Racing Chat - Saturday June 25th

[The Brigadier]

Newcastle 1.50

A dozen sprinters contest the opening race of ITV’s eight races today in a 6F class 2 handicap. The race has an open feel about it with Richard Fahey’s Strike Red the one that appeals. He rides the North Eastern track well winning two of his three races here and comes here on the back of a good 4th (beaten under a length)in a decent class 2 handicap at Hamilton. Only 4lb higher than his course and distance victory last September he looks the one to be with here. Michael Scudamore’s Rolfe Rembrandt and bottom weight Be Proud look dangers but Strike Red will do for me ridden today by the more than capable Oisin Orr.

 

STRIKE RED 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 2.05

Eleven two year old fillies have declared for the listed Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies Stakes run over 6F of the July course. George Boughey’s Believing is an interesting runner who ran runner up to the smart Mawj here on the Rowley course on her debut and landed the odds when slowly away at Wolverhampton 9 days later. She again had issues with the stalls at Royal Ascot when playing up for the Albany eventually been withdrawn. She’s smart but can we trust her at the gate? For that reason I’m with the Richard Hannnon trained Minnetonka who spread eagled her field on her racecourse debut at Salisbury a fortnight ago looking to all and sundry like a pattern performer and she’s worth a thick bet today. Ralph Beckett’s Lezoo impressed on her debut but that was at Bath, hardly a hotbed for juvenile talent whilst George Boughey’s other runner Malrescia is chasing a hat trick following wins at Hamilton and Lingfield. Minnetonka made a big impression on me at Salisbury and looks the one to be with today with Jim Crowley taking over from Pat Dobbs who’s got a full book of rides at Windsor this afternoon.

 

MINNETONKA 3 points win @ 11/4 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

Newcastle 2.25

A dozen sprinters assemble for the group 3 Chipchase Stakes. Glen Shiel has some fair track form (3 wins from 5 starts here) although hasn’t actually raced here since August 2020. He’s the best in at todays weights and looks likely to run a big race under usual pilot Hollie Doyle. Karl Burke’s Spycatcher is another for the shortlist dropping back to 6F and he has some good sprint form with first time cheek pieces employed today. The one I fancy though is one of the three three year olds in the field in the William Haggas trained Sense Of Duty. She was backed off the boards when winning a listed contest at Haydock last time, a race that has worked out particularly well with the runner up Flotus going on to place in the group one Commonwealth Cup and the third Benefit winning since. She has to step up again to win this group 3 contest but looks highly progressive and on her first all weather start is the one to beat.

 

SENSE OF DUTY 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.40

A disappointing turnout of just five and a weak race in prospect for the listed Fred Archer Stakes. Charlie Appleby sets a poser by running both Kemari, who flopped last time out at York and Rebels Romance who’s yet to run on the turf. The latter is the pick of William Buick so presumably the more fancied but I’m happy to take the pair on. I’m not a fan of Stowell for whom it appears Frankie Dettori has been jocked off by the Gosden’s and outsider Something Enticing has 15lb to find with top rated Rebels Romance. A matter of elimination leaves me with the 2020 winner Universal Order trained by David Simcock and he’s the tentative selection with Callum Shepherd in the saddle.

 

UNIVERSAL ORDER 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Newcastle 2.55

Run over just over two miles this is the Northumberland Plate Consolation handicap for horses that didn’t make it into the big one. Top weight Evaluation missed the big gig by one and tops the weight today looking the one they all have to beat. Let go by Sir Michael Stoute for just 30,000 guineas this ex Queen owned four year old has been a revelation since joining the Lanarkshire stable of Keith Dagleish winning four staying handicaps on the turf rising 22lb in the process. This son of Ascot Gold Cup winner Estimate ticks a lot of the boxes for this contest and he’s the one I want to be with. Hugo Palmer’s Zoffee is an interesting runner winning at Carlisle last time and should relish the step up two furlongs here and as a 132 rated hurdler could still be well treated off of 84 on the flat. Andrew Balding saddles a brace of runners who on their best form hold claims in Auriferous and Mellow Magic but it’s Evaluation for me with Callum Rodriquez, who’s ridden him on three of his four victories this season in the saddle.

 

EVALUATION 2 points each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 3.15

Next up at HQ is the group 3 7F Criterion Stakes where seven useful horses will be making their way to post. The key race here is the John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock from four weeks ago. Winner Pogo had Laneqash a nose back in second and Sunray Major a further half a length back in fourth. Pogo has to carry a 3lb penalty today which puts him at a disadvantage with his two rivals who both have claims today as Laneqash was having his first run for 246 days and Sunray Major met trouble in running. Both have decent chances but I’m more interested in the two three year olds here. Tom Clover’s Bass Player was 2 1/4L behind Hugo Palmers Ever Given last time out in listed company at Epsom and may struggle to turn the form around. The form has been boosted by the win of the runner up Oscula in listed company at Carlisle earlier this week and although this represents a step up in grade Ever Given is only officially 4lb off of the top rated Laneqash here and is very much an improver. Skybet and Betfred are paying a third place here despite only seven runners so if you can get on with either of those firms let’s go each way.

 

EVER GIVEN 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5 123

 

Newcastle 3.30

The day’s big handicap is the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap or as known by many as the Pitman’s Derby. A race I’ve always enjoyed over the years maybe not as much nowadays mind that it’s run on the all weather. Twenty have declared and as you would expect there’s an open feel about the race. Rajinsky would be on my short list with his recent Chester Cup form working out so well but stall 16 will make things difficult for him although horses have won from out there over the past including last years winner Nicholas T from stall 17. Alan King’s top stayer Trueshan heads the weights but this is a prep run for the Goodwood Cup and was beaten in this last year off of 113 (if taking his 5lb claimer’s allowance into account) and has to race off of a 7lb higher mark here and is overlooked. Andrew Balding saddles his progressive stayer Valley Forge who is another drawn out wide and has no experience of the all weather. If you like him then surely you must give a chance to the Mark and Charlie Johnstone trained Golden Flame who was beaten a head by him at Haydock in May and is now 2lb better off with his subsequent defeat put down to not staying 2m 4F at Royal Ascot. At four times the price he has to be part of the staking plan. Island Brave has had excuses for recent defeats and was third in this last year off of a 2lb higher mark so is another outsider who can outrun his odds. Sir Mark Prescott is still not really firing on all cylinders but saddles Summer’s Knight here who was highly progressive last season and has claims from a nice draw in stall 5. A tough handicap and I’ll play a couple small each way in Summers Knight and Golden Flame with the additional place terms.

 

SUMMERS KNIGHT 1 point each way @ 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

GOLDEN FLAME 1 point each way @ 25/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

Curragh 3.45

Aidan O’Brien has thrown a spanner into the works here by taking out all of his colts (he had 10 entered up until the 4 day declaration stage) and supplemented at a cost of 75k his Epsom Oaks winner Tuesday. A multiple winner of this race O’Brien knows what it takes to win and I’ll take her to thwart the colts. The only negative is if the ground was to turn soft as there is a band of rain threatening the track over the weekend (although the clerk of the course seems to feel it’s likely to hit Saturday evening). The big threat to Tuesday is obviously the unlucky in running Derby third Westover who will now be ridden by Colin Keane rather than Rob Hornby who had a torrid run at Epsom when getting stopped in his run from a poor draw. Unless the ground changed dramatically I feel these two will battle the finish out with preference for the fairer sex.

 

TUESDAY 3 points win @ 11/8 bet365

 

[black rabbit]

summers knight     1/5 pt ew 18/1      exrta places in places   7       PLACED EW

pogo   3 15 new   1/4 pt win 8/1    WON

graphite  3 30 new   1/5 pt ew   40/1  UNPLACED

midrarr  1 15  new    1/4 pt win  12/1    2ND

 

 

 

 

 

 

P/L  +  129.25  pt 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by black rabbit