Racing Chat - Monday 27th December

[The Brigadier]

Eight terrestrial TV races to get stuck into on Monday with the ground likely to ride testing at both Kempton and Chepstow.

 

Chepstow 1.05

Venetia Williams has an outstanding record in this race winning the contest on a staggering 6 times out of the last 9 years and despite the fact that the favourite of Jonjo O’Neill’s When You’re Ready will be hard to beat it maybe worth sticking with the Williams runner Pink Legend. Williams had three in this race at the first entry stage and relies upon her 7 year old mare who’s latest poor effort at Aintree can be excused as she was badly hampered at the start. If she’s back to the form she showed previously when winning at Ascot she can run a big race. 

PINK LEGEND 2 points each way @ 8/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234 

 

Kempton 1.20

This looks poised to go to Barbary Castle trainer Alan King’s Edwardstone who will be at skinny odds to take this. His main threat today in the betting is Do Your Job who who fell last time in the Henry VIII Stakes won by Edwardstone at the 8th fence. Despite a 5lb penalty this would go the favourite but from a punting view is too short to back.

 

Chepstow 1.40

A dozen juvenile hurdlers go to post for this year’s renewal of the Finale Juvenile Hurdle run over 2 miles and a recognised Triumph Hurdle trial. Harry Fry saddles his progressive Forever Blessed who’s looked good in winning at Ffos Las and Sandown and looks sure to be competitive. Skycutter is two from two over hurdles and takes a step up in grade here. Porticello and Magistrato are two others who come here with decent enough claims but I’m be sticking with the Fry runner who’s impressed me this season and has conditions to suit. 

FOREVER BLESSED 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet Victor

 

Kempton 1.55

The 3 mile mares handicap hurdle won by Tequila Blaze 37 days ago is the key form race to evaluate here with none other than five of todays seven runners taking part. Fergal O’Brien’s 7 year old was ridden out to win by 4 1/2L with Coded Message (7lb better here for a beating of 5 1/4L) back in 4th, Go Millie Go (7lb better for 5 3/4L) 5th, Martha Brae who went off favourite 7 1/2L back in 6th with Paul Nicholls’ Get The Appeal 7th. I don’t see any real reason why Tequia Blaze can’t confirm that form on softer ground here and she’s the one they all have to beat. 

TEQUILA BLAZE 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Chepstow 2.10

A small field of only seven go to post here with favourite Take Your Time the one to beat following wins at Ffos Las and over course and distance and with only a 5lb rise looks sure to be involved in the finish. His biggest danger may well come from Kateson who has a good record here (2 wins from 3 starts) and ran well last time. 

TAKE YOUR TIME 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Kempton 2.30

All eyes in the Desert Orchid Chase run over 2 miles will be on the re-appearing Shishkin who looked very special last season when winning all 5 of his chase starts in his novice season culminating in wins at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. He’s not been seen since April and has had his wind done since. He has a big danger danger here in Tingle Creek winner Greaneteen but receives 3lb from his rival today and can take this in his stride. Again like Edwardstone he’ll be too short to really back although maybe a double the pair maybe the way to go.

 

Chepstow 2.50

The feature race of the day is the Coral Welsh Grand National run over a stamina sapping 3m 6F 130yds which on soft ground will take some getting. Last year’s winner Secret Reprieve won like a horse that had just jumped into the race two from home but has had issues since and hasn’t been seen since. He is only 6lb higher mind and with Native River running he keeps the weights down for Evan William’s 7 year old who if straight enough is without doubt the one they all have to beat. 2019 winner Potters Corner is also running and holds each way claims along with plenty of others. Iwilldoit won the Welsh National trial over the course but 6F shorter but he wasn’t stopping and he should run well also. But in a wide open handicap if Secret Reprieve is anywhere near the horse he was this time last year he wins this. 

SECRET REPRIEVE 2 points each way @ 9/2 1/5th 1234567

IWILLDOIT 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123456

 

Kempton 3.10

Eleven go to post for this 3 miles class 2 handicap chase where I think there is a decent bet here. Welsh trainer Christian Williams saddles three runners in top weight Kitty’s Light who flopped last time out in the Ladbroke Trophy, Five Star Getaway and last years runner up Cap Du Nord. It’s the latter that really takes my eye under 7lb conditional jockey Ellis Collier who’s struck up such a good partnership with Uno Mas this season winning four times. Collier looks excellent value for his claim and has won 5 races from just 18 starts. Ap Du Nord was beaten 3 1/4L into second place in this contest last year by Royal Pagaille which was an excellent effort when you consider that winner is now rated 23lb higher and is ranked as one of the best staying chasers in training. It was 19L back to the third that day and Double Shuffle who is only a pound better off here. Christin William’s charge can race today off of the same handicap mark (4lb lower if taking Collier’s claim into account) and if in the same form looks a good bet today. 

CAP DU NORD 3 points each way @ 4/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

 

 

[ipswich45]

3 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Chepstow 2.10

A small field of only seven go to post here with favourite Take Your Time the one to beat following wins at Ffos Las and over course and distance and with only a 5lb rise looks sure to be involved in the finish. His biggest danger may we’ll come from Kateson who has a good record here (2 wins from 3 starts) and ran well last time. 

TAKE YOUR TIME 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

thanks for jinxing my owners group runner tomorrow @The Brigadier ?     in all seriousness Take Your Time has been unreal over 3m this year and you just have to look at his last run over C&D coming from what i would have said at the time nowhere whilst being ridden fairly hard by Lorcan Williams    ? we have a good run from him and comes back home safe and sound first of all

 

3 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Chepstow 2.50

Im going along the lines of Venetia Williams horse #14 Hold That Taught to win     9/1 William Hill,   the other one i quite liked was Highland Hunter also at 9/1 with William Hill