Royal Ascot 2024 Ante-Post Preview Day 3

[StevieDay1983]

Here is the third instalment of the Royal Ascot 2024 ante-post previews that I am posting on behalf of @The Brigadier. This is actually the last of these from him. The final two days are being previewed by @Tumbleweed King and will be posted on Monday. Read on to see who The Brigadier is backing for the races on Thursday ahead of the 48-hour declarations being confirmed later this week.

 

Royal Ascot Day 3 Ante-Post Tips Preview

Day three is traditionally known as Ladies Day so expect to see the fairer sex out in their finery. The feature race is undoubtedly the Ascot Gold Cup which has been won by greats such as Ardross, Yeats and Stradivarius. Run over a stamina-sapping 2M 4F it is the only Group 1 on the card today. 

There are three other Group races on the card in the Group 2’s Ribblesdale Stakes for the three-year-old fillies, the Norfolk Stakes for the two-year-old speedsters and the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes for three-year-olds. 

The meeting also includes three tricky handicaps in the shape of the King George V Stakes for three-year-olds, the Britannia Stakes for three-year-olds and the Buckingham Palace Stakes.

14:30: Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) 5F 2yo

First run in 1843, this race is run over the minimum trip and is, unlike most of the juvenile races this week, open to both sexes.
The market is always a good guide with only six of the last 25 winners going off bigger than 10-1 although outright favourites have a poor record with the last two winners being returned at 50-1 and 150-1.

Favourite

Whistlejack (Aidan O’Brien) 2yo colt: Stepped forward from a highly promising racecourse debut second when comfortably winning a listed race at Curragh over today’s trip of 5F. Apparently, his work's been very good since and the one to beat.

Dark Horse

Saturday Flirt (Wesley Ward, USA) 2yo colt: Owned by Mrs Fitri Hay he won his maiden impressively at Keeneland in April and as you expect from one of Wesleys is blessed with plenty of natural speed. Hard to assess but could be a player.

Outsider

Shareholder (Karl Burke) 2yo colt: Came from the breeze ups and made a professional winning debut in the Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley earlier this month. Owned by Wathnan Racing and expect plenty of improvement.

Pont Neuf (Eve Johnson Houghton) 2yo gelding: Unbeaten in two starts at Kempton and Salisbury with the latter form already working out well with the runner-up Kassaya winning since. Won’t mind any rain and a likely outsider.

Selection

Whistlejack (N.B.)

 

15:05: King George V Stakes (Handicap) 1M 4F 3yo

Established in 1948 this is usually a tricky handicap that can produce a future group horse as a winner with Hukum and last year’s winner Desert Hero prime examples.

The Johnston yard has a good record in the race with six victories whilst the Sir Michael Stoute stable has racked up four. The market is usually a good guide to the outcome although there have been 18-1 and 22-1 winners in the last five years.

Favourite

Persica (Richard Hannon) 3yo colt: Impressive winner at Epsom over 10F on Derby Day when making most to hold off the well-fancied Portsmouth by 2 1/4L. A 9lb rise for that victory will make things harder but should be suited by the extra 2F.

Dark Horse

Poniros (Ralph Beckett) 3yo colt: Made an excellent start in handicaps when chasing home the impressive winner King’s Gambit in the London Cup Handicap at Newbury with Persica 1 1/2L behind. Steps up to a mile and a half which should suit and despite a 4lb rise can be thereabouts.

Outsider

French Duke (Roger Varian) 3yo colt: Makes his handicap debut here following a short head second to Hosaamm in a Newbury maiden and this longer trip should suit this son of Sea The Stars. William Buick is provisionally booked and looks like a likely outsider.

Going The Distance (Ralph Beckett) 3yo gelding: Is chasing a four-timer following victories at Ffos Las, Nottingham and on his handicap debut at Kempton in April. Raised 7lb here but is very much on the upgrade.

Selection

Poniros

 

15:45: Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) 3yo fillies

Established in 1919, the race is the premier middle-distance contest for three-year-old fillies at the meeting and usually features those that have raced in Europe’s Oaks contests.

Over the past eighteen years, the winner has come ten times from a Newmarket-based trainer and eight times from Ireland.
It normally pays to concentrate on the top end of the market with sixteen of the last 17 winners coming from the top five in the betting.

Favourite

Diamond Rain (Charlie Appleby) 3yo filly: Unbeaten filly from top connections. Followed up Ascot victory in May by winning competitive listed race at Newbury 17 days later over 1M 2F. Extra two furlongs will suit and look like a major player.

Dark Horse

Kalpana (Andrew Balding) 3yo filly: Impressive winner at Newmarket of 10F handicap in April and followed up with a 1 1/4L second to Friendly Soul in Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. The winner flopped in Musidora so the form is hard to assess.

Outsider

You Got Me (Ralph Beckett) 3yo filly: Stepped up from Lingfield Oaks Trial victory when finishing fourth in the Epsom Oaks (beaten 8 1/4L). Stays well and has each-way claims.

Danielle (John & Thady Gosden) 3yo filly: Disappointing when 1 1/2L third to the re-opposing You Got Me in Lingfield Oaks Trial but lightly raced from big stable so no shock was she to turn the tables on that rival and run well each way.

Selection

Diamond Rain

 

16:25: Gold Cup (Group 1) 2M 4F 4yo+

First run in 1807 the race is the premier staying race of the British Flat season. Aidan O’Brien has a terrific record in the race with eight victories including Yeats who won it four years on the bounce from 2006 to 2009. Fancied runners have an excellent record with sixteen of the last 24 running’s falling to one of the top two in the betting.

Favourite

Kyprios (Aidan O’Brien) 6yo horse: Won this in 2022 when he was unbeatable in the staying division winning all six of his starts including an unbelievable 20L victory in the mud in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran at Longchamp on Arc weekend. Wasn’t at his best the following season but looks back to somewhere near his best this season when landing a listed race at Navan and the Group 3 Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown at big odds-on. Workmanlike last time but very much the one to beat.

Dark Horse

Vauban (Willie Mullins) 6yo gelding: Tries this longer trip for the first time. Ran out a very easy winner of the Copper Horse Handicap over three-quarters of a mile shorter last year before flopping in the Melbourne Cup. Ran well on re-appearance when second to Giavellotto in the Yorkshire Cup (beaten 4 3/4L). Has to prove his stamina although looks like he will relish it.

Outsider

Trawlerman (John & Thady Gosden) 6yo gelding: One of three likely runners for the Gosden’s alongside Gregory and Sweet William. Not seen since third to Tower Of London in Dubai Gold Cup in March. Did actually beat Kyprios here in the Long Distance Cup over half a mile shorter at Champions Day last October and holds each-way claims.

Selection

Kyprios

17:05: Britannia Stakes (Handicap) 1m 3yo colts & geldings

Established in 1928 the race is run on the straight mile and is open to three-year-old colts and geldings only. Only two favourites have won in the last seventeen runnings including last year's victor Docklands. 

Favourite

Qirat (Ralph Beckett) 3yo gelding: Impressed when scoring in a similar handicap for three-year-olds at Goodwood last month and with only a 4lb rise to contend with looks the sort to be involved at the finish with further improvement to come.

Dark Horse

Skukuza (Ed Dunlop) 3yo colt: Followed up a second to Volterra at Newmarket by winning back there a fortnight later by 1 1/4L from Lautrec and with a 5lb rise to overcome could quite easily be in the shake-up with William Buick provisionally booked.

Outsider

Starlore (Sir Michael Stoute) 3yo colt: Was denied a run close home when seventh to Qirat at Goodwood, going down by only 2 1/2L and with a 2lb pull and more luck in running is an interesting outsider.

Native Warrior (Karl Burke) 3yo colt: Has been allotted a handicap mark of 90 following a maiden win at Nottingham last month when scraping home from Fayqa. His previous fourth to 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech is in excellent form and this Wathnan Racing-owned colt could be well treated.

Selection

Starlore (e/w)

 

17:40: Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) 1M 2F 3yo

Added to the card in 2002 this will be only the 22nd running of the Group 3 contest which was upgraded in 2011. The market is usually a good guide to the winner with none of the last twelve winners priced at bigger than 7-1. The race normally falls to one of the powerhouses of racing with only Aidan O’Brien or Newmarket trainers winning 13 of the last 16 renewals.

Favourite

Brackens Laugh (Richard Hughes) 3yo colt: Looked good at Chelmsford in April and went down by only half a length to Capulet in Dee Stakes at Chester’s May meeting. Still progressing

Caviar Heights (Karl Burke) 3yo colt: Impressed when winning listed race at Newmarket in May but a bit below that form when only sixth of seven in Dante at York a fortnight later. Maybe that race came too soon and is worth another chance.

Dark Horse

King’s Gambit (Harry Charlton) 3yo colt: Impressive winner of 10F London Cup Handicap, looking all over like a group horse and no shock that he’s been fast-tracked into this company. A serious player.

Outsider

Al Musmak (Roger Varian) 3yo colt: Disappointed on re-appearance when last of seven in Dante at York. Better than that and has worked well since. Better expected here.

Selection

King’s Gambit

 

18:15: Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) 7F 3yo+

Added to the card in 2002 but removed in 2015 the race was reinstated in 2020 as part of the extended race card. There has never been a successful favourite in the 17 runners with only two runners obliging in single-figure odds. A race to look for an outsider.

Favourite

Northern Express (Michael Dods) 6yo gelding: Was third in this race last year and arrives in excellent form having gone down by just a neck to Point Lynas at York in the Hambleton Handicap over a mile. Dropping back to 7F here can suit them and they should run a good race.

Dark Horse

Kings Time (Jessie Harrington) 4yo gelding: An interesting runner from Ireland. Won a fifteen-runner valuable handicap at Cork last month following a 272-day break and should strip fitter for that run and as a lightly raced horse could get involved in the finish.

Outsider

Carrytheone (Michael Bell) 7yo gelding: Came good at 22/1 in a 7F Newmarket handicap last time out and has only been raised a couple of pounds. Arrives in good form and is a lively outsider.

Never So Brave (Sir Michael Stoute) 3yo colt: Not a certain runner as is supposed to be heading for the Jersey Stakes but with the big possibility of Haatem going there maybe the connections will re-route him here. A major player if that scenario plays out.

Selection

Kings Time (e/w)

 

Final Thoughts on Royal Ascot Day 3

Over halfway through the greatest flat meeting of the season with another two days of action to come but always remember to gamble responsibly.

A recap of the day’s selections:

14:30    Whistlejack (N.B.)
15:05    Poniros
15:40    Diamond Rain
16:25    Kyprios (NAP)
17:05    Starlore (each way)
17:40    King’s Gambit
18:15    Kings Time (each way)

Be sure to visit our Royal Ascot tips page to see who The Brigadier is backing after the 48-hour declarations have been announced. You can also find some superb Royal Ascot free bets on our site. Tumbleweed King will bring us his day 4 and day 5 ante-post previews tomorrow! 

[richard-westwood]

Norfolk stakes 2.30

I think this race will hinge on what o brien can do with whistlejack .....and he's short priced 6/5 ....but I think that's a silly price considering ....I've run the race through the computer and it's adamant TROPICAL STORM is the Ew value bet at 25/1 ....so that's good value and good enough for me ....5pt Ew 

Edited June 19 by richard-westwood