FA Cup Replay Predictions > 14th & 15th November

[harry_rag]

9 replays in the FA Cup this week. Many years ago I had a theory about the draw being value in such games but I don't think it ever really proved itself. Let us know in here if you have any bets on these games.

[Gary66]

Vale go to burton without there loan England under 20 players olly arblaster and Alfie Devine and wales under 21 josh Thomas all on international duty arblaster and Devine are both class players and will no doubt be missed as they make vales midfield tick 

[Darran]

Horsham v Barnsley and Cray Valley Paper Mills V Charlton

I am grouping the two live FA Cup replays together as basically they are pretty similar. It was a hell of a performance from Horsham to get a 3-3 draw at Barnsley, but it was a bit of a freak result where they pretty much converted every chance that came their way and Barnsley created plenty that they didn't score. I can't see the same happening on Tuesday and I will take the League 1 side to cover the -2 handicap. Charlton were awful in the first game against their local opponents. After taking an early lead I thought they would kick on and win easy which they didn't. It was clear making 11 changes didn't work and even though some of the big guns came on in the 2^nd half I thought Cray were fairly comfortable and fully deserved the replay. From the 66^th minute until the end Charlton had just two shots in the 87^th and 88^th minute. I can't see them making so many changes again and I think they will look to get the job done as quickly as possible and then you can take the likes of May off. A League 1 side should be beating a Step 4 side easily given the gulf in class and hopefully at the 2^nd time of asking Charlton can show that and overcome the -2 handicap.

 

Prices from around 4pm Monday

Barnsley -2 1 pt @ 15/8 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4) 

Charlton -2 1pt @ 7/4 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (Betfair and Paddys are huge at 11/5 I'd be tempted to have 2pts at those odds if you can get that much on and take up to 11/8)

[harry_rag]

McAtee for Barnsley. 1st e/w at 6/1 with 365 (pays 2/1 for the "place"). 8/5 anytime an acceptable price if you want more on the anytime than the first element.

Kane possible penalty taker, 5/2 feels fair at best but first at 9/1 or 10/1 not bad for a small bet. (Unfortunately no option to back each way to get 3s or better.)

[harry_rag]

Collins for Derby, similar to McAtee but better value. 15/4 1st e/w and evens anytime. 9/2 the brace probably a bit bigger than it should be but I'll settle for a small bet on the hat trick at 20/1. Very rare for a player whose goal minutes are 50 to buy to be anywhere near an even money shot, Obviously it could be that SX have overrated him but his season stats are good enough to support the bet.

[Darran]

Hopefully Charlton can be as professional as Barnsley were tonight.

[harry_rag]

Had a look at Charlton from a goalscorer perspective earlier and alighted on Blackett-Taylor being the most interestingly priced. 15/2 1st e/w. 21/10 anytime and 14/1 for a brace all taken. Would've been happier had May not been in the starting 11 (easily the most likely scorer on this season's stats) but odds on quotes are short enough to rule out an anytime bet. 3/1 1st is just about in the funzone and have used up a free bet on that. (Probably paving the way for Leaburn to score all the goals!)

[Darran]

Fair play to Cray but Charlton did it easily in the end as I suspected they would. May different class and should be playing at a higher level.