100 First Goalscorers

[harry_rag]

Title says most of it but I'll edit this post tomorrow to flesh out the thinking. Just wanted to get the thread started so I can post the first selection.

"The thinking" - Been backing a few players for first goal of late, mostly where i can get them each way but sometimes backing first goal "win only". My simplistic thinking is that, where you think a player is value to score at anytime then the first goal price is value as well as long as it is at least 3 times the anytime price. Where it's more than 3 times as much and you can back each way then the "place" terms are actually better than the anytime price.

Most of the selections will be anytime bets where the first price is at least 3 times the anytime odds. Sometimes there will be a first goalscorer bet where the anytime price is too short (e.g. player is odds on to score but 7/2 for first goal; the "place" terms of 1/3 the odds would be odds against which would be a bet if available in the anytime market). I'll flag such a selection when it arises to make it clearer.

Maximum four selections per day, see what it looks like after 100 bets.

Edited November 15, 2023 by harry_rag
Added "the thinking" for the thread

[harry_rag]

Bet 1 is McAtee for Barnsley at 6/1 with 365.

Given the line up (Watters not starting pushing McAtee up the pecking order) I'm on him anytime at 8/5. 6/1 seems good for first on that basis.

Won't be putting 2 up in the same game but could make a case for Kane at 10/1 (I took 9s earlier). 5/2 anytime not quite enough to tempt me in. (Possible penalty taker.)

[harry_rag]

Bet 2 is Collins for Derby at 15/4 with the same firm.

Anytime at evens gets a "value rating" of 100 which is pretty rare. Either he's a cracking bet or SX have greatly overpriced his goal minutes. (One of the negatives of the demise of SPIN is that there's no longer a 2nd opinion to identify likely ricks, but one can only trust the numbers one has in this new single firm era.)

[harry_rag]

McAtee scores twice but not first, Collins doesn't score. Standings so far.

I'm recording the following:

• Number of selections
• Return to £1 level stakes on first goalscorer
• Return to £1 level stakes on anytime goalscorer (assuming 1/3 the odds for first goal)
• Return to 50p each way level stakes on first goalscorer (at 1/3 the odds for the "place")
• Return to £1 level stakes on last goalscorer
• Respective ROI for the above and the numbers of winning selections
• How many players score the different number of goals from 0 to 4 or more

Last goalscorer tracked just out of curiosity, I don't think it's a great bet at the same odds as 1st because of the probability that more last goals will be scored by subs. Number of goals scored also out of curiosity, I'm not capturing prices for brace and hat trick but it's worth seeing how often they occur. (I can compare that to my larger existing data samples and work out what sort of price you'd need for it to be worthwhile relative to the anytime price.)

[harry_rag]

Bet 3 is Blackett-Taylor at 15/2 with 365 (into 7/1 now)

Took this in the hope that May wouldn't start; can make a case for him at 3/1 first versus odds on quotes for anytime but, all in all, I'm plumping for the bigger price offering the better edge here. The 5/2 for the "place" looks massive (21/10 anytime itself being a massive standout).

[harry_rag]

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 3 is Blackett-Taylor at 15/2 with 365 (into 7/1 now)

Took this in the hope that May wouldn't start; can make a case for him at 3/1 first versus odds on quotes for anytime

Backed the wrong horse there (for this thread at least). May opens the scoring and adds a second while the selection draws a blank. Net profit on the game due to using a freebie on May 1st goal (as per FA Cup thread) but still waiting for the first "full fat" winner in here.

[alexcaruso808]

Good luck, Harry.

[harry_rag]

Bet 4 is Joselu for Spain at 10/3 with 365

46 to buy on the spreads and 4/7 best anytime, place terms equates to better than evens anytime (someone forgot to check the "each way" bet when placing their bet)!

[harry_rag]

Scores 3rd goal. Must remember to choose each way where that's the intention! 

[harry_rag]

Bet 5 is Ramos for Portugal at 19/4 with Lads (9/2 plus daily boost)

I'm on Jota at the same price but sticking to one bet for this thread. Ronnie the potential fly in the ointment but, at the prices, I think his "wing men" are the value.

[harry_rag]

Bet 6 is Lapadula for Peru at 14/1 with Sky Bet

One of the best value players (in the goalscorer markets generally) I've ever seen OR the spreads have got his chances badly wrong.

[harry_rag]

Bet 7 is Rashford at 9/2 with 365 (remembered to tick each way this time)!

[harry_rag]

Bet 8 is Lukaku at 13/5 with 365

Short for me (anything below 3/1 will be rare) but enough juice in the place terms for a play here.

[harry_rag]

An abundance of juice! I should've looked at the multi goal prices!

Off the mark at last anyway.

[alexcaruso808]

57 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 8 is Lukaku at 13/5 with 365

Short for me (anything below 3/1 will be rare) but enough juice in the place terms for a play here.

good choice Harry, he's really hammering them in.

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, alexcaruso808 said:

good choice Harry, he's really hammering them in.

You too (and first, to be fair).

[harry_rag]

Bet 9 is Joselu for Spain at 10/3 with 365

Very hard to know who they go with up front but it's void if he doesn't start. Numbers (spreads and fixed odds) very similar to the last game so he's an easy pick again.

[harry_rag]

Just noticed that Lukaku and Joselu (who was void as didn’t start) both only paid a quarter odds for the place, never noticed that before. Maybe something where a high number of goals are expected. Have to keep an eye out for that.

[harry_rag]

Lukaku gets the ball rolling in terms of scoring first. The bet on him and the voided one on Joselu only paid 1/4 the odds for the e/w "place" and Rashford was only 1/5 the odds. I'd guess the previous bet on Joselu might have only been 1/4 as well. Went back a bit and didn't see any other instances where it wasn't 1/3 but will keep any eye out for that from now on.

[harry_rag]

Bet 9 is Watkins at 7/2 with 365

Does pay a third the odds for the "place" and feels just worth a bet at the price.

[harry_rag]

Bet 10 is Weghorst at 15/4 with 365

Only a 5th of the odds for the "place" but worth it given the opponents.

[harry_rag]

Returns after 10 bets with an error in the anytime calculation corrected. Anytime and each way returns assume a third of the odds which wouldn't always have been the case. Not a great start but a lot of Internationals in there. Let's see how it develops as we return to the normality of domestic action.

[harry_rag]

Bet 11 is Kane at 5/2 with Hills (I've taken 9/4 for the place terms but will record at the best available first price).

[harry_rag]

Bet 12 is Mbappe at 3.9 on BF (wasn't tempted by the e/w terms at a shorter price).

[harry_rag]

Oh well, Kane in at least though I didn’t quite get the decision right on which one to back each way and which one “on the nose”.

[harry_rag]

Bet 13 McGuire (Orlando City) at 13/2 with 365

Based on the pre line up prices he’ll be a system bet at 2/1 anytime so it’s fairly obvious to play the first e/w price when the place pays slightly better than the 2/1. Goes up against @alexcaruso808 ‘s inaugural pick of Hernandez but he looks a bit short tonight by comparison.

[alexcaruso808]

good luck Harry👍

Edited November 25, 2023 by alexcaruso808

[harry_rag]

Bet 14 is Son at 11/2 with 365

Villa and Watkins both flattered (possibly) by being co-favourites with Spurs and Son in their respective markets.

13/8 Son close to being a system bet; place terms are better so seems a reasonable first scorer shout at the price.

[harry_rag]

Not exactly off to a flier. Son had a goal chalked off ("incredibly" according to Flashscore) for offside.

[harry_rag]

Bet 15 is Benrahma at 7/1 with Sky Bet

He's an "A" system bet at 9/4 and the place terms are slightly better than that at a third of the odds.