The Breeders Cup- Santa Anita Friday & Saturday.

[Zilzalian]

First thing to say here is don't fall for the draw bias and the scaremongers if you fancy a horse back it i was going to go back  8 breeders cups run at Santa Anita but realised after 4 that it wouldn't produce much difference the table below shows the last 4 Breeders Cup running's at said track. As can be seen the horses at both Turf and Dirt tracks will win from any draw if they are good enough.  sample size is not huge but it is better than going in blind, outside traps are a bit deceptive due to the imbalance of runners (every race has at least 8-10 runners). Big Caution note here, the Brits and Europeans don't do very well at Santa Anita, half a dozen winners from around 70 races from the last 4  Breeders Cups here tells the story.

Tomorrow I will post my idea of a few winners, another caution- i have done well in past BC's but blew out last year with just 1 winner and 1 FC.

[Sporting Sam]

Excellent stats and a real eye opener for those playing the patriotic punt in pounds and Euro’s. The Irish horses always seemed to find that little bit extra out here and I wonder what percentage of that tiny number of winners go to them? The playing field was levelled by lassix previously.  other than home track knowledge I’d fancy superior medication continues to strongly favour the American runners, but I don’t think Japan are very far behind on that score. We can eat horses of course and still do  (knowingly or otherwise) but I fancy we’d be bulked up immensely if some of these were dished up in an Egon Ronay  house in the future.

[LEE-GRAYS]

Keep an 👁️ on the 🇯🇵 

[Zilzalian]

Here is what i am backing, despite the Europeans poor record at Santa Anita i am a sucker for our runners so have put the best speed figures in for the 2yo (mainly Friday). I think Valiant force is well over priced at 18/1 last time it ran on this sort of ground it won at Ascot (150/1) producing a speed figure 1 point shy of Big Evs best Speed figure can smell a bit of value in this race so will bob a few rfc in on the brits. I am not going to back many singles and certainly not to any sort of decent money so will mess about with RFC and lucky 15's £50 quid bank over the two days.

Friday

630 Mo Fox Givin                                             LOST

740 Elm Drive                                                   LOST

900 Valiant Force/Tiger Belle                         2ND/UP

940 Tamara (only if 1/1 or better)                 LOST

1020 Porta Fortuna/Carlas Way                    2ND/UP

1100 no bet

1140 River Tiber at a pinch                             NR

Saturday

510 Salesman (good form in France when trained by Fabre a shrewd switch to being trained in the US)                                    WON 9/2 

550 Silver knot (tentative)                                                                                                                                                                              2ND

630 no bet

710 Fev Rover is a nice price with (Inspiral up in trip is an issue for me) rfc with the uk runners excluding Inspiral. Fair play i couldn't see Inspiral winning but thats racing, holding hands up here, great riding from Dettori.

750 Kirstenbosch

830 Mawj has been here in USA and had a race so no worry about long layoff but i think Astronomer EW (good Price) and Kelina has a chance.

910 no bet

950 very hard race to call so Baladeer ew at about 50/1 and Onesto is worth a sheckel or two

1040 Not the best Classic, Ushba Tesoro (Japan) looks special and a little ew on Dreamlike at 33/1

1125 Good race this Caravel won last year, will have a nibble at Jasper Krone (Japan) ew

1159 No bet Good Luck to one and All

Edited November 4, 2023 by Zilzalian
update

[calva decoy]

Love US Racing but much prefer Eastern to the Western of Santa Anita & Del Mar both like running on tarmac .

Fancy Yanks to smash it up on Day 1 with loads of 2 year old races so I'll keep my powder dry & it's all work / sleep , work / sleep atm so I'll doubt I'll be awake after 10 . 

Good luck to all playing , SHE FEELS PRETTY eway 13/2 in the 10.20 my only fancy . 3rd 7/2 , was well backed , but ran 4 wide for a while so ran out of steam .

Edited November 4, 2023 by calva decoy

[Sporting Sam]

Santa anita

1940

Freedom flyer

win

Benedict Canyon

Each way 

detorri booked and no suprise if he can place here for a good draw

[Sporting Sam]

Big Evs

is a small win bet out of patriotic loyalty

but 

CRIMSOM ADVOCATE

win

is a crazy price and must be backed here.

ASSEAN

Each way 

is the draw data horse and gets the free energy.

Donnacha O’Brien is the trainer and he’s no mug on the international scene and he’s booked Tyler gaffiolone a decent jockey with breeders cup wins under his belt two last year 

[Zilzalian]

Tamara 7/4 super boost bet365 avit

[Sporting Sam]

2140

 

Tamara

win

won over shorter twice and latest a grade 1 by over seven lengths over seven furlongs so steps up again and at this level looks very progressive clear favourite. The draw is vital however and will have to overcome significant hurdles to get a good position here from the middle of the park. But looks good enough if they go too quickly but stepping up in class

ohmaha girl

each way

the AMO runner here and groups runners have been catapulted onto the scene no suprise to see further remarkable improvement here on a big stage, but on all known form out of his depth here. Got the distance however but would need a career best to figure here, but not of the question.

 

[Sporting Sam]

Porta fortuna

win

hard to justify meavhvway

 

[calva decoy]

Only 2 bets for me tonight , horses need to be 2nd off the rail here to maximise winning potential otherwise they're 4 or 5 wide & up against it .

5.10 - SISKANY 

5.50 - ALMENDARES 

6.30 - CODY'S WISH 

7.10 - WARM HEART 

7.50 - GOODNIGHT OLIVE 

8.30 - MAWJ 

9.10 - RANDOMIZED 7/1 eway Sky ( 4 places ) 

9.50 - MOSTAHDAF 

10.40 - USHBA TESORO 

11.25 - CARAVEL 6/1 eway Bet365 ( 4 places )

12.00 - ELITE POWER .

Good luck to all having a punt .

[White Feather]

[Zilzalian]

Siskany the perfect example of a false fav. How many boxes did that tick? Not many for a 4/6 fav

[Brahmin]

Off to a great start at Breeders this evening..........Silver Knott @ 3/1 and  Seal Team 6/1 EW   WON 

 Zozos  9/2            Fev Rover 16/1 EW        4 places

 Inspiral 9/4    WON         

 Goodnight Olive  5/4  WON 

  Mawj  4/1  ( Adeles nap from ITV )        Songline  7/2                  Shirls Speight  33/1 EW             Lucky Score  80/1 EW              4 places 

 Idiomatic  2/1    WON                Randomized  7/1 EW     2nd

 Auguste Rodin  9/4   WON   ( our main bet 👍 )               Mostahdaf  11/4 

 

        5 WINS  🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 and 1 place soooo we very happy.......sooo with this afternoons wins/ profit we had great day 🐎 💷 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Brahmin

[Sporting Sam]

9:50

goodnight olive

yuguri

win

Meikei Yell

each way

[Sporting Sam]

2030

I make a compelling case for
Casa Creed
Each way
Has raced in this three times without success and looks highly laid out here.
The yard have identical form for running the same horse multiple times without success and then in 2016 bullseye 🎯 following a good draw. Casanova creed is blest with a stellar berth in stall 3 ( check out group class races the world over and you’ll find stall three prominent in the results) and many of the more favoured yards would kill for this berth. No suprise with badly drawn boys try too hard and set this up because of the draw the physics would then do the rest….

[Zilzalian]

Buick is probably the best jockey in the world he delivers time and time again i backed Mawj but Jesus h christ its not often the jockey wins races no matter what people say horses do but Buick does it too often for it to be fluke. His timing must be bang on the nose.

[yossa6133]

Bet 365 have 5 places e/w for Lunar Impact in the lucky last 7/1. Given there are only 12 runners and you can probably rule a few out, it gives a fair margin or error for Oisin Murphy.

[Sporting Sam]

2110
I’m happy to use the breeders cup here and stick my neck out and identify two horses who may run well one of them because of free energy from two distinct sources.
Idiomatic and clairiere have similar chances but the massive amounts of free energy heading to the stall of idiomatic swings it in her favour.
Idiomatic
Win
Clairiere
Each way
Clairiere has been touched off in this race twice losing by a nose. chance remains but will elude again unless bull is grabbed by the horns here and it is not out of the question at all.

[Sporting Sam]

No wonder Aidan O’Brien was happy to do the popes bidding last night as it gave his runners a huge advantage.

same story tonight with the absence of both runners either side.

win

Auguste Rodin

win

 

should win easily 

for exactly the same reasons stable mste

BROOME

each way

has an outstanding chance if not sacrificing advantage by pacesetting here.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

A really good night. 
Good night Olive and yurigil

first ( winner) and second at 25/1

idiomatic 

winner

Auguste rodin

winner

did better than that but those are the ones I posted. Every single race was draw dependant. Physics is universal, it works the world over. The humility of the home jockeys is refreshing. 
Britain and Ireland had a fabulous event. The Americans will say “it never rains in Southern California“ and move on but it felt like the Ryder cup.

Quiting while ahead as  early start in the morning, but will post an early sha tin selection before going out. 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[calva decoy]

23 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Only 2 bets for me tonight , horses need to be 2nd off the rail here to maximise winning potential otherwise they're 4 or 5 wide & up against it .

5.10 - SISKANY 

5.50 - ALMENDARES 

6.30 - CODY'S WISH 

7.10 - WARM HEART 

7.50 - GOODNIGHT OLIVE 

8.30 - MAWJ 

9.10 - RANDOMIZED 7/1 eway Sky ( 4 places ) 

9.50 - MOSTAHDAF 

10.40 - USHBA TESORO 

11.25 - CARAVEL 6/1 eway Bet365 ( 4 places )

12.00 - ELITE POWER .

Good luck to all having a punt .

Half enjoyable watch over the 2 days even if like most top grade US Racing the favourite wins which was very apparent here .

Special mention for BIG EVS on Friday & the story surrounding CODY'S WISH .

Ride of the meeting albeit I can't stand the bloke was Ryan ' Ice Man ' Moore's on AUGUSTE RODIN , I hope O.MURPHY was taking note after the pig's ear of a ride on MAWJ , ( ride to the line mate , yeah ) .

Not sure where next year's B.Cup is at , hope not Eastern America , like Chester on Tarmac , it'd never happen but KENTUCKY DOWNS the best track in US would be great , undulations & long run in with a dog leg .

[Zilzalian]

36 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Half enjoyable watch over the 2 days even if like most top grade US Racing the favourite wins which was very apparent here .

Special mention for BIG EVS on Friday & the story surrounding CODY'S WISH .

Ride of the meeting albeit I can't stand the bloke was Ryan ' Ice Man ' Moore's on AUGUSTE RODIN , I hope O.MURPHY was taking note after the pig's ear of a ride on MAWJ , ( ride to the line mate , yeah ) .

Not sure where next year's B.Cup is at , hope not Eastern America , like Chester on Tarmac , it'd never happen but KENTUCKY DOWNS the best track in US would be great , undulations & long run in with a dog leg .

I beg to Differ a tad Calva, i think Buick on master of the seas was outstanding whereas Moore got lucky (but still rode it well) to a large degree. 100% agree about Murphy on Mawj shocking for a supposed top class jockey which he isn't.

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I beg to Differ a tad Calva, i think Buick on master of the seas was outstanding whereas Moore got lucky (but still rode it well) to a large degree. 100% agree about Murphy on Mawj shocking for a supposed top class jockey which he isn't.

Hmm , it's all about opinions .

I thought Moore had his pace & clock perfect as well as being in the perfect position just off the rail whereas imo , the best Godolphin horse finished 2nd due to far better jockey ship re Buick .

Mention to another homeboy in Dettori who gave Inspiral a cracking ride .

[Trotter]

On 11/5/2023 at 9:38 AM, calva decoy said:

Special mention for BIG EVS on Friday & the story surrounding CODY'S WISH .

Sad postscript though as the lad in the wheelchair with the connections and after whom the horse was named died on Monday aged 17

RIP Cody Dorman