Rugby League Bets 2023

[Labrador]

On 4/6/2023 at 1:17 PM, Labrador said:

Basement teams this evening when Castleford host Wakefield. Arguably a Championship quality match, although on paper Castleford have a much better squad. When on loan in the Championship Jack Broadbent was a prolific tryscorer. He also scored a few when starting his career as a 19-year old with Leeds Rhinos.

So far this season Broadbent has played virtually everywhere in the Castleford back line. He scored earlier in the season against St Helens and last week scored twice against Catalan Dragons. I hope the weather is not too bad this evening because currently the Met forecast is heavy rain for a short spell shortly before kick off at 8 pm.

I've split stakes with a buy of Broadbent's try mins at 15 and super mega minutes at 21 (Spreadex).

Not giving up on Broadbent this evening when Castleford visit Salford. Jack Broadbent 7/2 to score with Unibet.

I notice that Kallum Watkins is actually playing at second row for Salford, yet he appears in the hotshots markets. Might encourage Salford hotshot sellers 😉at 48 (SPIN). 

Whenever Marc Sneyd is in a TV game it's always worth looking at drop goal and 40/20 prices. I've seen 9/2 and 7/2 respectively with Bet 365. I favour the 40/20 bet, as Cas hooker Paul McShane has also been known to try 40/20 kicks from dummy half (not to forget Gareth Widdop). A 40/20 to be kicked in the match 7/2 Bet 365.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Labrador

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, Labrador said:

I notice that Kallum Watkins is actually playing at second row for Salford, yet he appears in the hotshots markets. Might encourage Salford hotshot sellers 😉at 48 (SPIN). 

Already sold at 49!

[Labrador]

9 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Already sold at 49!

Then you can't blame me if he scores twice🏉🏉😇 .

[harry_rag]

Usually a sellers market for me (49 points profit on that last bet) but Leigh hotshots make some appeal as a buy today at 49 with SPIN (or 47 with SX assuming it's the same players; they aren't bothering to tell us who their hotshots actually are). The players are Hardaker, Briscoe, Leutele and Charnley.

Basically Wakefield tend to ship points for fun and the Leigh quartet look good for 2 or more tries to me. I'd be asking you to pay a bit more than 50 if I was setting the price, rather than a bit less.

[harry_rag]

St Helens v Warrington tonight and I can't take any specific issue with the hotshots prices.

There are 2 anytime prices that stand out for me, both with 365 so I'm limited to winning a tenner. Ashton at 2/1 and Dodd at 5/1.

I should add that following my standout prices would not be especially profitable so far (3 winners from 16 with a supposed edge over 20% for a loss of 6 points and 2 from 12 between 10% and 19.99% for a 6.6 point loss). That would suggest that my attempts to frame "true" prices are rubbish but as there are only 107 players in the data so far I'll carry on gathering it and have the occasional small bet. To be fair, I've only put money down where the player's stats support the notion that the price is value but the returns have still been poor.

If you'd sold all 27 sets of hotshots you'd have made a profit of 420 points (about 2.5 x the typical expected profit) and if you'd sold all the players' try minutes you'd have made 1062 points (about 3 x expected profit) so it's fair to say that it's been a poor return from the supposed "hot" shots I've recorded so far.

As ever, it illustrates the extent to which it's generally easier to make money from the spreads than it is fixed odds.

[Labrador]

Impossible to call this one with so many absentees on both sides. Although he is surprisingly on the bench for Warrington and may not get much game time, I couldn't resist a bet on Peter Mata'utia at 11/1 (Spreadex).

[Labrador]

Whilst Leigh v Leeds could be pretty close this evening, I am swayed by the fact that the home side have had 2 days less to recover from their last game. This can be quite a factor at this level and could see Leeds finishing strongly. Have backed Leeds (-3.5) at 27/25 (Unibet).

Also looking for a Leeds player who could take advantage of a tiring Leigh defence towards the end of the game. Blake Austin is an obvious contender to dart through, but at the prices I like the chances of perpetual motion loose forward Cameron Smith. Have had a small bet on him to be last tryscorer at 40/1 but more sensibly have bought his try minutes at 7 (Spreadex).

Looking forward to the TV game (Castleford v Hull KR). No bet but will watch my usual try-scorer suggestions, Jack Broadbent and Mikey Lewis both score no doubt😬 .

[harry_rag]

Hull v Wigan tonight, can't disagree with the market much or the RP verdict that Wigan will win and probably cover an 8 point handicap.

No hotshots sell for me in this one. Will bring the Betbuilder vibe into play and have the 71p allowed on all of Miski, French and Marshall to score a try at 10/1. All look slightly over priced although we know what usually happens when I make that observation this season! 

If I was still bothering with short priced selections I'd say that 1/8 for Wigan to lead at anytime feels like a bit of a gimme on current form; Hull struggle to score and have a porous defence. Put it this way, not a game where I'd have played the neither team to score 0 points angle.

[Labrador]

Wakefield v Hull FC could be a bit of a grind tonight with home side still looking for first win but an improved showing last time against league leaders, Warrington. Hull seem to have addressed their slump. Playing conditions should be pretty good.

Given the potential closeness of the game I've backed a successful drop goal at 9/2 (Bet 365). Hull FC's second half hooker, Brad Dwyer,is usually good for a couple of darts from dummy half near the opponents' try line so have backed him to score at 6/1 (SX) and also a buy of his try minutes at 9 (SX).

[harry_rag]

Hull v Castleford: Barron to score a try at 9/4 with Fred.

Shorter everywhere else, odds on in places. Try minutes at 30-34 with SX.

Should be 6/4 at most in my opinion, though I wouldn't exactly say you could take my opinion to the bank when it comes to fixed odds betting on this sport!

Spread betting is a different matter though (he said modestly, and in the full knowledge that no one is reading anyway).

SX's hotshots look like a routine sell to me at 66 (Barron, Sutcliffe, Swift and Tuimavave) but the better bet would be with SPIN at the same price (McIntosh, Trueman, Tuimavave and Swift). McIntosh not involved so will just add 8 points to the total. I make it the "true" price is 53 but it's no bet for me for now as it's not clear they know he's not playing so they could cry "palp".

[harry_rag]

My spreadsheet tells me it would be a good bet to back all 4 of Wigan's hotshots (Field, French, Marshall and Miski) at the best available anytime tryscorer prices but my past returns tell me to leave that alone so we'll see what transpires.

I've had 3 small bets on Marshall, French or Charnley scoring a try in both halves (14/1 the first two and 18/1 the latter) as those prices look a bit big. Hopefully one or two score before the break to at least give me a run for my money.

[harry_rag]

Alert the snipers, I'm having a RL bet! 

Charnley to score a try for Leigh v Catalans looks about right to me around the even money mark. 11/8 with 365 strikes me as a decent bet. He's scored 22 in 24 starts for Leigh, scoring at least one in 14 of those games (6 braces and a hat-trick). Some of the derivative prices look generous and as I'm allowed such a small stake I've taken them (makes the decision easier when you can't get a "proper" bet on). 11/2 for the brace and 28/1 the hat trick. I've also played 10/3 for him to score one in the first half at 10/3 with Lads as that's the wrong side of 3/1 according to my "magic" spreadsheet.

To be honest I just want to prove that it's scientifically possible for me to win a fixed odds bet on a rugby league tryscorer.

[harry_rag]

On 8/19/2023 at 1:10 PM, harry_rag said:

To be honest I just want to prove that it's scientifically possible for me to win a fixed odds bet on a rugby league tryscorer.

It seems not; let's try a change of tack! Percival for St Helens looks huge to me at 13/5 or 5/2. I'll refrain on the basis of all available evidence and the snipers who should, by now, have me in their crosshairs. Do your own due diligence but I think there's little surer than any bet I comment on but don't back on here!

[Labrador]

Whilst I expect Wakefield to have a spirited first half at least at Leigh, there's a strong chance that they will fold completely in the last quarter once their relegation is assured. I have been impressed with the recent performances of Leigh prop, Robbie Mulhearn. He scored late tries against both St Helens and Wigan in recent games. For me he's a bit of value to score at 13/2 and may reward a split stakes buy of his try minutes at 6 and mega minutes at 10 (all with Spreadex).

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

It seems not; let's try a change of tack! Percival for St Helens looks huge to me at 13/5 or 5/2. I'll refrain on the basis of all available evidence and the snipers who should, by now, have me in their crosshairs. Do your own due diligence but I think there's little surer than any bet I comment on but don't back on here!

Told you!  I should start a premium tipping service as the ROI for these must be off the chart. "It's the bets Harry Rag rejects..."

[harry_rag]

Not done any study (too much effort when I'm not betting) but Lewis at 3/1 for Hull KR looks big. Opacic and Brieley worth a closer look as well perhaps.

[harry_rag]

Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best	R#	Edge
Davies	20	21	20.5	2.64	2.37	2.90	3.2	67.20	21.34%
Keighran	16	19	17.5	2.99	2.69	3.29	3.75	71.25	25.38%
Ikuvalu	17	19	18	2.92	2.63	3.22	4	76.00	36.81%
Johnstone	30	31	30.5	1.97	1.77	2.17	2.5	77.50	27.00%
Welsby	13	15	14	3.60	3.24	3.96	4.333	65.00	20.41%
Makinson	21	22	21.5	2.54	2.29	2.80	3.25	71.50	27.88%
Percival	13	14	13.5	3.71	3.34	4.08	6	84.00	61.67%
Dodd	9	11	10	4.82	4.34	5.30	8	88.00	66.00%

Above numbers for tonight's game between Catalans and St Helens. Basically all 8 hotshots priced in the anytime try scorer market with >20% edge over my supposed "true" odds! Now this is more a data gathering exercise than something I would trust (unlike the anytime goalscorer system) but it's unusual to see all 8 players flagged as potential bets. The data suggests backing any player rated at 68+ (the R#) which would've returned 12 points profit from 57 bets with an ROI of 21%. On that basis you could chalk off Davies and Welsby.

My track record with betting on RL tryscorers is shocking (you'd have expected a better return by picking entirely at random) and some of the prices are with 365 where I wouldn't get a worthwhile stake on so I'll just paper trade these till the Grand Final and look at the data after that. So let's see how the 6 qualifiers do tonight.

[harry_rag]

Grand Final Time, so I can then analyse the accumulated data to my heart's content!

Did manage to find 6/4 Miski last weekend which ended what seemed to be a mathematically impossible string of losing bets.

I think him, Marshall and Johnstone are all overpriced by 365 tonight so I'm signing off with the small stakes allowed on them at 15/8 and 21/10 twice. Rude not to take the pennies allowed on all 3 at 25/1!