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Racing Chat- Saturday 16th July

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
Newbury 1.50
Just five declared for this 10F listed Steventon Stakes. It’s certainly not the strongest of listed contests with just two pounds covering the quintet of runners on official ratings. Favourite Cadillac was sold on the eve of Royal Ascot for a cool half a million pounds and rewarded new connections with second place in the listed Wolferton Stakes. That form however hasn’t worked out that well with seven individual runners from the race beaten since. At odds of around 6/4 I’m more than happy to take him on. Desert Encounter has a 259 day absence to overcome whilst Finest Sound ran a shocker on his re-appearance (reportedly didn’t like the track). Grocer Jack is interesting, a German import that’s shown some promise in two starts abroad for top trainer William Haggas and has claims but the one I want to be with to small stakes is the Mark Todd trained Tasman Bay. He was some 12l behind Cadillac at Ascot but that was his re-appearance and is reflected in his price. He ran placed behind some smart sorts last season in Hurricane Lane, Alenquer and Baaeed and surely he’s better than his Ascot run. At the prices I’ll pay to find out with David Probert back on board (was ridden by Jack Mitchell at Ascot).
 
TASMAN BAY 1 point win @ 10/1 bet365
 
Market Rasen 2.06
Seven runners here for this class 2 2m 7F handicap hurdle. There’s shouldn’t be much between Galileo Silver and Jersey Wonder. There was a length between them in favour of the former and on 2lb worse terms may just confirm the form. Jonjo O’Neill has his team of jumpers in fine shape and Apache Creek bounced back to form at 14/1 at Warwick last time and despite a 4lb rise can too be competitive. David Pipe is having an excellent summer and his Roman De Senam reverts to hurdles from a 7lb lower mark and shouldn’t be dismissed. Top weight Ask Paddington is chasing a four timer having risen 17lb for those victories but is unproven at three miles. A tough handicap with no stand out bet but maybe a small wager on Sam Thomas’s improver Galileo Silver in a first time visor to confirm recent placings with Jersey Wonder.
 
GALILEO SILVER 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill
 
Newbury 2.21
Just eight go to post for the two mile class 2 handicap. There’s certainly no stand out bet here as claims can reasonably be made for all. Three of these ran in the 2m 5F handicap at Royal Ascot with Going Gone coming out a length too good from Reshoun with Rock Eagle three and a half lengths further behind. Going Gone is a couple of pounds better off today but wouldn’t be certain to confirm the form with Ian William’s Reshoun. Others with chances include Tom Ward’s Diamond Bay, a runner up at Salisbury last time out and bottom weight Auriferous. I’ll take a chance though on the nine year old and top weight here Withhold trained by Harry and Roger Charlton and owned by shrewd gambler Tony Bloom. His best days are no doubt behind him (he won the 2017 Cesarewitch at Newmarket and 2018 Northumberland Plate at Newcastle) but showed enough following a 245 day absence when 6th of 7 at Chester behind subsequent winner Soapy Stevens to suggest there’s another payday in him and in a race where nothing stands out can be competitive. He’s won this actual event before and was a good third in it last year and as always expect him to be ridden prominently from the front which as there appears to be no other pacesetter may allow him to get an easy lead.
 
WITHHOLD 1 point each way @ 15/2 888sport 1/5th 123
 
Market Rasen 2.41
A fair turnout considering the likely lightning fast conditions with eleven going to post for this class 2 handicap hurdle over the minimum trip of two miles. The two improvers are at the head of the market in the shape of Dr Newland’s Galata Bridge and Gerald Stephen Quinn’s Cirque Royal. The former comes here on the back of a very impressive win at Huntingdon back in May for which he’s been pushed up 12lb whilst Cirque Royal is making his handicap debut having won novice hurdles at Perth and Kelso in May. He easily dismissed Ted Hastings on the latter course and that one has easily won at Cartmel giving the form a boost. He’ll do for me. Bottom weight Caramelised also comes into the reckoning for Alan King but it’s Cirque Royal for me who started his career with the Godolphin operation at Charlie Appleby’s and looks one of the day’s better bets.
 
CIRQUE ROYAL 3 points win @ 4/1 bet365
 
Newbury 2.56
A competitive contest next up for the group 3 Hackwood Stakes run over 6F with a decent field of fourteen going to post. Last years winner Happy Romance looks likely to run well having kept group one company on both his starts this season. The best in at the weights today is David Evans’ Wokingham winner Rohaan who’s yet another with claims. Man Of Promise should appreciate stepping up in trip and although he carries a 3lb penalty is another who can be competitive. Owen Burrows won one of the feature races last Saturday and his Minzaal looks likely to be thereabouts and is the tentative selection in a race that look open enough.
 
MINZAAL 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Market Rasen 3.14
The Summer Plate Handicap Chase is run over 2m 5F 89yds and this year has attracted a competitive field of fourteen chasers. Fergal O’Brian’s Mortlach is unbeaten in three starts over fences and has obvious claims whilst last year’s easy winner Francis Du Berlais is only 2lb higher this time around and should be thereabouts. It’s a wide open contest mind and I’ll play a couple of recent winners small each way against the field. Texard jumped well when bolting up at Uttoxeter in the week coasting home by some 28L and if in the same form can go well under Philip Armson for David Pipe. He’ll be my main play here whilst I’ll also have a small each way wager on bottom weight Rostello trained by Dr Richard Newland at Claines in Worcestershire. He too was an easy wide margin week earlier in the week and like Texard has to carry a 5lb penalty but such was the ease of the success that he (like Texard) will be going up more than that when re-assessed next week.
 
TEXARD 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
ROSTELLO 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 1234
 
Newbury 3.30
The usual 5F cavalry charge for the two year old’s is up next with twenty one juveniles spread across the course for the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes with £200k guaranteed in prize money that goes right down to tenth place. 7lb clear on official ratings is the David O’Meara trained Maria Bramwell who brings easily the best form to the table and represents the best bet of the day. She followed up wins at Thirsk and Sandown (listed National Stakes) with an excellent third in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot behind the smart Dramatised. As a 22,000 guineas purchase as a yearling she gets a reasonable weight here and with a fair draw in stall 11 will be hard to beat. On the subject of the draw it pays to be in the higher numbers with the last ten winners all berthed in double figure stalls. Rogue Spirit looks speedy and from stall 18 can give Tom Clover and Jack Mitchell a good spin. Richard Hannon has an excellent record in this race and saddles five runners today. The best of which may well be Miami Girl who’s berthed in stall 16 but is actually held by the selection on Royal Ascot running. With luck in running ( I was very keen on Chipotle in this race last year but his chance was undone by a poor ride) I fully expect Maria Bramwell to go very close and she’s the bet.
 
MARIA BRAMWELL 3 points win @ 11/4 bet365
 
Curragh 3.45
Eight go to post for the Irish Oaks run over a mile and a half and we have a warm favourite here in the John and Thady Gosden trained Emily Upjohn. She was arguably unlucky when fluffing the start in the Epsom version but finished well to go down by the shortest of short heads to Tuesday. That form is far superior to any of her rivals, the best of whom may well be the Ribblesdale winner Magical Lagoon trained by Jessie Harrington. Aiden O’Brien saddles three here with the best being Toy who is the pick of Ryan Moore. She would need to significantly step up on what she’s shown this season mind and this first prize should be making its way to Clarehaven Stables at Newmarket. She’s at prohibitive odds mind so there’s no betting angle for me.
 
Late news - Emily Upjohn misses the race due to travel complications
 
 
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ipswich45

ipswich45

Posted
Posted

The Raiders

Curragh
1330
#5 Hans Andersen       R Moore / A O'Brien

1405
#2 Little Big Bear         R Moore / A O'Brien

1510
#1 Equilateral               L Dettori / C Hills
#3 Cadamasto              R Moore / A O'Brien

1545
#3 Emily Upjohn          L Dettori / J &T Gosden
#8 Toy                          R Moore / A O'Brien

1725
#14 So Beautiful          R Moore / A O'Brien
============================
Saint Cloud
1900
#5 My Prospero        T Marquand / W Haggas
============================
Saratoga
2203
#2 Creative Flair        J Spencer / C Appleby

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)

Rapid responce   3 14 MK      1/5 pt ew    50/1     4th

Hisnameis mrdevitt      2 41   MK         1/5 pt win  14/1 

Tasman bay  1 50 Nbury   1/5 pt win  8/1

St lawrence  2 56 Nbury  1/5 pt win  18/1  

Dare to hope  3 30 Nbury  1/5 pt win  20/1

yosemite valley  2 03 curr  1/5 pt win   7/1   2nd

 

 

 

P/L   +   137 pts

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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fd1972uk

fd1972uk

Posted
Posted

Taking up moneyback and free bet if win for a few, also used my betfair fbs balance on multiples.

1406 mr galileo silver

1421 new going gone and diamond Bay mbo

1441 Mr cirque Royal fbw

Galata Bay fb2nd

Ew mbo on hurricane Ali and caramelised

1456 new rohaan fbw

Ew 4fold

1435 cur Mr wagyu

1535 new rogue spirit

1620 cur wild shot

1700 Mr mi laddo

 

Treble

1403 cur little big bear

1610 car Brean das

1743 car dee star

Double

1530 new Maria Bradwell

1605 new Julia August

 

Good luck all.

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

Tons of races to choose from; I wish they would Spread Saturday meetings out during the week

2.16 Nm The Green Man 5/2

2.41 M/R Cirque Royal 11/4

3.28 Rip Approachability 9/4

5.00 M/R Kayfast Warrior 4/1

6x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x0.5 win trbles, 1 a 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.50 stakes and poss return of 264.23

Singles:

2.21 NB Reshoun 1 pt win at 9.8 and Rock Eagle 0.5 win at 10/3

2.56 NB Minzaal 1 pt win at 7.8

3.30 NB Miami Girl 1 pt win at 9.0

2.41 M/R Caramelised 1 pt win at 9.2

3.14 M/R Texard 1 pt win at 6/1

5.00 M/R Kayfast Warrior 2.67 pts at 5.7 (my PL Nap with Brian Hughes aboard)

Total stakes = 13.67 today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Only two winners today but they paid for my betting so I can't complain.  All bets in my multiples lost so they were very disappointing.  Anyway, 1.33 pts profit today means an MTD of -16.26 and YTD -159.28

Looks like we are back to short priced favourites tomorrow in the class 4 plus races tomorrow so it could be tough going

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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Bang on

Bang on

Posted
Posted

A crazy 8 meetings today, I have so far just done  to VERY SMALL STAKES 10 x EW doubles, and for fun a £1 ew acca on the following.

2.29 Cart - Vocal Duke - 11/2 ( 4 places ) - Top trainer and jockey at the course, usually reliable when running here, is a CD winner.

2.41 M.Ras - Castel Gandolfo - 12/1 - Trainer Fergal O'Brien who is in very ggod form has 2 in the race and the stable jockey rides this one

4.01 Ripon - Garden Oasis  - 6/1 - Has won off 7lbs higher and is a 3 x CD winner.

5.00 M.Ras - Soldier on Parade - 8/1 - has dropped 13lbs in the hcp in the last 5 runs. Is a 3 x CD winner.

8.45 Donc - One more Try - 11/2 - has dropped 8lbs in just 3 runs, should benefit from reappearance run, 2nd top course trainer.

I will be having a few singles but this is just a very small stakes bet as I could see a reason for them to run well... and they are races with at least 3 places available... something becoming quite rare these days.

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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted

3.08 Cheaster iI tipped up Apollo one  lto and it ran 8th in wokingham  showed up for a long way so   could well try to make all dropped to 5f for the first time . Opened as  big as 12's yesterday  i got on at 9's e/w as low as 4/1 now so won't tip it up at that   price  but i also think Shamlaan can go well so i will tip those  2 up for a RFC.

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

Trends for the Weatherbys Super Sprint )Newbury 3.30)

Drawn 1 - 12, 0 from 86, this reduces the field to 9

Odds 14/1 - 33/1, 4 from 95, AE 1.97

This leaves DARE TO HOPE, SAFARI DREAM, MICHAELA'S BOY, GALORE and CLARENTINA

Female horses 5 from 91, AE 1.26

This leaves GALORE and CLARENTINA

Bred in Ireland, 5 from 113, AE 1.24

This leaves GALORE at 100/1, 5 places

 

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alexcaruso808

alexcaruso808

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the Weatherbys Super Sprint )Newbury 3.30)

Drawn 1 - 12, 0 from 86, this reduces the field to 9

Odds 14/1 - 33/1, 4 from 95, AE 1.97

This leaves DARE TO HOPE, SAFARI DREAM, MICHAELA'S BOY, GALORE and CLARENTINA

Female horses 5 from 91, AE 1.26

This leaves GALORE and CLARENTINA

Bred in Ireland, 5 from 113, AE 1.24

This leaves GALORE at 100/1, 5 places

 

That's worth a bet at those odds.  ?

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The Scientist

The Scientist

Posted
Posted
On 7/15/2022 at 11:38 AM, ipswich45 said:

The Raiders

Curragh
1330
#5 Hans Andersen       R Moore / A O'Brien

1405
#2 Little Big Bear         R Moore / A O'Brien

1510
#1 Equilateral               L Dettori / C Hills
#3 Cadamasto              R Moore / A O'Brien

1545
#3 Emily Upjohn          L Dettori / J &T Gosden
#8 Toy                          R Moore / A O'Brien

1725
#14 So Beautiful          R Moore / A O'Brien
============================
Saint Cloud
1900
#5 My Prospero        T Marquand / W Haggas
============================
Saratoga
2203
#2 Creative Flair        J Spencer / C Appleby

I must thank our resident tipsters...It never was my strong point. I rely on my vastly experienced eye.

I see The Brigadier tipped Mizaal the Newbury 2.58 winner...well done. I saw the horses behind the stalls and Minzaal impressed me enough to tap up my on line bookie. So excited I kept miskeying. They were off and I switched to in running and got 4-1.

Thats the problem with tipping...you can never be sure if the "Horse in the Formbook" is the same one that enters the stalls.

But well done all you tipsters! Very brave

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 7/15/2022 at 8:35 AM, The Brigadier said:
Newbury 1.50
Just five declared for this 10F listed Steventon Stakes. It’s certainly not the strongest of listed contests with just two pounds covering the quintet of runners on official ratings. Favourite Cadillac was sold on the eve of Royal Ascot for a cool half a million pounds and rewarded new connections with second place in the listed Wolferton Stakes. That form however hasn’t worked out that well with seven individual runners from the race beaten since. At odds of around 6/4 I’m more than happy to take him on. Desert Encounter has a 259 day absence to overcome whilst Finest Sound ran a shocker on his re-appearance (reportedly didn’t like the track). Grocer Jack is interesting, a German import that’s shown some promise in two starts abroad for top trainer William Haggas and has claims but the one I want to be with to small stakes is the Mark Todd trained Tasman Bay. He was some 12l behind Cadillac at Ascot but that was his re-appearance and is reflected in his price. He ran placed behind some smart sorts last season in Hurricane Lane, Alenquer and Baaeed and surely he’s better than his Ascot run. At the prices I’ll pay to find out with David Probert back on board (was ridden by Jack Mitchell at Ascot).
 
TASMAN BAY 1 point win @ 10/1 bet365
 
Market Rasen 2.06
Seven runners here for this class 2 2m 7F handicap hurdle. There’s shouldn’t be much between Galileo Silver and Jersey Wonder. There was a length between them in favour of the former and on 2lb worse terms may just confirm the form. Jonjo O’Neill has his team of jumpers in fine shape and Apache Creek bounced back to form at 14/1 at Warwick last time and despite a 4lb rise can too be competitive. David Pipe is having an excellent summer and his Roman De Senam reverts to hurdles from a 7lb lower mark and shouldn’t be dismissed. Top weight Ask Paddington is chasing a four timer having risen 17lb for those victories but is unproven at three miles. A tough handicap with no stand out bet but maybe a small wager on Sam Thomas’s improver Galileo Silver in a first time visor to confirm recent placings with Jersey Wonder.
 
GALILEO SILVER 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill
 
Newbury 2.21
Just eight go to post for the two mile class 2 handicap. There’s certainly no stand out bet here as claims can reasonably be made for all. Three of these ran in the 2m 5F handicap at Royal Ascot with Going Gone coming out a length too good from Reshoun with Rock Eagle three and a half lengths further behind. Going Gone is a couple of pounds better off today but wouldn’t be certain to confirm the form with Ian William’s Reshoun. Others with chances include Tom Ward’s Diamond Bay, a runner up at Salisbury last time out and bottom weight Auriferous. I’ll take a chance though on the nine year old and top weight here Withhold trained by Harry and Roger Charlton and owned by shrewd gambler Tony Bloom. His best days are no doubt behind him (he won the 2017 Cesarewitch at Newmarket and 2018 Northumberland Plate at Newcastle) but showed enough following a 245 day absence when 6th of 7 at Chester behind subsequent winner Soapy Stevens to suggest there’s another payday in him and in a race where nothing stands out can be competitive. He’s won this actual event before and was a good third in it last year and as always expect him to be ridden prominently from the front which as there appears to be no other pacesetter may allow him to get an easy lead.
 
WITHHOLD 1 point each way @ 15/2 888sport 1/5th 123
 
Market Rasen 2.41
A fair turnout considering the likely lightning fast conditions with eleven going to post for this class 2 handicap hurdle over the minimum trip of two miles. The two improvers are at the head of the market in the shape of Dr Newland’s Galata Bridge and Gerald Stephen Quinn’s Cirque Royal. The former comes here on the back of a very impressive win at Huntingdon back in May for which he’s been pushed up 12lb whilst Cirque Royal is making his handicap debut having won novice hurdles at Perth and Kelso in May. He easily dismissed Ted Hastings on the latter course and that one has easily won at Cartmel giving the form a boost. He’ll do for me. Bottom weight Caramelised also comes into the reckoning for Alan King but it’s Cirque Royal for me who started his career with the Godolphin operation at Charlie Appleby’s and looks one of the day’s better bets.
 
CIRQUE ROYAL 3 points win @ 4/1 bet365
 
Newbury 2.56
A competitive contest next up for the group 3 Hackwood Stakes run over 6F with a decent field of fourteen going to post. Last years winner Happy Romance looks likely to run well having kept group one company on both his starts this season. The best in at the weights today is David Evans’ Wokingham winner Rohaan who’s yet another with claims. Man Of Promise should appreciate stepping up in trip and although he carries a 3lb penalty is another who can be competitive. Owen Burrows won one of the feature races last Saturday and his Minzaal looks likely to be thereabouts and is the tentative selection in a race that look open enough.
 
MINZAAL 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Market Rasen 3.14
The Summer Plate Handicap Chase is run over 2m 5F 89yds and this year has attracted a competitive field of fourteen chasers. Fergal O’Brian’s Mortlach is unbeaten in three starts over fences and has obvious claims whilst last year’s easy winner Francis Du Berlais is only 2lb higher this time around and should be thereabouts. It’s a wide open contest mind and I’ll play a couple of recent winners small each way against the field. Texard jumped well when bolting up at Uttoxeter in the week coasting home by some 28L and if in the same form can go well under Philip Armson for David Pipe. He’ll be my main play here whilst I’ll also have a small each way wager on bottom weight Rostello trained by Dr Richard Newland at Claines in Worcestershire. He too was an easy wide margin week earlier in the week and like Texard has to carry a 5lb penalty but such was the ease of the success that he (like Texard) will be going up more than that when re-assessed next week.
 
TEXARD 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
ROSTELLO 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 1234
 
Newbury 3.30
The usual 5F cavalry charge for the two year old’s is up next with twenty one juveniles spread across the course for the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes with £200k guaranteed in prize money that goes right down to tenth place. 7lb clear on official ratings is the David O’Meara trained Maria Bramwell who brings easily the best form to the table and represents the best bet of the day. She followed up wins at Thirsk and Sandown (listed National Stakes) with an excellent third in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot behind the smart Dramatised. As a 22,000 guineas purchase as a yearling she gets a reasonable weight here and with a fair draw in stall 11 will be hard to beat. On the subject of the draw it pays to be in the higher numbers with the last ten winners all berthed in double figure stalls. Rogue Spirit looks speedy and from stall 18 can give Tom Clover and Jack Mitchell a good spin. Richard Hannon has an excellent record in this race and saddles five runners today. The best of which may well be Miami Girl who’s berthed in stall 16 but is actually held by the selection on Royal Ascot running. With luck in running ( I was very keen on Chipotle in this race last year but his chance was undone by a poor ride) I fully expect Maria Bramwell to go very close and she’s the bet.
 
MARIA BRAMWELL 3 points win @ 11/4 bet365
 
Curragh 3.45
Eight go to post for the Irish Oaks run over a mile and a half and we have a warm favourite here in the John and Thady Gosden trained Emily Upjohn. She was arguably unlucky when fluffing the start in the Epsom version but finished well to go down by the shortest of short heads to Tuesday. That form is far superior to any of her rivals, the best of whom may well be the Ribblesdale winner Magical Lagoon trained by Jessie Harrington. Aiden O’Brien saddles three here with the best being Toy who is the pick of Ryan Moore. She would need to significantly step up on what she’s shown this season mind and this first prize should be making its way to Clarehaven Stables at Newmarket. She’s at prohibitive odds mind so there’s no betting angle for me.
 
Late news - Emily Upjohn misses the race due to travel complications
 
 

Just the one winner (7/1) for a daily loss of 6.6 points.  Hope everyone's found a winner or two.

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

256 newb 

Rohaan   8.9  6/1 

Minzaal   8.7  7.4

Chil chil   8.6   14/1 

Close,at the top ....I'll try 3x 5pt wins

 

 

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

330 newb 

Maria Branwell  9.2  9/4 

Miami girl   8.8  10.0 

Rogue spirit   8.6 4/1 

Maria branwell will be hard to beat but the 2nd and 3rd rated are no pushovers...I'll try 8pt win top rated ...2 pt win miami 

 

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

235 curr 

Mr wagyu  9.0  11/2 

Gustavus weston  8.7  21.0 

Lord dudley  8.5  14/1 

Coumshinguam  8.5 7/1 

5pt ew top 2 

In the great words of meatloaf ...2 outta 3 ain't bad ?...+35.00 on the day 

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Bronxie

Bronxie

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Bang on said:

A crazy 8 meetings today, I have so far just done  to VERY SMALL STAKES 10 x EW doubles, and for fun a £1 ew acca on the following.

2.29 Cart - Vocal Duke - 11/2 ( 4 places ) - Top trainer and jockey at the course, usually reliable when running here, is a CD winner.

2.41 M.Ras - Castel Gandolfo - 12/1 - Trainer Fergal O'Brien who is in very ggod form has 2 in the race and the stable jockey rides this one

4.01 Ripon - Garden Oasis  - 6/1 - Has won off 7lbs higher and is a 3 x CD winner.

5.00 M.Ras - Soldier on Parade - 8/1 - has dropped 13lbs in the hcp in the last 5 runs. Is a 3 x CD winner.

8.45 Donc - One more Try - 11/2 - has dropped 8lbs in just 3 runs, should benefit from reappearance run, 2nd top course trainer.

I will be having a few singles but this is just a very small stakes bet as I could see a reason for them to run well... and they are races with at least 3 places available... something becoming quite rare these days.

This has provided me great entertainment, thank you. Four places from four, very unlucky not to have a couple of winners. Good luck in the last!

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