Racing Chat - Friday 3rd September

[roger2256]

16.20 Newcastle 

City Vaults 16/1 

Price as of now b365 

18.22 DR Hammersmith 9/1 b365 

Edited September 3, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[The Equaliser]

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

3.20 Nc Brazen Bolt 2/1                                                     Alt (7) 8/1 & (10) 9/1 (1/2 point win on each)

4.55 Nc Dusky Lord 5/6                                                     Alt (7) 7/4 & (2) 14/1

1.10 Hd Miramichi 11/4                                                      Alt (2) 3/1 & (3) 9/2

1.45 Hd Virtiginous 1/3 DTR                                              No bet

1.55 Asc Saga 5/6 DTR                                                     (3) 16/5 & (4) 18/1

3.05 Asc Love Is Golden 13/8                                            (1) 11/4 & (4) 5/2

3.45 Dwn R Brostleigh 15/8    DTR                                   (3) 15/8 & (7) 11/4

4.50 Dwn R Snaffles1/2 DTR                                            No Bet 2/5  & 4/11 with some bookies   

6.22 Dwn R Silent Performance 7/2 DTR   ***                   Alt (10) 9/2 & (9) 5/1

6.52 Dwn R Dollar Value (5/4)                                         Alt (6) 9/4 & (1) 9/2

6.37 Kilb Nere Rock 6/5 DTR                                          Alt (6) 85/40 & (2) 11/4

5.45 Km Pavlodar 9/4                                                     Alt (6) 9/4 & (4) 10/3

7.15 Km Jumbly 4/5                                                        Alt (2) 2/1 & (3) 12/1

*** In the 6.22 at Down Royal I have had £2 to win on Silent Performance at 4.8 = £7.45.  It may be a bit early to write this but I feel that if one can get 3/1plus odds against on these big 3 selections then this could be a profitable bet.  Resourceful Man yesterday & Mother Country the day before drifted to 6/1 from my price of 10/3 on the day are examples.  I will do this for the rest of September using £2 win stakes.  I am becoming more convinced that @Zilzalianis right in as much as, that if one is obtaining a list of selections using the same criteria then back the one(s) at the higher price.  I have up to now been cautious in as much as if I were say to back a horse at 2/1, I would put £10 on it to win £20 or if the horse was 10/1 then put £2 to win on it to get the same profit.  However, I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1 shot but  what I am trying to get at is that by reducing the stakes proportionately to the same profit, assuming that the market will in the end balance out 33% chances over 9% chances is not necessarily the best way to bet.  The fear is that by proportionately reducing one's stake as described above one is wringing out a lot of profit that could have been had if one was a bit bolder and placed higher amounts on the larger priced selections.