Racing Chat- Saturday 2nd April

[The Brigadier]

A decent afternoon’s racing coming from Newbury and their final NH card of the season and day two of the Scottish National meeting up at Ayr. The ground appears to be on the slow side of good at both tracks but with little rain around may well tighten up a bit.

 

Ayr 1.15

The days ITV action kicks off with the ten runner Scotty Brand Handicap Chase run over two miles. Sebastopol did us a favour last time out at Kempton when bouncing back to form but he always appeals as one not to take too much of a skinny price about and at around the 9/4 mark we can let him win. The horse I’m quite sweet on here is the Peter Niven trained Malystic who comes here a fresh horse having had just the one outing this season. That was when unseating at the 8th (four from home and going well at time)at Doncaster a month ago. He ran at this meeting last year following two novice victories when finishing second of four in the Future Champion Novices’ Chase beaten 19L by the smart Allmankind with the icing in the cake today being the booking of top Northern jockey Brian Hughes who’s closing in on his first 200 winners in a season and has already won twice on the selection.

 

MALYSTIC 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill

 

 

Newbury 1.35

A valuable ten runner novices’ handicap hurdle starts proceedings at Newbury to be run over 2m 3F. Top weight Surrey Quest has questions to answer now as does Paul Nicholls’ mare Rainyday Woman who finished her latest race with a irregular heartbeat. Punctuation landed a gamble a month ago here and was pulled out at Warwick on Thursday with the drying ground the reason. He has a definite chance but I would worry about the ground drying up for him. My idea of the likely winner is the Gary Moore trained Royaume Uni who has been pulled out twice this season on account of soft ground so the under foot conditions here should be ideal. He’s shown smart form in handicap company on his last three starts impressing when shooting clear to win by 7L at Fontwell last time. The handicapper has had his say and shoved him up 6lb but he looks sure to run well.

 

ROYAUME UNI 2 points each way @ 5/1 Bet365 1/5th 123

 

Ayr 1.50

A three mile novices’ handicap chase is up next with the weights headed by the smart Nicky Henderson trained Dusart. Always held in high regard by the Seven Barrows team he won a couple of small field novice chases earlier in the season not impressing everyone then but stepped his form up when finishing 5th in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham won by L’Homme Presse with horses rated 152 and 156 4 1/4L and 9L behind him. He races off of 147 today and that, despite his welter weight, looks lenient and I fully expect him to take this as long as the quickish turnaround from Cheltenham has done him no harm. The danger may well be the exciting chaser Sounds Russian, trained by Ruth Jefferson. He’s bolted up in three handicap chases rising 34lb but all were gained on very soft ground.

 

DUSART 2 points win @ 9/4 Betfred

 

Newbury 2.10

A veterans chase run over just short of three miles is next up and has attracted a field of ten runners. An interesting runner is Bermeo who is undoubtably well handicapped and most importantly joined the in form Harry Fry having left Tim Vaughan - a definite trainer upgrade to my eyes. Off of bottom weight expect an improved effort from the eleven year old. Plenty come here in decent form none more so than the Venetia Williams trained First Figaro who is my pick. He finished third in this race last season when an unfancied 16/1 chance but appears to be a better animal this time around. He won twice last month under the stables conditional jockey Ned Fox who’s onboard again and his most recent victory was given a mighty boost when the horse he beat a comfortable 14L Onchan won earlier in the week. The likes of Indy Five, La Cavsa Nostra and No Comment all have chances of sorts but it’s First Figaro for me with a small saver on the stable changer Bermeo.

 

FIRST FIGARO 2 1/2 points win @ 11/2 Bet365

BERMEO 1/2 point win @ 13/2 BetVictor

 

Ayr 2.25

The Scottish Champion Hurdle is a handicap run over two miles and despite a smallish field of nine looks open enough. Last year’s comfortable winner Milkwood heads the weights and is only 8lb higher this time around. He’s obviously had his issues mind as we haven’t seen him since flopping on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter last October. Presumably he’s been aimed at this and has to be on the short list. Runner up last year was the John McConnell trained Anna Bunina and must have a chance of turning the tables today on a stone better terms for the 3 3/4L beating. She’s been a tad disappointing so far this season but needs good ground and the more it dries out the better for this six year old mare. She actually ran third to Socialist Agenda last time out at Musselburgh and has a healthy pull with that one (15lb for 6L) although the winner won well that day and despite being 6lb wrong at the weights today can also run well. Dan Skelton saddles his County Hurdle 4th West Cork and he too is a player here in this competitive handicap along with Onemorefortheroad. A tight call but hoping we have eight runners I’ll be backing Anna Bunina each way with a small each way saver on Socialist Agenda who’s improving.

 

ANNA BUNINA 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th 123

SOCIALIST AGENDA 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 Bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newbury 2.45

A bumper field of sixteen assemble for this valuable mares novices’ handicap hurdle run over 2m 4 1/2F. Top weight and heading the market is Noel William’s Speech Bubble who’s latest effort when chasing home the subsequent Cheltenham winner Love Envoi looks smart form. She had previously won over course and distance with her trainer stating afterwards that she wants testing ground. She most certainly won’t get that today and for that reason alone she’s overlooked despite her form credentials. Olly Murphy saddles the unbeaten Corey’s Courage who’s won at Bangor, Uttoxeter and Doncaster this season and should be thereabouts. If the ground rides genuinely good then the Alan King trained Nina The Terrier, who’s form figures on good ground read 111, maybe worth a speculative each way wager. He beat the Cheltenham Festival placed Ahorsewithnoname in good style here back in November and his recent efforts can be dismissed due to racing on very soft ground. Sabrina is also interesting from a couple of pounds out of the handicap after a comfortable victory at Wincanton last time but in a tough handicap I’ll take Nina The Terrier to thrive on the better ground and run a big race with 3lb conditional jockey Brian Carver a rare booking for Alan King.

 

NINA THE TERRIER 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ayr 3.00

A small field of only five go to post for the 2m 4 1/2F Future Champions Novices’ Chase. The best in here by 3lb is the Michael Scudamore trained Do Your Job and he looks the one to be with. Already a winner at the Scottish track over hurdles he’s kept good company in his five starts over the larger obstacles winning at Warwick in November and Newcastle in a handicap off of a mark of 140 in February. That form should be good enough to win this. Minella Drama disappointed at Kempton last time and has to shoulder a 5lb penalty today for his previous Haydock victory whilst Il Ridoto is stepping up in trip which isn’t certain to suit the keen running Paul Nicholls five year old. Jacamar makes up the quintet but he has a few pounds to find on form so this can go to Do Your Job.

 

DO YOUR JOB 2 points win @5/2 Bet365

 

Ayr 3.35

The Scottish Grand National is run over just short of four miles and as always has attracted a healthy field of 24 runners. Christian Williams sends a brace of runners up from his Welsh base and both would appear to hold solid claims. Kitty’s Light was runner up in the Bet365 Gold Cup last season and shapes like a dour stayer whilst his stable mate Win My Wings is all about stamina having won the Eider Chase at Newcastle last time and his 8lb rise in the weights is negated here by the booking of crack Irish amateur Robbie James who claims 7lb. There are plenty who are trying this marathon trip for the first time and that list includes Fantastikas (could of done with slower ground), Fidux, Ashton Boy, Streets Of Doyen and Major Dundee. My shortlist comprises of last years 5th Cool Mix who arrives here in decent form and is 6lb lower plus an additional 5lb to be taken off from conditional Alan Doyle (who was on top last time when 2nd at Musselburgh over a trip too sharp). Jersey Bean who will love the drying ground and will stay forever, trained by Oliver Sherwood and ridden by Brendan Powell he was pulled out on the day of the Midlands National due to the heavy ground and I expect a bold showing from him. One More Fleurie is worth a mention as he won at the meeting last year and is an interesting runner although he has to prove his stamina here. A very tough race where I’ll take Cool Mix and Jersey Bean at double figure odds with enhanced place terms against the field.

 

JERSEY BEAN 1 point each way @ 20/1 Bet365 1/5 1234567

COOL MIX 1 point each way @ 11/1 Bet365 1/5 1234567

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

310 leop 

Agartha  9.0  6.4 

Sacred bridge   8.8  3.35 

Panama red    8.1  

Homely songs   8.1

Pennine Hills    7.9 

5pt wins top 2