Racing Chat - Saturday August 7th

[The Brigadier]

It’s not for everyone but it’s Shergar Cup day on Saturday at Ascot after a years absence. Once again I’m spending the day looking as much at weather forecasts as form books!

It’s already good to soft at Haydock with more rain to come so I’m looking at the two ITV races there as soft ground whilst Ascot as on the slow side of good. If you are playing at Ascot today make sure that you bet with the few firms that are paying 4 places. Anyway here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV races on Saturday -

 

Ascot 1250

The 5F Dash starts the Shergar meeting and a typically tough race it is. A case can be made for plenty here and stakes should be kept to a minimum. The last two winners of this contest are back in Tis Marvelous (2018) and Stone Of Destiny (2019). The former is arguably the form horse coming here on the back of a good third at the track a fortnight ago. He ideally though would prefer a better surface. Stone Of Destiny tops the weights and hails from the very much in form yard of Andrew Balding’s. He’s been plying his trade in group races recently and a drop back into handicap company can see him do well although he too wouldn’t want the ground any worse than good to soft. 

STONE OF DESTINY 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5 1234 Paddy Power

 

Ascot 125

The Shergar Cup Stayers is run over just short of two miles and a good bet here is the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Uber Cool who will be ridden by James Doyle. The 7 year old gelding defied a 959 day absence to win at Chester on good to soft ground back in May and has been given a ten week break since to get over that effort. He’s been shunted up 5lb but that may not stop this improving horse who’s won 7 of his 14 career starts on ground varying between good to firm to heavy. Call My Bluff is on a hat trick here following wins at Nottingham and Chester and any further easing of the ground will be in his favour. East Asia is maybe the biggest danger though stepping back up to  2 miles following a good 5th over 1m 6F at Newmarket last time. 

UBER COOL 3 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Ascot 200

The Shergar Cup Challenge is run over 12F and with the ground easing my two against  the field are Sam Cooke and Spanish Kiss. Preference is for the latter who had alternative entries this weekend in the Stayers race and also at Newmarket. William Knight’s gelding was very impressive when winning at York (from subsequent smart winner Live Your Dream) and at Newmarket before a slightly disappointing 5th over 14F here when the race didn’t pan out for him. He’s a pound lower now and has the assistance of UAE based jockey Tadhg O’Shea. Group One Power finished ahead of Sam Cooke at Chester last time but isn’t certain to confirm that form. Spanish Kiss is a confident selection. 

SPANISH KISS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Haydock 225

A good third to Guru at Ascot last time, Roger Varian’s Frankel colt may handle the likely soft conditions better than his opponents and win this 1 mile handicap. Royal Mews is an interesting runner trained by the Gosden’s but has only run on the all weather so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll cope with today’s boggy terrain. I’ll stick with the proven soft ground form of Fantastic Fox to be ridden by the owners retained jockey Silvestre De Sousa. 

FANTASTIC FOX 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Ascot 235

Bear  Force One EW

The Shergar Cup Mile has filled with ten runners and once again has an open look about the race. There was some decent money around last week for Roger Teal’s Bear Force One at Doncaster when trying 10F for the first time. He may have not stayed or possibly needed that run (his first for 104 days) and like last year can win on his third start of the season with Shergar Cup veteran Hayley Turner in the saddle. Likely favourite is Dance Fever who’s third last time out here over 7F is good form. He appears to have a preference for fast ground though and has been pulled out twice in his career because of the ground easing. 

BEAR FORCE ONE 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5^th 1234

 

Newmarket 250

The Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes has attracted 11 runners this season and can go to the favourite Wild Beauty trained locally by Charlie Appleby for the Godolphin operation. The best 2 year old filly I’ve seen this year is the Gosden’s Inspiral who won well at Sandown and had Wild Beauty 3 1/2L back in third that day. That piece of form alone gives her a winning chance today. She had the Gosden second string Sunstrike a neck away in third and should confirm the form today. That was on fast ground and she had previously won at Haydock and Newbury on soft ground so if the showers did change the ground it wouldn’t worry this Frankel filly who will be ridden by William Buick. Majestic Crown is a maiden winner trained by the very much in form Andrew Balding here last month and stepping up in trip is an interesting runner along with Value Theory who may be the biggest threat to the selection. 

WILD BEAUTY 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Ascot 310

The Shergar Cup Classic is next and is run over 1m 4F. The likely favourite is yet again a favourite today who wouldn’t want any easing of the ground. Barn Owl is a progressive handicapper trained by Roger Charlton but was pulled out because of the softening ground at Goodwood and with doubts about the ground is worth taking on here. Contact maybe the one to be with to small stakes. He probably didn’t truly get home over 1m 6F last time and the drop in trip here looks ideal. 

CONTACT 1 points each way @ 6/1 1/5 1234 William Hill

 

 

Ascot 345

The final race on 2021 Shergar Cup day is the Sprint for three year olds and once again the likely favourite looks ground dependent. Royal Scimitar is the form horse following a good 4th in a hot sprint handicap at the Newmarket July meeting but has twice this season been pulled out because of soft ground and with showers forecast is overlooked here. Ed Walkers’s Popmaster was actually a short head ahead of Royal Scimitar at Newmarket and although worse off at the weights may handle the conditions better and has gone on from that run to win at Doncaster on good to soft ground a week ago. Adam Kirby is in the saddle and he’s the selection here. 

POPMASTER 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Haydock 410

Warm favourite here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Real World who did us a favour at Royal Ascot when winning the Royal Hunt Cup in scintillating fashion and has followed up since in the listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury. He’s smart and will be hard to beat but has only run on a fast surface and with showers forecast and with ground conditions at Haydock always  likely to turn quickly I’m happy to look elsewhere although it would not surprise me were he to win this. Euchen Glen won’t mind if the ground softens and is a definite player here despite a 3lb penalty but the one I like here is one of the two three year olds in the race in Andrew Balding’s Foxes Tales who’s stepping up from handicap company to today’s Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes. Impressive when winning at this trip at Royal Ascot in the Golden Gates Handicap he only went down a head in a very competitive handicap at the Newmarket July meeting and won’t mind the ground as his Ascot win was gained on soft ground. I also think Stormy Antarctic can run well on his favoured ground and is worth a saver bet. 

FOXES TALES 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

STORMY ANTARCTIC 1 point win @ 10/1 Paddy Power

 

 

 

 

[Offramp]

I am in Surrey and I got drenched. I'm glad I had my silly cap in my bag. I raced to a pub. People arriving that are also soaked. It'll affect the going. I'm hoping that the sun will arise and dry things out mainly by 1pm.

Many thanks to @The Brigadier. Saturday could be a hard day to find winners.