Irish Racing - EW betting

[Xtc12]

BOG Prices for above : 4\1, 16\1, 13\2, 5\1, 10\1, 5\1, 9\1 respectively 

[Xtc12]

Navan : Seeingisbelieving 1st @ 5\1, Secret Rock 4th @ 13\2, Unchained Melody 3rd @ 10\1, Everylittlestep 3rd @ 5\1, Drumroll 1st @ 9\1

Limerick

14.50 Friends N Commerce  1/5 1-3

15.25 Crowsatedappletart  1/5 1-4

16.00 Alpesh Amin  1/5 1-4

16.35 Hanoi Jane  1/5  1-5

17.10 Katherine  1/5 1-3

Naas

13.57 Night Sparkle 1/5 1-3

15.07 Doyen Ta Win  1/5 1-3

15.42 Crafty Gael  1/5  1-5

16.17 Clear the Clouds  1/5 1-6

16.52 Morrie in the Quarry  1/5  1-6

17.22 He's My Hero  1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

BOG : Limerick - 12/1, 5/1, 7/1, 13/2, 14/1

Naas - 8/1, 5/1, 5/1, 6/1, 15/2, 8/1

[Xtc12]

Limerick : Friends N Commerce 3rd @ 12\1, Crowsatedappletart 1st @ 5\1, Alpesh Amin 1st @ 7\1, Hanoi Jane 5th @ 13\2

Naas : Night Sparkle 3rd @ 8\1, Doyen Ta Win 2nd @ 5\1, Clear the Clouds 5th @ 6\1, He's My Hero 2nd @ 20\1

Dundalk

17.30 Dandy Lichious 1/5 1-3

18.00 Yester 1/5 1-3

18.30 Sea Oscar 1/5 1-4

19.00 Expound 1/5 1-3

20.00 Glazunov 1/5 1-3

20.30 Miss Upbeat 1/5 1-4

Wexford

16.10 Ik's Man 1/5 1-3

16.40 Rocco's Inspiration 1/5 1-3

18.10 Glamorgan Duke 1/5 1-3

19.10 Trickey trix 1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

BOG Dundalk : 4/1. 5/1, 9/2, 9/1, 7/1, 7/1

Wexford : 11/4, 13/2, 6/1, 12/1

[Xtc12]

Dundalk : Yester 3rd @ 5\1, Sea Oscar NR, Expound 3rd @ 9\1

Wexford : IK's Man 2nd @ 11\4 

Leopardstown

14.00 Warm Heart @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

14.25 Caracci @ 11\2  1/4 1-2

15.10 Zarinsk @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

15.45 Alder @ 10\1  1/4 1-2

16.20 Dubawi Spectre @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

16.55 Cheers Again @ 9\1  1/5 1-4

17.30 Notforalongtime @ 13\2  1/5 1-4

Downpatrick

14.15 Aliunde @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

14.50 Warm In Gorey @ 13\2  1/5 1-4

15.25 Queenie Newall @ 11\1  1/5  1-4

16.00 My Design @ 6\1  1/5 1-4

16.35 So Ladylike @ 14\1  1/5 1-3

17.10 Custers Mistake @ 9\2  1/5 1-3

 

[Xtc12]

[Xtc12]

Started this a year ago and after 1990 bets it has shown a profit of 397.86 for a ROI of 2.00%. All bets were 5Pts EW.

After digging a bit deeper into the results from the 26 Irish Tracks it showed that 14 of the tracks ended up in profit. Punchestown, Fairyhouse and Killarney all had big losses. Maybe this has something to do with festivals being held at the courses. (Just a thought)

Seven of the tracks had over 100 bets, 4 of them ended up with a loss, ranging from 112.59 to 392.13.

Naas, Cork and Dundalk (the meeting with most bets - 258) ended up with a profit of 378.08, 194.13 & 85 respectively.

The results for the year appear in the previous post, now if I just follow the tracks that showed profit (hindsight is a great thing) the table would look like this :

**The question now is, should I continue to follow all the tracks or just tose that show profit ????

[harry_rag]

Big question! Can you find a good reason why your selection method should be profitable at some tracks and not others? I'd want to be convinced it wasn't just random before I changed the approach, in case I ended up just betting at the profitable tracks in time for regression to the mean to kick in (more winners at the "bad" tracks and more losers at the "good" ones).

I think sometimes you have a sample size that is just about big enough to be meaningful overall but when you start breaking it down into smaller categories you end up observing things that are statistically insignificant. I've never done it but I always wonder if my data might tell me that players with an odd number of letters in their name were more profitable than those with an even number, or short names v long names, but I'd obviously assume that was an anomaly. When you look at categories that could be relevant (like courses for instance) it's harder to tell whether you should trust what the stats are telling you.

[Xtc12]

Leopardstown : Warm heart 2nd @ 11\2, Zarinsk 3rd @ 7\1, Alder, Dubawi Spectre, Cheers Again, Notforalongtime all NR's

Downpatrick : Aliunde 3rd @ 6\1, Warm In Gorey 2nd @ 13\2, My Design 2nd @ 6\1

Leopardstown

13.55 All Time Great @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

14.30 Walsingham @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

15.05 New Hill @ 12\1  1/5 1-5

15.40 Power Under Me @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

16.50 Superior Force @ 8\1  1/5 1-4

17.22 Leclerc @ 11\2  1/5 1-5

17.52 Wayne R Walker @ 14\1  1/5 1-5

[Xtc12]

Leopardstown : New Hill 4th @ 12\1 

Bellewstown

13.20 Grey Leader 1/5 1-3

13.55 Givemefive 1/5 1-3

14.30 Scarlet Dancer 1/5 1-4

15.05 Escaping the Jungle 1/4 1-2

15.40 Iva batt 1/5 1-3

16.15 Bolero 1/5 1-5

16.50 Douglas DC 1/5 1-3

Clonmel 

16.00 Teescomponentsyess 1/5 1-3

16.35 Sean Says 1/5 1-3

17.10 Rebel Early 1/5 1-3

17.45 Feu De Bresil 1/5 1-3

18.15 Bint Freya 1/5 1-3

18.45 Millstream Lady 1/5 1-4

[Xtc12]

BOG Prices : Bellewstown - 20\1, 4\1, 11\2, 7\2, 4\1, 8\1, 5\1

Clonmel - 8\1, 12\1, 9\1, 5\1, 10\1, 5\1

[Xtc12]

Bellewstown : Escaping the Jungle 2nd @ 7\2, Bolero 4th @ 8\1, Douglas DC 2nd @ 5\1

Clonmel : Rebel Early 3rd @ 10\1, Feu De Bresil 1st @ 5\1, Bint Freya 2nd @ 10\1

Cork

13.15 You Send me @  5\1  1/5 1-3

13.45 Zaragoza @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

14.20 Aussie Girl @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

14.55 All Lies Ahead @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

15.30 My Eyes Adore You @ 10\1  1/5 1-3

16.40 Harrys Hill @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

17.15 Two Stars @ 13\2  1/5 1-3

Fairyhouse

14.10 Flamborough @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

14.45 Vis Ta Loi @ 25\1  1/4 1-2

15.20 Instit @ 16\1  1/4 1-2

16.30 Seabank Bistro @ 6\1  1/5 1-4

17.05 Risk Belle @ 5\1  1/5 1-5

17.40 Cuta Des As @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

Cork : You Send Me 1st @ 5\1, Zaragoza NR, Aussie Girl 4th @ 5\1, All Lies Ahead NR, Two Stars 3rd @ 13\2

Fairyhouse : Instit 1st @ 16\1, Seabank Bistro 3rd @ 6\1, Risk Belle 1st @ 5\1, Cuta Des As 3rd @ 9\1

Cork

13.45 All About Lucy @ 8\1  1/5 1-3

14.20 Sole Pretender @ 9\2  1/5 1-3

14.55 Changing the Rules @ 16\1  1/5 1-3

15.30 Ronald Pump @ 8\1  1/4 1-2

16.05 Lucky Max @ 13\2  1/5 1-4

16.40 Atlantian @ 13\2  1/5 1-5

17.15 Captains Pick @ 10\1  1/5 1-3

Fairyhouse

13.25 Classic Lord @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

14.00 Ted Hastings @ 6\1  1/5 1-5

14.35 Princess Zoe @ 13\2  1/5 1-3

15.10 The Gunner Yeats @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

15.45 Hercule Du Seuil @ 8\1  1/4 1-2

16.20 Whiskeywealth @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

Cork : All About Lucy 1st @ 8\1, Sole Pretender 3rd @ 9\2, Lucky Max 4th @ 10\1, Atlantian 5th @ 13\2

Fairyhouse : Hercule Du Seuil 1st @ 8\1

Gowran Park

16.40 Everylittlestep @ 5\1  1/5 1-5

17.10 Mellow Magic @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

17.45 Astrophysicist @ 10\1  1/5 1-5

18.15 Kermiya @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

18.45 Free Flow @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

19.15 Party Central @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

 

[Xtc12]

Gowran Park - Abandoned

Ballinrobe 

16.50 Emotional Damage @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

17.20 Ossifer Hops @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

17.50 Wee Charlie @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

18.20 Optional Mix @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

18.50 Milajess @ 6\1  1/5 1-5

19.50 Lucid Dreams @ 8\1  1/5 1-3

Dundalk

17.10 Eglish @ 9\1  1/5 1-4

17.40 Cherokee Run @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

18.10 Dark Street @ 15\2  1/5 1-4

18.40 Smote @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

19.10 Lady Christa @ 20\1  1/5 1-3

19.40 Rockbury Lad @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

[Xtc12]

Ballinrobe : Ossifer Hops 2nd @ 13\2, Wee Charlie 2nd @ 11\2, Lucid Dreams 3rd @ 8\1  

Dundalk : Cherokee Run 2nd @ 6\1, Rockbury Lad 4th @ 5\1 

Curragh

13.25 Thia @ 5\1  1/4 1-2

15.45 Power Under Me @ 9\2  1/4 1-2

16.20 Laugh A Minute @ 6\1  1/5 1-4

16.55 First Gentleman @ 14\1  1/5 1-3

17.25 Ecclesiastical @ 16\1  1/5 1-6

Tramore

13.40 Double Pink @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

14.50 Early Arrival @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

15.25 Master Breffni @ 7\2  1/5 1-4

16.35 Old Soul @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

17.10 Norwigi @ 7\1  1/5 1-5

[Xtc12]

Tramore

16.15 Knocknacree @ 11\1  1/5 1-3

16.45 Team of Firsts @ 8\1  1/5 1-3

17.15 Our Bobby @ 8\1  1/5 1-4

17.45 Pat Coyne @ 11\2  1/5 1-4

18.15 The Abbey @ 9\2  1/5 1-4

18.45 Fox Le Bel @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

19.15 Tohellorconnacht @ 6\1  1/4 1-2

[Xtc12]

Curragh : Laugh a Minute 3rd @ 6\1, First Gentleman 3rd @ 14\1

Tramore : Double Pink 1st @ 11\2, Early Arrival 1st @ 6\1, Norwigi 4th @ 10\1

Tramore : Pat Coyne 1st @ 6\1, The Abbey 3rd @ 7\1, Fox Le Bel 3rd @ 5\1

Gowran Park 

16.03 Lord Massusus @ 7\1  1/4 1-2

16.38 Barnhill Rose @ 6\1  1/5 1-5

17.45 Bigz Belief @ 8\1 1/5 1-5

18.15 Water Nymph @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

18.45 Parish Star @ 8\1  1/5 1-3

19.15 Riverina Charm @ 4\1  1/5 1-3

Tipperary

14.05 Itstimetomoveon @ 8\1  1/5 1-3

15.15 Go Gill Go @ 7\1  1/5 1-5

15.50 Red As Rust @ 11\1  1/5 1-3

16.25 Percy Warner @ 4\1  1/4 1-2

17.00 Eddies Pride @ 11\2  1/5 1-4

17.35 Koko Kan @ 12\1  1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

Gowran Park : Lord Massusus 1st @ 7\1, Bigz Belief 2nd @ 8\1 

Tipperary : Go Gill Go 3rd @ 9\1, Percy Warner NR

Gowran Park

16.05 No Big Deal @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

16.40 Happenstance @ 8\1  1/5 1-5

17.15 Notforalongtime @ 12\1  1/5 1-5

17.45 Princess rajj @ 14\1  1/5 1-4

18.15 Collage @ 8\1 1/5 1-4

18.45 The Snapper @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

19.15 Elle Dorado Rock @ 7\2  1/5 1-4

[Xtc12]

Gowran Park : Notforalongtime NR, Collage 2nd @ 8\1, Elle Dorado Rock 2nd @ 9\1

Kilbeggan

16.50 Up and Out @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

17.20 Set Point @ 10\1  1/5 1-4

18.20 Dr Val @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

18.50 I am Shadow @ 4\1  1/5 1-3

Tipperary

16.00 Expecto @ 9\1  1/4 1-2

16.35 Parting Glass @ 4\1 1/5 1-3

17.40 Taipan @ 6\1 1/5 1-3

18.10 Casanova @ 9\2  1/5 1-3

18.40 Notturno @ 6\1  1/5 1-4

19.10 Bringsty @ 5\1  1/5 1-5

[Xtc12]

Kilbeggan : Up and Out 2nd @ 7\1, Set Point 4th @ 12\1, She's Tobias NR

Tipperary : Parting Glass 2nd @ 4\1, Taipan 2nd @ 6\1, Casanova 2nd @ 9\2

Cork

13.58 Dutch Gold @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

14.33 Patrick Street @ 11\2  1/5 1-5

15.08 Star Image @ 9\1  1/5 1-3

15.43 Sixpack @ 12\1  1/5 1-3

16.50 Union Flag @ 8\1  1/5 1-4

17.23 Cold Steel @ 7\1 1/5 1-4

Kilbeggan

16.00 Port Nelson @ 9\1  1/5 1-3

16.35 Scenic Look @ 5\1  1/5 1-5

17.10 Skradin @ 8\1  1/5 1-3

17.40 Merry Moves @ 5\1  1/5 1-5

18.10 Bay Ambition @ 13\2  1/5 1-3

18.40 Arctic Ambition @ 13\2  1/5 1-4

19.10 Bodhisattva @ 6\1  1/5 1-5

 

[Xtc12]

Cork : NIL

Kilbeggan : Scenic Look 4th @ 9\2, Arctic Ambition 1st @ 7\1

Navan

14.20 Smash Factor @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

14.55 Aljady @ 9\1  1/5 1-5

16.05 Lumiere Rock @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

16.35 Bolshoi Ballet @ 7\1  1/4 1-2

17.00 Fenomeno @ 7\1  1/5 1-5

17.40 Collaborative @ 11\2  1/5 1-2

Limerick

14.10 Beauty Bella @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

14.45 Magnanimous Mehmus @ 10\1  1/5 1-3

15.20 Lord Vader @ 12\1  1/5 1-5

15.55 Racing Royalty @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

16.25 Tosen Wish @ 13\2  1/5 1-5

17.00 Etna Rossa @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

17.30 Tudor Manor @ 13\2  1/5 1-5

[Xtc12]

Navan : Aljady 5th @ 9\1, Fenomeno 4th @ 7\1, Collaborative NR

Limerick : Beauty Bella 3rd @ 15\2, Lord Vader 4th @ 20\1, Tosen Wish NR, Etna Rosso 1st @ 5\1, Tudor Manor 5th @ 11\1

Punchestown

15.40 Unanswered @ 5\1  1/5 1-6

16. 1-345 Da Capa Glory @ 10\1  1/5 1-3

17.20 Salvador Ziggy @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

17.55 Envoi Allen @ 12\1  1/4 1-2

18.30 Rath Gaul Boy @ 12\1  1/5 1-3

19.05 Ilikedwayurthinkin @ 6\1  1/5 1-3

19.45 Cuta Des As @ 13\2  1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

Punchestown : Da Capo Glory 2nd @ 11\1, Cuta Des As 3rd @ 10\1 

Punchestown

15.40 By Your Side @ 7\1  1/5 1-6

16.15 The Folkes Tiara @ 8\1  1/5 1-4

16.50 Mortal @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

17.25 Sire Du Berlais @ 13\2 1/5 1-3

18.00 Parmenion @ 8\1  1/5 1-6

19.10 Indie Belle @ 9\1  1/5 1-4

19.45 Slade Steel @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

Punchestown : By Your Side 2nd @ 7\1, The Folkes Tiara 3rd @ 11\1, Sire Du Berlais 3rd @ 7\1, Indie Belle 1st @ 9\1, Slade Steel 3rd @ 6\1

Punchestown

15.40 Jet Fighter @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

16.50 Instit @ 13\2  1/4 1-2

17.25 Vauban @ 6\1  1/4 1-2

18.00 Champ Kiely @ 11\2   1/4 1-2

18.35 Chris's Dream @ 5\1 1/5 1-3

19.10 Firm Footings @ 11\2 1/5 1-3 

19.45 Walk Away Harry @ 10\1 1/5 1-4 

 

 

[Xtc12]

Punchestown : Instit 2nd @ 13\2, Vauban 2nd @ 6\1, Walk Away Harry 1st @ 11\1

Punchestown

14.35 Plan of Attack @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

15.10 History of Fashion @ 11\2  1/5 1-5

15.50 Queens Brook @ 11\2  1/4 1-2

16.25 Flegmatik @ 13\2  1/5 1-4

17.00 Zarak the Brave @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

17.30 Heia @ 7\1  1/5 1-5

18.05 Barons Revenge @ 8\1  1/5 1-4

[Xtc12]

Punchestown : History of Fashion 3rd @ 10\1, Queens Brook NR, Zarak the Brave 2nd @ 17\2 

Sligo

14.15 Run For You @ 10\1  1/5 1-3

14.45 Arniemac @ 4\1  1/4 1-2

15.20 Sin E Shekells @ 6\1  1/5 1-4

15.55 Little Keilee @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

16.55 La Dame Blanche @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

17.25 Monnow Valley @ 8\1  1/5 1-3

 

[Xtc12]

Sligo : Arniemac 2nd @ 4\1, Sin E Shekells 3rd @ 6\1, Little Keilee 1st @ 7\1, La Dame Blanche 3rd @ 5\1

Curragh

13.20 Elliptical @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

15.00 Queenie St Clair @ 11\2  1/5 1-3

15.35 Agartha @ 7\1  1/5 1-3

16.10 Above the Curve @ 5\1  1/4 1-2

16.45 Cnodian @ 11\2  1/5 1-5

17.20 Midnight Fire @ 5\1  1/5 1-6

Down Royal

14.10 I Don't Get it @ 6\1  1/5 1-5

14.45 Bella Bliss @ 15\2  1/4 1-2

15.20 Heather Rocco @ 15\2  1/5 1-3

15.55 Galon De Vauzelle @ 5\1  1/5 1-4

16.30 Sizing Diamond @ 14\1  1/5 1-3

17.05 Smokey Putnam @ 20\1  1/5 1-3

[Xtc12]

Curragh : Agatha 2nd @ 8/1

Down Royal : I Don't Get it 1st @ 13/2, Bella Bliss 1st @ 15/2, Heather Rocco 2nd @ 9/2, Gabon De Vauzelle 3rd @ 13/2, Smokey Putnam 3rd @ 20/1

Ballinrobe

16.45 Men of Dreams  @ 9/1  1/5 1-3

17.18 Marciano @ 15/2  1/5 1-3

17.48 Run Like Fada @ 7/1  1/5 1-4

18.18 Easy Fella @ 5/1  1/5 1-3

18.48 Everystep oftheway @ 5/1  1/5 1-4

19.18 Hamundarson @ 8/1  1/5 1-3

19.48 Golden Sandbanks @ 9/1  1/5 1-3

20.18 Master Player @ 18/1. 1/5 1-3