Rugby League Bets 2023

[harry_rag]

Just realised that Superleague starts tonight! Warrington v Leeds gets us underway, will see if anything appeals.

[harry_rag]

3 most interesting anytime prices for me would be 11/8 Ashton, 3/1 Williams and 5/2 Olpherts (though 1st game for new club). Had what I was allowed on Ashton at 11/8 with 365 and taken him for a 1st half try at 7/2 with Lads. That bet tends to be clearest value when you've got odds on tryscorers for a strong favourite but his price still looks a little generous and will do for an interest in the opening game.

[harry_rag]

Massive value klaxon! Lewis to score a try at 7/2 Uni for Hull KR v Wigan. I'm not that great when it comes to betting on this sport but that's because I enjoy the challenge and take a lot of marginal bets that I wouldn't if I was being ultra selective. This bet pops up with an exceptional 28% edge on my basic numbers. Lewis scored 9 in 18 and 8 in 13 over the last 2 SL seasons. He scored in this fixture last season but not the season before (the only 2 occasions when he played against Wigan).

He's more likely not to score than score but I'd say he's never a 3/1 shot let alone 7/2.

[harry_rag]

No winners so far, Ashton scored twice the week after I backed him.

2 massive stand out prices for me tonight, George Williams at 5/2 with 365 and Kallum Watkins at 9/2 with 365 or Fred.

[Labrador]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

No winners so far, Ashton scored twice the week after I backed him.

2 massive stand out prices for me tonight, George Williams at 5/2 with 365 and Kallum Watkins at 9/2 with 365 or Fred.

 

I've taken Warrington -9.5 at 10/11 (Bet 365). Have been very impressed by Warrington's start to the season and not expecting them to go off the boil like last year. Salford started really brightly against Hull KR but did not score the tries their 1st half performance deserved. However, after HT they fell away badly and looked pretty disorganised once Rovers started to get on top. I can see a few points in this game but anticipate Warrington can pull away in the second half.

 

Not betting on tryscorers as can't see any real value - however the player's price I checked first was - George Williams (good luck?). Was tempted by Sam Kassiano at 6/1. He did score on debut but seemed to tire fairly quickly and looked pretty knackered generally. He is only likely to have about 30 mins game time so decided to swerve.

[Labrador]

On 2/18/2023 at 11:55 AM, harry_rag said:

Massive value klaxon! Lewis to score a try at 7/2 Uni for Hull KR v Wigan. I'm not that great when it comes to betting on this sport but that's because I enjoy the challenge and take a lot of marginal bets that I wouldn't if I was being ultra selective. This bet pops up with an exceptional 28% edge on my basic numbers. Lewis scored 9 in 18 and 8 in 13 over the last 2 SL seasons. He scored in this fixture last season but not the season before (the only 2 occasions when he played against Wigan).

He's more likely not to score than score but I'd say he's never a 3/1 shot let alone 7/2.

 

Could be the night tonight for Mikey Lewis to open his account for the season (best price 11/5 Bet365). Leigh have reportedly only managed one full training session this week following a delayed trip back from the South of France, whereas home side Hull KR have had 8 days break since an excellent win at Salford following a strong 2nd half display. If Leigh do tire in the second half there could be opportunities for the Rovers' half-back Lewis to dart over. 

Also think Hull KR -8 on the handicap could be a decent shout (5/6 Coral).

[Last night's game went nicely to script for Warrington and George Williams??].

[harry_rag]

22 minutes ago, Labrador said:

Could be the night tonight for Mikey Lewis to open his account for the season (best price 11/5 Bet365). Leigh have reportedly only managed one full training session this week following a delayed trip back from the South of France, whereas home side Hull KR have had 8 days break since an excellent win at Salford following a strong 2nd half display. If Leigh do tire in the second half there could be opportunities for the Rovers' half-back Lewis to dart over. 

Good luck. 9/5 best now so you've swerved a jinxing scenario!

[Labrador]

Lewis did the business last week?.

Given the likely weather at Wigan this evening it's hard to imagine a try fest against Catalan Dragons. It's tempting to go low on points but the bookies are already on board with that. As it's Wigan with French, Field and Marshall in their ranks, it always possible they could still notch up a few tries.

If the conditions dictate a tight game with limited expansive attacks out wide, I have picked a couple of Wigan forwards who could reward at big prices. I've had token bets for interest on England prop, Mike Cooper at 10/1 (Spreadex) and Morgan Smithies at 12/1 (Spreadex).

I feel the likliest scorers are Wigan's Liam Farrell and Jai Field - no bets, as the prices do not really appeal.

[Labrador]

Apart from the cold, the conditions should be good for attacking rugby at Leigh this evening for the visit of Saints.

The home side must be very buoyed by their surprising win at Hull KR last week, although they host a Saints side who will be highly motivated after their even more surprising 1pt defeat against Leeds. It should be a stress-free Leigh as few will expect a win, so they should have no compunction in throwing the ball out wide at every opportunity. Their wingers, Josh Charnley and Tom Briscoe scored 2 tries apiece against Hull KR. On the fixed odds these players are 9/4 to score, but I have been attracted by Sporting Index' hotshots buy price of 33. As well as Charnley and Briscoe the quartet includes Zak Hardaker and Ricky Leutele. Spreadex' buy price is 35 for the same 4 players.

Buy Leigh Leopards hotshots at 33 (Sporting Index)

Edited March 10, 2023 by Labrador

[Labrador]

 Leeds should have gained much confidence/momentum from last week's victory over St Helens.  Hopefully no complacency when hosting hapless Wakefield this evening. I was very impressed with Leeds' half back Blake Austin against Saints. He made a few good breaks and seems back to his best. When at Warrington he scored 33 tries in 66 appearances and in the NRL for Canberra Raiders he had 34 tries in 88 games. For much of last season Austin was disappointing for Leeds and came in for much criticism, although he clearly improved, like the team did, as the season progressed.

The weather is set to be dry and calm this evening although obviously pretty cold. I reckon Austin will have have plenty of ball and will be breaking dangerously when he has the chance. For me Austin is value to score a try at 5/2 (skybet).

Edited March 10, 2023 by Labrador

[harry_rag]

Cas v Leeds tonight and the bare numbers suggest Myler might be big to score a try at 9/4 with 365 but he'd be breaking his duck for this season by doing so. Past stats reasonably supportive but I'll leave him alone and be back on to bemoan my judgement after he scores! 

Instead I'll play Nene MacDonald at 21/10 with Lads with a side order of 11/2 for a 1st half try. Scored last week, prolific for Leigh (at a lower level) last season, he'd be a sub 2/1 shot for me.

[Labrador]

Somewhat varying weather forecasts for Castleford have put me off selling multi-points (422 with Spreadex, but still couldn't resist a small stakes sell). Castleford will surely not be as dire as last week especially in a local derby in front of their own fans. One Cas forward who did impress me amongst the shambles was Liam Watts. For a bit of interest I've had a very modest bet at 11/1 on him to score.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Cas v Leeds tonight and the bare numbers suggest Myler might be big to score a try at 9/4 with 365 but he'd be breaking his duck for this season by doing so. Past stats reasonably supportive but I'll leave him alone and be back on to bemoan my judgement after he scores! 

[Labrador]

Frustrating, Harry.

I'm glad I couldn't resist a multi-points sell as it yielded 310 points profit, albeit to reduced stakes.

[harry_rag]

Backed Dodd for St Helens at an easily available 11/4 tonight. The spread firms rate him as more like a 6/4 shot and even if that would be a bit skinny I don't think he should be that big.

[Labrador]

Poor weather forecast for St Helens with heavy rain anticipated throughout the match. Both sides desperate to put right their last couple of results. In the conditions it could be closer and tighter than might be expected. I've had a sell of cross points at 399 with Spreadex. If Saints do hit their straps and rack up a few points, they could keep Hull to very few opportunities and even a nilling (says he, hopefully?). Probably a safer option than selling multi-points in case Saints do click.

In the conditions I can envisage a Roby or Lussick dart over from dummy half. However, at the price I've taken Saints' Agnatius Passi at 8/1 to score (17/2 best price).

[harry_rag]

33 minutes ago, Labrador said:

Poor weather forecast for St Helens with heavy rain anticipated throughout the match.

Good luck with the bet. Forecast seems to have been unduly pessimistic for the NW so far today, from my experience!

[Labrador]

Cheers, despite the better conditions than forecast, there were only 32 points in the match. Unfortunately I chose the wrong option since there were only 4 points scored in the 1st half for a multis make up of 112, whereas cross points made up at 240. Still I'm not sneezing at 159 points profit.

[harry_rag]

Couple of Salford players appeal at the prices v Wakefield. Brierley at 6/4 with Uni and Watkins at 9/4 with 365.

Salford 20 point favourites, Brierly scored 15 tries in 30 appearances this season and last , Watkins 14 in 24. Spread prices pitch Brierley as an odds on shot and Watkins 2.8 at the most.

[Labrador]

Championship game on subscription TV this evening Batley Bulldogs v Barrow Raiders. Each have played 5 league games so far "amassing" 90 points and 70 points respectively. They have respectively conceded 129 and 125 points. Will the attacks of both sides continue to struggle or will one or both defences crumble? With the game on TV it's perhaps more likely that players will tough it out to the end. The weather forecast at the moment is for rain during the game with heavy rain during the second half. However, trusting forecasts is becoming akin to believing what comes out of a politician's mouth.

Under 42.5 match points is available at 11/10 with skybet and bet 365, although I've had a sell of match multi points at 499 (Spreadex).

Barrow's firepower this season has lacked the spark of Hakim Miloudi and Tee Ritson (now with St Helens). Their most regular scoring forward is Jarrod Stack who broke his duck for the season with a brace in Barrow's last league game v Newcastle. Stack is available at 9/2 (Bet 365) to score this evening.

[Just heard that the game will not be played at Batley where the big sloping pitch is a big home advantage - damage to Batley's floodlights means the match switched to Dewsbury].

Edited March 20, 2023 by Labrador
new info

[Labrador]

Only 36 points in Batley/Barrow game so unders and multi points were successful. Match multis made up at 224, although with only 8 points in the first half I took the profit then and closed at 168 for 331 points profit☺️.

No try for Stack.

[harry_rag]

 Well done again. You’re making this one of the most profitable threads on the forum despite my involvement! 

[harry_rag]

According to my pricing "model"  all 8 hotshots in tonight's Huddersfield v St Helens game are on offer at a value price to score a try at anytime. Probably the most likely conclusion from that is my model is inaccurate but that's something I'll assess at the end of the season when I've gathered more data. As most of the best prices are with 365 it's largely academic as they'll only allow me enough stake to win a tenner. For an interest I've backed all 8 players staked to win a tenner; let's see if it generates a positive return.

Naiqama	4
McQueen	4.5
Senior	3.5
Pryce	4.33
Welsby	3
Makinson	2.625
Bennison	3
Dodd	6

No doubt @Labrador will be along later if there's a proper bet to be had, I'm very much the warm-up man or court jester in this thread! 

[harry_rag]

I meant to add that the standout prices according to the spreadsheet are Dodd (82% edge) and Naiqama (21%). The others all offer less than 10% edge, with McQueen, Pryce and Makinson only just short of that mark.

[Labrador]

I don't think there is anything I can find at a price I like this evening, so I'll just watch the game stress-free?.

I was considering unders at around 40.5 but feel the bookies have this short enough. The only tryscorer I considered was Giants' Luke Yates (17/2 Spreadex).

Hoping for more inspiration tomorrow and over the weekend. Hope all your 8 players score, Harry? .

[harry_rag]

Just a try each for Makinson and Senior last night for a small loss. Given that sellers of the hotshots would have made a 26 point profit (so still in front even if another player had scored) it suggests that the fixed odds market was they way to go if you wanted to side with the players scoring. Just a couple of more selective plays in tonight's Wigan v Salford game; Wardle at 9/4 with Uni and Brierley at 3/1 with 365 (not bad at the next best 11/4).

[harry_rag]

Leigh v Wigan: Charnley to score a try at 6/4 with Uni

Tipped by the RP at 11/8 who also fancy Leigh to stay within the 8 point handicap. Has scored in all bar one of Leigh's games this season. 

Leigh hotshots are 37-40 (Hardaker, Briscoe, Leutele, Charnley) and should be a sell for me but I'm applying a rare overrule. Their hotshots would've been costly to sell so far this season and my gut tells me they'll score 2 or more tonight. Wigan's can be bought or sold at 57 (Field, French, Wardle, Marshall) and would not be a sell for me. I get a notional value of 61.3 and, if you pressed me to go one way or the other, I'd favour the buy (though that flies in the face of all the evidence that suggests you should always be a seller in this market).

[Labrador]

Basement teams this evening when Castleford host Wakefield. Arguably a Championship quality match, although on paper Castleford have a much better squad. When on loan in the Championship Jack Broadbent was a prolific tryscorer. He also scored a few when starting his career as a 19-year old with Leeds Rhinos.

So far this season Broadbent has played virtually everywhere in the Castleford back line. He scored earlier in the season against St Helens and last week scored twice against Catalan Dragons. I hope the weather is not too bad this evening because currently the Met forecast is heavy rain for a short spell shortly before kick off at 8 pm.

I've split stakes with a buy of Broadbent's try mins at 15 and super mega minutes at 21 (Spreadex).

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, Labrador said:

I've split stakes with a buy of Broadbent's try mins at 15 and super mega minutes at 21 (Spreadex).

Good luck. Best priced anytime at 9/4 with SX and I'd say that 15 is on a par or slightly better than that (it equates to 12/5 in my rough and ready conversion chart). 6 seems a steep premium though for the potential of a double up; I think I'd have had more on at the 15 and/or a bit on the brace at 9/1.

Faraimo try struck me as a maybe at 13/10 with 365 and I've decided to have the small stake allowed having seen the RP tip him up as 1st tryscorer. They like Cas to cover the 10 point handicap and I've taken Wakefield to trail at anytime at 1/8 in my "short priced selections" thread.

[harry_rag]

Interesting arb on Miski's try minutes @Labrador37-41 with SX but 19-22 with SPIN! I'd say 2/1 anytime with 365 is too big and have had the fiver allowed. 4/1 Dodd in a few places also a bet for me, though I'm having a shocker with any SL bets that aren't prefaced by the word "sell" so far.