US Open 2023

[MJT]

Sabalenka -4.5 Games vs Zheng @ 2.0 Pinnacle (NAP)
Will side with Sabalenka once again today. She has been brilliant all tournament, hitting the ball so well & most importantly serving well. Zheng has done very well but this is a big step up from opponents she has faced so far. Jabeur has not played well all tournament. Other than that she has beaten 2 clay courters (struggled massively to beat Bronzetti in 3 sets) & a declining erratic Kanepi in 3. Over this summer she did push Swiatek to 3 sets but she has also not been at her best in recent months. Interestingly Zheng has lost to Samsonova & Keys since August & these two are probably the closest likeness to Sabalenka in terms of game style with the power & good serve. The biggest issue for Zheng in this match is likely to be her 2nd serves. If she continues to have a 1st serve % close to 40% then this will allow Sabalenka & her heavy hitting to get on top of the rallies early. When she lost to Keys she had just 38% 1st serves & against Samsonova 53% but winning only 26% of 2nd serves. Unless Zheng can serve much closer or above 60% I think she will massively struggle in this as her 2nd serves will just be sitting up for Sabalenka. She also lost both of those matches I have mentioned in straight sets & by 7 games so I think Sabalenka can repeat that again. Another factor in this one could be nerves. Sabalenka is a grand slam champion along with 5 SF. Zheng is in new territory having never made it this far in a grand slam so she is likely to be feeling it at the start. If Sabalenka can get on top early it could be one way traffic.

Keys to beat Vondrousova @ 1.82 Pinnacle
Another player who has been playing incredibly well is Madison Keys & for me this match is completely on her racquet. She has been serving so well, holding close to 95% & only being broken on 2 occasions in her first 4 matches. However, Vondrousova will be the best returner she has faced so far. The biggest concern for Vondrousova is not only trying to break Keys but how will her injured elbow hold up? She wasn't 100% in her previous match & was seen with ice on her elbow afterwards in tears before pulling out of her doubles match. This is her left serving arm so far from ideal. If she is not able to serve at a high level this will allow Keys plenty of chances & then breaking back is going to be an issue. I try to avoid bookies that don't void retirements but in this case I will use one that only voids if the 1st set is not complete. If Vondrousova is not right I sense she will give it a go & then if she loses the 1st set easily may then retire to save herself from further injury. If she has recovered then this match will be close but I would still give Keys the edge given her ability to find cheap points on her serve.

Will post my plays for the 2 men's matches shortly.
 

[MJT]

Medvedev -3.5 Games vs Rublev @ 1.85 Pinnacle (NB)
Expecting Medvedev to come out on top against his good friend again today. He leads the head to head 6-2 which includes two 3-0 set wins in grand slams. Rublev is currently 0-8 in grand slam QFs. The excellent defence of Medvedev is likely to be too good for Rublev. He also doesn't have the variety in his game & will find it difficult to break down Medvedev from the baseline, especially in the conditions. This will likely frustrate Rublev & lead to errors especially off his forehand which has 73 unforced errors in the opening 4 matches. With the hot weather again today I like the chances of the -3.5 games. Even if it went to 5 there is a chance this line hits if Medvedev can win an easier set like he did in his previous round. Over a best of 5 you have to favour the defence & overall better game of Medvedev.

[sterziyskii]

Great calls on Sabalenka and Medvedev, went with these two from the early ones. 

I'll go with Keys at 1.75 and I'm wondering if I should go for -1.5 sets for Alcaraz at 1.50 or for over 36.5 games. Which one of these looks better to you guys? I think that after the 5 hours battle with Sinner, Alcaraz will be too fast and won't be able to catch up so I personally think -1.5 sets looks better for me.

[Torque]

58 minutes ago, sterziyskii said:

Great calls on Sabalenka and Medvedev, went with these two from the early ones. 

I'll go with Keys at 1.75 and I'm wondering if I should go for -1.5 sets for Alcaraz at 1.50 or for over 36.5 games. Which one of these looks better to you guys? I think that after the 5 hours battle with Sinner, Alcaraz will be too fast and won't be able to catch up so I personally think -1.5 sets looks better for me.

Keys Vondrousova looks trappy to me. Keys blows hot and cold at the best of times and it's up for question how injured Vondrousova is. I'd leave it until the match has started if it was me and see how they both look.

[sterziyskii]

I'll risk it with Keys to win a set at 1.37, Alcaraz -1.5 at 1.50 and Zeppieri (Challanger in Cassis, France). Sorry for mentioning a challanger match again but I believe it's easily a trusty one. 2.75 for these 3 matches and I think they are good ones

[Torque]

1 hour ago, sterziyskii said:

I'll risk it with Keys to win a set at 1.37, Alcaraz -1.5 at 1.50 and Zeppieri (Challanger in Cassis, France). Sorry for mentioning a challanger match again but I believe it's easily a trusty one. 2.75 for these 3 matches and I think they are good ones

You're braver than me to call any Challenger match trusty. Best of luck with it.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Torque

[MJT]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

Keys Vondrousova looks trappy to me. Keys blows hot and cold at the best of times and it's up for question how injured Vondrousova is. I'd leave it until the match has started if it was me and see how they both look.

Yeah I fully agree that Keys can blow hot and cold. Just think she has been excellent so far & I would favour her even without the injury concerns based on how both players have played to this point. Will likely be close if Vondrousova is fully healthy but I have my doubts she will be fully recovered so would rather risk the play before the match starts. If Keys starts well and gets an early lead the chance to back her a decent odds will have gone.  

[Simeon Borisof]

Ridiculous odds on Medvedev to beat Alcaraz @ 3.60. Alcaraz beat Zverev mainly because Zverev didn't play all and was tired from the epuc clach with Sinner yesterday and he even took a medical timeout after the 2nd set. Medvedev was fairly solid against Rublev and was never in danger to lose a set or the match. I can see this one being a close battle, maybe a five setter with many long rallies and Medvedev triumphing at the end. The odds are  definetely wrong to me and the values lies with Medvedev @ 3.60 😏

[MJT]

5 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:

Ridiculous odds on Medvedev to beat Alcaraz @ 3.60. Alcaraz beat Zverev mainly because Zverev didn't play all and was tired from the epuc clach with Sinner yesterday and he even took a medical timeout after the 2nd set. Medvedev was fairly solid against Rublev and was never in danger to lose a set or the match. I can see this one being a close battle, maybe a five setter with many long rallies and Medvedev triumphing at the end. The odds are  definetely wrong to me and the values lies with Medvedev @ 3.60 😏

I think the odds are mainly based on the 2 matches this year which were very comfortable. Medvedev tried the exact same tactics in both, standing miles behind the baseline allowing Alcaraz to hit his out wide serve and then either come to the net or play a drop shot as he's so far back. I thought after the first match in Indian Wells that Medvedev would try something different at Wimbledon but he stuck with the same plan & hoped for a different outcome. I find it difficult to back Medvedev based on this because if he does the same again then Alcaraz will likely cruise to another win. Hoping for a good match & fingers crossed Medvedev brings a different approach.

Edited September 7, 2023 by MJT

[sterziyskii]

Great 2 days of betting, hope the streak continues. 

For today I'll go with this double

Gauff at 1.50 x Gaston at 1.30 = 1.95-2.00 odds

Gauff might be a close match and I like Muchova's game a lot but in the last month, Gauff is one of the best players on the tour and with the home advantage and her defense I think she will come through.

Gaston seems like a nice bet for me. He is in form, winning 2 challangers in the last 2 months on clay and he is the clear favourite here. Sorry for giving a challanger match again but I don't see any other topic to post this and I think it's a nice match 😁

[CzechPunter]

I don't see any value in today's matches. Muchova was pretty suspect at the start of the tournament, but she's improved since then, and she has variety that could put Gauff off. Sabalenka should enjoy a good match-up against Keys, but the odds are set the right way for that as well, this will be all about big hitting, and she can hit bigger than Keys. 

[Torque]

2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

Great 2 days of betting, hope the streak continues. 

For today I'll go with this double

Gauff at 1.50 x Gaston at 1.30 = 1.95-2.00 odds

Gauff might be a close match and I like Muchova's game a lot but in the last month, Gauff is one of the best players on the tour and with the home advantage and her defense I think she will come through.

Gaston seems like a nice bet for me. He is in form, winning 2 challangers in the last 2 months on clay and he is the clear favourite here. Sorry for giving a challanger match again but I don't see any other topic to post this and I think it's a nice match 😁

Once again you're braver than me to back Gaston after some of his antics. Good luck.

[sterziyskii]

36 minutes ago, Torque said:

Once again you're braver than me to back Gaston after some of his antics. Good luck.

I'm on a streak of combining the US Open with some challanger matches hahaha. Zeppieri and Ramos went in today and I really think Gaston won't have a problem in this one even tho he is really not one to be trusted 😁

I went for Sabalenka, Gauff and Gaston. 

[amity]

I appreciate that Gauff blew Ostapenko away in her last match but truth be told the Latvian simply imploded as she does from time to time, hence I am not all in just yet on Gauff, also as she needed three sets to defeat her opponents in every match but the last one. Admittedly her confidence is high and the crowd are giving her great support but I think Muchova is playing at least as well as the American right now, but let's see how it goes. Good luck to you all regardless! 😎👍

[sterziyskii]

26 minutes ago, amity said:

I appreciate that Gauff blew Ostapenko away in her last match but truth be told the Latvian simply imploded as she does from time to time, hence I am not all in just yet on Gauff, also as she needed three sets to defeat her opponents in every match but the last one. Admittedly her confidence is high and the crowd are giving her great support but I think Muchova is playing at least as well as the American right now, but let's see how it goes. Good luck to you all regardless! 😎👍

You are absolutely right. I like Muchova and she has more versatile style of play. It's a really risky match but I'll trust the form of Gauff, her defence and she should be high on confidence rn. Good luck yall

Edited September 7, 2023 by sterziyskii

[MJT]

Like @CzechPunter no plays from me today either. Both matches extremely difficult to call and could really go any way in terms of both the result and total games. Think the lines are set about right.

I would lean on Sabalenka -3.5 games but the odds are tight. She completely outplayed Keys at Wimbledon but both players have been playing so well to this point. In the other I think Gauff will edge it but I just worry about her nerves if the match is close. Muchova didn’t start that well but has been improving in each game. Will just be a watch from me tonight.

[Torque]

57 minutes ago, MJT said:

Like @CzechPunter no plays from me today either. Both matches extremely difficult to call and could really go any way in terms of both the result and total games. Think the lines are set about right.

I would lean on Sabalenka -3.5 games but the odds are tight. She completely outplayed Keys at Wimbledon but both players have been playing so well to this point. In the other I think Gauff will edge it but I just worry about her nerves if the match is close. Muchova didn’t start that well but has been improving in each game. Will just be a watch from me tonight.

I agree. Each of the four players has it within them to go walkabouts and that makes it difficult to assess what might happen. If pushed I'd also side with Sabalenka as Keys was the beneficiary of positive variance that's very hard to sustain against Vondrousova - going something like 9 out of 9 saving break points and taking 3 out of 3. If Vondrousova hadn't been so wasteful converting break points and so bad at saving them then it could have been a very different story in terms of the outcome of the match. Gauff and Muchova feels like it could go either way and on that basis supporting Muchova in some way is probably the way to go but I don't trust her enough to go through with it.

[sterziyskii]

Keys - Sabalenka was such a rollercoaster, lol. Haven't slept just to watch Sabalenka lose the first set 6:0 and win with 2 tiebreaks after that, hehe. Sabalenka had like 15 unforced errors in the first set and thought the match is over.

[Swami]

Medvedev @4+ vs. Alcaraz is really tempting. I have seen both playing in this tournament and there is no doubt in my mind that the Russian is playing better than Carlos. Also, he really loves the courts in New York, is a surface that suits perfectly his tennis, and he still is, along with Nole, the best at shot selection among the top players. On the other hand, from the previous h2h it looks like Daniil’s game doesn’t bother Alcaraz much, his explosiveness breaking Daniil’s spider web quite easily… Anyway, if there is a tournament where Medvedev can beat Alcaraz, or getting close to it, is definitely the USO imo. So the odds have some value here.

[MJT]

Alcaraz -5.5 Games vs Medvedev @ 1.91 Bet365 (NAP)

I believe this is a terrible match up for Medvedev. He managed to get past Rublev in straight sets despite being a break down in all 3 sets. He struggled regularly on serve being broken 5 times. Both matches this season have been won comfortably by Alcaraz. The conditions in New York may suit Medvedev a little more compared to Indian Wells & Wimbledon but if he sticks with the same tactics he used in those matches there will only be one winner.

On both occasions Medvedev opted to sit way, way back on serves. This allowed Alcaraz to continually either come to the net or use drop shots & Medvedev had no answer. I expected to see something different from him when the two met at Wimbledon but if anything he stood even further back! He may well change things up but is he able or want to? Some players have certain styles of play & either can’t or choose not to deviate from this. For me Medvedev simply has to change his style in this. He just can’t beat Alcaraz with those tactics bar a complete off day from Carlos.

Another big issue is the Medvedev 2nd serve. A great indicator for me as to how well someone is playing is how well the 2nd serve is performing. Not only has he been serving an awful lot of double faults his winning % on 2nd serves has been poor. He won just 29% against Rublev & 41% in both of his matches before that. If you compare those stats to Alcaraz who won 57% against Zverev, 60% against Arnaldi & 70% vs Evans. This is further shown by both matches played between them this year. At Wimbledon Medvedev 30% compared to 57% for Alcaraz. Indian Wells was 41% to 58% in Alcaraz’s favour. Medvedev will have to serve incredibly well with a high 1st serve % way above 60% to stand any chance of an upset.

This is the evening match so conditions will not be as hot but still very humid. Medvedev has been complaining about the heat so this will not help his cause. Based on how the 2 matches between these players went this year I simply have to back Alcaraz to reach another US Open final. It would have to either take something very special from Medvedev or a complete off day from Alcaraz, neither of which I see happening.

[CzechPunter]

I don't really have a strong opinion on Medvedev Alcaraz, so can't say much there, but I do think that Shelton Djokovic could be a much better watch than it looks on paper. Shelton is seriously enjoying himself, he also had a good run in the mixed doubles, he's just bubbling with energy. Sure, we have Djokovic on the other side of the net, and he's been good, but not crushingly good imo.

B.Shelton/N.Djokovic - Over 31.5 games at 1.84 with Unibet

[timovk]

Alcaraz - Medvedev @4.30

This is way too much. IMO all Over 3.30 to Medvedev has value! Spaniard is not at his best on hard, fast surfaces. Medvedev is a tough hard-courter and can take this battle! 

Shelton - Djokovic

Shelton is very hot now, but lives almost endast with his huge serve. Nole is one of the real best returners! Tonight the audience will be the biggest enemy for him! Perhaps one close set, but I'll also see one easy set for Novak. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by timovk

[sterziyskii]

@CzechPunter Do we post non US Open matches here or we should create other topic when there are big tournaments. I'm on a streak in the Challanger tour but haven't posted them here.

[MJT]

Djokovic -1.5 Sets x Alcaraz -1.5 Sets – Double @ 1.91 Pinnacle (NB)
In the other semi final Djokovic is the overwhelming favourite and he should win in straight sets but the odds are low. Playing it a little safe here as I do feel both players will most likely win in straight sets but will opt for the -1.5 set handicap just in case either has a drop in level. It may take Djokovic a few games to get a read on the Shelton serve as they have not played before. Eventually though you do expect him to work it out given he is the best returner of all time. With Alcaraz I have highlighted my thoughts on him winning in my other selection. Medvedev would have to drastically change tactics to have a chance & even then it may not be enough.

Some prop bets:
Shelton to have 7 double faults or more @ 1.83 Boylesports
Shelton -3.5 Double Fault Handicap x Medvedev -2.5 Double Fault Handicap Double @ 4.41 Paddy Power (long shot)

Semi finals Bet builder @ 1.875 Bet365:

Shelton Most DF
Shelton 5+ DF
Djokovic 1+ DF
Shelton 5+ Aces
Djokovic 3+ Aces

Medvedev 5+ DF
Alcaraz 1+ DF

Best of luck all

[Swami]

Medvedev @4.5 bf

As I wrote before today, odds really high for the Russian, Daniil is playing better than Carlos, that has faced so far only half decent players (Zverev was injured in the last round), the match could be much closer than what the odds suggest, and there is value here imo. Bet on bf and watching the match, so I might go all green if I feel is the case and have the opportunity.

[CzechPunter]

@sterziyskii Post them here for the rest of the week.

[sterziyskii]

Yestersay I went with Machac, Broady, Cornet and Nagal to win a set.

I'll go for today with O'Connell and Dzumhur at 2.00. I don't think surprises will happen here. O'Connell seems like a pretty safe bet even tho he lost to Tu last year. Dzumhur was an ATP player for a while and is clearly the better player. Hardt doesn't even win many ITF's. If someone wants they can add Seyboth Wild but I'm still thinking about it.

And for the US Open match, I went with MJT on Dvokovic and Alcaraz at 1.9. Won't be an easy match but If Medvedev continues playing like he played on Wimbledon, returning 5 meters from the baseline, Alcaraz will serve wide combined with net or will use the drop shot often. Anyway I'm waiting -1.5 on Alcaraz at 1.50 but I see value in over 36.5 games as well

[CzechPunter]

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Cori Gauff at 1.84 with Unibet

I'm certainly going with Sabalenka in the finals. She had a bit of a horror against Keys, but she recovered well, tightening up her game and also physically outlasting Keys in the end, she really seemed to have the upper hand from her break-back in set two, and, even when she got broken in the decider, she managed to break straight back. I've seen a few of Gauff's matches, and, despite the scorelines, she looked quite shaky in many of them. 

[CzechPunter]

Congrats to all Medvedev backers btw!

[MJT]

Congrats @Swami@Simeon Borisof@timovk.

That was a breathtaking display from Medvedev which I just didn't think he would be able to produce in the match up against Alcaraz. Probably the best match I have ever seen him play. Really hope he can bring that same level in the final against Djokovic as he would have a great of winning his 2nd US Open.