Aintree Foxhunters' preview

[Darran]

Just the 2800 words to the Aintree Foxhunters' preview and quite a few of them are saved for the horse I think will win the race. Hopefully it will help you with you selection for the first race over the big Grand National fences this week.

Ami Desbois - Had some good form last season wining a good hunter chase at Newbury and then finishing 2nd at Cheltenham over a trip that was too short. This season he pulled up behind Fier Jaguen on his return at Chaddesley Corbett and then got very tired at Southwell when a well beaten 4th. Looks past his best and I suspect he will get outpaced.

Bennys King - Has more letters than numbers next to his name, but has looked very good in when winning two hunter chases at Hereford and Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He beat Magic Saint at Hereford and I think that is very strong form. He unseated in the Walrus when still going well at Haydock and then had little trouble beating a weak field at Fakenham. If he gets round he has place claims, but his jumping is a concern and he will do well to be in the front rank as he was in his previous 3 races.

Coastal Tiep - Been behind Vaucelet twice and then well behind Ferns Lock this season after missing the whole of 2021. He didn't jump that well at Thurles last time and whilst he was a 17L 4th in this in 2019 it is hard to se him improving on that this time around.

Cousin Pascal - Caused a massive shock when landing this at 66/1 in 2021, but was only 5th last year and he doesn't look in the same form coming into this year's race. He has won a couple of points, but he ran no sort of race when pulled up behind Bennys King at Hereford and then was a 41L 2nd to Espoir De Teillee at Leicester last time. Clearly he likes Aintree, but he I can't fancy him at all this year.

Dalahast - Been well beaten by some of these already this season and has no chance.

Dento Des Obeaux - Was being beaten in maiden hunter chases in 2021 before finishing 2nd a couple of times in handicaps off 104 and 95. Went missing for 569 days before return in February with 1 2nd in an Irish point. He then won a winner of two comfortably, but the 2nd has been beaten from a lowly mark over hurdles since. He then walked over before bolting up by 22L in a maiden hunter chase. As impressive as he looked at Thurles I do think that form is very weak and it turned out to be a real stamina test which is going to be very different to this.

Dieu Vivant - A horse who often flatters to deceive as he promises a lot more than he actually achieves. The only hunter chases he has managed to win is when he race has fallen apart and he couldn't not win and he has finished twice again already this season. Whilst I can't possibly have him winning this does look the type of race he could run OK in so I wouldn't be surprised if he did outrun his odds.

Dorking Cock - I suspect this test will suit him better than Cheltenham where he didn't really make much of an impact before pulling up. Even so it does tend to suggest he struggles at this level having been well beaten at Punchestown last year. If he could run up to his two efforts at Down Royal the last two seasons when winning and then just being pipped by Vaucelet then he would have a small chance.

Drop Flight – Had some useful form in France, but also had some wayward tendencies which he did show prior to the start on his UK debut at Taunton where he ended up finishing a fairly well beaten 3rd although he did at one stage look like doing worse than that. To be fair he has been well behaved since and was a staying on 2nd to Envoye Special before filling the same spot at Newbury. You wonder if the big crowd might affect him mentally, but I would imagine he will take the fences and he can finish about midfield.

Envoye Special – A quirky horse who tends to find little off the bridle. He was still able to win at Cheltenham last year when beaten fellow bridle merchant Envious Editor and then at Ffos Las when given a very good ride by James King. He was well beaten by Magic Saint at Wincanton last time though and that suggests he shouldn’t be good enough for this.

Famous Clermont – Turning for home at Cheltenham I thought he was going to finish 3rd at worse, but after getting a fantastic ride by Will Biddick, he just failed to see out the trip on the run-in and he slowed so much he ended up finishing 6th. Crucially though his jumping was very good and the best I have seen him jump under rules so hopefully the Grand National fences won’t be an issue although you never know if a horse will take to the fences until they try it. This shorter trip is ideal for him and I can imagine that he will settle in just behind the leaders before trying to pounce late on. If he is over his Cheltenham exertions, then I don’t see how he isn’t involved in the finish.

Fier Jaguen – The 2 best horses I have seen from the UK this season are Famous Clermont and Fier Jaguen. Obviously, the former could be seen by everyone, but Fier Jaguen will only have been seen by a few. I was lucky enough to see his seasonal return in person at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and his performance blew me away. It was just a staggering effort where he made all the running and to my eye wasn't exactly going quick, but he made every horse in the race pull up apart from 1 who plugged on for 2nd once the jockey saw others had pulled up at 2 out. The ground was only good to soft so it wasn't like it was bottomless conditions and it was a strong field. Ami Desbois tried to keep up with him and pulled up at 2 out, Al Shahir did the same and ended up bursting a blood vessel, Monbeg Chit Chat is a hunter chase winner and he was well beaten when he fell, Muckamore was a mid 120s horse under rules and he pulled up and finally Zee Man, who as has run well in a couple of hunter chases and won a point on Easter Monday, was another to pull up at 2 out. Some people tried to crab the performance because the time, but it didn't need to be for me to know what a good performance it was.

On his next start this season at Revesby Park I didn't have the fortune to be there, but I have watched the video and whilst there was only 4 runners he still faced some decent horses in the shape of Dundrum Wood and Pont Aven who was 6th at last year's Festival. Well Pont Aven tried to go with him, but ended up pulling up at 2 out whilst Dundrum Wood was beaten 60L in 2nd. He boosted the form at Alnwick as he won a couple of weeks ago. This time though he wasn't just visually impressive, he also clocked a very high speed figure. In the Go Pointing email which the official website send out for free each week they have a speed ratings section and his figure was 141 and the author had to go back to 2003 to find another rating as high as that.  

He was due to run in a hunter chase at Leicester last month, but the meeting was called off so instead he ran in another point at Ston Easton and again he was really impressive making all and beating Luke Harvey’s Notre Pari, who won on Easter Monday, by 25L and it could have been further. This time his speed rating was 140.

I backed him to beat Gats And Co at Chepstow on his only hunter chase so far, but he was just pipped in the final strides having jumped out to his right for most of the way. Clearly that is a concern here, but he is jumping straighter this season and he wings his fences so hopefully his jumping won’t stop him. What will help is that he will be making the running so will be out of trouble and it will just be a case if something is able to catch him on the run-in.

I K Brunel – Was given a fantastic ride by Izzie to beat Not That Fuisse at Taunton, but she was then unseated from him at the 10th at Cheltenham. As much as the ride was good at Taunton I did think it was a very good performance from the horse at the same time. That might be a blessing in disguise as he didn’t have a hard race at Cheltenham and this contest might be more suitable for him. Alan Hill has done well in this race before with Clondaw Westie and he has more class than that horse so he is a live outsider for me

Its On The Line – Ran a fantastic race to finish 2nd at Cheltenham behind Premier Magic, but everything points to him needing a test of stamina and whilst he might be running on again as he did at Cheltenham, it usually pays to be handy at Aintree so I suspect he will find himself too far back.

Latenightpass – Was 2nd in this in 2021 after finishing 4th at Cheltenham so connections decided to skip Cheltenham last year and just focus on this race and the plan worked a treat as he beat Cat Tiger to win. He has just been kept to points again and was beaten by Shantou Flyer at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas before winning easily at Alnwick. Last month he made slightly hard work to beat Royal Chant by a neck, but it was only a 3 runner race which wont have helped. On what he’s shown so far this season he needs to improve a fair bit, but clearly he has been trained with this race in mind and whilst I won’t be backing him he has a leading chance.

Lough Derg Spirit – Was fairly decent for Nicky Henderson and did have one run for Paul Nicholls back in July 2020. Went missing after that until last February when hacking up in an Irish point. Been beaten on his first 4 starts this season though and only won a 3 runner point after that. Was flattered by his proximity to Ferns Lock at Gowran last time and he looks to have a bit to find for me.

Magic Saint – Got up to a mark of 159 when a handicapper and ran OK off 143 on his first run of the season in January at Wincanton. Was then switched to hunter chases and ran well to just be beaten by Bennys King at Hereford, before winning as he liked at Wincanton. This will be tougher, but he travelled and jumped really well at Wincanton and he wouldn’t be a surprise winner.

Matts Commission – Won a point last time, but as much as he has shown he might find a hunter chase at some point he has been beaten by horses who wouldn’t be winning this and will be outclassed here.

Not That Fuisse – Has done well since going hunter chasing winning 3 times last season and then winning first time up at Wetherby. Didn’t get the greatest luck or ride when 2nd to I K Brunel at Taunton, but he may not have won anyway. This sort of trip used to be ideal, but I think he needs a bit further now and his hold up style doesn’t usually work round the Grand National course. Also the softer the ground the lesser his chance.

Reikers Island – Finished a very creditable 7th in this race last year but was still beaten 39L and he was tailed off in a point last time so he is highly unlikely to improve on that 7th.

Rewritetherules – Wouldn’t win even if he started now.

Sir Jack Yeats – Been 8th and 6th in this race in 2018 and 2019 and then did well handicapping, but it is clear he isn’t the horse he was and was easily put in his place by Bennys King at Fakenham last time.

Sixteen Letters – A very likeable and consistent horse, but he was well beaten by Famous Clermont last May and then again on New Years Day and whilst he should get round he shouldn’t be good enough to play a part in the finish.

Step Back – Thought he ran very well at Taunton when 4th and looking like he needed a stiffer test of stamina which he got at Carlisle when finishing 2nd. He likes to make the running and I struggle to see him being quick enough to do so and that is going to harm his chances, plus he would probably rather they were running the Grand National trip.

Time Leader – Won as he liked in two hunter chases at Leicester and Stratford and whilst they were weak races it was hard not to be impressed. Quite why his trainer decided to run him at Carlisle 6 days after the Stratford run I don’t know as he looked on paper like he would be a non-stayer especially in the ground and that is how it proved. His trainer did cause a shock with Cousin Pascal and this horse is a really good jumper. Whilst I don’t expect him to be good enough, he will certainly run a hell of a lot better than he did at Carlisle.

Wagner – Did really well in the early part of last season for his previous connections, but he then found life a bit tough in the 2nd part of the season. Did win at 1/8 at Higham in February but has been well beaten either side of that and is unlikely to be fighting out the finish.

Winged Leader – Was very unlucky not to win the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase last season when just getting pipped by Billaway at the end. David Christie reported he had been slow to come to hand this season so he has been kept to points so far and he has won all 3. Couldn’t really do anymore than he has, but apart from first up where he just beat Cheltenham 9th Le Malin, he has had very little to beat. Clearly a leading candidate and he’s one of the best horses in the race, but not been a great few days for David Christie with Ferns Lock and Ultimate Optimist both defeated.

Write It Down – Got lucky when winning at Cartmel last year as the first past the post was disqualified for losing its saddle cloth and would need even Foinavon type luck to even get close to winning this.

Verdict – Ever since I saw Fier Jaguen win at Chaddesley Corbett I thought he could win one of the big races and I am very confident that he is going to be hard to beat in this. His stablemate of course won the Cheltenham version, but I think Fier Jaguen is better than him and he can provide his connections with the Cheltenham and Aintree double. His main danger has to be Famous Clermont and it makes sense to cover him as well because for me they are the best two horses in the race. If he is over his Cheltenham effort then this race looks ideal for him and he will be involved in the finish.

Of the others Winged Leader looks easily the best of the Irish, but I’m not sure he’s as good as the two mentioned above. Latenightpass has to be respected given his record in the race and it would be no surprise to see him in the first 4 again. Magic Saint and Bennys King chances are respected as well.

At bigger prices a couple make appeal to outrun their odds. I K Brunel should be capable of running a good race and might be one to run into a place. The sneaky one though at big odds could be Time Leader. His trainer has already won this race with a 66/1 shot and Time Leader is such a good jumper of fences that I think that can take him a long way. I’m not sure he will be quite good enough to win, but you can put a line through his Carlisle run and this will be much more suitable.

Fier Jaguen 4pts @ 6/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred

Famous Clermont 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365 and most other bookies

[Darran]

As per the Cheltenham preview this year if you have enjoyed the preview and found it helpful then I am looking to raise some money to a charity close to my family's heart. As some will be aware my youngest son was born with what is still an undiagnosed illness and has various disabilities. Every Thursday he goes to a charity called Small Steps who work with children aged birth to 5 years who have cerebral palsy or other forms of motor impairment, syndromes or sensory impairment to help with their development and my son has benefitted a lot from the services that they provide. They need to raise £400,000 each year to survive. Obviously there is no pressure at all to donate, but if you can spare a bit of cash then it would be great if I help them raise some money towards their total.

The link to donate is https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate

[yossa6133]

Great work Darran. If that 4 pointer lands I will definitely donate some of the winnings