Racing Chat - Friday 4th June

[The Brigadier]

Day one of the two day Cazzo Derby Festival at Epsom and with a good forecast the ground is likely to be riding on the fast side of good.Here’s my thoughts on the card. 

Epsom 2.00

The Woodcote Stakes opens the Epsom Derby meeting and can go to the Michael Bell trained Dairerin from an inside berth. He has to prove his effectiveness on a sound surface as both his runs so far have been on good to soft ground but he does have the best piece of form to hand in his neck second to Richard Hannon’s Dukebox with the favourite and subsequent comfortable Chester winner Al Shibli a length and a half further back in third. Oisin Murphy was on board that day for Michael Bell’s colt and is reunited here and has an excellent chance. George Boughey has had a great season with his 2 year olds and his Oscula shouldn’t be dismissed lightly here and can chase the selection home. 

DAIRERIN 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

Epsom 2.35

Favourite Irish Admiral ran well last time at York and is undoubtably the one to beat here but there maybe better each way value in taking local trainer Simon Dow’s entire to cause an upset. His last 12 outings have been on the all weather but he’s always run well here with his course figures reading 17231218 so he should be suited by this tricky turning course. Luke Morris has won on him before and gets the ride here with the main negative the outside draw in 10 meaning he may well have to drop in and come late. He’s won off of 85 before all be it on the all weather and can race here off of a pound lower so is certainly weighted to run well. 

CORAZAN ESPINADA 1.5 points each way @ 14/1 1/5^th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Epsom 3.10

It’s not often you see a horses win a race, let alone a group race as easily as William Haggas’s 4 year old did in the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes at Newbury three weeks ago after which his trainer stated this was his next target. The ground will be a bit faster today but he did impress when winning the John Porter also at Newbury on good ground earlier in the season and he really does look the finished article this year. Jim Crowley knows him well and he looks the one they all have to beat. Aidan O’Brien saddles full brothers Japan and Mogul but it may be Willie Muir & Chris Grassick’s Pyledriver who chases the selection home in this years renewal of the Coronation Cup.

 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 10/11 Bet365

 

Epsom 3.45

If we go back to the April meeting here and the City And Suburban Handicap run over course and distance we saw Victory Chime come home 1 1/4L clear of Sky Defender with the winner now 4lb higher but the race would have been a whole lot different if Ryan Moore and the David Menuisier trained Blue Cap had managed to find a passage through. It was an unlike Moore ride and the horse literally finished on the bridle. The horse was well supported when heading to York next time where in the trainers words he lost the race before the start when he got very agitated and ran with the choke out the whole way having nothing left to give at the business end. Obviously there’s the chance he may well do the same again but he’s fitted with a hood today and has actually been dropped a pound plus the assistance of champion jock Oisin Murphy.  Data Protection like this track having won 2 of his 5 starts here and is an outsider that can out run his odds. 

BLUE CAP 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

Epsom 430

It can be a red letter day for owner Shadwell Stud who can follow up Al Aasy’s Coronation Cup victory with success in this season’s Cazoo Oaks run over the Derby distance  of 1m 4F with one of the two Roger Varian trained fillies Zeyaadah. She comes here only 4lb off of the highest rated runner which is Saffron Beach and was very unlikely not to win the Cheshire Oaks a month ago at Chester when not having the clearest of runs and finishing 1L behind Dubai Fortune who re-appears here today on 3lb worse terms. Aidan O’Brien runs five here with likely favourite Santa Barbara appearing to be the best of that quintet though she appeared to struggle with the dip at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas in which she was 4th and has a few questions to answer especially at her cramped odds.

The Musidora at York was a good trial with O’Brien’s Snowfall , ridden here today by Frankie Dettori , making all and stealing a march on his rivals. Back in 3rd that day was Zeyaadah’s stable mate Teona who lost her race when getting upset in the stalls and running with the choke out. She’s hooded today which may help but comes with her quirks by the look of it and it’s Zeyaadah for me although she does have to overcome a potentially tricky draw in stall one. 

ZEYAADAH 2 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

 

Epsom 510

The highest rated here by 2lb Archie Watson’s Mehmas colt is the form horse and dropping back to 7F looks the one they all have to beat. Having won a couple of small races on the fibresand at Southwell he stepped up dramatically when making the smart Chindit pull out all the stops when going down by a neck in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April over today’s distance of 7F. The winner went on to run a credible 5th in the 2000 Guineas and a reproduction of that effort should suffice to see this Holly Doyle ridden 3 year old bay home safely. 

MEHMENTO 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill

 

Epsom 540

Another excellent purchase by that professional outfit fronted by the Dixon brothers The Horsewatchers who paid just 23,000 Guineas for this gelded son of Tertitories last October and have already that all back plus more by winning at Beverley and Goodwood. Latterly in a decent grade 2 contest where he was given an excellent ride from Silvestre De Sousa who rides danger Dulas here. James Doyle is a more than able deputy and he looks good each way value in an open handicap. 

RHOSCOLYN 1.5 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

[Zilzalian]

I much respect @The Brigadier and the way he researches his races and draws his conclusions but an alternative viewpoint is always handy and we may get a few forecasts between us so here are my selections. prices at time of posting.

200 my speed figures suggest 1st Dusky Prince 6/1 2nd raging 8/1.

235 super fast last time out Storting 11/2

310 the fastest speed figure i have on my database for 1m4F is Japan 3/1 when it beat Slalom in France, anywhere near that will destroy this lot.

345 think i will go with CD form as this race are all much of a muchness which is the idea of handicaps so Data Protection 10/1

430 Not impressed with this lot for an Oaks looks more like an ordinary listed handicap to me but can see a Varian 1st & 2nd here Zeyaadah 11/2 seems a good option with Save the Forest a good each way option (backed at 66/1) now 33/1

510 get your darts out

5.40 Arigato 12/1 looks a sneaky bet at a good price.

Good luck people.