Wimbledon 2024

[Fader]

Thread for Wimbledon, guys 

[Torque]

You getting involved this year @Fader

[Fader]

46 minutes ago, Torque said:

You getting involved this year @Fader

Might do but it was more as I was requested to create the thread 👌

[neilovan]

Wimbledon starts tomorrow, but I'm really not liking the men's action/side of the draw. Too many matches where the favorite is overwhelming.. Woman's side looks far more interesting. A lot of the time the big, experienced players don't play the warmup tournaments, or do them real justice. Garcia, Kvitova, Collins, Swiatek, Rybakina, Sabalenka, Djokovic etc. It is easier to plan your time, practice and rest every day on your own schedule. 

Two matches stand out for me.

Raducanu against Alexandrova.

No axe to grind with Radacanu. but she gets all the headlines while not being the British #1. I think she could get beaten in this match. Alexandrova is an equal or slightly superior player on grass.  This is a very tough 1st round match. 

I was really not impressed with Raducanu's last match against Kasatkina (Eastbourne). She got a proper beating, and was just unable to come to terms with the wind at Eastbourne.  I think the court looked a little slow (and so green) for grass. It was completely different to a dry harder surface at Bad Homburg. Some of the Wimbledon qualifying (Roehampton) was on TV here, and that surface speed looked more like a Wimbledon surface. If Alexandrova serves reasonably well, Raducanu is in big trouble.

Shnaider v Pliskova

This  match is scheduled for Monday, but may be pushed back as Shnaider won Bad Homburg on Saturday. I don't think it helps Shnaider to play tomorrow. An extra day of practice and rest is what she needs now. Pliskova is a very dangerous player especially on grass. Quite inconsistent, but everything is geared towards doing well at SW19. If they play tomorrow it definitely favors Pliskova.

She has an Atypical woman's game. Serve well and play 1st strike tennis on a fast surface.

For the other matches  on Monday I'll probably take some in-match bets, on a wait and see basis.

 

Great article on the life of the professional tennis player

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jun/27/the-loneliness-of-the-low-ranking-tennis-player

Edited June 30 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Let's get this done, guys! Good luck!

[neilovan]

One other match I like in the womans side is Stearns v Saville.

Realistically this is a matchup between 2 lower level players. You can see from their results (on grass) that when they play better players they are well beaten. Essentially they are lucky not to walk into a seed and get an uppercut! It's a great draw for both and they will be super motivated here.

Stearns has played 2 matches on grass getting thumped by Navarro at Bad Homburg (6-4  6-1), and winning when expected against a lower ranked opponent (Stusek).

Saville also getting beaten by the better players (Kenin, Krejcikova), but winning 3 matches at Birmingham and Nottingham. So her 6 matches on grass  resulted in 3 wins (which is not terrible). Its a matchup of serve breaks, and the player that holds their serve 1 extra time a set will probably win it. I think there is value on Saville here for the win.

Looking at the order of play it looks like 1-way traffic on center and court 1. Only interesting match is Raducanu but the rest is lousy matchups. Just lambs to the slaughter.

 

Going for 2 lowish priced bets in a double I would be looking at Monfils to beat Mannarino and Yue Yuan to beat Rus. Played 5 won 2 but took a set of Kasatkina at Eastbourne, and played very well against Potapova (who went slightly crazy). She also beat Shnaider at Hertogenbosch.

 

Edited July 1 by neilovan

[Torque]

A bit of an overarching post, but one area where there should be some value in this tournament is to fade clay court players. Nothing new there you say, that's a strategy to use every year, but this year there's the Olympics just around the corner in Paris on clay. If you're a good player on the dirt and not much good on the grass then it's not hard to imagine where your focus will be.

First example of that on the card is Ruud against Bolt. Ruud is dreadful on grass and has shown no real interest in trying to improve on the surface - famous quote about how it's for golf - and he's up against a player in Bolt who comes alive on the surface despite his limited game generally. He's 3.25 on the exchanges and I'll have a little bit of that.

[timovk]

Alexandrova, Ekaterina — Raducanu, Emma @1.73 VOID

Van Assche, Luca — Fognini, Fabio @2.00 OK

Monfils, Gael — Mannarino, Adrian @1.53 OK

Wawrinka, Stan — Broom, Charles @1.62 OK

GL You all!

Edited July 1 by timovk
3-0 (1 Void)

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, timovk said:

Alexandrova, Ekaterina — Raducanu, Emma @1.73 VOID

Van Assche, Luca — Fognini, Fabio @2.00

Monfils, Gael — Mannarino, Adrian @1.53

Wawrinka, Stan — Broom, Charles @1.62

GL You all!

I would fancy Mannarino instead of Monfils as Monfils is very bad on the surface while Mannarino is excellent and seeing how Monfils been doing in Wimby over the years as a 1.53 fav like that year when he got Gasquet in round 1 and came on as a fav being beaten in 3 by Richard. Also Mannarinos best surface has always been grass and he's already beaten Monfils at least once on the surface.

[four-leaf]

Adrian Mannarino to beat Gael Monfils at 2.55 with Coolbet

Reason as stated above I'll be on the underdog here. They've met in Wimbledon twice and once in Antalya on grass and it's 2-0 Mannarino after the last two. Monfils won 3-0 first time. Monfils is a better indoor hardcourt player and much better on clay compared to Mannarino but grass that's where the advantage tips over to Adrian.

[Schokolade2]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Adrian Mannarino to beat Gael Monfils at 2.55 with Coolbet

Reason as stated above I'll be on the underdog here. They've met in Wimbledon twice and once in Antalya on grass and it's 2-0 Mannarino after the last two. Monfils won 3-0 first time. Monfils is a better indoor hardcourt player and much better on clay compared to Mannarino but grass that's where the advantage tips over to Adrian.

Wow. You are rarely wrong, so I am worried for my bet. I took Monfils as part of a Parlay.

[four-leaf]

22 minutes ago, Schokolade2 said:

Wow. You are rarely wrong, so I am worried for my bet. I took Monfils as part of a Parlay.

Mannarino is looking sluggish with all the misses on first serve in the first set

[four-leaf]

@Schokolade2 I would cash out at any time where Mannarino ups his game being one set down. That time probably has come already in set 2 game 1.

[four-leaf]

Monfils is starting to miss and a lot..

[Schokolade2]

48 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@Schokolade2 I would cash out at any time where Mannarino ups his game being one set down. That time probably has come already in set 2 game 1.

I do not have a cash-out option with the bookie I went with for this match.

[four-leaf]

8 minutes ago, Schokolade2 said:

I do not have a cash-out option with the bookie I went with for this match.

Sorry bout that, but there is a reason why Mannarino has won 2 grass court titles while Monfils hasn't won any and Gaels record in Wimby is pretty bad since he just doesn't like moving on the surface..

[four-leaf]

4 hours ago, Schokolade2 said:

I do not have a cash-out option with the bookie I went with for this match.

I hope you'll get your win now when Monfils won

[neilovan]

What is the matter with Cirstea. A complete collapse after the 1st set?

 

6-3  2-6  0-6 seriously, what is that garbage?

Edited July 1 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Supposedly a heel injury.

[Schokolade2]

8 hours ago, four-leaf said:

I hope you'll get your win now when Monfils won

Shang and Stan had already done their bit. I hope you post more. Your tips are great to follow, win or lose

[CzechPunter]

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 2.60 with William Hill

Tomljanovic was excellent in the lead-up tournaments, so I think there's a fair bit of value in these odds. You never know what you're going to get with Ostapenko, and the faster conditions take time away from her bigger shots. Should be closer to 50/50 imo. 

Caroline Wozniacki to beat Alycia Parks at 1.67 with Bet365

Parks has a really good grass court record so far in this season, but Wozniacki is on another level, and also an awful match-up, as she's going to send plenty of balls back to Parks and get her to make her usual bonanza of unforced errors.

A.Murray/T.Machac - Over 3.5 sets at 1.60 with Unibet

I can't see past Machac in this one, but Murray should be able to fight back for at least one set in home conditions, he's certainly going to give it his all, and Machac is not some sort of a top 10 player with excellent consistency.

[timovk]

 

Bellucci  - Shelton @1.61 (situation 2-1) NO
Rune - Kwon over 3.5 sets @1.95 NO
Daniel - Tsitsipas -2.5 sets @1.66 YES
Ruusuvuori - McDonald @1.66 YES
Kopriva - Djokovic -2.5 sets @1.41 YES
Auger-Aliassime + Machac (Void) @1.37 NO
Krueger - Pegula -1.5 sets @1.58 YES
Wozniacki - Parks @2.30 NO
Haddad-Maia + Svitolina @2.02 YES

GL You all!

 

Edited July 3 by timovk
5-4

[neilovan]

Strange day yesterday, Pliskova played well and really should have won. 4-4 third set and 0-40 up, fails to break. But credit to Shnaider because she is having the run of her life. And she is deceptively good. Good serve, decent athlete, very good eye-hand coordination, and mentally tough. Being left handed gives her opponent additional problems. For me she is 1 of 2 dark horses in the ladies draw -  the other being Paolini, who has had an incredible rise (ranked 7th).

Raducanu catches a break by Alexandrova's withdrawal, and plays really poorly to beat a lucky loser. Yue Yuan plays poorly, and 2 other (small) bets lose from being 2 sets to 0 up (Arnaldi and Mensik). I was not really surprised re Mannarino losing because he has been on an awful run, which kills the mental confidence, and throws a player out of their routine. And everyone can play, just some days the mentality is not there.

I agree with CzechPunter regarding Tomljanovic and Ostapenko. Ostapenko just with 1 game plan (similar to the now departed Giorgi).  Hit the eyes outta it, and if that fails there is no plan "B". She is so unathletic.  Also no love lost between these 2 so there should be plenty of spice.

My bet with the most confidence today is Blinkova to beat Garcia. Blinkova is a little crazy (very similar to Yastremska), but she can play. She lost to Tomova at Bad Homburg in the semi's (her 2nd match of the day), after holding 5 match points. She should have won but was running on fumes in the last 6 games of that match. But Garcia is just playing rubbish. Like she has lost interest. Standing well in the court to receive and everything is total hit or miss. There is a reason she has fallen down to 24 in the rankings.  Her game is misfiring. She needs an injection of ideas and strategy from a new coach.

I think that Elina Avanesyan is going to beat Kalinina today. These Ukrainian v Russian matches tend to be quite emotional, and Avanesyan seems very level headed. It also helps that she is solid, with very good ability to figure matches out. My feeling is that Kalinina may get emotional and crumble. The other day I watched Yastremska play Shnaider, and Yastremksa went B%$^& crazy. She missed a few points and started hitting herself on the right thigh (hard) with the racquet. That was the end of that.

There is lots of value in those players that are no high in the public imagination.

Two other bets I like is Niemeier to lose to Golubic  and Eubanks to lose to Halys. Golubic played most/all of the warm up tournaments. Drilled Kenin 6-0 6-1 at Estbourne, went very close against Fernandez. Neimeier needs her serve to really work. She has lost some bad sets in recent matches.

For anybody who didn't see it go and look at the last point of the match between Lloyd Harris and Alex Michelsen. It is 9-8 in the 5th set tie breaker, and Harris plays the point of this years Wimbledon.  It is off the planet crazy.

Gl today.

 

Edited July 2 by neilovan

[neilovan]

47 minutes ago, timovk said:

 

Bellucci  - Shelton @1.61 (situation 2-1)
Rune - Kwon over 3.5 sets @1.95
Daniel - Tsitsipas -2.5 sets @1.66
Ruusuvuori - McDonald @1.66 
Kopriva - Djokovic -2.5 sets @1.41 
Auger-Aliassime + Machac @1.81 
Krueger - Pegula -2.5 sets @1.58 
Wozniacki - Parks @2.30 
Haddad-Maia + Svitolina @2.02 

GL You all!

 

@timovk Is the Pegula bet incorrect. Can't be -2.5 sets, must be -1.5

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 2.60 with William Hill

Tomljanovic was excellent in the lead-up tournaments, so I think there's a fair bit of value in these odds. You never know what you're going to get with Ostapenko, and the faster conditions take time away from her bigger shots. Should be closer to 50/50 imo. 

Caroline Wozniacki to beat Alycia Parks at 1.67 with Bet365

Parks has a really good grass court record so far in this season, but Wozniacki is on another level, and also an awful match-up, as she's going to send plenty of balls back to Parks and get her to make her usual bonanza of unforced errors.

A.Murray/T.Machac - Over 3.5 sets at 1.60 with Unibet

I can't see past Machac in this one, but Murray should be able to fight back for at least one set in home conditions, he's certainly going to give it his all, and Machac is not some sort of a top 10 player with excellent consistency.

@CzechPunter Wozniacki quit at the end of the 2nd set against Navarro, and she is not a quitter, so she may be carrying a slight niggle/injury. For me it is somewhat of a red (or caution) flag. 

The center court seems a bit greasy and green slick, and I don't think it is going to help Murray or Djokovic. I would be staying away from both because they are both pushing it, carrying injuries. Murray was always gonna say goodbye at Wimbledon, and he would have crawled on the court to do it.

Edited July 2 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

 

[Torque]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 2.60 with William Hill

Tomljanovic was excellent in the lead-up tournaments, so I think there's a fair bit of value in these odds. You never know what you're going to get with Ostapenko, and the faster conditions take time away from her bigger shots. Should be closer to 50/50 imo. 

Caroline Wozniacki to beat Alycia Parks at 1.67 with Bet365

Parks has a really good grass court record so far in this season, but Wozniacki is on another level, and also an awful match-up, as she's going to send plenty of balls back to Parks and get her to make her usual bonanza of unforced errors.

A.Murray/T.Machac - Over 3.5 sets at 1.60 with Unibet

I can't see past Machac in this one, but Murray should be able to fight back for at least one set in home conditions, he's certainly going to give it his all, and Machac is not some sort of a top 10 player with excellent consistency.

Murray out of the singles. Sad, but not unexpected.

[CzechPunter]

Bianca Andreescu to beat Linda Noskova at 2.10 with Bet365

I watched Noskova against Errani and I wasn't convinced one bit, so I don't see her as the fav against Andreescu. The Czech was a bit sluggish movement-wise, and needed plenty of time to adjust against the Italian, who was serving her plenty of easy balls back.

Clara Burel to beat Sonay Kartal at 2.20 with William Hill

Sonay Kartal had a good win against Cirstea in the first round, but that was without any pressure, and I'm not sure that she already deservers to be the favorite against Burel, who's more established and who wasted no time beating Lys. She had a bit of a cold and that's a slight worry, but 2.20 looks juicy enough for me to risk it.

[timovk]

Dimitrov -2.5 sets @2.20 NO
Monfils -1.5 sets @1.72 YES
Schnaider @1.60 YES
Osaka - Navarro over 2.5 sets @2.32 NO
Raducanu + Vekic @1.87 YES

GL You all ! 

Edited July 4 by timovk
3-2

[neilovan]

Expecting 2nd player to win in all of the below cases.

At some point Krejcikova will actually start playing tennis closer to her ability. Injury effects still lingering but mentally quite fragile.

The Nakashima v Thompson match should be a long one. Very evenly matched. Shelton got through 1st match but not playing great. Harris on the comeback trail, and so difficult if he serves well. I expect at least 1 tie  breaker here.  Osaka went walkabout in her 1st match. Serving really poorly, against an opponent who should have won (Parry).  Haddad-Maia just inconsistent, and Niemeier v Golubic is worth the price.

Kudermetova V.	Krejcikova B.
Haddad-Maia B.	Frech M.
Niemeier J	Golubic V.
Nakashima B.	Thompson J.
Shelton B.	Harris L.
Osaka N.	Navarro E.

 

Agree with @timovk regarding Shnaider. I think Stephens gets smashed. The 2:0 Shnaider at 2.5 is def worth a bet and if you can get handicap over 5.5 it is probably also worth it. I would add Paolini  and Badosa as well, or maybe go Shnaider and Paolini. Paolini is actually excellent. Had a strange semi against Kasatkina where she was 2-1 up 3rd set and serving 40-15. Lost that game and then lost the next after being 0-40 up. Then lost her composure/focus for 10 minutes and that was that. Maybe slight mental fatigue in that match, but should be way too strong for Minnen.

 

Edited July 3 by neilovan