richard-westwood Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 (edited) Just starting a discussion about the big races this weekend .....not sure what the ground will be yet .....with scattered showers currently on the soft side ....it's possible it might dry and go off good sft ..... The derby is a bit of a puzzle .....all hinging on what city of Troy is ....certainly looks an o brien derby type but I've got to remain neutral and give the computer all the form as I see it and let it decide ... Derby Ambient friendly 8.9. Class 65 Ancient wisdom. 8.7 class 99 Illinois 8.3. class 60 City of Troy 8.0 ? ++ Dancing Gemini. 7.9 Diego valzquez. 7.6 Macduff. 7.6 Los Angeles. 7.4 Dallas star 7.1 Portland 7.1 Seyadati sedati. 7.0 Gods window. 6.7 Voyage. 6.7 Bellum Justum. 6.7 Diera mile. 6.5 Euphrates 6.5 Euphoric 6.5 Defiance 6.5 Padesha 6.5 Kamboo 6.5 Mister Hampstead 6.5 Tabletalk 6.5 Ambient friendly looks the form choice overall and has been heavily backed into around 9/2.....an ient wisdom steps up in trip from 10f but has a much higher class rating so if gets the distance he could easily spring a surprise .....Illinois was annilated by ambient friendly so I can't see that one being a danger but is priced at big prices (33?). So.could be a value Ew bet especially if could get 4 places or better ......before betting was suspended on Betfair there was 7.0 and 7.8 available and that looks value bets on top two so if that is still available when betting resumes I'll be taking that on top two ......interesting and classy race Edited May 28 by richard-westwood yossa6133, Bedlam, Zilzalian and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 Shall we do a derby oaks experiment? @MCLARKE @richard-westwood @harry_rag MCLARKE and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 I’m game if everyone else is. You collate the individual ratings again and I’ll put them through the mincer. Zilzalian and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offramp Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 I'm going down there, innit. I'm gonna bunk into the Ladies enclosure. aren't I? richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 3 hours ago, Zilzalian said: Shall we do a derby oaks experiment? @MCLARKE @richard-westwood @harry_rag Yep, I'll look at my speed figures and also look at the stats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 Oaks : Treasure Derby : Dancing Gemeni Both eway IF they're declared & if the word soft is in the going . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 On 5/27/2024 at 9:31 AM, richard-westwood said: Just starting a discussion about the big races this weekend .....not sure what the ground will be yet .....with scattered showers currently on the soft side ....it's possible it might dry and go off good sft ..... The derby is a bit of a puzzle .....all hinging on what city of Troy is ....certainly looks an o brien derby type but I've got to remain neutral and give the computer all the form as I see it and let it decide ... Derby Ambient friendly 8.9. Class 65 Ancient wisdom. 8.7 class 99 Illinois 8.3. class 60 City of Troy 8.0 ? ++ Dancing Gemini. 7.9 Diego valzquez. 7.6 Macduff. 7.6 Los Angeles. 7.4 Dallas star 7.1 Portland 7.1 Seyadati sedati. 7.0 Gods window. 6.7 Voyage. 6.7 Bellum Justum. 6.7 Diera mile. 6.5 Euphrates 6.5 Euphoric 6.5 Defiance 6.5. Ambient friendly looks the form choice overall and has been heavily backed into around 9/2.....an ient wisdom steps up in trip from 10f but has a much higher class rating so if gets the distance he could easily spring a surprise .....Illinois was annilated by ambient friendly so I can't see that one being a danger but is priced at big prices (33?). So.could be a value Ew bet especially if could get 4 places or better ......before betting was suspended on Betfair there was 7.0 and 7.8 available and that looks value bets on top two so if that is still available when betting resumes I'll be taking that on top two ......interesting and classy race Padesha, Kamboo, Mr Hampstead, and Tabletalk, Richard? @MCLARKE waiting on the derby and oaks @richard-westwood waiting on the Oaks... @harry_rag you may want to look to have your own column if you decide to weight the lists re the higher weighting towards my rating, that may show something a bit different. Once the two slackers pull their respective fingers out i will send you the data lists. 😁 harry_rag and MCLARKE 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 28 Author Share Posted May 28 3 hours ago, Zilzalian said: Padesha, Kamboo, Mr Hampstead, and Tabletalk, Richard? @MCLARKE waiting on the derby and oaks @richard-westwood waiting on the Oaks... @harry_rag you may want to look to have your own column if you decide to weight the lists re the higher weighting towards my rating, that may show something a bit different. Once the two slackers pull their respective fingers out i will send you the data lists. 😁 Dunno what happened there 🤣🤣🤣.....they are all crap so they go on 6.5 .....can't see them troubling anyone........just got back from work so I'll start on the oaks .....should have it done in next few hours 😁 Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 28 Author Share Posted May 28 (edited) Oaks ... Ylang ylang 9.0 Ezeliya 9.0 Secret satire. 8.6 Opera singer 8.3 You got to me 8.1 Rubies are red 8.1 Forest fairy 8.0 Caught you looking 8.0 Treasure 7.8 Everlasting 7.8 Dance sequence. 7 .4 Seeward. 7.4 Buttons. 7.0 Making dreams 6.8 War chimes 6.5 Very very difficult race to assess because on paper this looks a sub standard oaks .....there's more likelyhood that something is going shoot forward on the day but the question is who !?? The average oaks winner is around rpr 115 .....ylang is 110 ....ezeliya 106 ...secret satire 106 ....rest are no where near so far so for me it's between the top 3 .......ylang is the group one performer but only at 8f ....surely Aiden o brien has got to win a big race ???... Is this the one ?.....ezeliya looks a true oaks type .....improving fast and won over 10f last time in a canter .....improvement of 5 to 6lb would put her fav imo ...isn't stepping up much further distance wise and improvement very likely Secret satire looks to have decent place claims and has been backed from big odds into around 14/1 ....that still looks value For me ....it's ezeliya ....but this could be a titanic battle if ylang gets the distance .....classy race Edited May 28 by richard-westwood harry_rag and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 I would like to suggest anyone who is thinking that City of Troy is worth a bet at that price needs to seriously think about how they approach assessing a race, form and their betting. The bookies and not the punters have made it that price based on anything other than common sense and their greedy belief that there are people who will actually take the worst price possible on an event. Yes the detractors will point to last year blah blah blah but come on people are we really that f'in gullible? last time i checked there were well over 2000 flat races in this country in any season and you don't have to bet in them all. Just remember even if it wins by 10 lengths it does not negate what i am saying here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 I agree with City Of Troy, I didn't have him well rated before the guineas and he was rubbish in that. Based on my speed figures the key race is the Lingfield Derby Trial which was run 1.71 secs faster than standard. On that basis I have Ambient Friendly top rated at 7/1 with Illinos 2nd at 40/1 richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 Not a lot between the top 4 in the Oaks. Again the Lingfield trial appears to be the key race, You Got To Me beat Rubies Are Red but is 12/1 compared to 4/1. Guess which one is trained by Aiden O'Brien ! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thornwick Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 Not having a bet in derby but if I did would back city of troy WIN and lay it place if it doesn't will will be out back of telly!!!! yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Trends for the Derby Draw 7 to 14, 9 winners from 73 runners, LSP 75 points. Remainder 1 from 72, LSP -54. Last ran more than 22 days ago, 8 from 89, LSP 35 This leaves 5, all at big odds TABLETALK 100/1 MACDUFF 14/1 BELLUM JUSTUM 22/1 DEIRA MILE 25/1 DALLAS STAR 33/1 richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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