Racing chat Sunday 10th September

[Sporting Sam]

The new turf season is already underway this morning at  Sha tin Hong Kong.

6:25

GREENWICH

WIN

( well held in second place)

Could prove to be one of the new stars this season.

ended the summer with a win.

Barrier trial recently was impressive.

With Zac Purtin booked a good run despite stall 6 is a good possibility.

Vanquisher

(unplaced)

Each way

has good potential too

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Sha tin

6:55

Lucky Swenesse

Win

an unusual situation where this horses 131 rating forces the entire field to race from out of the handicap. Twenty plus pounds to be precise.

the rest are all rated 111 and the country’s star racehorse is probably best raced against under such auspices today in the hope that he’s caught cold.

That is unlikely and he should be two lengths clear at the end and at the very least a clear cut winner. That is some lumpy weight to haul but he’s done it comfortably before  as the ultimate group horse in a handicap.

*Notable that the likes of sky bet don’t have the balls to put up winning distance bets but a length at evens would be the call here.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[calva decoy]

1.50 Curragh - DANDYVILLE 11/1 eway bet365 ( 6 ) missed the 16's , unfortunately 12th 👎

1.50 Curragh - JON RIGGENS 16/1 eway bet365 ( 6 ) 7th 👎

2.15 York - TAJAWAL 8/1 eway bet365 ( S.Crisford 3/5 at course this season ) non runner 

2.55 Curragh - BRADSELL 11/4 Paddy Power , ( Highfield Princess looks to defend her crown but no horse has won this race back to back since Benbaun won 3 in a row from 2005-7 . 👎 16/1 shot won .

No bets just a watching brief in France for Group races .

1223- BERNEUIL 

133- IRESINE 2nd 

250- PENSEE DU JOUR 

325- FEED THE FLAME 2nd 

400- BREIZH SKY .

there's a reason why Arc trials day are a watching brief with all 5 favourites in above races turned over & with the usual going changes in France , 8am very soft , 1pm , soft , 2.15pm good to soft , it'll be good to firm before the last , probably .

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by calva decoy

[kensland]

Couple of Singles. 

1.50. Curr. Mr Wagyu      9/1

stk 5.00   rtn 50.00.

3.50 York. Juan Les Pin   15/2

stk 5.00     rtn 47.50.

----------------

Double. 

York. 

2.15. Bajan Bandit       5/1

4.25. Kington                 9/2

Singles & double 

stk. 6.00    89.00.

Good luck all. 

Edited September 10, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Sha tin

10:00

Golden link

each way

without a win in two years but a confirmed mudlark whose last win was on wet going on dirt real chance here.

June Planet

win

Figures

434453223

maiden, but knocking on the door with some very good placed efforts last season.

Has to prove copes with wet going.

Again first season run and difficult to assess fitness the key here…… will know more after today’s run.

 

[Sporting Sam]

Sha tin 1035

Beauty crescent

each way

Andrea Atzeni 

enjoying his first meeting here.

Has stall 1 over six furlongs although both wins for Ger Lyons last year were on good going. Won a listed race the ballyshane at fairy house last September. Those behind stepped up to group 1 and group 3 subsequently.

Should have had time after debut run here to come in and no suprise to see improvement at this class three level

[Sporting Sam]

Sunday z listers today

for the last five weeks or so a z horse has won.

I pinpointed Zagrey who landed group one glory last week.

Just three candidates today and will select one or more of them later.

ZHORSEODDS/POSRACE

• Ziggy's Condor  
  1:40 YOR  
  15/8
• Zoe Alyssa  
  4:43 FON  
  13/2
• Zoran  
  4:10 FON  
  2/1

     Fontwell 2:10

zoran

win

gets the vote. 
Flopped at Worcester on a hat trick and now steps up in trip.

rated a long way ahead of all of these but carries nearly two stone more than the bottom weight Aud sod.

Auld sod 

win

has not won for an age but runs here on an appealing mark and if the physics kicks in today could get a massive kickback from the top weight on the traverse. Age says no but physics says maybe…

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[black rabbit]

Tudor City                                                           5 45 Cra/        1/40th of  a pt ew  40/1

Mr Wagu                                                             1 50 Cra/        1/40th of a pt ew   14/1

Ladies Church                                                    2 55 Cra/        1/40th of a pt ew   33/1

Thunder Moor                                                   4 55 Yrk/         1/40th of a pt ew   16/1

Didn'thavemuchtodo                                       5 45 Cra/         1/40th of a pt ew   28/1

Prisoner's Dilemmma                                      1 50 Cra/         1/40th of a pt ew   40/1

Perdika                                                               4 25 Yrk           1/40th of a pt ew   18/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L  + 170.90 pts

Edited September 10, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[Sporting Sam]

super run from Andrea and beauty crescent there at a huge price. Took the scenic route and plenty more to come from both jockey and horse.
 

Sha Tin
1110
Super sunny sing
Win
Last seen in the Hong Kong derby when eighth this drop back to a sharp seven holds no fears for this runner from stall 1. Rattled off a four timer in lead up to derby including over this trip.
May need this run but certainly the class horse here.

will hopefully be joining black rabbit at the dog and duck if not after this race later on after the bold lad is run in Ireland…….

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[richard-westwood]

150 curr 

Albasheer   9.0 9.2 

Fresh   8.9  8.6 

Summerghand  8.8 

Mr wagyu    8.6 

Very very competitive sprint but these 4 set very high standards so I'll be surprised if 1 doesn't win ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2  ...and forecasts all 4 and 20p tricasts 

Edited September 10, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Sporting Sam]

Strong physics indicators for the British raiders 

The bold lad, the curragh 

Summerghand

Each way

Albasheer

win

master Matt

each way

combination forecast

[richard-westwood]

545 curr 

Coeur dor  8.9 13.0

Killybegs warrior  8.8  22.0 

Kingswood   8.6 13.5 

5pt wins top 3 ....forecasts all 3 😁 

Edited September 10, 2023 by richard-westwood

[azzybear]

big gossey 1.50 ew 

[azzybear]

the coffee pot 1.40 

[Sporting Sam]

 

York 1:40

ziggys condor

win
A cursory check of the available draw data works out at stall 8 given there’s only seven runners the top weight drawn in stall seven has a decent chance and becomes hopefully the first z horse to go in today.

Northern specialist 

Richard Fahey is in good form and this runner has been here already and won on debut before a beaten favourite last time out. Has to give the weight away all round.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

The curragh 

2:25

 

Trevaunance

each way 

[Sporting Sam]

Fontwell 2:33

in running

TWO PAST EIGHT

win

[Sporting Sam]

York 2:45

YORKINDNESS

win

looks a solid choice of these and holds strong claims again via the physics.

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

the curragh 2:55

a late season race with some heavily raced sorts competing. art power may go well under Oisin but this is a group one and although unbeaten here there’s scope for something else today. But I cannot understand why the reliable David Alan isn’t at large here…
 

Bradsell

win

Equality

win

Aeosops fable 

each way

looks wide open with top horses a bit vulnerable 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Zilzalian]

be interesting to see what happens in the 2yo races at the curragh lots of hype/all season ass kissing noise about City of Troy so we shall learn a bit more today but my figures suggest 

400 bucanero fuerte

and

325 porta fortuna

[Sporting Sam]

Fontwell 3:03

origandi

win

dropped 12 pounds since 132 win last September and spot on here under Sam twiston Davies

[Sporting Sam]

The curragh 

3:25

porta fortuna

each way

ylang ylang

win

YLANG YLANG  looks the best of these on potential and collaborative form. Steps up in class with form already franked by a reoppsing runner who has won at group 2 level on strict interpretation ylang ylang will lose to that rival or kick on here .

Frankies roadshow hit the buffers at listowel when the course told him to sling his hook he attemptoto get the gravy train back on track here.

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

A lot of selections  this afternoon but not without reason……

 

york 3:50

perdika

esch way

is one of two runners for the baby faced assassin and the young Newmarket trainer has placed his horses well. The traveller perdika is a long time outside of the winners enclosure but has shown flashes abroad regularly and may find this level to suit.

 

[Sporting Sam]

The curragh 4:35

Kyprios

win

won last year and with Emily Dickinson withdrawn has a huge advantage over the field. If anything has improved since last year and runs off three pounds higher rating. Destroyed the field at longchamp  by 20 lengths and getting softening ground here could be winner  4001 for Aidan O’Brien here. Odds on and although it’s a sin, don’t try to improve the odds with the winning distance bet.

against my own advice

Kyprios to win by 2.0 lengths or more

@ 11/8

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

York 4:55

Honour your dreams

each way

just denied last time out and draw data has this one in the mix

northcliffe

win

this is a physics based selection 

top weight carrying seven pound impost for win could benefit Tim easterby runner here…..

Edited September 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Tedthewolf]

3pts e/w 5.45 Curragh GENUINE ARTICLE  10/1 big 6Places = 6pts Invested

Phew so glad i took the 6 places!

one to keep an eye on imho.

9pts Returned

Edited September 10, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[calva decoy]

Maybe gone a little under the radar re all the O'Brien hype but Karl Burke saddled a Group 1 & Group 2 winner over the weekend in Ireland & €360k winners prize money to boot 👏

[Brahmin]

😂 @calva decoyco

Won bit more than me then 💷 today with my 2 EW places in Ireland.....50/1 ew Ornellaia & 20/1 ew Killybegs warrior earlier, both K Stott rides 👍....still had fab 3 days birthday weekend so happy lady 😎🥂

[BBBC]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

be interesting to see what happens in the 2yo races at the curragh lots of hype/all season ass kissing noise about City of Troy so we shall learn a bit more today but my figures suggest 

400 bucanero fuerte

and

325 porta fortuna

@Zilzalian looking at the former - not a great performance but as a result the price for 2000 guineas has really drifted. Any thoughts?

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, BBBC said:

@Zilzalian looking at the former - not a great performance but as a result the price for 2000 guineas has really drifted. Any thoughts?

Well at the moment my view on the 2yo's in general is very negative and i will make re-assessments after November but i can't remember a poorer lot to be honest and the rates of the horses running in pattern racing has dropped significantly even in France nothing stands out, you have to put aside the arse licking attached to the O'Brien horses and assess them as you would any other Longfellow beat 3 horses yesterday in a time slower than fallen angel's race so make of that what you will, the drooling over O'Briens horse was far and above that of the Burke horse. One of the problems these days is that the "O'Briens" have got so many horses no wonder he wins more group races than anyone else. In my opinion if you can run 3 horses in every G1 and other trainers are scared off by the BS you don't need to be a genius to reach a 1000 winners. The list of horses that were supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread and turned out to be buns is very long but they never talk about those. Fabre and Appleby are better trainers than O'Brien but you wouldn't know it listening to the arse lickers.

On a different note the Arc is intriguing given 3 of the last 4 winners were German bred. and given the fact that in past years the arc winner either started fav for the Prix Neil or won it Fantastic Moon beat some good horses yesterday at 16/1 looks a decent bet especially if the ground turns soft-heavy which might find Ace Impact out.