Royal Ascot Day 5 - Saturday 24th June

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 2.30

A big field for the Chesham with Aiden O’Brien saddling the likely favourite Pearls And Rubies, a winner over 5F a fortnight ago over 5F. She looks poor value here and a chance is taken on La Guarida trained by Richard Hannon and owned by Amo Racing who’s Goodwood victory from a month ago has been boosted by wins since for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

 

LA GUARIDA 1 point each way 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.05

The favourite Covey is a fast improving colt trained by the Gosden’s and ridden by Frankie Dettori who looks to hold an outstanding chance dropping back to 7F. Expect to see him to the fore early. The only filly in the race Olivia Maralda impressed last time and trip and ground look ideal and looks the biggest danger. The best outsider may be James Ferguson’s Zoology who got stuck in the mud last time and had previously beaten Covey.

 

COVEY 3 points win 9/4

 

Ascot 3.40

A decent renewal of the newly named QE II Jubilee Stakes. Highfield Princess looks sure to go well as does last years third, the Australian trained Artorius but they may both have to play second fiddle to the Hong Kong trained Wellington who has some smart form in that part of the world and will be ridden by Ryan Moore and should get a nice tow into the race drawn alongside the front going Highfield Princess.

 

WELLINGTON 1 point each way 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 4.20

Hukum stands out here as a good bet having won following a layoff at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes from last years Derby winner Desert Crown. He’ll be more at home over this trip of 1M 4F and can beat Free Wind who’s form was boosted by Rogue Millennium winning here earlier in the week.

 

HUKUM 2 points win 7/4 bet365

 

Ascot 5.00

The annual cavalry charge that is the Wokingham Handicap is up next and we have a warm favourite here in the Charlie Hills trained Orazio, he should go well although I’m not sure lightning fast ground is what he wants and I’ll take him on with Apollo One who ran eighth in the race last year when taking too keen a hold and off of a 1lb lower mark and 3lb officially well in looks a value each way bet with additional places.

 

APOLLO ONE 1 point each way 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456

 

Ascot 5.35

Yet another competitive handicap with my shortlist comprising of Lion Of War who did well to well last time from a poor trip, Knockbrex who’s recent form has been boosted by good runs from Gregory and Chesspiece in Wednesday’s Queens Vase and the Aiden O’Brien recent Navan winner Canute. A tough call but I’ll take Knockbrex to score from Lion Of War.

 

KNOCKBREX 5/1 ew William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 6.00

This can be narrowed down to dual winner of this race Stratum trained. by Willie Mullins, Joseph O’Brien’s classy hurdler Dawn Rising, Charlie Byrnes’ Cesarewitch winner Run For Oscar and Dermot Weld’s Falcon Eight.

All can be given a chance of sorts but the value may lay with the latter who has his ground conditions for the first time in awhile and ran well in this last year.

 

FALCON EIGHT 7/1 ew William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Hope everyone found a winner or two this week, it's certainly been hard going for us punters.

 

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

The big handicap on the final day of Ascot is the Wokingham Stakes. It is named after the town of Wokingham, a market town several miles to the west of Ascot. It is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over 6 furlongs. The off time is 17.00.

31 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

It is best to have had a relatively recent run. There have been 68 horses that ran after a break of more than 6 weeks and only 1 has won.

Those horses drawn in stalls 1 to 9 have a poor record with just 1 win from 68 attempts.

Younger horses have the better record. Horses older than 5 have just 1 win from 90 runs.

All the winners have been in the first 15 in the betting forecast. The remaining outsiders have 0 wins from 77 attempts.

 

This leaves 6 horse.

LETHAL LEVI 14/1

SPANGLED MAC 33/1

KHANJAR 11/1

APOLLO ONE 16/1

PROBE 10/1

FIRST FOLIO 25/1

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.