Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June

[The Brigadier]

Day 2 of the Royal meeting will again be run on very fast ground though the threat of heavy thunderstorms might mean a change in going from Thursday onwards. Winners were scarce on Day 1 but todays card looks a bit more punter friendly and here’s my thoughts.

 

Ascot 230

The 5F Queen Mary for 2yo fillies has attracted a strong field of 22. Wesley Ward appears to have sent over a strong plane load of sprinters this year but to be honest it’s very hard to get a handle on them and as for betting purposes its probably best to look elsewhere. His runner here is Twilight Gleaming  but what her 7 1/2L win at Belmont Park amounts to is anyone’s guess. Aidan O’Brien is always to be feared with his 2yo fillies and is represented here by Yet who got up in the last strides in win a Dundalk maiden from Orinoco River on her debut. There shouldn’t be much between them though the better value may actually lie with the latter who’s double the price. Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora won the Marygate at York last time (runner up Canonized won at Windsor on Monday night) and should be thereabouts but it’s the filly that was 4th in that race that caught my eye that I want to be with today. Mas Poder was making her racecourse debut in a listed race which gives you an idea of how highly her stable of Kevin Ryan think about her and she was only 2L behind the winner that day having blown the start and also been hampered close home. With normal improvement she can turn that form around and put herself in the mix at a nice price. 

MAS PODER 1 point each way @ 18/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

 

305 Ascot

The Queens Vase is now run over 1m 6F and I’m pretty keen on the favourite here in the Aidan O’Brien trained Wordsworth. He ground out victory in a Curragh maiden on his debut in April and then was turned over when an odds on chance in a listed contest over just short of today’s trip by stable mate Sir Lucan, who is a promising colt himself. A full brother to St Leger winner Kew Gardens he’s going to love this trip and further in time and is the main bet in the race. Mark Johnstone has a stable full of promising 3 year old stayers and his Dancing King comes here on a five timer having progressed through the ranks and is probably the best each way bet in the race though for me it’s all about Wordsworth to win a race his trainer has won 4 of the last 6 years. 

WORDSORTH 1 1/2 points win @ 10/3 Unibet

 

340 Ascot

The Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes can go the way of the William Jarvis trained Lady Bowthorpe who I honestly believe if she was trained by a O’Brien or Gosden would be pushing in at being an even money poke. She’s done nothing wrong this season beating her chief rival today Queen Power a head in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her re-appearance before running her best her run when being the only horse to give any sort of a race to Palace Pier in the Lockinge at Newbury pulling some 5 1/2L clear of the remainder. Her main threat here is her old rival Queen Power trained by Sir Michael Stoute who was impressive at York last time. 

LADY BOWTHORPE 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

420 Ascot

A smart but very much select field of 7 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes run over 10F. It features the return of the super mare Love, winner of the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks last season before missing her end of season target in Paris due to the heavy ground. Ryan Moore has presumably chosen her over her smart stable mate Armory although he has ‘picked’ wrong on several occasions this seasons including in two classics. Armory is a serious horse himself who impressed at Chester and must go well here. Lord North won this first time out last season and is training well and it will be a shock if the winner doesn’t come from that trio. With fitness on his side I’ll stick with the O’Brien 2nd string Armory who will be ridden by Ballydoyle super sub Seammie Heffernan although it would be no shock were any of the big three to win. 

ARMORY 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Ascot 500

A maximum field of 30 assemble for the Royal Hunt Cup and as always its fiendishly hard to crack. I can pass on a good word for the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Real World who’s a vey big price and whatever you’re backing here I would make sure that he is part of the staking plan. Over the past 10 years high numbers have been the place to be although it’s not set in stone so I’ll try not to get to bogged down with the draw and just find the best horse although on Tuesdays evidence high numbers were coming out best on the straight track. Irish Admiral would be the pick if drawn high but stall 6 worries me so for my main bet I’ll be with the Sir Michael Stoute trained Astro King who’s berthed in stall 27 and looks to hold as good a chance as any. 

ASTRO KING 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5 12345 

REAL WORLD ½ point each way @ 33/1 BetVictor 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 535

Another maximum field of 28 go to post, this time for the 5F Windsor castle Stakes, a listed race for 2 year olds. Once more we have a shortish price favourite of Wesley Ward’s that’s had the one run/win in a maiden at Keeneland winning a 3 runner maiden by 6L from a subsequent winner Argos (runs in Queen Mary at 2.35). It’s impossible to know how good that form is and at around the 7/2 mark I’m looking elsewhere. Ward also runs Golden Ball with stable jockey John Velazquez on board who also won a 3 runner maiden on the dirt this time at Keeneland. The Aidan O’Brien runner is Amalfi Coast but he’s tongue tied here and was all out to win his maiden at Cork, if he wasn’t trained by O’Brien I feel he would be double his current price of 10/1. Th least three winners of this race have been won horses drawn 22,24 & 20 so maybe that’s the place to be (stands side) and it maybe worth a small ew interest in the Hugo Palmer trained Dig Two, a winner at Newmarket and Chelmsford this season under James Doyle who retains s the ride. He’s speedy and will appreciate the drop back to 6F and has drawn stall 25. 

DIG TWO 1 point each way 12/1 Bet365 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 610

The Kensington Palace Handicap completes Day 2 over 1m and with 18 fillies and mares going to post over the round mile the draw will be very important as those drawn out wide in the high numbers will be at a disadvantage. Sir Michael Stoute’s Lights On would probably have been the selection as she’s working very well but even with Ryan Moore on top has a mountain to climb from stall 17 here and is overlooked although her latest form line may point us towards the winner. Lights On beat Ed Walker’s Dreamloper at Ascot last time just by a short head and with Walker’s filly faring better with the draw in stall 8 can turn the tables around on 1lb better terms under Oisin Murphy. Stunning Beauty also comes into the equation as does the lightly raced Ffion although she has to prove herself on fast turf. 

DREAMLOPER 1 ½ points each way @ 13/2 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

[Zilzalian]

Bit of ew profit yesterday 2yo speed figures. Todays 2yo Queen Mary stakes there is only a couple of points between 10 of them.

so ew bets at prices are a good option

1 beautiful sunshine 119           18/1

2 Yet                          118 (aw) 12/1

3 Coup de force        118           100/1

Additional speed ratings - Windsor castle stakes, proviso=you take a view on the ward runners as they dont equate very well but appear moderate.

1 Dig two 129 (aw) 124 turf      15/2

2 Barging through    128           16/1 from 33's

3 Chipotle                 128-         25/1

Edited June 16, 2021 by Zilzalian
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