Racing Chat - Saturday 16th April

[The Brigadier]

Musselburgh 1.32

An open looking class 3 three year old handicap over a mile with 10 runners going to post. With half the field marking their handicap debuts a very close watch on the market is essential here. Mark and Charlie Johnstone saddles three in top weight Value Theory (Andrew Breslin), Spirit Catcher (Joe Fanning) and Qipao (Ben Curtis). The best of which may well be Spirit Catcher but it’s hard to assess to be accurate. Dirty old town is interesting having his first run for Grant Tuer having been sold out of George Boughey’s stable for £100k and making his handicap debut but the one I like is the Karl Burke trained Bullet Force. Owned by Amo Racing and ridden by their retained jockey Rossa Ryan he showed some good handicap form a s a two year last Autumn in class 2 nurseries and was last seen when out of his depth (went off 100/1) in the group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster. He’s already shown his liking for this track by winning his maiden here over 7F last August and he may be the each way value in the race. 

BULLET FORCE 1 point each way @ 7/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

Newbury 1.50

Only 7 go to post for the Group 3 John Porter Stakes run over 1m 4F. The drying ground may not suit the likes of the penalised William Haggas runner Ilaraab and the horse he beat when last seen over course and distance in the Ralph Beckett trained Max Vega. My two against the field are the impressive Doncaster winner Raymond Tusk who has conditions to suit and the Mark and Charlie Johnstone raider Thunderous. Preference is just for the latter who is the highest rated runner in the field and has an interesting jockey booking in Christophe Soumillon on board. Gelded since we last saw him this five year old gelding is still relatively lightly raced (this being his 10th career start) for his age and if straight enough (he has won first time out) could be the one they all have to beat. 

THUNDEROUS 2 points win @ 7/2 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

Musselburgh 2.04

Another class 2 handicap but this one’s over 7F and for four year old’s and upwards. It has an open look about it with the in form David and Nicola Barron’s Another Batt holding claims following on from a mid division effort in his re-appearance in the Lincoln. Gometra Ginty has a good strike rate at the Scottish track but it’s last years runner up Marshal Dan that catches my eye. Trained by the under rated Oxfordshire based handler Heather Main he ran a screamer last year when going down by under a length to Elton College and can race today off of a 2lb lower mark. Ben Curtis gets the leg up for the first time on this Lawman 7 year old and in a trappy handicap he looks each way value. 

MARSHAL DAN 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

Newbury 2.25

A dozen three year old fillies assemble for this years renewal of the Dubai Duty Free Stakes (known still as the Fred Darling Stakes), a Group 3 contest run over 7F and a reminisced 1000 Guineas trial. Charlie Appleby had had a terrific week with his runners since Monday finishing 15114251131 including taking the Craven with Native Trail and unleashing a serious Derby contender in New London at Newmarket. His filly Wild Beauty returns here and was a top two year old winning three times including a grade one contest in North America at Woodbine in September. Beaten 3 1/2L twice by champion two year old filly Inspiral she brings the best form to the table and if she’s trained on will be hard to beat for the deadly combo of Appleby and Buick who himself has won on 7 of his last 11 rides. Jumbly is a lovely type who won three of her four starts as a juvenile with her best effort coming over course and distance in the listed Radley Stakes on soft ground. I wonder whether a drying surface will suit her. The best alternative to the favourite and worth a small ew saver bet is the Andrew Balding trained Majestic Glory who although 5L behind the selection on her final start has actually beaten her a length in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes in August. There are other promising fillies but this is Wild Beauty’s to lose I believe. 

WILD BEAUTY 2 points win @ 11/4 Paddy Power

MAJESTIC GLORY 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

Musselburgh 2.39

Next up is a £50k guaranteed 5F class 2 handicap with 11 runners declared. There’s some old names taking part here with the likes of Copper Knight and Dakota Gold making their seasonal re-appearance. The Barron’s Zarzyni comes here in fine form off of the all weather and wears cheek pieces for the first time, he looks likely to be in the shake up. If there is one horse here who may be better than his current mark then surely it’s the Horse Watcher’s Raasel trained by Mick Appleby. He ran up a five timer in 5F handicaps last Autumn rising 21lb in the process and although he most certainly wouldn’t want the ground to dry up (his wins came on good or soft ground) he may just be better than a handicapper. With no knowledge of his fitness he’s worth a small investment. 

RAASEL 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Newbury 3.00

A small field of six go to post for this years renewal of the 7F Group 3 Greenham Stakes. Joint top rated is the Ralph Beckett trained Angel Bleu who turned into a smart juvenile winning his last three starts in Group 2 and 1 company on soft ground. He does have form earlier in the season on better ground but really found his way in the mud and with the ground drying he’s opposable today. I’ll take him on with Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power who will be ridden today by Frenchman Christophe Soumillon. He has to prove his stamina mind as he hasn’t raced beyond 6F as a juvenile when winning 4 of his 6 starts including the Group 1 Middle Park stakes at Newmarket in September. His dam was a 10F turf winner and so there’s enough hope on the breeding side to suggest he’ll see out the seventh furlong. Lusail has only 2lb on official ratings to find here and could be more of a threat on ground that will suit. 

PERFECT POWER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Musselburgh 3.14

The feature race at the Scottish track today is the Betway Queen’s Cup, a 1m 6F heritage handicap that has filled with a maximum field of 14. Mark Johnstone has won the last two renewals and (with his son Charlie) saddles three here today. Last years winner Themaxwecan is amongst the trio and with Ben Curtis who rode him last year on board off of the same mark could easily be a player here. State Of Bliss and Soapy Stevens are the other two Johnstone runners with preference for the latter who will be ridden by Franny Norton, his regular rider and if in the form of his Haydock win last June could run well. Top weight Zero Ten is a very interesting runner for Grand National winning trainer Emmet Mullins. Last seen when 5th in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak in France last October this represents a drop in class on his flat handicap debut and Mullins has booked useful 7lb apprentice Benoit De La Sayette to ride. Also taking a drop in class is the Ian Williams trained Enemy who was last seen running fourth to Manobo in a Group 3 in Dubai in February with one of today’s rivals Island Brave only a neck behind. The latter looks over priced here at four times the price of Enemy on that run. The selection though is Sir Rumi owned by Amo Racing and trained by Richard Hannon. His season re-appearance (his first since being gelded) suggests that he’s well handicapped off of 94 as he was sandwiched that day by horses rated 104 and 105. He does have to prove his stamina today stepping up in trip but if he stays he can go very well. 

SIR RUMI 1 point each way @ 6/1 Betfred 1/5^th 12345

 

Newbury 3.35

Seventeen go to post for the Spring Cup, a handicap run over the straight mile of the Berkshire course. The key form race for this is the Lincoln from Doncaster last month. The Crisford’s Saleymm finished runner up that day and must have decent claims here but it was the horse that finished half a length behind that one that is my strong fancy today. Rogue Bear missed the kick and was plum last after a furlong but ran on to such an extent on the wrong side to where all the action was that it’s not far wrong to say he was an unlucky loser that day. Off of the same handicap mark he looks sure to be competitive with David Egan riding for Tom Clover. Just behind him in the Lincoln was the William Haggas horse Irish Admiral and further back was the disappointing Charlie Appleby runner Modern News. I’ll be surprised if either are good enough to turn the form around with the selection. Top weight Migration hails from the David Menuisier stable who had a double at Chantilly on Wednesday. Ryan Moore rides and he is a lovely type but might just find the ground too fast for him. An outsider that interests me is the Richard Hannon trained Etonian who is lightly raced but has a touch of class about him and the fact he still holds an entry in the Group one Lockinge stakes is a tip in itself. For me though this is all about Rogue Bear. 

ROGUE BEAR 3 points win 7/2 Bet365

ETONIAN 1/4 point each way @ 20/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 12345

 

 

[black rabbit]

teodolina   3 35 newb    1/5 pt win  25/1    [ has drifted to 40/1 will now have 1/5 pt place also ] 

miss carol ann  2 25 newb   1/4 pt win  10/1 

the turpinator   3 35  newb  1/5 pt win 16/1 

coeur de lion  4 29 hay   1/5 pt win  25/1 

first impression  3 19  hay  1/5 pt win 10/1 

he's a hardy bloke  4 50 fairy  1/5 pt win   20/1 

 

 

 

P/L   + 123.25  pts 

Edited April 16, 2022 by black rabbit
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