Racing Chat - Saturday October 2nd

[The Brigadier]

8 races on ITV Saturday afternoon and the ground looks likely to ease with plenty of rain around the country so with that in mind I’ve looked at them on softish ground.

 

Newmarket 1.45

A well contested 10F three year old fillies handicap looks open with many fillies holding claims. Swoon trained by local trainer Sir Michael Stoute is the most interesting runner in the 14 strong field, coming here having won novice stakes contests at Wolverhampton and Carlisle and shouldn’t mind if the ground was to soften up being by Frankel out of a mare who adored soft ground. Her initial mark of 86 looks workable and she should be thereabouts. Roger Varian saddles two in Ms Ghandi and Ensemble and it’s the latter who maybe best of that pair although she has yet to encounter easy ground. Achelois is towards the head of the market and rightly so having won three of her last five starts including on soft ground at Goodwood in July. It’s a tough competitive handicap where stakes should be kept small but preference may just be for the William Buick ridden Achelois for her trainer Andrew Balding. 

ACHELOIS 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 1234 BetVictor 

 

Ascot 2.05

A 5F listed race with several sprinters contesting this who have been on the go all season. The best in at the weights is Minzaal but he hasn’t been seen since finishing third in the Middle Park over a year ago. Hurricane Ivor arrives in top form but does have to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his Group 3 victory at Newbury last time out.  Tis Marvellous was just behind Hurricane Ivor last time and has claims although if the ground went very soft that wouldn’t suit either of that pair. Dakota Gold has won the last two runnings of this race and won’t mind slow ground so he has to be a player but the horse I’m interested in is Karl Burke’s three year old sprinter Significantly who’s already shown decent form at the Berkshire track with his best effort coming on heavy ground at the Royal meeting when winning the 5F three year olds handicap. Just behind Hurricane Ivor and Tis Marvellous at Newbury last time after starting slowly he may be able to turn the tables now with a cleaner start back on slower ground. 

SIGNIFICANTLY 1 1/2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 123 Bet365

 

Newmarket 2.20

A maximum field of 30 go to post for this 6F Tattersalls October Auction Stakes with prize money all the way down to tenth position. There’s a vast majority of these that have no realistic chance and despite the numbers the main contenders can be singled out. Fearby won’t mind easy ground and Ed Bethell has booked Ryan Moore to ride his colt. He’s the best treated in the race and has to be part of any staking plan. Others with claims include the Marco Botti trained Tatsumaki who’s on a hat trick of victories following wins on the July course here and on the all weather at Newcastle whilst Ed Walker’s Piffle, owned by his mother is another on a hat trick although both that pair have yet to encounter easy ground. Richard Hannon does well in this type of race and it would be no shock if his Foden stepped up from his easy 5 1/2L Lingfield soft ground maiden from 105 days ago and was competitive. Also in with a shout is the Simon Pearce trained Stubble Field who pushed the favourite all the way on his debut in a Ascot novices stakes. I’ll play Fearby as my main bet but can’t resist an each way play on Foden also. 

FEARBY 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

FODEN 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5^th 12345

 

Ascot 2.40

The Cumberland Lodge Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over 12F with the likely favourite being Hukum who has to carry a 3lb penalty here for his Group 3 Newbury victory in August. He was rather disappointing last time out when turned over at odds on on the all weather and although he will probably enjoy racing back on the turf looks scant value to me at around the 2/1 mark. I’ll take him on with the progressive Roger Varian runner Title who on official ratings at these weights today only has a pound to find with Hukum. He bolted up in a Doncaster handicap on easy ground over this trip at the Leger meeting and although this represents a step up in grade let’s not forget he was third in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot to Arc outsider Alenquer. Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn comes here in decent form also and can also make his presence felt but I’ll stick with Title. 

TITLE 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365 

 

Newmarket 2.55

The Group 1 Sun Chariot is the feature race of the day run over 1 mile of the Rowley mile for three year old fillies and mares. The front two in the betting have solid chances in Aidan O’Brien’s Mother Earth who was very unlucky in Ireland last time and has been a model of consistency throughout her career (only ever been out of the frame once in 14 career starts). She looks sure to be thereabouts. Snow Lantern is another consistent filly trained by Richard Hannon who had Mother Earth 1/2L behind in second when winning the Falmouth Stakes on the July course here back in July. There shouldn’t be much between them today.  If the ground was too easy further that would be against the likes of Primo Bacio and Lavenders Blue with Irish raider Epona Plays becoming interesting if the ground went bad. I’ll take Snow Lantern to win. 

SNOW LANTERN 1 point win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.15

A Group 3 contest over 6F with the conditions looking spot on for the Archie Watson trained Glen Shiel who loves the mud. Officially the best in at these weights today he’s back at the scene of his Group 1 victory at Champions Day last Autumn under Hollie Doyle. He’s run well all season and today’s conditions look ideal for him having to carry  no penalty for that Group 1 victory. With Hollie Doyle not around Paul Mulrennan gets the call up and he has actually won on the horse last year. Great Ambassador ran a blinder in the Ayr Gold Cup when comprehensively winning his race on his side but was chinned on the line by the enterprisingly ridden Bielsa on the other side of the track. He’s 8lb better off with Bielsa here and has obvious claims though he’s one who doesn’t want soft ground so if the ground is on the boggy side preference is for Glen Shiel. If the ground got very bad then I wouldn’t be shocked to see Joseph Tuite’s new acquisition Lullaby Moon run well. He won the Redcar Two Hear Old Trophy over 6F on soft ground on this day last year and has been campaigned over further in three starts this season for Ralph Beckett. If the ground gets very bad he’s worth a small each way interest. 

GLEN SHIEL 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

LULLABY MOON (only if ground is soft/heavy) 1/2 point each way @ 40/1 1/5^th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Redcar 3.35

A smaller field than normal for the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy with 15 going to post for this listed contest run over 6F. The ground is key here with market leaders Vintage Clarets and Chipotle both unproven on soft ground. With doubts over those I’m going to take a chance a throw a dart at a big priced runner in the Adrian Nicholls runner Poetikel Piece who has had the one run when 6th of 8 in a fast ground Haydock maiden. Hardly form good enough to trouble horses rated in the 90’s and even 100’s but he lost his chance at the start that day and his canny trainer who has in his care the smart three year old sprinter Mo Celita, who’s won 5 of her 7 starts this season, must feel she has more to offer as he gave her a Cheveley park entry earlier in the season. Being by Mayson she may well appreciate some cut in the ground and at a monster price is worth a small each way interest (especially with those firms offering enhanced place terms). 

POETIKEL PIECE 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.50

The final ITV race today and in my opinion the best bet of the day in the Clive Cox trained River Nymph. A 18 runner 7F heritage handicap although with plenty of the wet stuff around it would not be a shock if we were to see a few non runners prior to post time. Cox has two entered in this contest in the aforementioned River Nymph and the progressive Aratus. Adam Kirby has ridden both and it seems significant that he has chosen the former here with the most important factor surely the ground as River Nymph needs the mud whereas Aratus is seemingly better on a sounder surface. He could easily be taken out if the rain persists tomorrow. River Nymph did us a favour when coming late under Kirby to win the Victoria Cup over course and distance back in May and is only 4lb higher now. He’s kept pattern company since and his recent 4th to Silent Escape at Newbury can be marked up as he was struck into and lost a shoe during the race. He should confirm the form from that run with Symbolize , Tomfre , Fundamental and Mums Tipple who were all behind him. Aldaary likes the mud and has kept his form throughout the season. He can also run well today for the Shadwell team of Haggas and Crowley. Also in with a chance is bottom weight Fresh who loves soft ground but has never raced at 7F so has to prove his stamina. I’m very keen on River Nymph who has plenty going for him and can be backed at an each way price still with enhanced places. 

RIVER NYMPH 2 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 ¼ 1234 Bet365

 

[ipswich45]

some good overnight Aussie action and below are my Flemington picks and Kalgoolie cup pick

Flemington, Kalgoolie, Randwick, Murtoa and Wagga have big races but please note that not all UK Bookmakers offer all aussie meetings

Flemington (9 race card)
0310 - All horses on debut 
0340 - 3 Character    4th
0415 - 2 Elusive Express  WON
0450 - 2 Splintex 4th
0525 - 4 Ranch Hand  Unplaced
0605 - 9 Annavisto Unplaced
0645 - 1 Sir Dragonet Unplaced
0725 - 13 Tralee Rose 2nd
0805 - 14 Just Folk  2nd

Kalgoolie (Kalgoolie Cup)
0945 - 5 Living The Dream    WON
 

Edited October 2, 2021 by ipswich45
results being added