Racing Chat - Saturday 5th October

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.30

The first of eight races covered by the ITV cameras today is this class 2 1M 2F fillies handicap. The race has an open look about it with William Haggas’s unexposed Min Huna heading the market following a 2L victory at Sandown in August. She’s unproven on soft ground and is up 8lb so is worth opposing in my opinion. One filly that is very unexposed is the Ralph Beckett trained Treasure who was a heavy ground winner at Nottingham this time last year and was only fourth, beaten 1 3/4L in the Lingfield Oaks Trial won by the now 113 rated You Got Me prior to finishing down the field in the Epsom Oaks. She may have found the ground too fast in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot and with a 105 day break could be well treated off of 92. A market move for her would obviously be interesting.

 

TREASURE 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 1.50

Just six have declared for this listed 5F BetMGM Rous Stakes. William Haggas’s three-year-old Relief Rally ran a blinder following a 126 day break when finishing runner up, beaten 1 1/4L, to No Half Measures who is fancied to run well in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp on Sunday. With that run behind him and his ability to handle plenty of cut in the ground he can go one better under Cieran Fallon who replaces Tom Marquand whose services are needed at Longchamp this afternoon.

 

RELIEF RALLY 1 point win @ 13/8 Betfred

 

Newmarket 2.05

A maximum field of twenty run in this 6F Tattersalls October Auction Stakes for two-year-olds. The highest rated at the weights is the Archie Watson trained Tafreej but he’s here on the back of a 106 day absence and has yet to encounter soft ground. One horse who arrives in good form and is a winner already on good to soft is the Andrew Balding trained Brighton Boy who was last seen dropping back to this trip when winning a class 3 nursery at York last month. It’s a little bit disconcerting that he sports first time cheek pieces as he certainly didn’t do anything wrong at York. Oisin Murphy was on top last time and retains the ride and in an open enough sales race is the selection in a race in which there is very little soft ground form.

 

BRIGHTON BOY 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365

 

Ascot 2.25

We have eight runners in the 1M 4F Group 3 BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes with Newmarket trainer William Haggas holding a strong hand with his brace of Al Aasy and Hamish. Both have to carry 3lb penalties with preference for the latter who may have had his excuses on his last two starts and will relish any juice in the ground. Karl Burke’s Al Qareem won this race a year ago and comes here in fine form having won a listed race at Chester last time out. He’s 3lb better off for a neck beating by Hamish in the John Porter at Newbury back in the spring and maybe able to turn the tables on his old rival and go back to back in this race under Clifford Lee.

 

AL QAREEM 1 point win @ 5/2 Ladbrokes

 

Newmarket 2.40

Just six have declared for the feature race of the day at Headquarters in the Group 1 Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies and mares. John & Thady Gosden set a poser by running both last year’s easy winner Inspiral and Nashwa who hasn’t been seen for 189 days and is overlooked here. The latter has to be a major player although she wouldn’t want the ground too soft and has the tendency to fall out of the stalls as she did last time out on France. I do feel she’s the one to beat however. David Menusier is having his best ever season and saddles his Group 3 Atalanta Stakes winner Tamfana who appreciated dropping back to a mile that day and has to be a player here. If the ground was to get even softer (unlikely with the weather forecast) then the Karl Burke trained Darnation looks massively overpriced with her form figures on soft ground reading 1111. Betfred are the only firm paying three places on this seven runner contest and if privy to their odds then it’s without doubt worth a small stakes each way wager on a horse who is only rated 8lb behind Inspiral and 4lb behind Tamfana. The main bet though has to be Inspiral who has a bit of class about her and is unbeaten on the Rowley Mile track.

 

INSPIRAL 1 point win @ 3/1 William Hill

DARNATION 1/4 point each way @ 33/1 Betfred 1/5th 123

 

Ascot 3.00

The 6F Group 3 John Guest Racing Benbough Stakes has attracted a field of nine and with 5lb on official ratings covering the entire field has an open look a bout it. The most interesting runner is the Owen Burrows trained Jarraaf who’s scored back to back handicaps over course and distance this summer. This is a step up in class for the lightly raced three-year-old and he also has to prove his ability to cope with softish ground. Andrew Balding’s Purosangue is a horse who will appreciate the soft ground and having finished runner up to Quinault in a listed race at York last time should be thereabouts. Also in the mix should be Ed Walker’s English Oak who has had a few excuses for a few below par runs since winning here at the Royal meeting and is now dropped in trip. A tight call but I’ll take a chance that Jarraaf will cope with the ease in the ground and as the least exposed in the field can win again with Saffie Osborne in the saddle.

 

JARRAAF 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Redcar 3.20

Twenty go for this 6F listed contest, the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy for two-year-olds. The clear best in at the weights is the Eve Johnson Houghton trained Billboard Star who has been plying his trade on his last four starts in Group 2 company, handles soft ground and is the one they all have to beat. Johnson Houghton won with a similar type in Chipotle three years ago in this race. One horse who may be a bit of value against the favourite is the Michael Dods runner Northern Ticker who although having a whopping 22lb to find with Billboard Star at these weights on official ratings is highly thought of by his shrewd handler. Paul Mulrennan rode him last time when winning at Carlisle and stated afterwards that he “he’s one of the best horses I’ve ridden for a long time”. His trainer has also said some very encouraging things about him mentioning this race as his target back in a Racing Post stable tour in August calling him “pretty useful”. He looks solid each way value with an additional place.

 

NORTHERN TICKER 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 3.35

The big handicap of the day is the BetMGM Challenge Cup run over the straight 7F for which there is a maximum field of eighteen. Ralph Beckett has his string in excellent shape and his Qirat is one for the short list having won a class 2 handicap at Goodwood last time out from Witness Stand who’s since won a listed race by 3L. He looks sure to be thereabouts and is the main pick. James Fanshawe’s course specialist Fresh arrives in good form and is another who can run well along with the 2nd and 3rd from the 7F handicap at Haydock 20 days ago in Golden Mind and Germanic. The former finished 1/2L in front of his rival that day and looks value at double the odds to run well. I’ll add him to my staking plan for this open handicap.

 

QIRAT 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

GOLDEN MIND 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

[richard-westwood]

335 ascot ...full and class 

Carrytheone. 425 421 446  12/1 Val 0.78 

Golden mind 412 409 421 14/1 Val 0.85 

Star of Orion 411 415 426 33/1 Val 2.01

Fresh 412 415 427 7/1 Val 0.43 

Divine Libra 408 402  410 

Overall value bet appears to be star of Orion who looks overpriced at 33/1 .....top 3 all look capable of handling soft and decent prices ....I'll try 5pt wins all 3 and forecasts

Carrytheone ...star of Orion ...golden mind 

Edited Friday at 12:22 PM by richard-westwood