Racing Chat - Saturday February 19th

[The Brigadier]

Seven races to be shown by ITV this Saturday from Haydock (subject to a 8AM inspection), Ascot and the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Soft ground is forecast at all three meetings with Haydock actually claiming heavy conditions so its all about mudlarks this weekend.

 

Ascot 1.50

Six novice’s assemble over just short of three miles of the Berkshire track for the Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase. On official ratings there’s only 8lb between the sextet with the current favourite being the Kim Bailey trained Does He Know. He’s not been seen since the Autumn but is over looked here as his best form is on better ground and his trainer is on record as saying he’s quirky. Lucinda Russell think the world of her Corach Rambler who wears a first time tongue tie here. Only 4lb off if the top rated Does He Know is the total outsider of the field in the Laura Morgan trained J’Ai Froid who looks the value bet here. He’s yet to hit the heights of his hurdles form (he was a four time winner last term) but has shown enough in two starts to suggest he can be competitive for a trainer who’s in red hot form at present winning with 5 of her last 13 runners.

 

J’AI FROID 1 point win @ 9/1 888Sport

 

Haydock 2.05

Six go to post or the 3m 58 yds Rendlesham Hurdle. Last years winner Third Wind had to shoulder a 6lb penalty here but his trainer Hughie Morrison has his team in top shape so can’t be ruled out. Also shouldering a 6lb penalty is the Olly Murphy runner Thomas Darby who’s the best in at these weights having won the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November. The only mare in the race is Molly Olly’s Wishes who also has to carry a 6lb penalty. Dan Skelton’s eight year old is unbeaten in two attempts at three miles and arrives here following a win in a grade two at Ascot in January. I’ll take here to beat her five rivals.

 

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.25

A competitive ten runner 3 mile handicap chase where cases can be made for the majority of these. The current favourite is Fiddlerontheroof who we haven’t seen since finishing runner up in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury in November. He must have a decent chance but has to give weight all round and his price is rather skinny at around 11/4. Ask Me Early is a progressive chaser who’s won 5 of his last 7 starts but this is his second preference and all being well goes to Wincanton for a weaker race. Venetia Williams string is in terrific form and she saddles bottom weight Hold That Taught who’s a lively outsider but the horse that catches my eye is the Henry Daly trained Fortescue. He’s kept good handicap company in his last two starts, finishing runner up to Four Star Getaway at Kempton and a decent third to Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. With conditions to suit he looks a good each way bet.

 

FORTESCUE 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234

 

Haydock 2.40

This year’s William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase has attracted eleven runners and will be a severe stamina test run over 3m 4F 97yds on very testing ground.

Secret Reprieve ran a lot better than his finishing position would suggest in this year’s Welsh National and the handicapper has kindly dropped him a couple of pounds. He’ll love both trip and ground and looks the one to beat for Evan Williams and Adam Wedge.

Teenager Blaklion has found a new leash of life this season and has absolutely bolted up here twice this term. The handicapper has however taken his revenge and pushed him back up the handicap. He too mind will love conditions. Confirmed mudlark and Haydock specialist Bristol De Mai shoulders top weight here and wouldn’t be totally out of it and the same can be said about last years winner Lord Du Mesnil, who can race today off of only a one pound higher mark. Sam Brown trained by the very much in form Anthony Honeyball is another out and out staying mudlark and ran his best race for a while last time out in the Peter Marsh here when pushing the smart Royale Pagaille all the way. A tough race but Secret Reprieve looks well handicapped still and can take the winners prize.

 

SECRET REPRIEVE 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.00

A competitive thirteen runner handicap hurdle run over 2m 3F 58yds with Easyland heading the weights. He showed nothing last time and is easily dismissed here. A warm favourite here in the Sam Thomas trained Good Risk At All who will be very hard to beat having been backed in from a s big as 5/1 during the week. He followed up a 6L second to the smart Jonbon by running Donald McCain’s Barrichello to a neck on his handicap debut at Warwick. Given four weeks to get over that race and with a rise of just 3lb he can take this with Charlie Deutsch doing the steering. Paul Nicholls is back in better form now and his Cap Du Mathan maybe the biggest threat to the selection. He came back from a 714 day absence to easily win at Taunton last month and as long as he doesn’t ‘bounce’ should be thereabouts despite a 9lb rise in the weights. Zacony Rebel, a winner of two novice hurdles this season for up and coming trainer Toby Lawes, is another with claims but this should be all about Good Risk To All.

 

GOOD RISK TO ALL 3 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Wincanton 3.20

A small but select field of four go to post for the Kingwell Hurdle run over 1m 7F 50 yds of the Somerset track. With Faivoir coming back from fencing and Llandinabo Lad having a stone to find this looks a match between last years winner Goshen and Adagio. Goshen was ultra impressive in this contest a year ago but isn’t always the most straight forward although to be fair to Gary Moore’s six year old did nothing wrong when winning at Sandown last time. I’m not sure I can fully trust him especially at the likely odds so the bet here has to be the David Pipe trained Adagio. He’s not been seen since an excellent second in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham back in November. He was a smart four year old and his trainer was making all the right sounds in the trade paper earlier in the week so I’ll take him to win and throw his hat into the Champion Hurdle picture against Honeysuckle.

 

ADAGIO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill

 

 

Ascot 3.38

A decent turnout for this year’s renewal of the Betfair Ascot Chase, a grade 1 contest run over 2m 5F. Irish raider Fakir D’oudairies has has the mis-fortune to bump into Allaho on his last two outings and is officially the best horse in the field. He sets the standard here. Dashel Drasher has won four of his five starts at Ascot including this contest last year and is another with claims. Venetia Williams has her string in such fine form that her runner here Fanion D’Estruval has to be given plenty of respect with Charlie Deutsch taking over from Lucy Turner. Two For Gold looks overpriced on his recent short head defeat of Dashel Drasher at Lingfield receiving 6lb and could also make his presence felt. Paul Nicholls’ Saint Calvados hasn’t been seen since a credible third in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and the drop back in trip looks likely to suit. He looks the biggest danger to Fakir D’oudairies who’s the one to beat.

 

FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

[black rabbit]

the galloping bear  2 40  haydock  1/4 pt win   12/1  

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 118.25 pts