Racing Chat - Saturday 12th February

[The Brigadier]

More quality than quantity among the eight ITV races Saturday coming from Warwick and Newbury with the ground a drying good to soft at both fixtures.

 

Newbury 1.15

It’s great to see a grade one horse in Bravemansgame lining up here in a handicap under top weight of 11-8. This 2m 7F 86yds novices’ limited handicap has attracted only six runners, not surprisingly with the aforementioned Bravemansgame keeping half the field out of the handicap. He’s looked a very smart chaser winning all three of his races in some style and even with his welter weight will be very hard to beat with his neat effortless jumping. The only negative for him is the form, or lack of it, of his stable. Paul Nicholls is running at a win ratio of 3% with only one winner (Dolos) in the past fortnight from 37 runners. Included in that poor sequence are six beaten favourite (all finished 2nd). It is a major worry and would surely stop the big odds on punters getting stuck into him. Gallyhill and I K Brunel have it to do from 7lb and 10lb out of the weights whilst Fern Hill is held by Grumpy Charley. The two main dangers to the favourite are the latter, a winner here in December and Pats Fancy who’s chasing a hat trick following two victories at Chepstow in December. Bravemansgame should win this but with the stable form worrying I’ll sit the race out from a punting perspective.

 

Warwick 1.35

Only four assemble here for the Mares’ Hurdle run over 2m 5F. Paul Weber’s smart mare Indefatigable won this last year and despite a 6lb penalty today will be hard to beat again. There was plenty to like about her neck second at Cheltenham last time behind the progressive Martello Sky and with Daryl Jacob still out injured Rex Dingle comes in for the ride. The danger may well be the Nicky Henderson trained Marie’s Rock who on official ratings is only a pound inferior to the selection at todays weights. She was badly hampered by a faller last time out in the Lanzarote Hurdle eventually pulling up and is better than that run would suggest. She looks a value bet against the favourite. Both the remaining runners have a bit to find and I’ll take Marie’s Rock to beat Indefatigable. 

MARIES ROCK 1 point win @ 11/4 Coral/Ladbroke

 

 

Newbury 1.50

Eight go to post for this 3 mile handicap hurdle following the late defection of Skandiburg. Top weight The Big Breakaway is a very interesting runner as he was held in some regard by the Tizzard’s as a chaser but was ultimately disappointing in that sphere and returns hurdling now following a wind operation. His last effort over timber was when 4th in the 2020 Ballymore won by Envoi Allen and a mark of 144 today may not be that bad. Risk And Roll bolted up in a Pertemps qualifier at Huntingdon last month but has been clobbered by the handicapper since with a ten pound rise. Coeur De Lion has been well backed throughout the week and is no doubt a well handicapped horse although he has stamina to prove though he should relish the trip asa former 2m 4F winner on the level. Last year’s winner Polish looks the likeliest winner to my eyes. Fergal O’Brien’s 7 year old gelding beat fifteen rivals last year off of the same handicap mark as today and could quite easily have been trained for this race. With stable jockey Paddy Brennan on board he looks sure to run well and is the bet here with a saver on Coeur De Lion. 

POLISH 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

COEUR DELION 1 point win @ 7/1 Bet365

 

Warwick 2.05

Four quality chasers assemble here for the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase run over 2m 54yds. Best in at the weights is the Alan King trained Edwardstone who’s done little wrong this season over fences and remains Britain’s main hope of upsetting the Irish in next months Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. He’s looked impressive in all three of his completed chase wins and is the one to beat here. 6lb behind on official ratings is the Skelton runner Third Time Lucki who bounced back to form at Doncaster a fortnight ago when cantering all over For Pleasure who fell at the last. It’s very hard to fancy For Plaesure on that run. Third Time Lucki has already met Edwardstone this season at Sandown back in December and was firmly put in his place by the King runner that day. Don’t dismiss the Venetia Williams runner Brave Seasca here mind. He’s looked very good winning twice over course and distance and at Ascot in handicap company this season and although he has 9lb to find with Edwardstone can give him a race. Edwardstone will however be a tough nut to crack and he’s the bet here. 

EDWARDSTONE 2 points win @ Evens William Hill

 

 

Newbury 2.25

The Denman Chase is run over 2m 7F 86yds and has attracted only 5 runners this season which isn’t unusual for this grade 2 contest. Likely favourite Clan Des Obeaux is using this as a prep for the Gold Cup as he did last year when he went off a similarly short favourite at 6/5 when finishing runner up to Secret Investor. A good second in the King George over Christmas he looks sure to run well but although officially 6lb better than these is poor value with his stable under a cloud currently. De Rasher Counter, a winner of the 2019 Ladbroke Trophy has a long absence to overcome whilst Eldorado Allen is stepping up to three miles for the first time and has plenty on here. Imperial Aura appears to have lost his form so the obvious one to beat the favourite is the Venetia Williams trained Royal Pagaille. He had to battle hard to give weight to fellow mudlark Sam Brown in the Pater Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock three weeks ago and is only 6lb inferior to the favourite on official ratings. The negative for him is that he really needs the ground much softer but I want to take the favourite on so he’ll do for me to small stakes with the ground issues. 

ROYAL PAGAILLE 1 point win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 3.00

Another small turnout here of four following the late defection of Editeur De Gite for this year’s renewal of the Game Spirit Chase, a grade 2 contest run over 2 miles and 92 yards. Each of the quartet has claims although if you fancy Paul Nicholl’s Hitman you’re best waiting to see how his runners earlier in the afternoon have performed. Venetia William’s Funambule Sivola arrives in good form (as his stable very much is) and has claims as does Sky Pirate who bumped into the well handicapped Brave Seasca at Warwick last time. One would think that he’s been trained for another tilt at the Grand Annual Handicap at Cheltenham next month, a race he won last year. That just leaves last years winner Sceau Royal who’s reverting to the bigger obstacles today having run with credit over hurdles this season, although he was a bit flat last time. Alan King will have him primed for this and he’s the one I like. 

SCEAU ROYAL 1 point win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

Warwick 3.15

A good betting heat run over 2m 4F for chasers with a decent pot of £26k to the winner. Likely market leaders Cheddleton who arrives in decent form and Falco Blitz, a winner at Kempton last month and only 3lb higher have obvious claims. Our Power trained by Sam Thomas got his head in front again at Huntingdon last time out and a ruse of only 2lb puts him also in the shake up here whilst Philip Hobbs’ Celebre D’Allen is reverting back to the larger obstacles having won twice over hurdles since joining Hobbs from France. His best form however appears to have come in very soft ground which he’s unlikely to get here. Outsider Lieutenant Rocco is an interesting runner who was a smart novice when in the care of Nick Mitchell in season 2020/21. He’s since joined the capable Harriet Brown and although pulling up on his debut for her maybe capable of better. The selection however is the Irish challenger Dinny Lacey trained in County Cork by J Motherway. He ran his best race for a while last time out in a decent handicap chase at Limerick in first time blinkers and it looks highly significant that Robbie Power is over for just the one ride - surely a tip in itself. 

DINNY LACEY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5^th 1234 

 

 

Newbury 3.35

A disappointing turnout of only 14 go to post for the Betfair Hurdle run over 2m 69yds. It’s an open race mind with several holding claims. In fact bar the three rank outsiders a positive case can be made for the other eleven. Among the market leaders are Colin Tizzard’s Jpr One, a novice who’s won 2 of his 3 starts and fellow novice Knappers Hill who hails from the Paul Nicholls stable who are currently under a cloud so unless he dramatically bounces back to form earlier today must be left. Nicky Henderson and JP McManus are represented by Broomfield Burg who’s been aimed at this race for awhile now. He too is a novice and can make his presence felt. The race was won last year in excellent fashion by today’s top weight Soaring Glory and he too has claims despite a mark a stone higher than last year. Back in second a year ago was the Gary Moore trained Fifty Ball and despite a disappointing season over fences drops back hurdling a full stone better off with Soaring Glory for the beating last year. He’s on my short list. Jetoile is a very interesting runner from the Ryan Potter stable. Following two facile victories in novice hurdles at Chepstow and Leicester over 2m 4F he ran arguably his best race of his career when a 12L runner up to the smart Constitution Hill in the grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last month. The winner won comfortably that day but Jetoile had some nice types behind including Shallwehaveonemore who has bolted up since. I’ll play him each way with additional places and a small each way saver on Fifty Ball in a wide open handicap.

 

JETOILE 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

FIFTY BALL 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

 

[black rabbit]

had this on betfair hurdle posting 

 

first street    1/4  pt win  16/1   betfair hurdle 

the brimming water   1 50 newb   1/4 pt win  7/1

royaume uni  3 35 newb   1/4 pt win 16/1   

riders of the storm 3 15 war  1/4 pt win 14/1

chti balko 1 58 uttx    1/4 pt win   12/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  118.25  pts

Edited February 12, 2022 by black rabbit
adding selections