Racing Chat - Thursday 13th April

[The Brigadier]

Day one of the three day Grand National meeting with six races on the Mildmay course and the Foxhunters over the Grand National fences. The ground following rain earlier this week is likely to ride on the soft side of good for both tracks with the National course slightly softer. Here’s my thoughts on the days action.

 

Aintree 13:45

Only five line up for the first race of the three day Aintree Grand National meeting. Run over 2m 4F the Manifesto Novices’ Chase has the big stat that 10 of the last 13 winners contested either the Arkle Chase (5) or Turners Novices’ Chase (5) at the Cheltenham Festival. Paul Nicholl’s Stage Star has won 4 of his 5 chase starts including the Turners at Cheltenham and is the highest rated of the quintet. He looks sure to play a hand in the finish. Saint Roi had Straw Fan Jack behind when third in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham and has obvious claims although the biggest danger to Stage Star may well come from Joseph O’Brien’s Banbridge who missed Cheltenham due to the soft ground and should appreciate the better ground here today. A dual winner over fences and placed in Irish grade one company twice this season he comes here a fresh horse and can take the race from the Nicholls runner. Irish handler Peter Fahey completes the five with his Visionarian who looks well held on Irish Arkle form by the selection.

 

BANBRIDGE 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill

 

Aintree 14:20

Eleven juveniles face the starter for the Jewson 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle run over 2m 209 yards of the Mildmay course. The clear form horse here is the Willie Mullins trained Zenta. Owned by JP McManus the mare ran a cracker at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle when going down by just two and half lengths to her stable mates Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau. She had Rightsotom and Jipcot way behind her that day and those two outsiders are safely held. Stablemates Gust Of Wind and Blood Destiny were 7 1/2L and 24L further behind and they filled 2nd and 3rd position in a grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse earlier this week to give the form a boost. She’ll be hard to beat here. Gary Moore’s Bo Zenith comes here having won the Victor Ludorum at Haydock and a small contest at Stratford in good form and should be thereabouts for the very much in form trainer whilst Fergal O’Brien’s Greyval is an improver who’s chasing a hat trick of wins. The Joseph O’Brien runner Nusret, who runs in the double green silks of Messr’s Souede and Munir, looked good in the Adonis at Kempton last time out although on official ratings has 8lb to find with the favourite. Willie Mullins is in as good a form now as at any time during this NH season running at a staggering 29% win ratio and his mare Zenta is the one to beat with possibly Greyval the best each way play in the contest. 10 of the last 17 winners finished in the first three of the Triumph Hurdle whilst 9 of the past 14 winners started their racing career, like Zenta, in France so the stats are also very much in favour of Mullins’ mare.

 

ZENTA 2 points win @ 7/4 BetVictor

 

Aintree 14:55

A small but select field of six go to post for the Aintree Bowl Chase run over 3m 210 yards. Four of the sextet ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time and with one of the key stats here being that 25 of the last 38 winners had run in the Blue Riband contest they must be looked at closely. Bravemansgame was only run out of first place on the run in by the smart Galopin Des Champs with, as always, his jumping a joy to behold. 6 1/2L back in third was Conflated who weakened on the run in and should be suited by this flatter track as the trip at Cheltenham really does stretch his stamina whilst two horses who had no luck in the race were Ahoy Senor who fell at the 17th badly hampering the fancied A Plus Tard which put him off of his stride and effectively out of the race. I’m a big fan of Paul Nicholls’ Bravemansgame but I can’t forget how flat he ran at last years meeting when trailing in way behind Ahoy Senor in the 3M 1F Novice Chase and so for that reason I’m reluctantly passing on him today. Lucinda Russell’s Ahoy Senor has won at this meeting the last two years (beating Bravemansgame on both occasions) and with the track likely to suit can run well. Ga Law looks out of his depth having some 22lb to find with top rated A Plus Tard which leaves us with Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin. A top class two mile chaser over the years who’s now stepping up in trip to three miles for the first time under rules. He’s was staying on over 2M 4 1/2F in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last time looking like this trip will suit and is an intriguing runner. A cracker of a race where any bar Ga Law could win but I’ll plump for the Henry De Bromhead trained A Plus Tard who has a tough of class about him and was just creeping into the Gold Cup when badly hampered. He’s officially the highest rated of the six and is very classy on his day.

 

A PLUS TARD 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Aintree 15:30

Only five take on the flying machine that is Constitution Hill in this 2m 4F grade 1 Aintree Hurdle. Nicky Henderson’s six year old who is owned by Michael Buckley is officially rated 16lb and upwards better than his quintet of opponents here and it will be a major surprise if the Nico De Boinville ridden gelding doesn’t win easily. He is stepping up to two and a half miles here for the first time but he’s never stronger than at the end of his two mile contests and in fact this intermediate trip may even suit him. He had two of today’s rivals behind him in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham with Zanahiyr (3rd, beaten 13L) and I Like To Move It (6th, 34L) safely held. His stable mate Epatante won this last year and may have had the ground go against her at Cheltenham last time in the Mares hurdle. Both Sharjah and Sceau Royal at ten and eleven years of age look past their prime and although too short to back Constitution Hill should win this easily. A race to sit back and enjoy as I seriously believe we’re witnessing one of the all time greats.

 

Aintree 16:05

Next up is the twenty eight runner Randox Foxhunters run over 2m 5F 19 yards of the National course. Our resident Hunter Chase expert @Darran has had an extensive look at the field and his thoughts can be seen elsewhere on the forum. No doubt he’ll be giving Famous Clermont a big chance as his selection at Cheltenham who travelled like a winner until his stamina gave out over 3M 2 1/2F and will appreciate this drop in trip on a flatter track

 

Aintree 16:40

The Red Rum Handicap Chase is run over two miles of the Mildmay course and has attracted a field of fourteen. Last years one - two are back to challenge again with The Last Day now a pound better off with the runner up Dancing On My Own. Both, it has to be said mind, are out of form this season and are easily overlooked. My shortlist comprises Sam Thomas’s Grey Diamond who did it well last time at Haydock and is now 7lb higher in the handicap and Lucinda Russell’s Douglas Talking. Russell has been in excellent form this spring and her seven year old may still have improvement in him. A winner of 5 of his 8 starts over the bigger obstacles he jumps very well and even a 10lb rise for his latest success at Sandown may not be enough to stop him from winning again.

 

DOUGLAS TALKING 2 points win @ 5/1 bet365

 

Aintree 17:15

A maximum bumper field of twenty face the starter for the finale of day one of the Aintree Grand National meeting, the grade 2 Mares NH Flat race. Fergal O’Briens Dysart Enos

took the scalp of the well touted Queens Gamble in listed company at Huntingdon last time and looks a player here whilst Willie Mullins saddles two runners and any representative of his has to be taken seriously. Jolie Coeur Allen looks the better of the pair and makes her UK debut here having finished runner up in a bumper at Fontainebleau last September for her then French trainer. Now racing in the colours of JP McManus he’s an interesting one to watch in the market. Another Ex- French contender who his now in the care of Henry De Bromhead is July Flower. She’s won both her starts in France including a grade one contest at Fontainebleau when last seen in November. Both of those Irish trained mares will have to be good mind to beat the Paul Nicholls trained Seeyouinmydreams who made a striking impression when winning at Newbury on his debut under rules (she has won a Irish point to point by 15L), when taking a good hold but always travelling well and sauntering home to win by an easy 11L. Trainer Nicholls was very bullish about her after that win and nominated this race for her which is always a good sign. She’s quite headstrong so I would expect her to be ridden prominently under Harry Cobden.

 

SEEYOUINMYDREAMS 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

All prices were available at time of writing

[richard-westwood]

220 ain't

Zenta  9.2 6/4 

Scriptwriter   8.6 8/1 

Perseus  way  8.5 

Zenta is,well clear here  and is very much the one to beat after finishing 3rd in the triumph hurdle .....10pt win 

[richard-westwood]

440 ain't 

Douglas talking  8.9 5.2 

Hasankey   8.7  14.0 

Last day   8.4 

Top 2 10pt wins ...2x4pt win doubles with above race 

 

[Tedthewolf]

 4.40 Aintree- 1pt e/w HATCHER 11/1 bog 4places- 1pt win THE LAST DAY bog 11/1  &  0.5 rfc  5pt invested

P/L +18.28

Edited April 14, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[Old codger]

Couple of 5 point each way singles and 5 point ew double

405 late night pass 5/1

440 third time lucki 11/2

 

[kensland]

Taunton.

Single.

3.45. Mexican Boy.    6/1.    win

Good luck all.

[black rabbit]

Chaos Control                                2 20 Ain/                 1/40th of a pt ew      33/1

Zanahiya                                         3 30 Ain/                 1/40th of a pt win     33/1

Edited April 13, 2023 by black rabbit

[calva decoy]

G.Moore's string are flying in both codes atm . 

220 Aintree - BO ZENITH 6/1 Sky £ back if 2nd , 3rd or 4th . 2nd beaten by a nostril 

730 Chelmsford - ANFICAS BEAUTY 18/1 Sky eway 4 places . 1st 👍 good ol' sky asked me to accept the price change from 16's to 18's which makes it nicer , trainers flying atm .

Edited April 13, 2023 by calva decoy

[Sporting Sam]

Japanese experiment

Funabashi 9.50

Raging River

Win or Each way

Reeled off a four timer on reappearance last year in January at this track.

Different jockey on board when last seen, reunited with regular jockey here.

Not seen since October this time round. Clear favourite readily opposable in favour of this runner. Prices not yet available could go off short price or around the 11/2 mark.

0945 prices are out 

5/4 win.

Reverse forecast with

This time

Raging River 

Edited April 13, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Thank you nigwilliam for the thumbs up.

Another winner from the land of the rising sun.

Not a great price but raging River won by three lengths. A nice fourth place each way for yesterday's selection in Hong Kong at double figure odds.

[yossa6133]

Aintree EW acca, got around 1000/1

1:45 Banbridge

2:20 Zenta

2:55 A Plus Tard

4:05 Fier Jaguen

4:40 Dancing On My Own 

 

Skybet have Constitution Hill by 10 lengths+ boosted to even money, so think I will do that as well.

 

Constitution won easy but never looked like covering the 10 lengths.

Fier Jaguen was very exuberant so no idea if he would have stayed but that was painful. 

Dancing On My Own was brilliant, looked beaten 3 out but kept battling and saved my day.

Edited April 13, 2023 by yossa6133

[Sporting Sam]

Second and final selection to the 

Japanese experiment today.

Funabashi 11.35

This runner is a course winner but it was so long  ago records are no longer available.

YOKO 

Each way.

Goes from stall 1 and has the help of regular jockey today.

Wil go off a big price, but no form to note save for a third place in March last year.

This is a ¥1 each way no more, but nonetheless due a return to form imminently.

[calva decoy]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Aintree EW acca, got around 1000/1

1:45 Banbridge

2:20 Zenta

2:55 A Plus Tard

4:05 Fier Jaguen

4:40 Dancing On My Own 

 

Skybet have Constitution Hill by 10 lengths+ boosted to even money, so think I will do that as well.

You fancy that even stepping up the extra 4f today that Constitution Hill will be even better ? 

I think he'll win but it'll be hardest race he's ever had today before the step up to Chasing next season but good luck .

[yossa6133]

23 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

You fancy that even stepping up the extra 4f today that Constitution Hill will be even better ? 

I think he'll win but it'll be hardest race he's ever had today before the step up to Chasing next season but good luck .

The trip doesn't worry me really, looks like he could go round again after 2 miles! 10 lengths is tricky as you don't know if he'll be eased down but makes him a backable.

[BBBC]

39 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

The trip doesn't worry me really, looks like he could go round again after 2 miles! 10 lengths is tricky as you don't know if he'll be eased down but makes him a backable.

I’m always wary of these offers - I’m sure it was 10l for Cheltenham, eased down and the official distance was given as 9.5 …

[azzybear]

stage star 1.45 

[azzybear]

Perseus way 2.20 

[azzybear]

fire eyes 2.10 

[azzybear]

Bob and co 2.00 

[Sporting Sam]

2 hours ago, sporting sam said:

Second and final selection to the 

Japanese experiment today.

Funabashi 11.35

This runner is a course winner but it was so long  ago records are no longer available.

YOKO 

Each way.

Goes from stall 1 and has the help of regular jockey today.

Wil go off a big price, but no form to note save for a third place in March last year.

This is a ¥1 each way no more, but nonetheless due a return to form imminently.

Well, 

Yoko

200/1

Second.

Fair to say I'm rather pleased with the experiment.

[jonjo]

A Stable Switcher worth a look at Newcastle this evening in the 5.40 race.

5.40 Newcastle Thaki 9/1

 

Good luck everyone on the first day of the Aintree meeting.

 

[richard-westwood]

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

220 ain't

Zenta  9.2 6/4 

Scriptwriter   8.6 8/1 

Perseus  way  8.5 

Zenta is,well clear here  and is very much the one to beat after finishing 3rd in the triumph hurdle .....10pt win 

Only on the nod but wins ...made hard work of that considering ....let's see if can land the double now ....

[The Equaliser]

Missed Famous Clermont and a place win on Time Leader at 80/1 because of a disrupted day.  Thanks @Darranfor his lovely writeup

5.15 Aint Seeyouinmydreams 1 pt win at 5.29 and 0.50 ew on Magic Dawn at 20/1 (worth a look, methinks)

Total stakes so far 3.50 incl L15

[richard-westwood]

On 4/12/2023 at 4:43 PM, richard-westwood said:

440 ain't 

Douglas talking  8.9 5.2 

Hasankey   8.7  14.0 

Last day   8.4 

Top 2 10pt wins ...2x4pt win doubles with above race 

 

2nd and 4th ....close but no cigar 

[Sporting Sam]

Newcastle 5.40

SIR BENEDICT 

Each way

Very well treated and needs a clear run to get involved.

Every chance though if they all take each other on here. No luck in running lately.

Edited April 13, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Missed Famous Clermont and a place win on Time Leader at 80/1 because of a disrupted day.  Thanks @Darranfor his lovely writeup

5.15 Aint Seeyouinmydreams 1 pt win at 5.29 and 0.50 ew on Magic Dawn at 20/1 (worth a look, methinks)

Total stakes so far 3.50 incl L15

Well, that was a letdown. Beaten 91.5 lengths  Lovely winner for Fergal O'Brien, richly deserved

8.00 Chelm Cappananty Con 1.50 pts to win at 6.8

Total stakes 5 pts today

-------------------------------------------

Very good effort by Taylor Fisher on Cappananty Con, just got caught by the favourite.  Nothing else close so a 5 points loss on the day.  My MTD is now -43.88 and YTD -93.70

Edited April 14, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Sporting Sam]

The final contest of the day.

Chelmsford 8.30

Charlie Johnston has made a good start as head trainer to his Dad.

Smooth Ryder

win

Has tested the patience of a saint. He's been a beaten favourite the last three runs, but he has also been second on each of those runs. Trainer steps him up in trip here in an effort to unlock his clear potential.

He has chosen to go up three furlongs and this race looks the ideal opportunity especially now Margaret Beaufort is a non runner. This should have a significant effect on smooth Ryders chances because of the weights and this horse is either going to win easily or be a busted flush. It is Charlie's only runner of the meeting and yard are bang in form.  I've been working on the effects on other horses when a horse is withdrawn, it is all physics based and theory but there seems to be some basis to my research.

Edited April 13, 2023 by sporting sam