Racing Chat - Saturday November 13th

[The Brigadier]

Six races on terrestrial TV on Saturday - 4 from Cheltenham and a brace from Lingfield. No rain in the forecast so the ground at Cheltenham is likely to ride on the soft side of good. Here’s my early thoughts and staking plan for the sextet. 

 

Cheltenham 1.40

Once more a disappointing turnout for a novice chase with only 4 due to go to post for this 2m grade 2 contest. It’s hard to look beyond Third Time Lucki who was so impressive at the October meeting when coasting home from subsequent Navan winner Buddy Rich. What impressed most about that victory was his effortless jumping and a similar round of jumping should see him come home an easy winner. Mick Pastor and Captain Tom Cat met in the Rising Stars Novices Chase last weekend at Wincanton with the latter coming out 2 1/4L to the good and despite the runner up that day being 5lb better off here can confirm the form and take runners up spot. 

THIRD TIME LUCKI to beat CAPTAIN TOM CAT 1 point straight forecast

 

Cheltenham 2.15

The feature race of the day and what a cracker it is. A maximum field of 20 go to post on perfect jumping ground for this years renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup run over 2m 4F 44yds. It has a wide open look to it with the Skelton’s novice from last year  Protektorat towards the top of the market along with Lalor who’s joined Paul Nicholls from Kayleigh Woolacott and been given a wind operation. Last year’s 1-2 Coole Cody and Spiritofthegames are back to renew rivalry with the latter now 8lb better off for 3 1/4L. The horse I like though did also run in the race last year when going off favourite and finishing 3rd beaten 4 1/4L and that’s Al Dancer. He’s has an excellent record fresh (1111) and has plenty of decent form on this track. He’s left Nigel Twiston Davies since the end of last season and joined the up and coming handler Sam Thomas, most famous for his association as a jockey with the great Denman. He’ll be ridden by his usual pilot Sam Twiston Davies and looks decent each way value to me. Galahad Quest is a horse at the foot of the weights that can also run well following an eye catching run at Wetherby a fortnight ago. With such a big field you’re going to need plenty of luck in running and I’ll be having a small saver on the aforementioned Coole Cody who as a habitual front runner will be out and away from any scrimmaging behind him and that may count for a lot here. 

AL DANCER 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 123456

COOLE CODY 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5^th 123456

 

Cheltenham 2.50

11 go to post for this 3 mile handicap hurdle with quite a few holding decent chances. The Skelton’s Proschema improved for a step up to this trip last time when runner up in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby and has been shunted up 3lb for that fine effort. He’s a player here. Kansas City Chief was a shock winner of a similar contest at the last meeting but has been put up 5lb for that and this does look tougher so is overlooked here. There are doubts over the trip for Shannon Bridge and Valentino Dancer and I like the look of the handicap debutant Dragon Bones here. Trained by Ian Williams and ridden by 3lb conditional Charlie Todd he has been consistent as a novice winning 4 of his 6 starts (unseated when likely to have won on one of the other starts) and appeared to improve for the step up to this trip at the last meeting when a length runner up to an decent Irish novice. 10L away back in third that day was Fergal O’Brien’s Onagatheringstorm and he reappears today on 9lb better terms so shouldn’t be far away. 

DRAGON BONES 2 points each way @ 4/1 1/5 1234 William Hills

 

Lingfield 3.05

12 go to post for the listed Golden Rose Stakes run over 6F and I think there’s a horse here worth a good go at. Last years winner Good Effort, trained at Newmarket by Ismail Mohammed is three from three at the track and the best in at today’s weights. He was last seen racing at Belmont Park in the States on the dirt which didn’t seem to suit and back on his favourite track he can make all from stall 8. Jim Crowley comes in for the ride for the first time and with very little early pace on will no doubt hope to get across and lead them all a merry dance. 

GOOD EFFORT 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hills

 

Cheltenham 3.25

A 2m 5F handicap hurdle with the Dan Skelton trained Unexpected Party who. Add a mockery of his initial handicap mark a fortnight ago when coasting home in a Wetherby novices handicap hurdle.  He’s now 11lb higher in a better race and at the prices doesn’t appeal that much. Olly Murphy is having a real purple patch at the moment and he sends his Mackelduff here who impressed when winning at Aintree last month and has been put up 7lb for that effort. He won well that day and as this is only his 5th career start theatre may well still be improvement to come. There is a trip doubt about top weight Benson whilst  Gowel Road also has to conclusively prove he stays the trip as does Pyramid Place. 

MACKELDUFF 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hills

 

Lingfield 3.40

A 10F listed contest that sees the return of Group 1 Coronation Cup winner Pyledriver who has to carry a 7lb penalty here and at the prices doesn’t appeal to me with this race presumably been used  as a prep race for the Japan Cup. Last years winner Dubai Warrior has left John Gosden now and is in the care of David Loughnane but doesn’t look the same horse to be honest. The horse I like is Felix who’ s course figures read 122 and following a 119 day lay off can be competitive here. 

FELIX 2 points each way @ 7/2 BetVictor 1/5^th 123

 

 

 

 

[calva decoy]

Will give Cheltenham & rest of the jump meetings a miss whilst there's Summer jumping ground around most of the country .

305 Lingfield - JUDICIAL 9/1 ew  2nd 12/1

Won this race 2 years ago & from a similar high draw .

340 Lingfield - HARROVIAN 7/1 ew 2nd 9/1 

1 of 2 in the field for J.Gosden who's saddled the last 2 winners of the race .

Edited November 13, 2021 by calva decoy
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