Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June

[The Brigadier]

Day 2 of the Royal meeting will again be run on very fast ground though the threat of heavy thunderstorms might mean a change in going from Thursday onwards. Winners were scarce on Day 1 but todays card looks a bit more punter friendly and here’s my thoughts.

 

Ascot 230

The 5F Queen Mary for 2yo fillies has attracted a strong field of 22. Wesley Ward appears to have sent over a strong plane load of sprinters this year but to be honest it’s very hard to get a handle on them and as for betting purposes its probably best to look elsewhere. His runner here is Twilight Gleaming  but what her 7 1/2L win at Belmont Park amounts to is anyone’s guess. Aidan O’Brien is always to be feared with his 2yo fillies and is represented here by Yet who got up in the last strides in win a Dundalk maiden from Orinoco River on her debut. There shouldn’t be much between them though the better value may actually lie with the latter who’s double the price. Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora won the Marygate at York last time (runner up Canonized won at Windsor on Monday night) and should be thereabouts but it’s the filly that was 4th in that race that caught my eye that I want to be with today. Mas Poder was making her racecourse debut in a listed race which gives you an idea of how highly her stable of Kevin Ryan think about her and she was only 2L behind the winner that day having blown the start and also been hampered close home. With normal improvement she can turn that form around and put herself in the mix at a nice price. 

MAS PODER 1 point each way @ 18/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

 

305 Ascot

The Queens Vase is now run over 1m 6F and I’m pretty keen on the favourite here in the Aidan O’Brien trained Wordsworth. He ground out victory in a Curragh maiden on his debut in April and then was turned over when an odds on chance in a listed contest over just short of today’s trip by stable mate Sir Lucan, who is a promising colt himself. A full brother to St Leger winner Kew Gardens he’s going to love this trip and further in time and is the main bet in the race. Mark Johnstone has a stable full of promising 3 year old stayers and his Dancing King comes here on a five timer having progressed through the ranks and is probably the best each way bet in the race though for me it’s all about Wordsworth to win a race his trainer has won 4 of the last 6 years. 

WORDSORTH 1 1/2 points win @ 10/3 Unibet

 

340 Ascot

The Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes can go the way of the William Jarvis trained Lady Bowthorpe who I honestly believe if she was trained by a O’Brien or Gosden would be pushing in at being an even money poke. She’s done nothing wrong this season beating her chief rival today Queen Power a head in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her re-appearance before running her best her run when being the only horse to give any sort of a race to Palace Pier in the Lockinge at Newbury pulling some 5 1/2L clear of the remainder. Her main threat here is her old rival Queen Power trained by Sir Michael Stoute who was impressive at York last time. 

LADY BOWTHORPE 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

420 Ascot

A smart but very much select field of 7 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes run over 10F. It features the return of the super mare Love, winner of the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks last season before missing her end of season target in Paris due to the heavy ground. Ryan Moore has presumably chosen her over her smart stable mate Armory although he has ‘picked’ wrong on several occasions this seasons including in two classics. Armory is a serious horse himself who impressed at Chester and must go well here. Lord North won this first time out last season and is training well and it will be a shock if the winner doesn’t come from that trio. With fitness on his side I’ll stick with the O’Brien 2nd string Armory who will be ridden by Ballydoyle super sub Seammie Heffernan although it would be no shock were any of the big three to win. 

ARMORY 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Ascot 500

A maximum field of 30 assemble for the Royal Hunt Cup and as always its fiendishly hard to crack. I can pass on a good word for the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Real World who’s a vey big price and whatever you’re backing here I would make sure that he is part of the staking plan. Over the past 10 years high numbers have been the place to be although it’s not set in stone so I’ll try not to get to bogged down with the draw and just find the best horse although on Tuesdays evidence high numbers were coming out best on the straight track. Irish Admiral would be the pick if drawn high but stall 6 worries me so for my main bet I’ll be with the Sir Michael Stoute trained Astro King who’s berthed in stall 27 and looks to hold as good a chance as any. 

ASTRO KING 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5 12345 

REAL WORLD ½ point each way @ 33/1 BetVictor 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 535

Another maximum field of 28 go to post, this time for the 5F Windsor castle Stakes, a listed race for 2 year olds. Once more we have a shortish price favourite of Wesley Ward’s that’s had the one run/win in a maiden at Keeneland winning a 3 runner maiden by 6L from a subsequent winner Argos (runs in Queen Mary at 2.35). It’s impossible to know how good that form is and at around the 7/2 mark I’m looking elsewhere. Ward also runs Golden Ball with stable jockey John Velazquez on board who also won a 3 runner maiden on the dirt this time at Keeneland. The Aidan O’Brien runner is Amalfi Coast but he’s tongue tied here and was all out to win his maiden at Cork, if he wasn’t trained by O’Brien I feel he would be double his current price of 10/1. Th least three winners of this race have been won horses drawn 22,24 & 20 so maybe that’s the place to be (stands side) and it maybe worth a small ew interest in the Hugo Palmer trained Dig Two, a winner at Newmarket and Chelmsford this season under James Doyle who retains s the ride. He’s speedy and will appreciate the drop back to 6F and has drawn stall 25. 

DIG TWO 1 point each way 12/1 Bet365 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 610

The Kensington Palace Handicap completes Day 2 over 1m and with 18 fillies and mares going to post over the round mile the draw will be very important as those drawn out wide in the high numbers will be at a disadvantage. Sir Michael Stoute’s Lights On would probably have been the selection as she’s working very well but even with Ryan Moore on top has a mountain to climb from stall 17 here and is overlooked although her latest form line may point us towards the winner. Lights On beat Ed Walker’s Dreamloper at Ascot last time just by a short head and with Walker’s filly faring better with the draw in stall 8 can turn the tables around on 1lb better terms under Oisin Murphy. Stunning Beauty also comes into the equation as does the lightly raced Ffion although she has to prove herself on fast turf. 

DREAMLOPER 1 ½ points each way @ 13/2 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

[Zilzalian]

Bit of ew profit yesterday 2yo speed figures. Todays 2yo Queen Mary stakes there is only a couple of points between 10 of them.

so ew bets at prices are a good option

1 beautiful sunshine 119           18/1

2 Yet                          118 (aw) 12/1

3 Coup de force        118           100/1

Additional speed ratings - Windsor castle stakes, proviso=you take a view on the ward runners as they dont equate very well but appear moderate.

1 Dig two 129 (aw) 124 turf      15/2

2 Barging through    128           16/1 from 33's

3 Chipotle                 128-         25/1

Edited June 16, 2021 by Zilzalian
additions

[The Equaliser]

My bit of Royal Ascot fun.

2.30 Yet (RM) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46

3.05 Dancing King (SDS) £2.20 win at 10.5 = £20.48

3.40 Queen Power (SDS) £3.50 at 7.0 = £20.58.  Has a good chance of beating Lady Bowthorpe over 1f less this time

4.20 No bet.  Can't see any play at all in this race

5.00 Finest Sound (AA) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46

5.35 Flaming Rib (RK) £2 win at 24 = £45.08

6.10 Mostly (come on Frankie make it 7) £2.50 win at 10.0 = £22.05

Total stakes £14.20

Good luck to all, whatever you do, just don't invest too much or else it could all end up in tears

[calva decoy]

We have the distinct chance of a complete going change tomorrow & Friday with from 9 o'clock tonight & literally over the next 2 days loads of rain / storms forecast on BBC weather , could even be Soft by Friday , a bonkers thought !

[alancraik]

todays top rated Ascot Selections

3:05 - Kemari (close second Dancing King)
3:40 - Lady Bowthorpe
4:20 - Love

 

[Offramp]

If it gets hotter the going will be "flinty".

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My bit of Royal Ascot fun.

2.30 Yet (RM) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46

3.05 Dancing King (SDS) £2.20 win at 10.5 = £20.48

3.40 Queen Power (SDS) £3.50 at 7.0 = £20.58.  Has a good chance of beating Lady Bowthorpe over 1f less this time

4.20 No bet.  Can't see any play at all in this race

5.00 Finest Sound (AA) £2 win at 14.5 = £26.46

5.35 Flaming Rib (RK) £2 win at 24 = £45.08

6.10 Mostly (come on Frankie make it 7) £2.50 win at 10.0 = £22.05

Total stakes £14.20

Good luck to all, whatever you do, just don't invest too much or else it could all end up in tears

I was hoping to find a Trixie at the other meetings today but could not see anything strong enough.  Ben Curtis has a lot of rides at Hamilton but there are too many ifs and buts about his shorter priced selections for my liking.  I have had a bet on some outsiders listed below and that's me done for today.  I will put my feet up and watch Ascot later ?

4.25 Ham Zenzero (BC) £3 win at 7.8 = £19.99 if it wins

7.0 Rip Mystery Show (PM) £2 win at 10/1

9.00 Rip Catherine's Girl (PH) £1.15 win at 18/1 (poss return £21.85)

8.23 Chelms Too Shy Shy ((MC5) £2 win at 18.10 = £33.52

8.53 Chelms Liklion (LC7 not impressive, but horse could be) £2 win at 11.5 (um 9.6)

This brings poss total stakes to £24.35 (not bad for a full day's racing)

 

 

 

 

 

[roger2256]

June +17 

1 pt level stakes win only 

15.05 Ruling 14/1 

Prices as of now b365 

[Zilzalian]

Bit of an observation from this quarter-Audarya a horse that won at the breeders cup, not only that but if you watch the french race that Tarnawa (one of this years Arc favs) won, you will notice Audarya was arguably unlucky. but the point i am making is that Audarya has been 14/1 all week is now 9/1 even with the withdrawal of lord north. win lose or draw that was/is some price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

2.30 Ascot - Mas Poder @ 18/1

Clearly highly thought of having made her debut in a listed race at York, up against some smart fillies with experience and winning form. She was a huge eyecatcher that day, showing good speed throughout and whilst still being inexperienced, knuckled down well late on to not be beaten far. I thought she was the one to take out of the race and with natural improvement for the outing, looks a big price here.

3.05 Ascot - Arturo Toscanini @ 12/1

Weak in the market but will still chance the O'Brien second string here. He's run two good races out of three but generally looks pretty slow over 1m2f - staying on having been outpaced for 2nd when last seen in a decent race over in Ireland. Looks very much like he'll come into his own over further (full sibling is a 2 mile winner) and whilst he has to prove himself on quicker ground (flop at Newmarket can't solely be put down to that), I think he's overpriced here.

3.40 Ascot - Champers Elysees @ 17/2

Has to bounce back from a low key start to this season but she should be spot on fitness wise now and if returning to the form of last season, she'd have a favourite's chance here. She clearly goes on deep ground but she's got an excellent turn of foot and I just wonder if she doesn't want a slog like she had last time out. This quicker ground and less emphasis on stamina could just suit and I'll chance her based on that.

4.20 Ascot - Sangarius @ 16/1

Clearly has a bit to find and things need to drop right for him but he's definitely smart on his day. I think he'll be ridden close to the pace here in a small field and does have the speed to quicken from the front, with his best career performance coming at this track. Not sure he was fully wound up at Chester when behind Armory and floundered having set a quick pace on soft ground at Sandown last time. Was picked up by Euchen Glen there but went like the winner and that horse ran really well yesterday on unsuitable ground so the form looks okay. Could be a bit of a funny race with an uncertain gallop and I just think this horse is worth a small go at the price.

5.00 Ascot - Irish Admiral @ 16/1 and Ouzo @ 50/1

Concerned about the draw for Irish Admiral but I think he's sure to win a good race soon - was caught out of his ground at Epsom last time and couldn't ever really get involved but I'm happy to forgive him that considering the promise he showed at York the time before. Travelled all over them over 1m2f that day and although not finding as much as it looked like he might, looked a good horse and the return to a mile on quick ground today should suit. 

I wouldn't be surprised if high draws dominated, however, and I'm going to give Ouzo a chance each-way from under the stands rail. I hope he returns to front-running tactics here after a no-show when last seen and he's pretty consistent in this sort of race without winning and could just go well at a huge price.

5.35 Ascot - Spring is Sprung @ 20/1

The Wesley Ward runner may again prove too speedy but the royal runner looks overpriced to me having won well at Windsor last time with a couple of horses in behind going on to run big races since. This one is a half sibling to Collinsbay and Kings Lynn so ought to be a smart sprinter in time and looks like an improving sort who will come on again for its effort when last seen. 20/1 looks a big each-way price.

6.10 Ascot - Dalanijujo @ 28/1

Wide open race which looks to have plenty of pace in it so I expect them to go a good gallop here and that could bring the best out of Mick Channon's runner who has been operating at a lower level but is a free-going sort who looks best over a stiff mile with a strong pace to run off. Has to step up on its latest win but the handicap mark isn't climbing out of reach and at a price I can see it going well.

[black rabbit]

Escobar   5 00 ascot  1/2 pt win  @  50/1 betfair 

brunch    5 00 ascot  1/2  pt  win  @ 17/1  betfair   taken yesterday

Layfayette   5 00 Ascot  1/2 pt win  @  26/1  betfair 

Lola Showgirl   6 10  ascot   1/2 pt win  @  14/1  betfair 

 

P/L  =   +  93 pts          bit unlucky recently     2nd  @   50/1    and  2nd @  25/1    in last couple weeks  

good luck to all 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Ripon 8.30

MAYWAKE 13/8

[Ironjoe]

Ascot 

2.30 nymphadora 10/1 1pt ew and jazzy princess 100/1 1pt ew (7 places)

3.05 arturo toscanini 12/1 1pt ew (5 places)

3.40 agincourt 16/1 1pt ew (4 places)

5. Layfayette 20/1 1pt ew and bell rock 33/1 1pt ew (8 places)

5.35 kaboo 6/1 1pt win

6.10  dreamloper 4/1 2pt win

All skybet so no BOG 

Good luck ? 

[Tedthewolf]

HUNT CUP

I really think we ain't seen the best of REAL WORLD 25/1 e/w 8places not bog  has been runing on the dirt in Dubia over longer than todays trip runs off a fair looking mark for first turf run   very decent claimer takes 3lb off  goes in  blinkers frist time and also trying a mile for the first time  could be a real dark horse here and may be a horse worth following i think the other world horse (eastern)  also owned by godolphin could allso go well at a big price  but my 2nd selection is  Irish trained BOWERMAN 66/1 e/w  8places not bog last years Irish liincoln winner looks a massive price to hard to resist at that price for 8 places.

[Tumbleweed King]

2-30 Royal Ascot

Choux (E/W) was subject of a monumental gamble when making her debut at Thirsk last month. She was backed all the way in from 40's into 100/30 and won as she liked. Someone clearly knew she was ahead of her game and no surprise if she takes another significant steop forward here. David Evans may not be the most fashionable of trainers, but he can get them to run up sequences and this daughter of Exceed And Excel will love the lightning quick ground. Shane Kelly retains the ride having won on her last time and she is open to any amount of improvement. She looks a decent each way contender.

3-05 Royal Ascot

Kemari (E/W) showed significant improvement from his debut to win comfortably at Yarmouth last time in a quick time. Quick into his stride, he inflicted a six length defeat onto Fantasising, who was always playing catch-up having missed the break. Still only lightly raced compared to a few of these, but there is undoubtledly further improvement to come. Will Buick is back on board the son of Dubawi and the pair can go close in a field that may not be the strongest.

3-40 Royal Ascot

Lavender's Blue (E/W) has only half a length to find with Lady Bowthorpe based on their most recent encounter at Newmarket last month in the Dahlia Stakes. First time cheekpieces may offer some encouragement to her followers that she can narrow or even reverse that defecit. She absolutely loves to hear her hooves rattle the ground as she proved when winning at Sandown last summer under Jim Crowley, who is on board yet again this afternoon. The slight step back to a mile is certainly in her favour and this five-year-old daughter of Sea The Stars can make an impact.

4-20 Royal Ascot

Love went without defeat last season and this immaculately bred daughter of Galileo looks hard to oppose. The 1000 Guineas heroine is a veteran of these group one races now and also scored convincing victories at Epsom and York last season. She has gone well fresh in the past and Ryan Moore bids to to record his fifth win on her today. She is versatile trip wise and has won her races from a mile right up to a mile and a half. Aidan O'Brien is likley to have her cherry ripe and she can obliterate the opposition.

5-00 Royal Ascot

Trais Fluors (E/W) has taken his time to find his feet since joining Mick Channon from Kevin Condon, but he did the job nicely when winning for the first time in two years at Sandown just last Saturday. All of his best work came in the closing stages and Silvestre De Sousa readily assumed command on him when the gaps came. This marks a quick turnaround for the seven-year-old, but he is clearly showing no ill effects of that recent spin. He has what could be a useful draw in stall 28 and will be dangerous to all if in the same vein of form.

5-35 Royal Ascot

Armor (E/W) looks set to improve again despite winning on debut for Richard Hannon and Ryan Moore at Doncaster last time. He always travelled strongly in the four-runner affair and should have learned plenty for the experience. Try as they might, his rivals could not cope with his turn of foot in the closing stages and he ran out a ready winner. Being a son of No Nay Never, he ought to relish this faster surface and Pat Dobbs should get a good tune out of him.

6-10 Royal Ascot

Declared Interest (E/W) may have only won a class four race at Leicester last day, but that came on the back of a 214 day absence. This lightly raced four-year-old filly has obviously improved over the winter and spring and now bids to record her third win on the bounce. She has stamina in abundance having won over as far as a mile and a quarter, so expect plenty of use to be made of her. A big step up in class, but she is worth a crack at it and should give a bold account.

 

[yossa6133]

Quite a move on Kaboo in the 5:35 Ascot (50/1 into 6/1), unraced so not much to go on! But I've followed the money with a small bet at 6/1.

[azzybear]

agincourt 3.40

[azzybear]

my Oberon 4.20 Ruthin 5.35 tomorrow's dream 6.10

[azzybear]

fame and aclaim 5.00 ew

[Wildgarden]

23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Day 2 of the Royal meeting will again be run on very fast ground though the threat of heavy thunderstorms might mean a change in going from Thursday onwards. Winners were scarce on Day 1 but todays card looks a bit more punter friendly and here’s my thoughts.

 

Ascot 230

The 5F Queen Mary for 2yo fillies has attracted a strong field of 22. Wesley Ward appears to have sent over a strong plane load of sprinters this year but to be honest it’s very hard to get a handle on them and as for betting purposes its probably best to look elsewhere. His runner here is Twilight Gleaming  but what her 7 1/2L win at Belmont Park amounts to is anyone’s guess. Aidan O’Brien is always to be feared with his 2yo fillies and is represented here by Yet who got up in the last strides in win a Dundalk maiden from Orinoco River on her debut. There shouldn’t be much between them though the better value may actually lie with the latter who’s double the price. Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora won the Marygate at York last time (runner up Canonized won at Windsor on Monday night) and should be thereabouts but it’s the filly that was 4th in that race that caught my eye that I want to be with today. Mas Poder was making her racecourse debut in a listed race which gives you an idea of how highly her stable of Kevin Ryan think about her and she was only 2L behind the winner that day having blown the start and also been hampered close home. With normal improvement she can turn that form around and put herself in the mix at a nice price. 

MAS PODER 1 point each way @ 18/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

 

305 Ascot

The Queens Vase is now run over 1m 6F and I’m pretty keen on the favourite here in the Aidan O’Brien trained Wordsworth. He ground out victory in a Curragh maiden on his debut in April and then was turned over when an odds on chance in a listed contest over just short of today’s trip by stable mate Sir Lucan, who is a promising colt himself. A full brother to St Leger winner Kew Gardens he’s going to love this trip and further in time and is the main bet in the race. Mark Johnstone has a stable full of promising 3 year old stayers and his Dancing King comes here on a five timer having progressed through the ranks and is probably the best each way bet in the race though for me it’s all about Wordsworth to win a race his trainer has won 4 of the last 6 years. 

WORDSORTH 1 1/2 points win @ 10/3 Unibet

 

340 Ascot

The Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes can go the way of the William Jarvis trained Lady Bowthorpe who I honestly believe if she was trained by a O’Brien or Gosden would be pushing in at being an even money poke. She’s done nothing wrong this season beating her chief rival today Queen Power a head in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her re-appearance before running her best her run when being the only horse to give any sort of a race to Palace Pier in the Lockinge at Newbury pulling some 5 1/2L clear of the remainder. Her main threat here is her old rival Queen Power trained by Sir Michael Stoute who was impressive at York last time. 

LADY BOWTHORPE 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

420 Ascot

A smart but very much select field of 7 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes run over 10F. It features the return of the super mare Love, winner of the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks last season before missing her end of season target in Paris due to the heavy ground. Ryan Moore has presumably chosen her over her smart stable mate Armory although he has ‘picked’ wrong on several occasions this seasons including in two classics. Armory is a serious horse himself who impressed at Chester and must go well here. Lord North won this first time out last season and is training well and it will be a shock if the winner doesn’t come from that trio. With fitness on his side I’ll stick with the O’Brien 2nd string Armory who will be ridden by Ballydoyle super sub Seammie Heffernan although it would be no shock were any of the big three to win. 

ARMORY 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Ascot 500

A maximum field of 30 assemble for the Royal Hunt Cup and as always its fiendishly hard to crack. I can pass on a good word for the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Real World who’s a vey big price and whatever you’re backing here I would make sure that he is part of the staking plan. Over the past 10 years high numbers have been the place to be although it’s not set in stone so I’ll try not to get to bogged down with the draw and just find the best horse although on Tuesdays evidence high numbers were coming out best on the straight track. Irish Admiral would be the pick if drawn high but stall 6 worries me so for my main bet I’ll be with the Sir Michael Stoute trained Astro King who’s berthed in stall 27 and looks to hold as good a chance as any. 

ASTRO KING 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5 12345 

REAL WORLD ½ point each way @ 33/1 BetVictor 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 535

Another maximum field of 28 go to post, this time for the 5F Windsor castle Stakes, a listed race for 2 year olds. Once more we have a shortish price favourite of Wesley Ward’s that’s had the one run/win in a maiden at Keeneland winning a 3 runner maiden by 6L from a subsequent winner Argos (runs in Queen Mary at 2.35). It’s impossible to know how good that form is and at around the 7/2 mark I’m looking elsewhere. Ward also runs Golden Ball with stable jockey John Velazquez on board who also won a 3 runner maiden on the dirt this time at Keeneland. The Aidan O’Brien runner is Amalfi Coast but he’s tongue tied here and was all out to win his maiden at Cork, if he wasn’t trained by O’Brien I feel he would be double his current price of 10/1. Th least three winners of this race have been won horses drawn 22,24 & 20 so maybe that’s the place to be (stands side) and it maybe worth a small ew interest in the Hugo Palmer trained Dig Two, a winner at Newmarket and Chelmsford this season under James Doyle who retains s the ride. He’s speedy and will appreciate the drop back to 6F and has drawn stall 25. 

DIG TWO 1 point each way 12/1 Bet365 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 610

The Kensington Palace Handicap completes Day 2 over 1m and with 18 fillies and mares going to post over the round mile the draw will be very important as those drawn out wide in the high numbers will be at a disadvantage. Sir Michael Stoute’s Lights On would probably have been the selection as she’s working very well but even with Ryan Moore on top has a mountain to climb from stall 17 here and is overlooked although her latest form line may point us towards the winner. Lights On beat Ed Walker’s Dreamloper at Ascot last time just by a short head and with Walker’s filly faring better with the draw in stall 8 can turn the tables around on 1lb better terms under Oisin Murphy. Stunning Beauty also comes into the equation as does the lightly raced Ffion although she has to prove herself on fast turf. 

DREAMLOPER 1 ½ points each way @ 13/2 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

great work as always

[Zilzalian]

19 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Bit of ew profit yesterday 2yo speed figures. Todays 2yo Queen Mary stakes there is only a couple of points between 10 of them.

so ew bets at prices are a good option

1 beautiful sunshine 119           18/1

2 Yet                          118 (aw) 12/1

3 Coup de force        118           100/1

Additional speed ratings - Windsor castle stakes, proviso=you take a view on the ward runners as they dont equate very well but appear moderate.

1 Dig two 129 (aw) 124 turf      15/2

2 Barging through    128           16/1 from 33's

3 Chipotle                 128-         25/1

158/1 forecast for this punter there hope a few others took notice.

[The Brigadier]

On 6/15/2021 at 6:02 PM, The Brigadier said:

Day 2 of the Royal meeting will again be run on very fast ground though the threat of heavy thunderstorms might mean a change in going from Thursday onwards. Winners were scarce on Day 1 but todays card looks a bit more punter friendly and here’s my thoughts.

 

Ascot 230

The 5F Queen Mary for 2yo fillies has attracted a strong field of 22. Wesley Ward appears to have sent over a strong plane load of sprinters this year but to be honest it’s very hard to get a handle on them and as for betting purposes its probably best to look elsewhere. His runner here is Twilight Gleaming  but what her 7 1/2L win at Belmont Park amounts to is anyone’s guess. Aidan O’Brien is always to be feared with his 2yo fillies and is represented here by Yet who got up in the last strides in win a Dundalk maiden from Orinoco River on her debut. There shouldn’t be much between them though the better value may actually lie with the latter who’s double the price. Andrew Balding’s Nymphadora won the Marygate at York last time (runner up Canonized won at Windsor on Monday night) and should be thereabouts but it’s the filly that was 4th in that race that caught my eye that I want to be with today. Mas Poder was making her racecourse debut in a listed race which gives you an idea of how highly her stable of Kevin Ryan think about her and she was only 2L behind the winner that day having blown the start and also been hampered close home. With normal improvement she can turn that form around and put herself in the mix at a nice price. 

MAS PODER 1 point each way @ 18/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

 

305 Ascot

The Queens Vase is now run over 1m 6F and I’m pretty keen on the favourite here in the Aidan O’Brien trained Wordsworth. He ground out victory in a Curragh maiden on his debut in April and then was turned over when an odds on chance in a listed contest over just short of today’s trip by stable mate Sir Lucan, who is a promising colt himself. A full brother to St Leger winner Kew Gardens he’s going to love this trip and further in time and is the main bet in the race. Mark Johnstone has a stable full of promising 3 year old stayers and his Dancing King comes here on a five timer having progressed through the ranks and is probably the best each way bet in the race though for me it’s all about Wordsworth to win a race his trainer has won 4 of the last 6 years. 

WORDSORTH 1 1/2 points win @ 10/3 Unibet

 

340 Ascot

The Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes can go the way of the William Jarvis trained Lady Bowthorpe who I honestly believe if she was trained by a O’Brien or Gosden would be pushing in at being an even money poke. She’s done nothing wrong this season beating her chief rival today Queen Power a head in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her re-appearance before running her best her run when being the only horse to give any sort of a race to Palace Pier in the Lockinge at Newbury pulling some 5 1/2L clear of the remainder. Her main threat here is her old rival Queen Power trained by Sir Michael Stoute who was impressive at York last time. 

LADY BOWTHORPE 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

420 Ascot

A smart but very much select field of 7 go to post for this year’s renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes run over 10F. It features the return of the super mare Love, winner of the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks last season before missing her end of season target in Paris due to the heavy ground. Ryan Moore has presumably chosen her over her smart stable mate Armory although he has ‘picked’ wrong on several occasions this seasons including in two classics. Armory is a serious horse himself who impressed at Chester and must go well here. Lord North won this first time out last season and is training well and it will be a shock if the winner doesn’t come from that trio. With fitness on his side I’ll stick with the O’Brien 2nd string Armory who will be ridden by Ballydoyle super sub Seammie Heffernan although it would be no shock were any of the big three to win. 

ARMORY 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Ascot 500

A maximum field of 30 assemble for the Royal Hunt Cup and as always its fiendishly hard to crack. I can pass on a good word for the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Real World who’s a vey big price and whatever you’re backing here I would make sure that he is part of the staking plan. Over the past 10 years high numbers have been the place to be although it’s not set in stone so I’ll try not to get to bogged down with the draw and just find the best horse although on Tuesdays evidence high numbers were coming out best on the straight track. Irish Admiral would be the pick if drawn high but stall 6 worries me so for my main bet I’ll be with the Sir Michael Stoute trained Astro King who’s berthed in stall 27 and looks to hold as good a chance as any. 

ASTRO KING 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5 12345 

REAL WORLD ½ point each way @ 33/1 BetVictor 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 535

Another maximum field of 28 go to post, this time for the 5F Windsor castle Stakes, a listed race for 2 year olds. Once more we have a shortish price favourite of Wesley Ward’s that’s had the one run/win in a maiden at Keeneland winning a 3 runner maiden by 6L from a subsequent winner Argos (runs in Queen Mary at 2.35). It’s impossible to know how good that form is and at around the 7/2 mark I’m looking elsewhere. Ward also runs Golden Ball with stable jockey John Velazquez on board who also won a 3 runner maiden on the dirt this time at Keeneland. The Aidan O’Brien runner is Amalfi Coast but he’s tongue tied here and was all out to win his maiden at Cork, if he wasn’t trained by O’Brien I feel he would be double his current price of 10/1. Th least three winners of this race have been won horses drawn 22,24 & 20 so maybe that’s the place to be (stands side) and it maybe worth a small ew interest in the Hugo Palmer trained Dig Two, a winner at Newmarket and Chelmsford this season under James Doyle who retains s the ride. He’s speedy and will appreciate the drop back to 6F and has drawn stall 25. 

DIG TWO 1 point each way 12/1 Bet365 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 610

The Kensington Palace Handicap completes Day 2 over 1m and with 18 fillies and mares going to post over the round mile the draw will be very important as those drawn out wide in the high numbers will be at a disadvantage. Sir Michael Stoute’s Lights On would probably have been the selection as she’s working very well but even with Ryan Moore on top has a mountain to climb from stall 17 here and is overlooked although her latest form line may point us towards the winner. Lights On beat Ed Walker’s Dreamloper at Ascot last time just by a short head and with Walker’s filly faring better with the draw in stall 8 can turn the tables around on 1lb better terms under Oisin Murphy. Stunning Beauty also comes into the equation as does the lightly raced Ffion although she has to prove herself on fast turf. 

DREAMLOPER 1 ½ points each way @ 13/2 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

A profit of 9.2 points on the day mainly due to Real World's success in the Hunt Cup.

[cannotbebeat]

9.00 Ripon Morty 3/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[ipswich45]

must praise Uttoxeter today   myself and Trainmad091 went today and very quick entry no queuing system at all,  plenty of security and course staff around the main areas dealing with social distancing and indoor face coverings    

[MCLARKE]

I think I'll wait until things return to normal before I go back to the races, all this track and trace nonsense and wearing masks even makes going to the pub seem like a chore rather than a pleasure. Now all the vulnerable are vaccinated it's about time we were allowed our freedom back.

[ipswich45]

Uttoxeter did track and trace via online booking forms so nothing actually taken on the day apart from barcode scan on the ticket, masks only had to be worn inside and most on course bookmakers were offering both cash and card payments  but the food vendors and bars were card only 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I was hoping to find a Trixie at the other meetings today but could not see anything strong enough.  Ben Curtis has a lot of rides at Hamilton but there are too many ifs and buts about his shorter priced selections for my liking.  I have had a bet on some outsiders listed below and that's me done for today.  I will put my feet up and watch Ascot later ?

4.25 Ham Zenzero (BC) £3 win at 7.8 = £19.99 if it wins

7.0 Rip Mystery Show (PM) £2 win at 10/1

9.00 Rip Catherine's Girl (PH) £1.15 win at 18/1 (poss return £21.85)

8.23 Chelms Too Shy Shy ((MC5) £2 win at 18.10 = £33.52

8.53 Chelms Liklion (LC7 not impressive, but horse could be) £2 win at 11.5 (um 9.6)

This brings poss total stakes to £24.35 (not bad for a full day's racing)

 

 

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Not even a whiff of a winner for me at Royal Ascot.  Too Shy Shy got second at 25/1 with Mark Crehan aboard which would have got me out of trouble had it won.  Ben Curtis  did get a treble at Hamilton but I'm not sure that I would have put the first three rides in a Trixie

A another straight loss today, this time £24.35.  This means that my new balance is £840.93 (Bank £1056.22); over £200 down on my opening balance.  

Four flat meetings in the UK tomorrow; we will have to wait until tomorrow to find out about any significant changes to the going at the turf meetings.  Whatever it is I can't do any worse ?  

 

 

[Wildgarden]

6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

Not even a whiff of a winner for me at Royal Ascot.  Too Shy Shy got second at 25/1 with Mark Crehan aboard which would have got me out of trouble had it won.  Ben Curtis  did get a treble at Hamilton but I'm not sure that I would have put the first three rides in a Trixie

A another straight loss today, this time £24.35.  This means that my new balance is £840.93 (Bank £1056.22); over £200 down on my opening balance.  

Four flat meetings in the UK tomorrow; we will have to wait until tomorrow to find out about any significant changes to the going at the turf meetings.  Whatever it is I can't do any worse ?  

 

 

i got punished by richard hughes horse too against shy shy

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

i got punished by richard hughes horse too against shy shy

Hopefully you backed it each way; something I seldom do as this is a seperate bet imo and I struggle to find the benefit of it.  I know that Rupert seems to be OK with ew bets

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

2.30 Ascot - Instinctive Move @ 15/2 - well on top at the finish at Bath despite running against some solid yardsticks with experience. Hit the line hard which is important in races such as this today and its dam was most progressive, including being decent at 2, so lots to like with natural improvement from first to second run.

 

3.05 Ascot - Secret Protector @ 22/1 - clearly held by the favourite on the form of last time out but worth remembering that this one was odds on to win that day and suddenly there's a huge chasm between the prices. This one doesn't have a great deal of pace but gallops on and the way this race is set up should suit better. Its form from two starts back is strong, I think any rain that does fall will definitely help and I can see him making the frame.

 

3.40 Ascot - Twisted Reality @ 10/1 - loads of these competed at Newbury on their most recent start and I thought Twisted Reality looked the one who would improve most for the extra two furlongs today. Was outpaced before staying on powerfully late on from a beaten position and given the stamina on her dam's side, this test should really suit. Is quite a big filly so should come on plenty for that run and I think she can turn the tables on those that finished ahead of her that day.

 

4.15 Ascot - Princess Zoe @ 28/1 - hasn't had the rain that she would have liked but not going to pile into Stradivarius and not sure any of the others appeal at the prices so will chance that she can outstay a few of these and potentially make the frame. If the rain falls today, the better chance she has of doing so.

 

5.00 Ascot - Mithras @ 11/2 - a very unoriginal selection and I'll probably play one at a bigger price closer to the off but Mithras has rock solid form in the book including when beating Movin Time in a novice race. Beat Saint Lawrence (who franked the form next time) at Newbury over 7f when shaping like a mile was ideal and he just floundered a bit when keen on soft last time out in a listed race. There's still scope off this mark under these conditions and with a clear run I think he wins this, for all it's a mammoth field.

 

5.35 Ascot - Surefire @ 6/1 - is well treated under a penalty for winning 10 days ago and looks sure to win again off his new mark so I think it's time to strike while the iron is hot. Was second to Siskany a couple of starts back which makes this mark look decent and then won readily over 1m2f on handicap debut. Is from a family of strong stayers so will improve further for the extra yardage and looks rock solid here.

 

6.10 Ascot - Danyah @ 10/1 - Consistent type who has shaped like 7f would really suit in good races of late. Needs the splits but sure to be there on recent evidence.