 9/2 so we are well in profit for the Spring. Lots of UK and Irish interest not just with the horses currently trained here but there are plenty who used to be trained here. Here are my thoughts on the race

 

Vauban - Was a big disappointment in the race last year only finishing 14th. Willie Mullins thinks that he was undercooked having not run since the start of August as they were trying to protect his handicap mark. In an effort to get him up to speed they gave him a strong gallop just before the race and Mullins thinks that is where he left his race. Whatever happened he didn't find anything when asked for an effort. This year he was 2^nd in the Yorkshire Cup, 4^th in the Gold Cup when he didn't stay, 3^rd in the Curragh Cup, 1^st in the Lonsdale Cup and then 2^nd in the Irish St Leger. That means he has had 2 races more recently than he had last year. Stall 11 looks ideal and Buick should be able to get a nice position. Clearly has a leading chance.

 

Buckaroo - This horse has massively improved this prep and is a much better horse than when trained by Joseph O'Brien. He come over here a year ago and was 7^th in the King Charles III and 5^th in the Champions Stakes before transferring to Chris Waller. There was a bit of promise in his runs in the Autumn which included a 3^rd in the Ranvet Stakes. This prep though he has been top class. He won the Chelmsford Stakes over 1600m, then landed the Underwood Stakes over 1700m before only going down a head in the Turnbull to Via Sistina. That is clearly top class form given what she did in the Cox Plate. He then ran a stormer in the Caulfield Cup as he had got shuffled back and was 14^th for most of the way, 13^th at the 800m market and 8^th with 400m to go. The winner was away and gone by this point, but he put a clear margin between himself and the rest of the field. The 2400m trip that day is the furthest he has gone in a race, but he clearly was doing some great work at the finish and if his trainer thinks he can run 3200m then I am not doubting him. I also wonder if part of the reason for not running Via Sistina was because he knows this horse has a superb chance. Stall 21 could have been a bit better, but that means he has drifted in the betting and for me he is the best horse in the race.

 

Circle Of Fire - Another former UK trained runner who I put up to win the G2 Chairmans and G1 Sydney Cup in April. The Sydney Cup doesn't always work out that well regarding this race, but I initially thought that he could possibly be one to buck that trend (Makybe Diva the last to win both 20 years ago). The fact we know he stays is important, but I wanted to see more from him in the Caulfield Cup which I thought was just an average run. He settled in 10^th and finished 10^th which pretty much sums the run up. The other thing to add to the mix is he's drawn in 24 so all in all I can't have him as he just doesn't look in near the level he showed in the Autumn.

 

Warp Speed - He was another horse that I was looking to perform well at Caulfield with a view for this race which looks on paper a much more suitable test. I thought there was no promise at all in the run though as he finished in 13th. The only thing to note is the track was a Soft 6 and that wouldn't have been ideal so he will get his ground here. We know he stays so that helps, but overall he wouldn't be for me.

 

Kovalica - Been a long time since he last got his head in front and that came in the Queensland Derby in May 23. He's run the odd good race since, but I think this prep he looks to have improved. First up he was 3^rd in a G2 over 1400m, then he was 4^th in the G1 Epsom, before being the best of the swoopers in the G2 Hill Stakes. It was slightly surprising to see him go to the Cox Plate next, but whilst he clearly was never going to win I thought it was a promising effort in the circumstances. He's never been over this far, but he looks like he will stay and is capable of running a bold race for Chris Waller.

 

Sharp 'N' Smart - Come over from New Zeland and 4 starts back was running over 1200m! Did win the NZ Derby though, 2^nd in the Victoria Derby and was 4^th in the Australian Derby. Didn't show a great deal when 13^th in the Turnbull and then grinded into 3^rd place in the Moonee Valley Cup last time. I suspect he will stay 3200m, but hard to think he has the class to win this.

 

Just Fine - Ex Stoute horse who won the Group 1 Metropolitan at Randwick last September. His next win came a month ago in the G3 Bart Cummings over 2520m which is the furthest trip he has won over. Got a very good ride from the front that day to make all and things didn't go anywhere near as well in the MV Cup last time where he finished last. Bit odd why he ran in that as he was already in the race and going to be hard to make all here.

 

Land Legend - Landed the St Leger over 2600m a year ago so you would think this trip should be fine. This prep he landed the Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick just beating Zardozi, but he finished in front of that one in the Caulfield Cup last time when finishing 3rd. That was a solid effort, but unless Buckaroo doesn't stay I can't see him reversing that form, but he is one with some sort of chance of hitting the frame.

 

Absurde - Looked the winner last year for a fair way of the home straight before fading into 7th. It was still a very good run though and after going back hurdling and landing the County Hurdle at Cheltenham it has been all about getting him ready for a repeat bid. He was well beaten in the Irish St Leger, but there was plenty to like in his Chester Stakes win at the end of August. I love the booking of Kerrin McEvoy who has a great record in this race and I think he has a superb chance. He also gets to carry 0.5kg less than last year.

 

Athabascan - Ex-French horse who finished a good 2^nd in the Sydney Cup in April. Had various things against him in his first 3 starts this prep, but then landed the G3 St Leger at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. That was over 2600m and it did suggest that he could be ready to peak here. May not be quite good enough, but he is coming into this race in better form than the Sydney Cup winner. Will no doubt look to get a decent pitch from stall 2 and wouldn't be a total no hoper.

 

Knight's Choice - 16^th in the Turnbull, 14^th in the Caulfield Cup and then 5^th behind Sea King in the Bendigo Cup where it was a fair run, but all those runs sum up his remote chance for me.

 

Okita Soushi - Plugged on into 11th last in the race last year having been at the back for most of the race when trained by Joseph O'Brien. Wasn't seen again until the end of August and the first 2 runs of the prep were nothing special. He then found his form to finish 2^nd in the G2 Herbert Power at Caulfield over 2400m and then he landed the MV Cup in decent enough style beating former Derby winner Serpentine into 2nd. Could be peaking at the right time, but my main thought is the MV Cup isn't the right form race.

 

Onesmoothoperator - Won the Northumberland Plate in June and was a solid enough 7^th in the Ebor 2 months later. Most of his runs have been on the AW and his first ever turf victory was in the Geelong Cup. It was some performance as well as he beat Interpretation with ease. There are two ways of looking at that form. Interpretation was 6^th in this last year so to beat him so easily was a good effort, or you look at Interpretations form since that 6^th and think it didn't take much to beat a pretty weak field. It's probably somewhere between the 2, but I just find it hard to back a horse for the Melbourne Cup who is nearly 8 and who had a fair bit to find prior to Geelong. Obviously we know he stays and I think it would be going to far to say he can't win, but I think his price is unders now so I can't be backing him.

 

Zardozi - James Cummings is the grandson of Bart who is the winning most trainer of this race and he was never afraid to run one on the Saturday of the Carnival and James has done just that with this horse. She was one of my picks for the Caulfield Cup after finishing 2^nd to Land Legend in the Metropolitain and she ran a solid race at Caulfield to finish 4th. She won the Oaks a year ago over 2500m and is yet to run beyond that trip so stamina is a slight concern, but what really caught my eye was her run on Saturday in the G1 Empire Rose over 1600m. She was in the back pair for most of the way and was still 11^th at the 400m marker, but then she just sliced her way through the field without seemingly to even be trying that hard and she ended up finishing 5^th beaten 2.5L. That looked an ideal pipe opener for Tuesday and if she stays she could play a big part off a low weight.

 

Sea King - If you are backing him then you will be hoping Hollie gives him a better ride than she did Bradsell at Del Mar on Saturday! He was one place in front of Onesmoothoperator in the Ebor when trained by Sir Mark Prescott. He bolted up in the Benidgo Cup last week, but that isn't usually the form need to win this. I just struggle to see a horse who was beaten in the Bell-Ringer at Ripon in July can then go and win the Melbourne Cup. Will need a fair bit of luck from stall 1 as well .

 

Valiant King - Was 6^th in the Caulfield Cup when trained by Joseph O'Brien last year and was 9^th in the race this year now trained by Chris Waler. It was an OK run, but his only win came in a Navan maiden and stall 22 makes his life even harder.

 

Fancy Man - Won at Eagle Farm over 2400m last October, but then bombed out in the MV Cup on his next start. Then wasn't seen until September when 5^th and then was 3^rd in the Herbert Power. Caulfield Cup run was OK in 6th, but he hasn't shown much in the 2 times he's been further than 2400m and doesn't look good enough.

 

Interpretation - Ran a huge race in this last year as a 40/1 shot when finishing 6^th and was blocked in the run as well. Has been steadily improving this prep and was 2^nd to Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup. Not sure he's going to improve on that 6^th though.

 

Manzoice - Won the 2022 Victoria Derby, but has only been placed 3 times in 15 starts since. Was 14^th in the Sydney Cup, 10^th in the Bart Cummings and 7^th in the MV Cup and looks to have a very tough task on his hands.

 

Saint George - Ex Andrew Balding trained horse who should stay given he won over 2800m at Doncaster and then finished 2^nd in the Queens Vase. That was in 2023 and he didn't run from Newmarket's July meeting that year until the final day of August this year. The first two efforts were solid enough, but he was then disappointing in the Bart Cummings when only 9th. He was then 5^th in the MV Cup last time where again he rain OK.  I'd imagine he was purchased with this race in mind, but I'm just nor sure he's going quite well enough at the moment and it could be one to keep an eye on for next year's race.

 

The Map - Won the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m here in May which was a win and your in race for this. Given the fact she was already certain of a spot you would imagine she has been trained to peak for it even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more from her this prep. She was 5^th in the Herbert Power and 6^th in the Geelong Cup. Might be capable of running a decent race and is 2 from 3 at Flemington.

 

Trust In You - The last one in and connections will be pleased the vets ruled some of the other runners out! The New Zealand raider was 6^th in the Auckland Cup and is a G3 winner over 2400m. Last 2 runs have been solid enough being 4^th behind Land Legend in the Metropolitan and 4^th behind Athabascan in the St Leger. Struggle to see him being good enough.

 

Verdict - Vauban, Buckaroo, Kovalica, Absurde and Zardozi are the ones that interest me the most as being possible winners. There are obviously a few form lines through the MV Cup and the Geelong Cup, but I'm not sure they are the right pieces of form and if they happen to be then I've got it wrong. I think Buckaroo is the best horse in the race as his form is rock solid coming into this. Obviously the unknown is if he will stay or not, but I am happy to take a chance that it will and that his turn of foot is going to better than anything else in the race. If he doesn't quite see out the trip then Absurde is the 2^nd pick. He looked the winner last year until just fading in the last 200m. He looks primed to run a better race this time around and could become the first horse to win the County Hurdle and Melbourne Cup (yes that famous double!). Strictly speaking Zardozi wouldn't be an obvious one to reverse the Caulfield Cup form with Buckaroo or Land Legend, but I get the feeling that was part of the plan and that run on Saturday looked huge to me so she is the 3^rd pick. Kovalica is the 4^th pick as he might well have been crying to get back out to a trip that puts more of an emphasize on stamina and the Cox Plate run was solid. Vauban is the one that misses out, but if he went and won it wouldn't surprise.

 

1^st Buckaroo @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred

2^nd Absurde @ 8/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power

3^rd Zardozi e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

4^th Kovalic e/w @ 20/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Bet365 and Betfred (5 places)

[richard-westwood]

Very very difficult to rate because of lots of unknowns .....can't say I have a degree of confidence as a result but I've input as much as I can and computer has rated 

Onesmoothioperator.   1215 9.6

Land legend.  1200 18.0

Okita sushi.    1189

5 PT wins top 2 for a bit of fun 😊