Racing Chat - Friday October 8th

[The Brigadier]

ITV are showing 9 races Friday afternoon and with the ground drying at Newmarket I’m expecting perfect ground there with just a slight ease whilst at York the ground is likely to be soft. Here’s my thoughts on the nine:-  

Newmarket 1.50

The Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes is run over 5F and has this year attracted a healthy turn out of 13 runners. Likely favourite is the Hugo Palmer trained Hierarchy who was just touched off in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury last time and drops to the minimum trip here. He is a major player and should go very close if handling the slightly easier ground. Irish raider Twilight Jet will handle the ground and comes here on the back of his best run when 5th of 10 beaten only a length and a half in the Group 1 Middle Park and like Hierarchy is also dropping in distance.  Although the stalls are placed in the centre it wouldn’t be a shock to see the field navigate over to this stands side as in previous meetings meaning that high numbers may have an advantage. With Hierarchy drawn in 13 as opposed to Twilight Jet in stall 2 he is the small stakes selection. 

HIERARCHY 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

Chepstow 2.10

Just short of 3 miles this is a veterans handicap chase with a wide open look to it. David Pipe has his Nicholshayne team in fine form currently and won this race two years ago with the likeable Vieux Lion Rouge off of a 6lb lower mark and can go close to repeating that feat on his first run since falling in the Grand National in April. His owner Professor Caroline Tisdall actually sponsors this race so you would think that her own horse will be primed to try and win back her money. It’s a tough contest mind as plenty are having their first run of the season and without market clues just a small wager is suggested. 

VIEUX LION ROUGE 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5^th 123 Bet365

 

Newmarket 2.25

An open looking Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes which is for two year old fillies. Good American was impressive when winning on her debut but that was only a Salisbury maiden and although the runner up that day has won since this represents a big step up in grade on easier ground. Gifted Gold is a similar type in that she won her maiden at Newcastle (2nd won since) but faces stiffer opposition here. Pearl Glory followed up wins at Lingfield and Salisbury by a one length second spot in the Group 3 Dick Poole at Salisbury and is another witch claims. Alllayaali and Perfect News come here on the back of nursery wins and are others to respect. It’s a hard race to crack with slight preference for Allayaali who impressed when winning a Doncaster nursery and may have more to offer here. 

ALLAYAALI  1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5^th 123 Bet365

 

Chepstow 2.45

The Persian War Novices Hurdle signals the start of the National Hunt season for some and this years renewal run over 2m 3F 100yds has 8 nice novices going to post. Bar the two outsiders the remaining six can all be given a chance with the Nicky Henderson trained First Street who’s chasing a hat trick in with a good chance. Also in with a big chance is the Paul Nicholls trained Paso Doble who made all the running when winning easily at Kempton in May. Nicholls took this meeting by storm last season with 4 winners a piece on both the Friday and Saturday and would have had many decent novices to pick from to run here. To small stakes he’s the pick here. 

PASO DOBLE 1 point win @ 3/1 Bet365 

 

Newmarket 3.00

The Group 2 Godolphin Stud & Stable Staff Awards Challenge Stakes is run over 7F and has attracted 9 runners this year. The Godolphin pair Al Suhail and D’bai met last time out with the latter finishing 3/4L ahead of his stable companion and can confirm that form today. Chindit drops a furlong and is the best in here at the weights and should be thereabouts. With Thanks bounced back to form last weekend in soft ground at Ascot but may find the drying ground against him whilst Double Or Bubble would have preferred rattling fast summer ground and is dismissed for those reasons. John Quinn’s Safe Voyage has been a fine servant over the years and this eight year old maybe the best value in the race. Ideally he would want it even softer but I believe there will be sufficient cut in the ground for him to perform to his best. 7F with cut in the ground are his optimum conditions and I’ll be playing small each way. 

SAFE VOYAGE 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5 123 Bet365

 

York 3.15

A competitive 20 runner 1 mile handicap with bookmakers currently betting 8/1 the field. The ground is officially soft here and my two against the field are both proven mudlarks. Top weight Raising Sand may now be into the veteran stage but with the ground in his favour and a favourable low draw I can see him running well despite top weight. He’s 6lb lower than his last winning mark so is no doubt well handicapped. Nicola Currie has won on him in the past and gets the leg up today. My main selection though is last years winner Ouzo who has fallen to the identical handicap mark that he was successful from that day with the only negative being that he is drawn so wide in stall 19 which may not be ideal. Sean Levey is in the saddle today. 

OUZO 1 point each way @ 9/11/5^th 123456 Paddy Power

RAISING SAND 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 1/5^th 12345 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 3.35

Inspiral heads the market for the Group 1 Fillies Mile and will be very hard to beat as long as she handles ground with some ease in it. Currently favourite for both the 2022 1000 Guineas and Oaks she’s done nothing wrong in her three career starts to date winning a Newmarket maiden, Sandown listed contest and the Group 2 Doncaster May Hill all in the style of a very smart filly. Frankie Dettori has been on board for all three starts and keeps the association going today. Wild Beauty is comfortably held on Sandown form whilst Mise En Scene, a winner of the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood will need to raise her game further to worry John and Thady Gosden’s favourite. The Aidan O’Brien candidate Concert Hall has to be taken seriously but this for me is all about Inspiral and she’s a confident selection. 

INSPIRAL 5 points win @ 4/5 William Hill 

 

York 3.50

13 go to post for this 14F three year old handicap with top weight Mahrajaan a progressive handicapper trained by William Haggas and owned by Shadwell who will be a tough nut to crack. A ready winner at Hamilton over 12F in August he steps up 2F in trip which hopefully will suit and he can take this before warranting a step up in grade. Ravenscraig Castle was third in the Melrose over course and distance at the Ebor meeting and looks a danger along with Surrey Gold who looks a horse with a bit more to offer. 

MAHRAJAAN 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

Newmarket 4.10

A competitive 15 runner 12F handicap for three year olds with many progressive sorts. Top weight Siskany has done little wrong this season and has been gelded since last seen at Goodwood in July when runner up in a valuable three year olds 12F handicap. He goes on any ground and with the Charlie Appleby team in such fine form this Autumn looks sure to be thereabouts. Also towards the top of the handicap is Charlie Fellowes’s Injazati who’s chasing a four timer though is up 7lb for his latest success at Newbury. Roger Varian’s Moshaawer is dropping in trip from his excellent second in the Melrose at York and is another possible if coping with the 2F shorter distance whilst Boltaway is worth a mention as he’s also been in top form of late for trainer Roger Charlton. Many with chances but I’ll take Siskany to see them all off. 

SISKANY  3 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

 

[ipswich45]

Port Macquarie in Australia has a few decent races overnight

Race 5 (0550) Port Macq Sprint    1200m  -  #10 Nicci Trix   
Safado comes into this on a 18 week break following a 8th place finish at Eagle Farm and won a race prior to that, since the 18 week break has won a trial at Scone on the 15th September over 1000m and could go well, Jailbreak finished half a length 3rd place at Dubbo on the 12th September may give Nicci Trix the most to think about if coming on for that 3rd place finish, Snowzone won 4 starts ago at Doomben over 1200m and since then best finished 6th at Gold Coast 2 starts ago and is drawn in stall 1 for this contest which could help, Liberty Sun was beaten by a length on the 22nd September at Gosford over 1200m and 2 out of 4 lifetime wins (from 19 starts) have been on dry ground, Nicci Trix has 3 wins from 8 starts latest race finishing 4th at Randwick on the 18th September 2 lengths behind winner could easily make the frame given all wins have been 2nd time out following a long break

Race 6 (0625) Hastings Cup    1500m    - #2 Prima Stella
Northern Knight won last time out at Newcastle over a trip of 1400m by 2 lengths and has won 2 from 6 this season also boasts 2 place attempts at Port Macquarie, Prima Stella comes into this after winning last 2 starts at Taree most recently and Casino that was following 2x 2nd places and a 3rd place prior to that and for me is the one to beat, Magic Charlee comes into this from 3 wins from 10 starts this season including last time out at Lismore place chance, Big Surprise has won 3 from 9 this campaign 5th last time out at Randwick won at Gosford start before that

Race 7 (0705) Port Macquarie Cup   2000m  -  #6 Unamerican
Achiever has won 3 from a career 19 starts latest finishing 3rd at Rosehill downside has a wide draw to overcome but does have speed to potentially overcome that and get in the place frame, Our Intrigue won 3 starts ago at Kemble Grange and backed that up with a 2nd place however most recently finished 5th of 8 at Rosehill beaten 5 lengths boasts 4 wins from 24 starts and if putting that Rosehill race behind should be up there, Unamerican comes into this finishing 3rd at Gosford following back to back wins and has 5 wins from 21 career starts and is 2 from 4 this season, Fast Talking has placed all 3 starts this season  beaten only 1.6L total and has 5 wins from 36 career starts  4 on dry ground puts it in the mix