NFL Week 11 - Predictions

[harry_rag]

Week 11 rumbling into view.

[PercyP]

Week 10 Results

Week 10 was a fairly average week with two winners (49Ers and Steelers), one draw (Lions) and two losers (Bengals and Saints).

Picks 5 Won 2 Drew 1 Lost 2, Staked 30 points, Returned 3.50 points for a loss of 26.50 points.

ATS YTD record

Picks 50 = W26 D4 L20 – staked 300.00 points – returned 780.09 points resulting in a 2023 seasonal profit of +480.09 points

1. 49Ers ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11 - 49Ers win easily 34-3. WON

 After week 5 the 49Ers were 5-0 and top of most power rankings. With players due back after a break week, I expect to see a rejuvenated 49Ers team. 49Ers back to form. With their best players available the 49Ers appear bound for the Super Bowl.

2. Lions to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11 – Lions win 41-38. DRAW

The Lions continue to excel. The Chargers are one dimensional and struggled to beat the Jets. What a game. Lions nearly gave the game away in the final quarter.

3. Steelers to win ATS -3.0 points @ 5/6 – Steelers win by four 23-19. WON

The Steelers are hard to beat. I can’t image Jordan Love having a comfortable time in Pittsburg. Somehow the Steelers eek out a win.

 4. Bengals to win ATS -7.0 points @ 1/1 – Bengals come a cropper losing 27-30. LOST

Last week rookie QB C.J.Stroud had a record breaking performance. It will be difficult for him to repeat particularly in the “Jungle”. Joe Burrow will show who is, the elite QB. Rookie outshines Burrow. I underestimated the kid.

5. Saints to win ATS -2.5 points @ 5/6 – Vikings win 27-19. LOST

Vikings stand in QB Joshua Dobbs had a fairy tale debut beating the Falcons. He will not find it so easy against the Saints. The fairy tale continues.

[PercyP]

Week 11 Picks

49Ers, Dolphins, Bills, Commanders and Chargers all appear nailed on this week according to the pundits. However this is the NFL and surprises do and will happen. I would not be surprised to see 2+ upsets ATS, so I have purposefully avoided these games.

1. Bengals to win ATS +3.5 points @ 10/11 – THURSDAY NIGHT

Defeat against the Texans last week, makes this a must win game for the Bengals. Injuries to key players in the Ravens line up helps the Bengals cause.

2. Titans to win ATS +7.0 points @ 10/11

The Titans are an extremely physical team. Just the type of team Trevor Lawrence hates to play. It is time for Derrick Henry to show his talent.

3. Dallas Cowboys to win ATS -10.5 points @ 10/11

Dallas has a habit of beating up on bad teams and the Panthers are bad (1-8).  Dallas should win big.

4. Browns to win ATS -1.0 points @ 10/11

Despite winning for me last week, the Steelers are by far the luckiest team in the NFl.  However their best form comes at home. The Browns also excel at home (4-1), with their one loss coming against the Ravens when their QB was injured. The Steelers luck will run out this week.

5. Lions to win ATS -7.5 points @ 10/11

Even with Justin Fields back, I cannot see how the Bears keep this close. The Lions are better in all positions.

[harry_rag]

Chase at 2.36 a bet for me in the first game. Would’ve took the best available 13/10 if necessary.

[fd1972uk]

Went Ravens win, 17 pts ravens, 12 pts bengals, Mitchell and mixon tds

[MinellaWorksop]

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Chase at 2.36 a bet for me in the first game. Would’ve took the best available 13/10 if necessary.

Well done Harry. Chase delivers the goods.

[MinellaWorksop]

Results update from last week,

Home Teams: 4/9, -2.62pts

Away Teams: 3/6, +3.30pts

One Selection this week and odds boosted bet builder with Hills

Home Team: Denver Broncos 1.67 Bet365

The Broncos play at home to the Minnesota Vikings in the early hours of Monday morning UK time. This will be a close game though The Broncos have beaten some decent teams recently and I will side with them to do so again.

 

The bet builder is based on the same game and has three legs

Denver Broncos Win

Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Russell Wilson to throw Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Boosted from 5/1 to 10/1 with the Hills NFL epic boost offer.

[harry_rag]

5 anytimes for me this week.

Singletary (Houston) 23/20 Lads

Conner (Arizona) 11/10 Sky Bet

Achane (Miami) evens Sky Bet

Robinson (Washington) 11/10 Sky Bet

Gibbs (Detroit) 5/4 Hills

Gibbs and Achane the nap and nb based on perceived margin.

Small treble on the middle 3 as all with the same firm. Played 15/2 the brace on Gibbs as both prices are so standout (he's odds on across the board elsewhere in the AT TD market). Weekly epic boost played on Detroit win, Gibbs TD and a Goff interception at 12.5/1.

75 points risked in total (12 each on the singles and 5 each on the "exotics"). See what comes back. 

[fd1972uk]

Acca - 49ers (-4.5), cowboys (-4.5), lions (-1.5), jags, texans, dolphins (-8.5)

Td any

Pollard, etienne, mostert, singletary,  mccaffrey

On miami have epic odds on hill 1st td, mostert any and miami -6.5

Cowboys, any td lamb and thielen, dallas win, ep each team

 

 

[fd1972uk]

Mostert beats BB and Dolphins beat Acca. Meh

Got 49ers on 2 bets, need 49ers win, 20 pts 49ers, 32 pts total, Samuel any td and mccaffrey first tm td.

Also 49ers win, 28 pts total, mccaffrey/Samuel any td, moody fg and both teams ep

Buffalo

Diggs 1st tm td, 2 td bills, Bills win, 30 pts

allen 1st tm td, billsnwin, 29 pts total

 

[MinellaWorksop]

As with my other bet builder last week got 2 out of the 3 legs correct. I'll keep having a play with these with the Hills excellent boost offer.

[harry_rag]

On 11/19/2023 at 2:34 PM, harry_rag said:

75 points risked in total (12 each on the singles and 5 each on the "exotics"). See what comes back.

Only 2 out of 5 on the singles for a small loss on those but the BB landed at double odds so a 45.3 point profit on the night.

I could make a case for Kelce, Pacheco, Hurts, Brown and Swift at the prices today but will decide later on any singles. Just a BB for now; Pacheco TD, Mahomes >1.5 passing TDs and Mahomes >0.5 interceptions at 59/10.

[harry_rag]

Played Hurts at 23/20, spreads edged up which makes him a system pick. Kelce would have been but he's dipped below the minimum fixed odds price.

Played Hurts and Mahome both to throw 3+ TD passes at 18/1 with Lads. Not that confident but it's a double up boost that earns me a matched fiver freebie so it's essentially a shot to nothing. Would wipe out my season deficit should it land.

[harry_rag]

Hurts lands so that's 4 from 7 for a profit on the anytime singles this week. A Pacheco TD shy of landing the BB but with the Epic Odds one landing it's probably been my best week so far.