Racing Chat - Wednesday June 15th

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 2.30

Twenty one two year off fillies assemble for the group 2 Queen Mary. We have the usual Royal Ascot conundrum of a lightly raced well touted Wesley Ward filly in Love Reigns who blitzed her field on her debut at Keeneland winning by 9 3/4L. She’s obviously smart but at the likely price I’ll take her on here as she does take a fair chunk out of the market. I’ve been waiting for Karl Burke’s Dramatised to re-appear as she impressed me when bolting up at Newmarket on her debut back in April. She pulled four lengths clear that day from Malrescia who’s won twice since. She’s the bet here for me from stall 17 which hopefully will be an advantage although as always at Royal Ascot we don’t really know where the best place to be is until we get into the meeting. The best outsider for me is the Simon and Ed Crisford trained All The Time owned by the Royal Ascot Club so one would think that this has been the target for a while. She came home an easy 5L winner at Nottingham on her debut and although that form has yet to be tested looked smart that day and with the extra places available is worth a small each way saver.

 

DRAMATISED 2 points each way 9/2 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

ALL THE TIME 1/2 point each way 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 3.05

The group 2 Queens Vase is run over 14F and has attracted a dozen three year olds this year whom are all trying this trip for the first time. Charlie Appleby saddles a brace of runners in Hafit, ridden by James Doyle’s and Nahaani ridden by William Buick who presumably has had the pick of the pair and to my eyes is the most likely winner today. The third string of Appleby’s in the Epsom Derby things didn’t go to plan for him as he was affected by the fireworks going off just before the start of the classic and missed the break. He eventually ran on to finish 7th with his rider that day Adam Kirby stating afterwards he felt he could have finished fourth if things had fallen right for him. As long as this race doesn’t come too soon for him he looks sure to be thereabouts. Roger Varian saddles a very interesting runner in Eldar Eldarov who’s unbeaten in two starts and steps up half a mile today. He took the scalp of a smart sort of William Haggas’s last time at Newcastle and looks a threat to the selection.

 

NAHAANI 2 points win 9/2 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.40

A disappointing turnout of only five for the group one Prince Of Wale’s Stakes with the Japanese challenger Shahryar a fascinating contender. Last seen winning the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March from Yibir proving that he can win after travelling and has been working well at Roger Varian’s stables in Newmarket recently. He’ll have to be on his A game mind to beat the Sir Michael Stoute trained favourite Bay Bridge who was not fully tuned up when an impressive winner at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes on his re-appearance last month. That was a terrific effort and he’ll be very hard to beat under Ryan Moore who knows him so well. Lord North won this two years ago but was behind Joseph O’Brien’s globe trotting State Of Rest at The Curragh last time in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and might struggle to turn the form around whilst French raider Grand Glory, although unbeaten this season will need to step up again. An intriguing race but I find it hard to oppose Bay Bridge who looked the real deal at Sandown.

 

BAY BRIDGE 3 points win 11/8 William Hill

 

Ascot 4.20

The Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes is up next with eight four year old fillies taking centre stage. The highest rated amongst them is German raider Novemba but like the French challenger Sibilant Spirit is overlooked as the pair prefer softer ground. Saffron Beach hasn’t been seen since running a decent 4th in the Dubai Turf in March at Meydan and has to shoulder a 5lb penalty here for her Group one victory at Newmarket last Autumn. Mother Earth is a consistent filly but I didn’t like her latest effort when easy to back in the Lockinge and wears cheek pieces for the first time today. At the prices I can let her go. A matter of elimination more than anything ends up with the William Haggas filly Bashkirova who arrives in top form having won at Epsom and as this is only her 7th career start may actually still be improving. I’ll take her to win this.

 

BASHKIROVA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365

 

Ascot 5.00

Next up is the maximum 30 runner Royal Hunt Cup, a handicap run over the straight mile. It’s hard to know where the best place to be drawn is so I’m looking for the most likely winner and let’s hope it’s drawn well. Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King bumped into a handicap snip in Real World last year and should go well although is 4lb higher now so can hardly be called well in. Charlie Hills’ Dark Shift is 2lb well in here and with James McDonald riding is another with a live chance. The pair I like are both trained by Newmarket handler Roger Varian and I’ll take them against the field. Legend Of Dubai looked useful when winning on his re-appearance at Newmarket with the third that day winning twice since. The winner himself has been shunted up 11lb for the victory but could still be ahead of his mark with his breeding suggesting he could be top class (by Dubawi out of the smart Speedy Boarding). The other Varian runner is Greatgadian who’s won two 10F all weather Chelmsford handicaps since returning this season having been gelded. The horse he beat last time has won well since and Ray Dawson who was on board then keeps the ride. The pair are drawn together and I’ll back both to small stakes each way with the extra places on offer.

 

GREATGADIAN 1 point each way 20/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456

LEGEND OF DUBAI 1 point each way 9/1 Betfred 1/5th 123456

 

Ascot 5.35

Another big field, this time 24 go to post for the listed Windsor Castle Stakes run over 5F for two year olds. Warm favourite is the Aidan O’Brien trained Little Big Bear, an easy maiden winner at Naas last month on softish ground. He’s yet to encounter ground as fast as this and at the prices I’m happy enough to looks elsewhere for some each way value. Andrew Balding won this a couple of years ago with Tactical for The Queen and appears to have another big chance with his Ida Salman Al Khalifa owned Chateau. He came late and fast to to win at Beverley last time having improved plenty for his debut run under William Buick and with Buick retaining the ride can reward an each way bet. The Gosden runner Far Shot and Varian runner Bolt Action bath come here with a recent victory under their belts and they too can be competitive.

 

CHATEAU 1 point each way 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 6.10

Day two concludes with the twenty runner Kensington Palace Handicap run over a mile but this time, unlike the Hunt Cup on the round course. Another competitive looking handicap with Joseph O’Brien’s improver Haziya heading the market. He has obvious claims but I’m taking a couple against the field from big Newmarket stables. Saeed Bin Suroor saddles three here and the one that could be well handicapped is surely White Moonlight ridden today by Daniel Tudhope. A dual winner back in the autumn of 2019 she came back from that 971 day absence when needing the run to finish a credible third at Chelmsford a fortnight ago to prepare her for this contest. She took a fierce hold that day and hopefully with the freshness out of her and off of what may well be a workable mark of 92 can go close. The only negative for her may well be the wide draw but I'm hoping her class can tell. 

 

WHITE MOONLIGHT 2 points each way 7/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

Royal hunt cup ...this is one of those impossible 30 runner races but has the chance to win big with tricasts paying hundreds for even 10p a line so gotta have a go !!

Cruyff turn  8.9 22/1 8 places 

Rebel territory  8.7 18/1 7 places 

Totally charming 8.4  12/1 7places 

Magical morning 7.9 14/1 

5pt ew top 3 ...12x 0.5 forecasts top 4 ....24x10p tricasts top 4