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Racing Chat - Saturday 24th July


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Once again we’re in the lap of the gods regarding the weather for tomorrows card at Ascot. Its currently rattling fast and good to firm but with the possibility of the best part of an inch of a rain conditions could easily ease overnight. Or alternatively the localised showers could fail to materialise and we could be racing on a sound surface. I won’t be getting involved until the morning when I see how much rain the track has attracted. The forecast is a lot simpler at York with decent fast ground likely. 7 races on ITV and here’s my thoughts and betting strategy: -

 

Ascot 150

The ground is going to be so important today at Ascot that all my bets here come with a proviso only on certain ground! Stuart William’s Desert Dreamer is a strong fancy to win this but not on a soft surface (she was pulled out here back in May on soft ground). She clearly has the best form finishing runner up to System at Newmarket in a listed race and then improving further to run the smart Sandrine to 1 3/4L in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago. System re-opposes here and is the main danger but watching that race back Desert Dreamer got in plenty of trouble and I would be fairly confident that she can turn the tables on System. Oisin Murphy has ridden her on her last three starts and on fast ground is worth a good bet. 

DESERT DREAMER (no bet on good/soft or worse) 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill 

 

York 205

This 5F  “jump jockeys’ Nuntorpe” handicap is for professional jump jockeys to ride on the flat and trainer Paul Midgley has won two of the three renewals. I’m pretty certain he’ll win this again but unfortunately he’s saddling 5 of the 12 runners and deciding which of the quintet is not easy! I’ll just go with James Watt who has the assistance of leading jump jockey Brian Hughes here. He was a course and distance winner a fortnight ago and if in the same mood should be thereabouts. He’s worth a small stakes each way wager. 

JAMES WATT 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 225

The Porsche Handicap is for three year olds only and run over a mile of the Berkshire course. Mystery Smiles heads the weights and is an interesting runner as we haven’t seen him since his well beaten 10th in the 2000 Guineas in May and this represents a big drop in class. Isla Kai is on a four timer and would appreciate any rain that falls. Fantastic Fox has questions to answer now following a disappointing effort at Royal Ascot and the one I like here, although he is once again possibly ground dependent, is the Crisford’s Latest Generation. He made a well handicapped Godolphin horse pull out all the stops a fortnight ago at Newmarket and despite being raised 5lb for that appears to hold a big chance with William Buick in the saddle. His one run on soft ground was in a Group 3 as a 2 year old where he was beaten 7L so although not certain it maybe that he prefers the ground on top and if the ground did dramatically change then my confidence in him would wane. 

LATEST GENERATION 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

York 240

The Skybet Dash Handicap has attracted 16 runners and has an open look about the race. Last years 1-2 are back to renew rivalry Musica and Golden Apollo and have claims along with Mondammej who ran well last time at Ascot and sets the standard here. I love a three year old against his elders at this time of the year and I’ll take a chance to small stakes each way on bottom weight Blind Beggar who’s kept good three year old handicap company this season and has been dropped a couple of pounds since he last ran. Franny Norton rides for Richard Fahey. 

BLIND BEGGAR  1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 300

It’s not often you get to bet a 118 rated horse in a handicap but that’s what we can do here in the 7F Moët & Chandon International Stakes. Top weight Motakhayyel was ultra impressive when scooting clear of his field in the Banbury Cup on fast ground at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago and despite the handicapper reacting by putting him up 9lb to his new mark of 118 he can race here under a 3lb penalty and thus 6lb well in. This will be the last time we seen him in handicaps and as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate is worth a decent bet. Richard Hannon’s gelding comfortably holds 7 of his opponents today on that run and may have most to fear from the 10lb well in Matthew Flinders who’s drawn alongside the selection in stall 19 (I would prefer to be drawn high as at the Royal meeting that did seem the place to be). His 2nd at Chester sandwiched between higher rated horses prompted the future rise from the handicapper but that was on good to soft ground and a totally different track to Ascot’s. Danyah is the other prominent in the betting that should get a mention. He ran a stormer at the Royal meeting when chasing home Highfield Princess in the Buckingham Palace Handicap for which he’s been raised 5lb. Of the double figure priced horses the only three year old in the field Star Of Orion makes some appeal but for me as long as the ground doesn’t soften to worse than good (although he did win the 2020 Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap over course and distance on officially good to soft ground) the favourite Motakhayyel will be hard to beat. 

MOTAKHAYYEL (no bet on soft or worse) 3 points each way @ 5/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

 

York 315

The Group 2 Skybet York Stakes has attracted a small but select quintet of horses and although it’s hard to believe that either of the outsiders Bangkok and Montatham will be good enough to win you can certainly give the other three a winning chance. Juan Eleanor is only 2lb off of the top rated here Armory and comes here on the back of a listed win at Ascot in the Wolferton Stakes although he has failed to win a group race in six attempts. Armory has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his impressive Huxley Stakes win at Chester in May and was not disgraced when finishing only 1 1/2L behind stable mate Love in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has to give 12lb to William Haggas’s three year old Mohaafeth and that may be beyond him. Unbeaten in his four starts this year the Frankel colt had a rough ride round in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot before asserting and winning by 1 3/4L in the end. He looks classy and is the one to beat here as long as the ground remains fast. He was pulled out of the Derby on the day due to the easy ground so we must tread a bit cautiously in case the ground changes dramatically. 

MOHAAFETH 4 points win @ 6/5

 

Ascot 335

This year’s Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes looks a stellar renewal despite only 6 declaring. That may well come down to 5 if proven mudlark Wonderful Tonight doesn’t get her preferred soft ground. The ground once again is a factor here as Love wouldn’t want any softening of conditions whilst Epsom Derby winner Adayar would appreciate some of the wet stuff. Chuck in Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle, global jet setter Mishriff who appeared to blow up in the Eclipse last time out not forgetting Group 1 winner and Love’s stable companion Broome and you have the ingredients of a real classic. Let’s hope the rain doesn’t ruin the race. Preference for me is the O’Brien runner Love although if the ground went soft then my allegiance would switch to Adayar and so with doubts regarding the ground I’ll have a small win stake on Love. 

LOVE 2 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

 

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All bets are with bet365 and are EW.

Newcastle

2.10 Stone Axe 10/1 10th 

2.10 Tricky Business 10/3 1st ?

2.45 Soapys Sister 4/1 5th 

2.45 Miss Nay Never 4/1 1st ?

3.55 Misscarlett 11/1 2nd 

4.30 Hasty Sailor 7/2 1st ?

 

Newmarket

3.05 Modern Games 4/1 1st ?

3.05 Desert Angel 11/2 3rd 

4.50 Fools Rush In 4/1 6th

 

It has been a good day overall, hopefully some of you made a profit from my selections.  

 

Edited by alexcaruso808
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