Racing Chat - Wednesday December 29th

[The Brigadier]

Some decent racing on ITV today coming from three meetings at Newbury, Doncaster and Leopardstown with the ground riding soft at all three meetings. Here’s my thoughts on the days racing.

 

Newbury 1.25

A tricky looking 2 mile handicap chase which may fall to the very much in form Samuel Drinkwater trained Gallic Geordie. Drinkwater’s last eight runners have finished 32F11113 and his Geordieland gelding is chasing a hat trick following success’s at Lingfield this winter over today’s trip. He has to shoulder a 7lb penalty for his latest win and this is a step up in grade but he’s very much on the upgrade and with his stable in such excellent form is the selection here on ground that will suit. 

GALLIC GEORDIE 2 points win 5/2 Bet365

 

Leopardstown 1.45

Eight runners for the grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase run over three miles. Willie Mullins has his team in fine shape and saddles a brace here in Bacardys and Ontheropes with the latter under Paul Townend holding a big chance following his 4th in the Ladbroke Trophy dropping back into novice company. Last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle winner Vanillier bolted up at Punchestown and conditions look ideal for him today whilst the other main protagonist is Run Wild Fred trained by Gordon Elliott who was an impressive winner of the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan in November. I fully expect the winner to come from one of this trio and although a hard call I just favour Gavin Crowmell’s Vanillier. 

VANILLIER 1 point win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

Newbury 2.00

A 12 runner 2m 4 1/2F handicap hurdle which has an open look about it. Nicky Henderson saddles a brace of runners in Monte Cristo and Dickie Diver both of whom are at the front of the market. Preference is for the latter who has always been held in high esteem at Seven Barrows but was disappointing over fences last season and reverts back to hurdles here. He had six entries over the festive period. The ground can’t be soft enough for top weight Dashel Drasher and he’s also reverting back to the smaller obstacles on a handicap mark that is 10lb lower than his chase one. He’s not out of this. Masters Legacy has to be on the short list following a decent course and distance run last time (raised 3lb for that) behind Earlofthecotswolds. However in a tricky race it maybe Tom Lacey’s Pounding Poet that gets his head in front. He may well have bumped into a well handicapped Olly Murphy handicap debutant in Tamar Bridge at Aintree last time and despite a 5lb rise is worth an interest today. 

POUNDING POET 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Leopardstown 2.20

The Matheson Hurdle is run over 2 miles and this grade 1 event has been won by Willie Mullins’ Sharjah for the last three years. He’s back to hopefully win four on the bounce which is one more than the great Hurricane Fly from the same stable did. He’s very hard to oppose coming here on the back of an authoritative victory in the Morigana Hurdle at Punchestown where he had today’s second favourite Zanahiyr and stable companion Echoes In Rain back in 2nd and 3rd and comfortably beaten off. He should be winning this and though I wouldn’t usually play at odds on I do think that he should be much shorter than his current odds. 

SHARJAH 4 points win @ 4/5 Bet365

 

Newbury 2.35

A good turn out for the Mandarin Handicap Chase with 14 staying chasers going to post for this 3m 2F contest. Despite the numbers one horse stands out here for me in the David Pipe trained Gericault Roque for whom it can’t be soft enough. Placed in handicaps at Wetherby and Chepstow on his two fencing starts there surely is more to come from this likeable five year old and he looks poised to run a big race under stable jockey Tom Scudamore. Richard Bandey’s Saint Palais looks a threat chasing a hat trick of wins this season though he has risen 17lb in the process so will have to improve again. 

GERICAULT ROQUE 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234 Betfred

 

 

Doncaster 2.50

8 go to post for this 3 mile handicap chase which has an open feel about it. Oscar Robertson heads the market following his facile Wetherby win in November for Tom George and is a big player here along with Neil Mulholland’s JP McManus owned Chirico Vallis, a Chepstow winner in October but I’m going take a swing on the total outsider of the field in the Milton Harris trained Danny Whizzbang. Formerly a smart chaser when trained by Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat when rated as high as 147 he has cut no ice in two starts for his new trainer who’s done so well this season but was out of his depth in the Ladbroke Trophy and badly wrong at the weights at Ascot (also lost two shoes). He’s been dropped 7lb for those two runs and can race off of a mark of 128 here some 19lb lower than his best ever mark. I’ll play each way hoping that all eight run. 

DANNY WHIZZBANG 1 point each way @ 22/1 1/5^th 123

 

Newbury 3.05

A decent renewal of the 2m 4 1/2F Challow Hurdle where I think the bookmakers have the wrong favourite here in Stage Star. As promising as the Paul Nicholls trained five year old, who’s won both his novice hurdles in decent style, is he has not achieved anywhere near as much as chief threat Lossiemouth has. Tom Lacey’s six year old is unbeaten in three hurdle races, two handicap hurdles and the 2m 4F Ballymore Winter Novices Hurdle at Sandown earlier in the month when spread eagling a decent field coming home a eased down 14L winner. If he can reproduce that effort today he will be very hard to beat. Gordon Elliott sends over Gringo D’aubrelle who will be ridden by Dennis O’Regan but he will need to be better than he’s shown so far to take a hand here and looks under priced. 

LOSSIEMOUTH 3 points win @ 7/2 Coral/Ladbrokes

 

Doncaster 3.20

This listed mares chase appears to be a match between the penalised Zambella and Venetia William’s Kapga De Lilly. On official ratings at these weights there’s only 2lb between the pair in favour of the former and she may take this following on from a decent victory in a similar contest at Aintree earlier in the month. 

ZAMBELLA 2 points win @ 6/5 Bet365

 

Newbury 3.35

Only eight go to post for this 2m 6 1/2F novices’ handicap chase. The only one here who has yet to jump a fence in public is the Nicky Henderson runner Patroclus who races from 3lb out of the handicap and is an interesting runner. Paul Nicholl’s top weight Flash Collonges was no doubt out of his depth here on his fencing debut when never landing a blow against the smart Ahoy Senor in November and will appreciate dropping back into calmer waters. He’s worth a small interest to prove that run all wrong especially dropping back in trip which should suit and a drop of 3lb by the handicapper. 

FLASH COLLONGES 1 point win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

[fd1972uk]

Vaniller 11/4 and Dysart Diamond 5/1 bets for today. 

1535 new flash collonges 4/1

Missed minella crooner for a 4 fold e/w at 12/1, so went 

1400 New pounding poet

1435 leo shantou lucky

1730 sou publicist (originally going with landofsmiles) 

4 fold e/w (bet couple of odds on to qualify for promotion) 

1345 leo run with fred

1420 leo sharjah

1435 new landofsmiles

1900 sou aramis grey

Edited December 29, 2021 by fd1972uk

[Zilzalian]

Was thinking of various strategies for the final day of Christmas tipsters competition given i have 3rd place at the mo.

1 i do nothing and stay on +11 the others get 9 losers i win. the danger is someone comes from nowhere.

2 i do ,3 4 selections save myself points which the leader could have done and retained his lead given i or others in contention get 9 losers

3 i do 9 selections and hope for the best knowing if i get 9 losers i am out

4 play the game in the spirit of its intention given that the leader and 2nd and most others have submitted 9 entries.

5 stop being a PRAT and ffs just pick 9 horses if u win you win if you lose you lose. ????

So option 5 it is. Good luck every one.

[azzybear]

gran luna 12.15 grand voyage 12.45 pekin rose 12.50 

[azzybear]

pipe smoker 12.28

[The Equaliser]

Loads of horses to choose from but I have restricted my bets in the hope of minimising losses and potentially maximising gains

My Trixie today is:

1.17 Kel Cedar Hill 5/2

3.20 Don Zambella 11/10

3.35 Nb Fern Hill 5/2

1 x 4 pts win Trixie = poss return of 54.6 points

Singles:

2.00 Nb Dashel Drasher 2 pts win at 5.5 poss profit 8.82

3.35 Nb Patroclus 2 pts win at 5.5 poss profit 8.82 (looks like a poor turnout for the Henderson yard today but I'll take a saver on this one should Fern Hill not fire)

Total points staked = 8

Good luck to all punting today; it all looks a bit tricky to me

[Nigwilliam]

59 minutes ago, azzybear said:

gran luna 12.15 grand voyage 12.45 pekin rose 12.50 

Well done. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by Nigwilliam
PC.

[azzybear]

thanks nigwilliam 

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 offer selections.

LEOP	1.45	Ontheropes	6.00
NEWB	2.00	Dashel Drasher	4.00
LEOP	2.20	Echoes In Rain	4.00
DONC	2.50	Cat Tiger	4.50
NEWB	3.05	Gringo Daubrelle	7.50
DONC	3.20	Nada To Prada	7.50
NEWB	3.35	Flash Collonges	4.00

[fd1972uk]

Done a flash odds on teachupoo and sharjah 9/4.

 

Dysart Diamond was nowhere. 

[fd1972uk]

Forgot I had done a nap 4 fold earlier too, lol, but Kilcruit had put paid to that, would have been waiting on Zambella last.

Probably broke even or so with the flash odds. 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Southwell 6.30

Naval Captain 85/40

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Loads of horses to choose from but I have restricted my bets in the hope of minimising losses and potentially maximising gains

My Trixie today is:

1.17 Kel Cedar Hill 5/2

3.20 Don Zambella 11/10

3.35 Nb Fern Hill 5/2

1 x 4 pts win Trixie = poss return of 54.6 points

Singles:

2.00 Nb Dashel Drasher 2 pts win at 5.5 poss profit 8.82

3.35 Nb Patroclus 2 pts win at 5.5 poss profit 8.82 (looks like a poor turnout for the Henderson yard today but I'll take a saver on this one should Fern Hill not fire)

Total points staked = 8

Good luck to all punting today; it all looks a bit tricky to me

RESULTS UPDATE

What a nuisance that Grumpy Charley spoilt my Trixie today; I thought I had all bases covered.  Anyway I got a small double instead and Dashel Drasher won for me too.  Profit on the day = 10.52 points with my cumulative for December now at 47.79 points. YTD 1/1/2021 on = -185.38

Some class racing at Haydock tomorrow with a class 1 at Taunton and a class 3 at Wolves.  I have a noon appointment so don't know how much time I will have for study in the morning

[MCLARKE]

On 12/29/2021 at 1:40 PM, MCLARKE said:

BET365 4/1 offer selections.

LEOP	1.45	Ontheropes	6.00
NEWB	2.00	Dashel Drasher	4.00
LEOP	2.20	Echoes In Rain	4.00
DONC	2.50	Cat Tiger	4.50
NEWB	3.05	Gringo Daubrelle	7.50
DONC	3.20	Nada To Prada	7.50
NEWB	3.35	Flash Collonges	4.00

A quick review as we are at the end of the month.

A disappointing start with 5 winners from 53 selections, with 4 free bets. The loss to £50 stakes is a disconcerting £1,025.

These runs happen and I'm confident that it will improve in the new year.

The odds of the winners are 14% better than SP which is encouraging.