Lincoln - Doncaster 26th March (not long now!)

[The Brigadier]

It’s nearly five weeks to Cheltenham so now seems as good a time as any to have an in depth look at the flats first big handicap the Lincoln !

To be run on the straight mile at Doncaster on March 26th the handicap weights were released last week.

 

The first way to tackle the event is to narrow the 76 entries down. The most that can run is 22 and the last 9 runnings have seen the lowest rated horse as 96,96,97,97,98,96,93,90 and 90 (latest renewals first). You can see from those ratings that nowadays you’re unlikely to get a run if you’re rated in the early 90’s so let’s start by scrubbing out all the horses rated 93 and lower. That leaves us with 33 to concentrate on which is a much more manageable amount.

 

The weights are headed by William Knight’s smart Sir Busker whom I’m led to believe is been trained for the race. He has plenty of weight mind and is overlooked here.

Charlie Appleby has won the contest twice in the last five renewals and has two entered in Valiant Prince who has already won at Meydan this winter in a one mile turf handicap and Modern News who was unbeaten in three starts last season with his rating rising 15lb. If Appleby decides to run one then expect him to come in for considerable support but there’s no word as yet as to whether he will run one (apparently both are currently in Dubai and would near enough have to come straight off the plane to run here which he did with the gambled on Auxerre in 2019).

Last years race was won by the Gosden’s Haqeeqy with Michael Dodds’ Brunch chasing him home on his seasonal re-appearance. Brunch is 4lb higher now but could run well.

John Gosden saddled last years winner under apprentice Benoit De La Sayette (remember him?) and is represented this time around by Sunray Major who was last seen when flopping on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He’s lightly raced and another interesting runner whom Gosden said last week had just started cantering. If he made it to post he would be a very interesting runner. The Gosden camp also have Al Rufaa entered but he looks high enough in the handicap.

Anmaat is one of two Shadwell horses entered in the contest and is trained by Owen Burrows. He had a productive year last season winning three times and ending up finishing runner up in the Cambridgeshire. He’s 5lb higher than that run but is progressive and is yet another for my long short list!

Clive Cox is represented by Aratus, a winner of four of his five career starts whom has been gelded since we last saw him at Goodwood last August. He would be stepping up to a mile for the first time here were he to run but is again an interesting runner. Cox also has Dance Fever in the race (in the same ownership as top weight Sir Busker) but he looks in the handicappers grip.

Roger Varian has three entered in Father Of Jazz, Tinker Toy and La Tihaty. It’s the latter that looks the most interesting having run up a sequence of four wins on the all weather with his latest victory coming at Kempton last Sunday for which he will carry a 5lb penalty if taking his chance.

Simon and Ed Crisford have a brace of runners in Chance and Saleymm with preference for the latter who has won twice on the all weather last November. He is however up 10lb for his latest success and yet to prove he is as good on the turf as he is on a synthetic surface.

That brings me to the interesting trainer in this race. Step forward Newmarket based William Haggas who has won this competitive handicap a record four times with High Low (1992), Very Wise (2007), Penitent (2010) and Addeybb (2018). The latter was his last runner in the race and it is obviously a race he likes to target if he has the right horse for the race. This year he has Boosala (last seen finishing 2nd on the all weather at Newcastle in December), Irish Admiral (flopped in the Cambridgeshire when last seen), Ametist and Mujtaba. It’s the last named that takes my eye here as an unbeaten Shadwell owned Dubawi gelding who looks pretty sure to end up better than a handicapper. He’s won all three of his starts in his short career as a three year old last season starting out at Chepstow in August and following up with victories at Chester the following month and in handicap company at Redcar in October on soft ground.

The last three winners of this race were all lightly raced four year olds hailing from big Newmarket operations having only run 5,4 and 5 times previously proving that if you’re smart enough you can overcome lack of experience.

I do know that he is cantering at Newmarket and that if things go his way in the next month and he pleases his trainer then he could easily take this in. If I knew for sure he was a definite runner I would be suggesting a decent bet here but as the race is some seven weeks away I can only suggest a small win only bet in race that I think we can re-visit much closer to the event besides that we’ve only got the small matter of Cheltenham to get out of the way first!

 

MUJTABA 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365/William Hill/Coral/Betfred/Skybet/Boylesports

 

[richard-westwood]

I wouldn't mind a cheeky antepost or 2 ....got a day off Tues ill rate the race best I can and see what it throws up ....I know itsxearly but makes for interesting discussion