Racing Chat - Saturday 24th July

[The Brigadier]

Once again we’re in the lap of the gods regarding the weather for tomorrows card at Ascot. Its currently rattling fast and good to firm but with the possibility of the best part of an inch of a rain conditions could easily ease overnight. Or alternatively the localised showers could fail to materialise and we could be racing on a sound surface. I won’t be getting involved until the morning when I see how much rain the track has attracted. The forecast is a lot simpler at York with decent fast ground likely. 7 races on ITV and here’s my thoughts and betting strategy: -

 

Ascot 150

The ground is going to be so important today at Ascot that all my bets here come with a proviso only on certain ground! Stuart William’s Desert Dreamer is a strong fancy to win this but not on a soft surface (she was pulled out here back in May on soft ground). She clearly has the best form finishing runner up to System at Newmarket in a listed race and then improving further to run the smart Sandrine to 1 3/4L in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago. System re-opposes here and is the main danger but watching that race back Desert Dreamer got in plenty of trouble and I would be fairly confident that she can turn the tables on System. Oisin Murphy has ridden her on her last three starts and on fast ground is worth a good bet. 

DESERT DREAMER (no bet on good/soft or worse) 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill 

 

York 205

This 5F  “jump jockeys’ Nuntorpe” handicap is for professional jump jockeys to ride on the flat and trainer Paul Midgley has won two of the three renewals. I’m pretty certain he’ll win this again but unfortunately he’s saddling 5 of the 12 runners and deciding which of the quintet is not easy! I’ll just go with James Watt who has the assistance of leading jump jockey Brian Hughes here. He was a course and distance winner a fortnight ago and if in the same mood should be thereabouts. He’s worth a small stakes each way wager. 

JAMES WATT 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 225

The Porsche Handicap is for three year olds only and run over a mile of the Berkshire course. Mystery Smiles heads the weights and is an interesting runner as we haven’t seen him since his well beaten 10th in the 2000 Guineas in May and this represents a big drop in class. Isla Kai is on a four timer and would appreciate any rain that falls. Fantastic Fox has questions to answer now following a disappointing effort at Royal Ascot and the one I like here, although he is once again possibly ground dependent, is the Crisford’s Latest Generation. He made a well handicapped Godolphin horse pull out all the stops a fortnight ago at Newmarket and despite being raised 5lb for that appears to hold a big chance with William Buick in the saddle. His one run on soft ground was in a Group 3 as a 2 year old where he was beaten 7L so although not certain it maybe that he prefers the ground on top and if the ground did dramatically change then my confidence in him would wane. 

LATEST GENERATION 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

York 240

The Skybet Dash Handicap has attracted 16 runners and has an open look about the race. Last years 1-2 are back to renew rivalry Musica and Golden Apollo and have claims along with Mondammej who ran well last time at Ascot and sets the standard here. I love a three year old against his elders at this time of the year and I’ll take a chance to small stakes each way on bottom weight Blind Beggar who’s kept good three year old handicap company this season and has been dropped a couple of pounds since he last ran. Franny Norton rides for Richard Fahey. 

BLIND BEGGAR  1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345

 

Ascot 300

It’s not often you get to bet a 118 rated horse in a handicap but that’s what we can do here in the 7F Moët & Chandon International Stakes. Top weight Motakhayyel was ultra impressive when scooting clear of his field in the Banbury Cup on fast ground at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago and despite the handicapper reacting by putting him up 9lb to his new mark of 118 he can race here under a 3lb penalty and thus 6lb well in. This will be the last time we seen him in handicaps and as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate is worth a decent bet. Richard Hannon’s gelding comfortably holds 7 of his opponents today on that run and may have most to fear from the 10lb well in Matthew Flinders who’s drawn alongside the selection in stall 19 (I would prefer to be drawn high as at the Royal meeting that did seem the place to be). His 2nd at Chester sandwiched between higher rated horses prompted the future rise from the handicapper but that was on good to soft ground and a totally different track to Ascot’s. Danyah is the other prominent in the betting that should get a mention. He ran a stormer at the Royal meeting when chasing home Highfield Princess in the Buckingham Palace Handicap for which he’s been raised 5lb. Of the double figure priced horses the only three year old in the field Star Of Orion makes some appeal but for me as long as the ground doesn’t soften to worse than good (although he did win the 2020 Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap over course and distance on officially good to soft ground) the favourite Motakhayyel will be hard to beat. 

MOTAKHAYYEL (no bet on soft or worse) 3 points each way @ 5/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 12345

 

 

York 315

The Group 2 Skybet York Stakes has attracted a small but select quintet of horses and although it’s hard to believe that either of the outsiders Bangkok and Montatham will be good enough to win you can certainly give the other three a winning chance. Juan Eleanor is only 2lb off of the top rated here Armory and comes here on the back of a listed win at Ascot in the Wolferton Stakes although he has failed to win a group race in six attempts. Armory has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his impressive Huxley Stakes win at Chester in May and was not disgraced when finishing only 1 1/2L behind stable mate Love in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has to give 12lb to William Haggas’s three year old Mohaafeth and that may be beyond him. Unbeaten in his four starts this year the Frankel colt had a rough ride round in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot before asserting and winning by 1 3/4L in the end. He looks classy and is the one to beat here as long as the ground remains fast. He was pulled out of the Derby on the day due to the easy ground so we must tread a bit cautiously in case the ground changes dramatically. 

MOHAAFETH 4 points win @ 6/5

 

Ascot 335

This year’s Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes looks a stellar renewal despite only 6 declaring. That may well come down to 5 if proven mudlark Wonderful Tonight doesn’t get her preferred soft ground. The ground once again is a factor here as Love wouldn’t want any softening of conditions whilst Epsom Derby winner Adayar would appreciate some of the wet stuff. Chuck in Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle, global jet setter Mishriff who appeared to blow up in the Eclipse last time out not forgetting Group 1 winner and Love’s stable companion Broome and you have the ingredients of a real classic. Let’s hope the rain doesn’t ruin the race. Preference for me is the O’Brien runner Love although if the ground went soft then my allegiance would switch to Adayar and so with doubts regarding the ground I’ll have a small win stake on Love. 

LOVE 2 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

 

[alexcaruso808]

All bets are with bet365 and are EW.

Newcastle

2.10 Stone Axe 10/1 10th 

2.10 Tricky Business 10/3 1st ?

2.45 Soapys Sister 4/1 5th 

2.45 Miss Nay Never 4/1 1st ?

3.55 Misscarlett 11/1 2nd 

4.30 Hasty Sailor 7/2 1st ?

 

Newmarket

3.05 Modern Games 4/1 1st ?

3.05 Desert Angel 11/2 3rd 

4.50 Fools Rush In 4/1 6th

 

It has been a good day overall, hopefully some of you made a profit from my selections.  

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by alexcaruso808

[roger2256]

July 0

1pt level stakes win only 

15.00 Asc Ropey Guest 25/1

16.25 Yor Monsieur Lambrays 4/1

17.00 Yor Baltic Baron 9/1

Prices as of now b365 

[The Brigadier]

15 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Once again we’re in the lap of the gods regarding the weather for tomorrows card at Ascot. Its currently rattling fast and good to firm but with the possibility of the best part of an inch of a rain conditions could easily ease overnight. Or alternatively the localised showers could fail to materialise and we could be racing on a sound surface. I won’t be getting involved until the morning when I see how much rain the track has attracted. The forecast is a lot simpler at York with decent fast ground likely. 7 races on ITV and here’s my thoughts and betting strategy: -

 

Ascot 150

The ground is going to be so important today at Ascot that all my bets here come with a proviso only on certain ground! Stuart William’s Desert Dreamer is a strong fancy to win this but not on a soft surface (she was pulled out here back in May on soft ground). She clearly has the best form finishing runner up to System at Newmarket in a listed race and then improving further to run the smart Sandrine to 1 3/4L in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago. System re-opposes here and is the main danger but watching that race back Desert Dreamer got in plenty of trouble and I would be fairly confident that she can turn the tables on System. Oisin Murphy has ridden her on her last three starts and on fast ground is worth a good bet. 

DESERT DREAMER (no bet on good/soft or worse) 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill 

 

York 205

This 5F  “jump jockeys’ Nuntorpe” handicap is for professional jump jockeys to ride on the flat and trainer Paul Midgley has won two of the three renewals. I’m pretty certain he’ll win this again but unfortunately he’s saddling 5 of the 12 runners and deciding which of the quintet is not easy! I’ll just go with James Watt who has the assistance of leading jump jockey Brian Hughes here. He was a course and distance winner a fortnight ago and if in the same mood should be thereabouts. He’s worth a small stakes each way wager. 

JAMES WATT 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 225

The Porsche Handicap is for three year olds only and run over a mile of the Berkshire course. Mystery Smiles heads the weights and is an interesting runner as we haven’t seen him since his well beaten 10th in the 2000 Guineas in May and this represents a big drop in class. Isla Kai is on a four timer and would appreciate any rain that falls. Fantastic Fox has questions to answer now following a disappointing effort at Royal Ascot and the one I like here, although he is once again possibly ground dependent, is the Crisford’s Latest Generation. He made a well handicapped Godolphin horse pull out all the stops a fortnight ago at Newmarket and despite being raised 5lb for that appears to hold a big chance with William Buick in the saddle. His one run on soft ground was in a Group 3 as a 2 year old where he was beaten 7L so although not certain it maybe that he prefers the ground on top and if the ground did dramatically change then my confidence in him would wane. 

LATEST GENERATION 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

York 240

The Skybet Dash Handicap has attracted 16 runners and has an open look about the race. Last years 1-2 are back to renew rivalry Musica and Golden Apollo and have claims along with Mondammej who ran well last time at Ascot and sets the standard here. I love a three year old against his elders at this time of the year and I’ll take a chance to small stakes each way on bottom weight Blind Beggar who’s kept good three year old handicap company this season and has been dropped a couple of pounds since he last ran. Franny Norton rides for Richard Fahey. 

BLIND BEGGAR  1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345

 

Ascot 300

It’s not often you get to bet a 118 rated horse in a handicap but that’s what we can do here in the 7F Moët & Chandon International Stakes. Top weight Motakhayyel was ultra impressive when scooting clear of his field in the Banbury Cup on fast ground at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago and despite the handicapper reacting by putting him up 9lb to his new mark of 118 he can race here under a 3lb penalty and thus 6lb well in. This will be the last time we seen him in handicaps and as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate is worth a decent bet. Richard Hannon’s gelding comfortably holds 7 of his opponents today on that run and may have most to fear from the 10lb well in Matthew Flinders who’s drawn alongside the selection in stall 19 (I would prefer to be drawn high as at the Royal meeting that did seem the place to be). His 2nd at Chester sandwiched between higher rated horses prompted the future rise from the handicapper but that was on good to soft ground and a totally different track to Ascot’s. Danyah is the other prominent in the betting that should get a mention. He ran a stormer at the Royal meeting when chasing home Highfield Princess in the Buckingham Palace Handicap for which he’s been raised 5lb. Of the double figure priced horses the only three year old in the field Star Of Orion makes some appeal but for me as long as the ground doesn’t soften to worse than good (although he did win the 2020 Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap over course and distance on officially good to soft ground) the favourite Motakhayyel will be hard to beat. 

MOTAKHAYYEL (no bet on soft or worse) 3 points each way @ 5/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 12345

 

 

York 315

The Group 2 Skybet York Stakes has attracted a small but select quintet of horses and although it’s hard to believe that either of the outsiders Bangkok and Montatham will be good enough to win you can certainly give the other three a winning chance. Juan Eleanor is only 2lb off of the top rated here Armory and comes here on the back of a listed win at Ascot in the Wolferton Stakes although he has failed to win a group race in six attempts. Armory has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his impressive Huxley Stakes win at Chester in May and was not disgraced when finishing only 1 1/2L behind stable mate Love in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has to give 12lb to William Haggas’s three year old Mohaafeth and that may be beyond him. Unbeaten in his four starts this year the Frankel colt had a rough ride round in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot before asserting and winning by 1 3/4L in the end. He looks classy and is the one to beat here as long as the ground remains fast. He was pulled out of the Derby on the day due to the easy ground so we must tread a bit cautiously in case the ground changes dramatically. 

MOHAAFETH 4 points win @ 6/5

 

Ascot 335

This year’s Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes looks a stellar renewal despite only 6 declaring. That may well come down to 5 if proven mudlark Wonderful Tonight doesn’t get her preferred soft ground. The ground once again is a factor here as Love wouldn’t want any softening of conditions whilst Epsom Derby winner Adayar would appreciate some of the wet stuff. Chuck in Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle, global jet setter Mishriff who appeared to blow up in the Eclipse last time out not forgetting Group 1 winner and Love’s stable companion Broome and you have the ingredients of a real classic. Let’s hope the rain doesn’t ruin the race. Preference for me is the O’Brien runner Love although if the ground went soft then my allegiance would switch to Adayar and so with doubts regarding the ground I’ll have a small win stake on Love. 

LOVE 2 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

 

0.2 mm of rain only overnight but thunderstorms expected later - currently good to firm and I'm hoping it remains the same! 

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures for the 2yo listed and g3 races at ascot,

115 ascot

1            angel blue       123

2            Mr McGann     119

150 Ascot

1              El Hadeeyah    121 (aw)        

2             delmona             118

               system                118

               zain claudette     118

Comment- they seem poor races to me but there you go, I don't use caution but i might recommend others do on these two races.

                  use the kiddies piggy bank you got plenty of time to pay that back before they grow up and slap you back if you don't.

                  

[black rabbit]

Dance Fever   3 00 Asc    1/2 pt win   20/1  betfair

Muscika  2 40  york      1/2  pt win  15/1  betfair 

Yimou  5 20  newm   1/2  pt win   10/1  betfair  

 

P/L  =  +  116.5   pts

[The Equaliser]

Not much time today.  Big fields and I suggest small stakes

The big race 3.35 Asc seems to indicate the favourite but I'm not playing.  I would love to see Adayar win this.

2.40 York Blind Beggar £2 win at 8.2 = £21.17 if it wins. Influenced by @TheBrigadierand Jason Weaver on The Opening Show

3.00 Asc Motakhayyel £1 win ins bet at 9/2 @TheBrigadier, Starshiba £1 win at 20/1 Jason weaver (TOS) and Raising Sand £1 win at 25/1 (me)

Total Stakes £5.00

 

 

[Wildgarden]

100 newcastle stand free 15.5 matchbook

225 ascot fantastic fox 5-2 most

445 ascot captain claret 14.5 matchbook

535 york pagan 6-4 most

Edited July 24, 2021 by Wildgarden

[cannotbebeat]

Newcastle
2.10 Freddy Robinson 9/4

5.05 Onesmoothoperator 11/8

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Brigadier]

3 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

0.2 mm of rain only overnight but thunderstorms expected later - currently good to firm and I'm hoping it remains the same! 

FYI ground now good to firm(firm in places) - so far missed any rain.

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Salisbury 8.05

FIRE EYES 6/5

 

[calva decoy]

450 Newm - IMPERIAL YELLOW 3/1 

520 Newm - DAZZLING DAN 7/2 

545 G.Park - DUQUESA BEACH 15/4 

835 Sali - KEEPER 3/1 

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

FYI ground now good to firm(firm in places) - so far missed any rain.

It's starting to rain now but unless it's biblical can't see the going changing much before 4.45 .

[fd1972uk]

Will maybe look at one or two others. 

[fd1972uk]

Tried money back on 1350 Ascot bets, Dreamer got my money back, but had bet system which didn't place so lost that stake. Had also took a couple of long shot e/w on a couple toon with free bets but nothing. 

Wishing I backed Soul Seeker at York 1405 picked it on Coral SS and ITV7. 

[fd1972uk]

Ah well that's went south pretty quickly, lol. 

If the last 2 on my lucky15 come up it'll cover my bet, but not holding much hope. 

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Speed figures for the 2yo listed and g3 races at ascot,

115 ascot

1            angel blue       123

2            Mr McGann     119

150 Ascot

1              El Hadeeyah    121 (aw)        

2             delmona             118

               system                118

               zain claudette     118

Comment- they seem poor races to me but there you go, I don't use caution but i might recommend others do on these two races.

                  use the kiddies piggy bank you got plenty of time to pay that back before they grow up and slap you back if you don't.

                  

MMM bit of profit on the win bets on those but the forecasts soo wiped that out....Anyone else on here think Mishrif (8/1) is too big a price? you will if it wins.

[Wildgarden]

5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

100 newcastle stand free 15.5 matchbook nowhere

225 ascot fantastic fox 5-2 most nowhere

445 ascot captain claret 14.5 matchbook nowhere

535 york pagan 6-4 most 2nd

hard day -4

Edited July 24, 2021 by Wildgarden

[The Brigadier]

23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Once again we’re in the lap of the gods regarding the weather for tomorrows card at Ascot. Its currently rattling fast and good to firm but with the possibility of the best part of an inch of a rain conditions could easily ease overnight. Or alternatively the localised showers could fail to materialise and we could be racing on a sound surface. I won’t be getting involved until the morning when I see how much rain the track has attracted. The forecast is a lot simpler at York with decent fast ground likely. 7 races on ITV and here’s my thoughts and betting strategy: -

 

Ascot 150

The ground is going to be so important today at Ascot that all my bets here come with a proviso only on certain ground! Stuart William’s Desert Dreamer is a strong fancy to win this but not on a soft surface (she was pulled out here back in May on soft ground). She clearly has the best form finishing runner up to System at Newmarket in a listed race and then improving further to run the smart Sandrine to 1 3/4L in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago. System re-opposes here and is the main danger but watching that race back Desert Dreamer got in plenty of trouble and I would be fairly confident that she can turn the tables on System. Oisin Murphy has ridden her on her last three starts and on fast ground is worth a good bet. 

DESERT DREAMER (no bet on good/soft or worse) 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill 

 

York 205

This 5F  “jump jockeys’ Nuntorpe” handicap is for professional jump jockeys to ride on the flat and trainer Paul Midgley has won two of the three renewals. I’m pretty certain he’ll win this again but unfortunately he’s saddling 5 of the 12 runners and deciding which of the quintet is not easy! I’ll just go with James Watt who has the assistance of leading jump jockey Brian Hughes here. He was a course and distance winner a fortnight ago and if in the same mood should be thereabouts. He’s worth a small stakes each way wager. 

JAMES WATT 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 225

The Porsche Handicap is for three year olds only and run over a mile of the Berkshire course. Mystery Smiles heads the weights and is an interesting runner as we haven’t seen him since his well beaten 10th in the 2000 Guineas in May and this represents a big drop in class. Isla Kai is on a four timer and would appreciate any rain that falls. Fantastic Fox has questions to answer now following a disappointing effort at Royal Ascot and the one I like here, although he is once again possibly ground dependent, is the Crisford’s Latest Generation. He made a well handicapped Godolphin horse pull out all the stops a fortnight ago at Newmarket and despite being raised 5lb for that appears to hold a big chance with William Buick in the saddle. His one run on soft ground was in a Group 3 as a 2 year old where he was beaten 7L so although not certain it maybe that he prefers the ground on top and if the ground did dramatically change then my confidence in him would wane. 

LATEST GENERATION 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

 

York 240

The Skybet Dash Handicap has attracted 16 runners and has an open look about the race. Last years 1-2 are back to renew rivalry Musica and Golden Apollo and have claims along with Mondammej who ran well last time at Ascot and sets the standard here. I love a three year old against his elders at this time of the year and I’ll take a chance to small stakes each way on bottom weight Blind Beggar who’s kept good three year old handicap company this season and has been dropped a couple of pounds since he last ran. Franny Norton rides for Richard Fahey. 

BLIND BEGGAR  1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5^th 12345

 

Ascot 300

It’s not often you get to bet a 118 rated horse in a handicap but that’s what we can do here in the 7F Moët & Chandon International Stakes. Top weight Motakhayyel was ultra impressive when scooting clear of his field in the Banbury Cup on fast ground at Newmarket’s July meeting a fortnight ago and despite the handicapper reacting by putting him up 9lb to his new mark of 118 he can race here under a 3lb penalty and thus 6lb well in. This will be the last time we seen him in handicaps and as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate is worth a decent bet. Richard Hannon’s gelding comfortably holds 7 of his opponents today on that run and may have most to fear from the 10lb well in Matthew Flinders who’s drawn alongside the selection in stall 19 (I would prefer to be drawn high as at the Royal meeting that did seem the place to be). His 2nd at Chester sandwiched between higher rated horses prompted the future rise from the handicapper but that was on good to soft ground and a totally different track to Ascot’s. Danyah is the other prominent in the betting that should get a mention. He ran a stormer at the Royal meeting when chasing home Highfield Princess in the Buckingham Palace Handicap for which he’s been raised 5lb. Of the double figure priced horses the only three year old in the field Star Of Orion makes some appeal but for me as long as the ground doesn’t soften to worse than good (although he did win the 2020 Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap over course and distance on officially good to soft ground) the favourite Motakhayyel will be hard to beat. 

MOTAKHAYYEL (no bet on soft or worse) 3 points each way @ 5/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 12345

 

 

York 315

The Group 2 Skybet York Stakes has attracted a small but select quintet of horses and although it’s hard to believe that either of the outsiders Bangkok and Montatham will be good enough to win you can certainly give the other three a winning chance. Juan Eleanor is only 2lb off of the top rated here Armory and comes here on the back of a listed win at Ascot in the Wolferton Stakes although he has failed to win a group race in six attempts. Armory has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his impressive Huxley Stakes win at Chester in May and was not disgraced when finishing only 1 1/2L behind stable mate Love in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. He has to give 12lb to William Haggas’s three year old Mohaafeth and that may be beyond him. Unbeaten in his four starts this year the Frankel colt had a rough ride round in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot before asserting and winning by 1 3/4L in the end. He looks classy and is the one to beat here as long as the ground remains fast. He was pulled out of the Derby on the day due to the easy ground so we must tread a bit cautiously in case the ground changes dramatically. 

MOHAAFETH 4 points win @ 6/5

 

Ascot 335

This year’s Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes looks a stellar renewal despite only 6 declaring. That may well come down to 5 if proven mudlark Wonderful Tonight doesn’t get her preferred soft ground. The ground once again is a factor here as Love wouldn’t want any softening of conditions whilst Epsom Derby winner Adayar would appreciate some of the wet stuff. Chuck in Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle, global jet setter Mishriff who appeared to blow up in the Eclipse last time out not forgetting Group 1 winner and Love’s stable companion Broome and you have the ingredients of a real classic. Let’s hope the rain doesn’t ruin the race. Preference for me is the O’Brien runner Love although if the ground went soft then my allegiance would switch to Adayar and so with doubts regarding the ground I’ll have a small win stake on Love. 

LOVE 2 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

 

Difficult day !! Just the one return and a loss today of 15 1/2 points

[fd1972uk]

Well that was a bit meh, did have a little double that also fell to pieces. 

Last bet runs later Ham Solo Berger, remember it ran quite well before and well I love Star Wars, lol. 

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, The Brigadier said:

Difficult day !! Just the one return and a loss today of 15 1/2 points

Same here, very frustrating day, 1 winner 5 seconds 3 thirds 5 losers for me and capped of with my decision to not back Bangkok at 20/1 when I had the chance and then left the race alone. An observation though, Rain or no rain was irrelevant for both of us in the end. Do we put too much importance on "ground"? personally i always suspect its a convenient excuse for me being wrong in my selection. I would rather blame a jockey like the ride Mohaafeth was given by Crowley who does that far too often for me, don't know about you but i would have been livid had i backed it.

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Same here, very frustrating day, 1 winner 5 seconds 3 thirds 5 losers for me and capped of with my decision to not back Bangkok at 20/1 when I had the chance and then left the race alone. An observation though, Rain or no rain was irrelevant for both of us in the end. Do we put too much importance on "ground"? personally i always suspect its a convenient excuse for me being wrong in my selection. I would rather blame a jockey like the ride Mohaafeth was given by Crowley who does that far too often for me, don't know about you but i would have been livid had i backed it.

Ground is the single most important thing in my eyes when assessing a race - if the ground isn't right I'll pass. And yes Crowley was piss poor on Mohaafeth !!

[calva decoy]

3 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Ah well that's went south pretty quickly, lol. 

If the last 2 on my lucky15 come up it'll cover my bet, but not holding much hope. 

Each to their own but doing 4 singles will generally give you more chance of a return than a bookie bet ie a Lucky 15 / Yankee etc albeit not as big a return if all 4 do come in which lets face it doesn't happen often & sometimes 2 winners doesn't get your stake back !

[calva decoy]

9 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Ground is the single most important thing in my eyes when assessing a race - if the ground isn't right I'll pass. And yes Crowley was piss poor on Mohaafeth !!

Agree on the ground , I picked horses for good going at Ascot last night after going on weather app & looking at around 6/7 hours if steady rain , I was disappointed to see a dry night & upcoming Goodwood looks like it'll be very tricky to assess going day before that's if you like to get on early to attain a better price ?

[fd1972uk]

5 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Each to their own but doing 4 singles will generally give you more chance of a return than a bookie bet ie a Lucky 15 / Yankee etc albeit not as big a return if all 4 do come in which lets face it doesn't happen often & sometimes 2 winners doesn't get your stake back !

This actually crossed my mind during it. 

As said has great returns but very hard to pull off, at tight odds one horse can have you evens right away. 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much time today.  Big fields and I suggest small stakes

The big race 3.35 Asc seems to indicate the favourite but I'm not playing.  I would love to see Adayar win this.

2.40 York Blind Beggar £2 win at 8.2 = £21.17 if it wins. Influenced by @TheBrigadierand Jason Weaver on The Opening Show

3.00 Asc Motakhayyel £1 win ins bet at 9/2 @TheBrigadier, Starshiba £1 win at 20/1 Jason weaver (TOS) and Raising Sand £1 win at 25/1 (me)

Total Stakes £5.00

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Great to see Adayar win; broke a 20 year dry spell of a Derby winner winning the King George, I believe.  pity I didn't at ;least put in as a nap.

No winners but Blind Beggar got 3rd so at least it was a trier

A small loss of £6.00 today so my new balance is £732.63  (Bank £1056.22)

Three UK meetings tomorrow.  I counted only 6 races for classes 1 - 3 and four of them have short priced favourites.  

There were quite a few shocks today with short priced favourites so I am wondering if anyone has found a set of conditions that are a reliable guide as to whether one will at least get a good run for one's money when betting on the favourite in any type of race?

 

[MCLARKE]

Potential areas where favourites have proved profitable in the past on the flat are : -

Class 1 races

Over 1m 4f

Age 5

Last ran within 4 days

3lb claimers